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hcrof

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  1. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Murz wrote another post. Apart from link to fresh Girkin video he wrote about pre-war LDNR experience with advisers from RU MOD. I translated it in full as a comparison between officers of LDNR hardcore volunteer units and RU regulars.
    But if you are not interested in the subject it can be safely skipped (LDNRs are good, RU regulars are very bad)
     
  2. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Girkin ranted about Kadyrov threat that West is pushing RU to start full scale war. He believes the real cause is something went wrong with Third Effective Phase of SMO (what I call victory offensive) [HIMARS?]. 
    His next rant is below (I cut paragraph with ranting about RU Navy Parade preparation)
    I need to add that according to my conversation with people, the nationalist part of the population is waiting till September/October when cold kicks in and put some sense into Europeans [direct quote]. So, support for UKR will stop and they will surrender. Probably that's what RU MOD is waiting for as well.
    Also, if Girkin is right then the new RU offensive preparation has stalled probably due to HIMARS. That's why RU MOD decided to hold on instead and Kadyrov was called to fill the wait. 
  3. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    RUMINT from unanimous RU commander regarding current CB
     
    He continues with comments about RU similar equipment
     
    By the way, RU sorrow state of CB radars was confirmed by Naval "Girkin" (Klimov) he said [checking my notes]:
    [Klimov] Claim USSR had difficulty making CB radar capable of detecting artillery shell (not mortar one) [in flight]. The majority were detecting explosions (splash) so were useful only for fire adjustment. Normal CB radar USSR produced only before collapsing (Zoopark 1 in RU, Zoopark 2 in UKR). However, according to real world experience, it is considered a failure.  It is so bad that Klimov said that the only quick solution is to modify radars of Tor and Pantsir.
    P.S. RU military power is comparable to West only in RU propaganda and minds of naive ignorant people (see my description of how RU propaganda dupe people)
  4. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yeah, at least the same Kamyana Mohyla (Stone Grave) - the rock outcrop in Zaporizhzhia steppes near Melitopol with 4000 BC pertoglyphs or 5500 years "Ukrainian Stonehenge", found in 2021 near Dnipro in Novooleksandrivka village

     
  5. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Interview of UKR Reserve Colonel, military expert Roman Svitan
    Part 3
    A turning point in the war
    After Ukraine started using HIMARS, a turning point in the war came UKR counteroffensive is already happening. it is carried out by small counteroffensive actions. This mode is called pushing End of the war can end by the end of the year With the current pace of arms supplies and training it is realistic to liberate the entire territory of Ukraine by the end of the year. Important point regarding counter offensive:
    Military expert Roman Svitan - It's already happening. As soon as HIMARS entered Ukraine, we launched a counteroffensive, which is carried out by small counteroffensive actions. This mode is called pushing. And we will continue to do so. As such, there will be no powerful counteroffensive, which everyone is talking about Military observer Konstantin Mashovets - advice to all do not expect WWI or WWII scale operations with massing of armor, infantry, huge artilelry bombardments and human-wave assaults. He said this is model of past wars and despite Russia continue to stick on them, but UKR rejected this and will try to play in modern methods of warfare. He named this "gradually softening" of enemy defense, using advantage in ISR and precise striking assets. Ground operations will have tactical purposes... So, no deep maneuvers but softening the enemy (including deep operational strikes) with tactical pushes. 
  6. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    According to Konstantin Mashovets, the number of Russian BTGs, which were withdrew to the rear for rest and replacemnts increased on four for last days and reached 27.
    Last BTGs, whithdrawn to the rear: one BTG of 55th MBR, one BTG of 74th MBR (both from Kramatorsk direction), two BTGs of 102nd MRR of 150th MRD (Bakhmut axis)
    Also he wrote today big article about future UKR offensive and advice to all do not expect WWI or WWII scale operations with massing of armor, infantry, huge artilelry bombardments and human-wave assaults. He said this is model of past wars and despite Russia continue to stick on them, but UKR rejected this and will try to play in modern methods of warfare. He named this "gradually softening" of enemy defense, using advantage in ISR and precise striking assets. Ground operations will have tactical purpose and more mass actions will take place only in final phase, when such conditions will be created, that Russians will be forced to withdraw, like in April during expelling of Russians from the north. Russians should be put between withdraw and save own lifes or to die, trying to execute typical Russian order "Fight with shovels if no ammo! This is our land  - no step back!"
    He also wrote, "classical" warfare with rugged defense and mass assaults happened on Donbas and Izium zxis because Russians concentrated overhelming advantage in forces there and could impose this type of war to Ukrainan forces. But I personally can add - UKR agreed to this challenge, having strong fortified lines - in this case, taking into account geographical factor, UKR troops just can't play in "flexible defense" like on the north, else Russian tanks already would came to Dnipro  
     
  7. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    RU Nat impressions from "liberated "Lisichansk
     
  8. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Today Girkin commented about police checking on Murz (somebody wrote complaint and police checked his residence permit address). What is more interesting though, he confirmed that the FSB team most likely caused the disappearance of Alexei Selivanov.
    Selivanov is hardcore UKR traitor who was working as RU policeman at recently captured territories. Being traitor, he is extremely hardcore and cannot be satisfied with anything less than the destruction of UKR. And according to rumors he disappeared after the visit of a special team from Moscow. Later somebody claiming to be him posted in telegram message Wow, friend it was just food poisoning, I am in hospital but left my phone in the office!
    This RU Nats cleanup is another indication that Putin is planning to offer a compromise.
     
  9. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I thought hard about your comment, and I can offer the following deep and very important belief system that could really motivate RU soldiers.
    RU are indoctrinated into national superiority. Not to the extreme like Germans in WW2 but still very strongly. The idea of losing to untermensch UKR have catastrophic consequences to insecure RU mind (not for Nats only). Because they consider themselves ubermensch they bully to death everyone who they consider to be untermensch. Losing to untermensch means they will themselves become untermensch and will be bulled to death. Very serious motivation.
     
    There was an interesting comment from Khodakovsky after the end of the operation. He said that there was severe moral issue in units that were defending but in assaulting units moral was extremely high despite big losses.
    So, given what I said above we can conclude that attacking and pushing UKR back RU solders confirm their existing belief in RU innate superiority over UKR innate inferiority. That keeps their moral high and allows them to fight despite big losses.  
     
    I have huge respect for you and look forward to your opinion. That's what i like about this forum - we discuss issues from different angles and different points of view.
    Because after thinking about what you said I have to admit you are probably right. But that means UKR sucess in Kherson (aka RU collapse and subsequent gesture of goodwill) depends on whether UKR can keep RU defensive there and humiliate them with deep strikes long enough to deprive them of superiority feeling.
    Now I would like to go back to your comment regarding the puzzling lack of operational maneuvers in this war. It became too dangerous. But what if maneuvering to enemy rear for him to collapse is not the only option now.? What if we can force it by precise strikes shaping his rear to our needs? 
    Why push tanks/IFVs forward to cut LOC and risk losing them if we can wreck his rear? Enemy LOC will be useless if we demolish his warehouses, his vehicle maintenance depots and put all logistical avenues under arty and AT missiles fire. 
    What's if an operational deep striking is a new operational maneuver?
  10. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    One of the Lobaev brothers (owners of the only RU company that produces long range sniper rifles) describes what he saw at the front line:
  11. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Nobody in RU except marginal Nats believes in RU propaganda 100%. Even hardcore LDNR volunteers say it more for public consumption (in private they are far more reasonable than on public. They just need to say something to cover their war crimes). On average RU believe 50% of propaganda, so Nazies translates in to spoiled and dumb people who were duped by heinous westerners (which is very believable because of RU indoctrination of Forteses under Siege and Inferiority of Other Nations mentality).
    Regarding Manifest Motherland Destiny outside of RU hardcore Nats it is not much. They might talk much but talking and putting your ass in danger is very different. Motherland Destiny sounds hollow in RU because there is a reason Schevchuk said Motherland is braggard old lady at train station selling potatoes.  
    There is also funny side - in RU Kherson literally sounds like [very rude] penis sleep but not in good way, like [here is] penis [for you] instead of sleep. So, I defended Kherson sound extremely funny and laughable. Not a very honorable place to defend. 
  12. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As an example of what RU thinks here is typical RU "war analytics"
    They are thinking UKR is about to collapse. They just need to hold on a little bit longer.
  13. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    First, RU put a lot of propaganda effort into portraying UKR side as bloodthirsty. Plus keep in mind that enraged UKR soldiers did do a nasty thing to RU solders. So, the whole topic is not as simple as we might think. 
    But apart from that it is pretty much the same as with other armies - Mobiks and a significant part of RU Regulars will try to run but cornered will surrender. Hardcore RU/LDNR are unlikely to surrender, and they will try to make a stand but trust in high command is low. So, they most likely will fight through damn the cost to get back to LDNR.  
    Finally, i see indication that hardcore LDNR volunteers are not in Kherson area. They do expect there will be a big party in Kherson, but it looks like they are staying in LDNR. If it is true, it means UKR will face only hardcore RU and they will put more effort to fight but still prefer surrender.
    It is all about hope. The vast majority of RU regulars are aware of Maykop "brigade" last stand at train station and VDV company at hill 776. It was glorious only for RU high command and soul breaking for everybody else. 
  14. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @The_Capt @Battlefront.com
    So, what changed from enemy side on Kherson direction according to Konstantin Mashovets info. 
    Russian comamnd is really concerning about anounced UKR offensive on Kherson and continue to saturate this area with reinforcements. 
    Previous reinforcements about which I wrote here about dozen days ago, played own stabillizing role - Russians could stop UKR advance in most problem zone in triangle Arkhanhelske - Vysokopillia - Novovoznesenske. In particular, they repelled attempts of UKR trrops to develop own success after liberating of Potiomkyne village in direction of Novovoznesenske to choke supply of Vysokopillia. Also enemy troops reiforced own "red thin line", defending positions from Myroliubivka along T2207 road and to Zolota Balka on the bank of Dnieper. UKR troops recently was conducting probes from Osokorivka to Zolota Balka, so this forced enemy to move additional troops and in this backwater district. Thus, in present time in this northern sector Russian troops have 7-8 BTGs of 205th MRB (almost in full composition), 34th MRB (mountain), 11th air-assault brigade, 10th Spetsnaz brigade and aditionally to this 7-8 BTGs they have here at least two rifle battalions of LDPR conscripts.
    Going south. This is sector of UKR attempt of Inhulets crossing: Velyka Oleksandrivka - Davydiv Brid - Snihurivka. As I've written recenty, Russians could completely stabilize situation here. Units of UKR 36th marines brigade and 28th brigade withdrew behind Inhulets back after several weeks of desperate Russian counter attacks and artillery shellings, but part of bridgehead in the bend of Inhulets between Lozove  - Velyke Artakove - Bila Krynytsia - Bilohirka still under UKR control. In this place Inhulets has become shallow, so troops can cross through the fords. Our artilelry and ATGMs continue to shell enemy through the river, Russians do the same, but they didn't do any visible actions to take this remains of bridgehead. In this area Russians have now about 5-6 BTGs from 7th air-assault division (moutntain) and 1-2 "shortened" BTG, combined from different motor-rifle units of 49th CAA. Two weeks agor Russians hd here 6-8 BTGs, but two BTGs (one of them likely from "firemen team" of 11th air-assault, but I can be wrong) Russian command moved from this sector futher to the south, where due to UKR tactic now appeared new flash of UKR activity - Kyselivka area.   
    Separately some words about southern point of this sector - Snihurivka. Small town, which plays important role, approaches to which Russians turned out in heavy fortified place. Since my previous post, no significant activity here - both sides are making probes and hammerd each other with artillery. UKR troops have not yet been able to crack Russian defense here.      
    Next zone is Kherson-Berislav area. Russians have here 7-8 BTGs from 126th coastal defense MRB, 127th recon brigade, 33rd and 255th MRRs of 20th MRD, probably 11th air-assault brigade.   + two battalions of LDRP conscripts. In this area in last days UKR troops could advance northern from Blahodante and Kyselivka, but Russian troops, using reinforcements are continuing to counter atatck from Shmidtove on Liubomyrivka - Ternovi Pody section, trying to break through here and to come in the rear to our grouping, which advance aside M-14 road. This forced our troops to slow down and to turn own left flank toward the enemy. Though, situation can turn out in such way, that Russian spearhead in Shmidtove can get our troops in own rear too and here about two weeks we canm see limited tactical actions like a game who takes the back of opponent faster. Russians have plans on Shmidtove area, because in case of success they will receive good start positiosn to jump on Posad-Pokrovske - Shevchenkove section, pumping this area with troops and repeating own offensive on Mykolaiv. 
    Exactly on this part of own defense Russians in last several days moved almost all own reserves, concentrated recently on left bank - 2 BTGs of 4th military base (occupied Abkhazia),  BTG of 429th MRR + combined tactical group of 42nd MRD (moved from Zaporizhzhia oblast), about 5 BTGs of 98th VDV division (moved from Luhansk oblast). Likely 1-2 BTGs of unknown units still in reserve on left bank. Except this Russians have been reinforcing own strike capabilities, moving here 3 tactical groups of MLRS in addition to 4 tactical groups of 944th SP-artillery regiment of 20th MRD of 8th CAA and 227th artillery brigade of 49th CAA
    Russian AD in this area also was reinforced - SAM battalion of S-300V and SAM battery of S-300VM were deployed in addition to SAM battalion (Buk M2) of 90th AD brigade of 49th CAA and SAM batteries of 1096th AD regiment (Osa-AKM) of 22nd Army Corps (Black Sea Fleet) and 358th AD regiment (TOR-M2) of 20th MRD
     Russians also conducted many engineer works along the roads and on positions. For this, additionally to sapper units of brigade/divisional level Russian comamnd moved here there tactical groups of 32nd engineer-sapper regiment of 49th CAA. 
  15. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to FancyCat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    wow some precise hits.
     
     
  16. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Panserjeger in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  17. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So Kherson...ooo boy.  Well first off, I am buying off on the whole "traitor" theory that Kherson was likely sold-out, that or the UA simply got stretched too thin but this is the major southern axis so I do not see how they did not prioritize it - maybe they did and Russians down this way actually demonstrated talent.  Why?
    Well because on paper this city should be damn near impossible to take from the South:

    By my eyes there are roughly 5 crossing sites that one can pull from Google.  The Dnieper is a deep old river so I cannot tell if there are any fording sites but I doubt it.  Wiki says the Dnieper runs at about 1.5 m/sec which is fairly slow and easily swimmable and pontoon-able.  However, Kherson is right on a major delta stretch, to the point that a second river breaks out called the "Konka" (sp?).  Anyway this is a major water obstacle, like Rhine river "major".  The river itself ranges from 500-1000m but that is not the rub, it is the delta - that is a very angry and hungry looking swamp that looks like the mouth of a Dune Sandworm to mobility.  Sure you can pontoon the bridge but those wetlands look like they will eat Divisions, we are talking major road and causeway work in order to sustain.
    As I said there are 5 possible crossing sites: 
    -Starting on the far left, there is a possible amphibious run between Sofiivka and Rybal'Che but this is also a major undertaking.  That is a 12km run so we are basically talking D-Day but there is infrastructure on either side to support (I am not sure about the shoreline, would need to do an MSFS flight).
    - Then we have the Antonovskiy Bridge that the UA is currently turning into swiss cheese.  That is a 1000m crossing without the bridge and a lot of greenish looking swamp hell on the N bank.  Tough.
    - We then have what looks like a rail bridge called "Antonivsʹkyy Zaliznychnyy", not sure if it still up but it is about 6km upstream from the Antonovskiy.  If the UA did not blow that one up it will have to go as well (did a quick check but cannot see if it was already).
    - Next is what I think is the only decent amphib/pontoon site along this gawd-awful shoreline.  Just on the western outskirts of L'vov about 34 km up from the Antonovskiy there is what looks like a viable crossing site.  The south bank aint great but this is a hydro-electric line crossing so road infrastructure is there (note would have to do a second small bridging op about 1km to the east on a small inlet), which takes one up to an old monastery in Korsunka.
    - Last, is the road bridge at the Kakhovka hydro electrical station.  Looks modern and solid.
    After that further upstream the Dnieper expands out and although one could find a decent shore line we are basically back to D-Day.
    So What?  Well it is like Stalingrad, a city with it back to a major obstacle coming from the UA side.  All war is communication and retaking Kherson will send big political signals in all directions.  It would be a clear sign that the UA can do offensive in a major way, which should assist in shoring up the cottage-cheese spines of some in the West.  It would also be a major blow to Russia, effectively undeciding that entire front.  I am sure they will try and sell it as "we withdrew for the good of the people" noise but even the most doe-eyed Russian believer will have a seed of doubt planted.  
    So to the big question: how does the UA take Kherson? Well a couple schools of thought, first a Western solution:

    Coming from the Western School of Manoeuvre, the game here would be to cut off Kherson and choke it out, without having to do heavy urban combat.  So Shape, Manoeuvre, Isolate and Attrit would be the order of the day.  A big armored led spearhead thrust down from the North across all that wonderful tank country.  A bounce crossing on those two eastern sites, complete with SF, Airmobile snaps and then swing westward and cut the Russian LOCs completely.  Meanwhile keep the pressure on Kherson from the North, while using deep strike to Fix supporting forces.  Very nice, so long as one has air supremacy.  
    I will say it now, if the UA can do this, the war will be over much sooner than anyone thinks. As I have noted before, I have grown allergic to big bold strokes in this war.  The biggest issue, beyond establishing pre-conditions, is time-space-force.  That is about a 130 km thunder run and would likely take a couple modern heavy divisions to pull off, maybe three.  I do not think the UA has that kind of force, nor are they going to get the pre-conditions to support it.  I have no doubt that pundits will start drawing stuff like this...use it for profiling purposes.  I pray to god that the UA could pull off this offensive but I also do not think he is listening...very unlikely.  So what could a UA offense look like?

    Attrition-to-Manoeuvre, not the other way around.  The UA could compress Kherson and pull in a lot of RA in reaction.  With their superior ISR and deep strike they could do a lot of damage in depth - given the ranges, this whole thing at Antonovskiy could be a setup for ATACMS arrival.  If they start hitting EW, then UAS are also back on the menu.  As they compress Kherson, their artillery will pull in range as well.  As they pull and bleed the RA, an opportunity to do a North South offensive opens up but only take it to the bridge at the hydro-plant, while cutting every crossing.  You might bag the RA forces to the east.
    The major problem with this one is Kherson itself.  If the RA is trapped like rats, they will fight like them.  The UA could break itself in a city of that size (which they know after Mariupol).  My guess is that they will simply bleed the RA white here, hitting them once again along the entire length of the RA operational system.  This presents the modern dilemma of "stay and bleed out" or "withdraw, preserve force and lose the city", either way, so long as the UA can keep pulling the RA in and killing them in numbers while they try and hold onto Kherson it is a winnable situation.
    Key will be setting operational conditions and holding onto them.  Deep strike, deep strike and deep strike.  They need to keep hitting RA logistics to keep the RA guns silent and then the UA guns can go to work on the rest without fearing overwhelming c-btty.
    How is it actually going to go down...no idea.  In fact it might not happen at all, the whole thing could be a feint.  But one thing is for sure, it has got the Russians wondering.  And on the battlefield uncertainty on your opponent is a useful thing. 
  18. Upvote
    hcrof got a reaction from Artkin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Loving the guy that says 15cm of steel will protect the bridge - genius! Just give up trying to run vehicles on it as well 😂
  19. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @Battlefront.com FYI while checking news about DDT Shevchuk i noticed something interesting. Below is the official clip for his song Dead man. It looks like it is about current war - They said about clip: The plot of the clip came out ominous and infernal. It demonstrates a totalitarian society, where masked people with coffins walk through the streets, drowning in streams of blood. But in fact, it was published Jun 26, 2020.
     
    It looks like sensitive poetic Shevchuk noticed that Putin primed RU for the war two years ago. Which is just 6 months (time to make clip) after Nesmyan wrote: Year 19 is likely to be the last "quiet" year.
    The war was supposed to start around 20-21. Most likely Covid delayed it.  
  20. Like
    hcrof got a reaction from Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm on my phone but it looks like at least one of the main beams has been badly damaged(?), which will result in weight restrictions if true. Cars are not that heavy (car parks are very lightly built) but military vehicles might be more of a problem already.
  21. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Some news from mental asylum 
    Deputy of one of the Moscow municipal districts got 10 days of arrest due to a repost of New York Times article from 2 of May 1945 about Hitler death.  Distribution of extremist materials. Article 20.3 of the Administrative Code of the Russian Federation.
    The author of the original tweet posted the article with the word meaning: "It's time". However, he already escaped, so RU fascists came for the guy who reposted it.
     
    But the most mental case happened with RU legendary leader of legendary group DDT. During live concert in Ufa Yuri Shevchuk said: "Motherland, [my] friends, is not the president's ass, which you have to slabber and kiss all the time. The motherland is a beggar grandmother at the train station selling potatoes. This is the motherland" Immediately after the concert he was questioned and a case against him was started.  
    The hilarious part is that the judge is facing huge dilemma - he cannot rule for Shevchuk but ruling against him means judge and by extension RU gov believe that RU motherland is indeed the president's ass, which you have to slabber and kiss all the time.
    Well, they are transferring his case between departments back and forth delaying the court hearing. 
  22. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Almost the same role played our seals from 73rd Maritime Special opeartions Center in 2014. Though, during Debaltsevo battle they worked in one episode by own speciality - they destroyed the dam on small river, conducting some underwater works. 
    When our forces landed recently on Zmiinyi island, teams of 73rd MSOC and 801st  Detachment to Combat Underwater Sabotage Forces used micro-submarines to reach the shore and search approaches to the island for landing groups on Willard RIBs.
    On the photo - this group before or after Zmiinyi landing - micro-submarine in right lower corner and Willard, armed with M2 behind them

  23. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Civilian "Girkin" (Nesmyan) believes that Gazprome bluffs but to force Germany to move to Nord Stream 2
     
  24. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Civilian "Girkin" (Nesmyan) counted fresh local graves
     
  25. Upvote
    hcrof reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Girkin description of events 2014 Part 2
     
    From this description we can see that RU basically used criminals and useful idiots who thought about nothing more but federalization of eastern regions until it was too late.   
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