hcrof

Near Novopavlivka, Dnipropetrovsk oblast.
Helicopters of 12th Army aviation brigade. Two pilots killed.

There are rumors, sharply increased successes of Russian strikes in last two weeks it's not because their rised recon&strike capabilities, but because of possible information leakage from higher HQ level - all episodes were in Donetsk oblast or close  

RUS get to 3 [in fact 2- third fly away] Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopters. Everything observed from RUS drone. First, one missile with a cluster warhead flew (judging by the number of charges, Tornado rather than Iskander) and after two damaged machines could not fly away - single hits with precision ammunition.
Unfortunately, in the current conditions, the Russian reconnaissance and strike complex has achieved the efficiency it was expected to have before the war. In 2022, for many reasons, it did not work out, in 2023 it worked on average, but unfortunately this year we already see the mythical <5 minutes for HVT (high-value targets). Currently, there is no margin for error for Ukrainians. Of course, this is only the result of the fact that RUS drones fly 40-80 km at home in the Ukrainian hinterland.
Event took place 11.03; in one of helicopters both pilots were killed according to other Ukrianian channels (as always,treat his considerations with grian of salt whenc omes to details, but clip seems genuine. Early geolocation- 50km behind frontlines)
 
 

Russian city Volgodonsk on the east of Rostov oblast is under UKR UAV attack now. Sounds of machine-guns are heard. No information yet about results of atatck.
This city is a center of nuclear energy machine-building of Russia - Rostov nuclear power plant and two largest enterprises, producing 70 % of heavy equipment for nuclear energetic. Except this hydro power plant and two thermal power plants. Fat target. 
 

During Russian Iskander/KN-23 strike on Odesa port on 6th of March six UKR Naval Forces servicemen have died
 

Current situation in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts:
Russian border chekpoint Nekhoteyevka (Belgorod oblast), abandoned by Russian border guards.  Damaged and abandoned free-Russia tank under fire (somebody claimed this is a video of year-ago raid, but maybe later we will have more information)
LFR claims they still hold Tyotkino border settlment in Kursk oblast

Some locals in Belgorod oblast shared infromation Su-27 was allegedly shot down near Belgorod and fell down into forest (this is not IL-76 incident, because Ivanovo, where this plane crashed is in 760 km NE from Belgorod). Single video of probably crash site is a large smoke over the forest, but still no confirmation about jet falling
 

Crash site of IL-76, which fell down near Ivanovo. Some Russian TGs claimed that unknown passengers, who were onboard, were crewmen of A-50. Ivanovo-Severnyi airfield is a base of 610th Center of combat usage and flight personnel retrain, having in own composition IL-76 and A-50 planes, some of which are strored. If this is true, IL-76 crash can be a diveriosion to eliminate A-50 pilots and operators, which probably flew to bring into exploitation A-50, repaired from the storage to substitute previous losses
Reportedly (but not verified) in result of drone strikes on Beriyev aviation plant in Taganrog two A-50 (one of them - that which suffered from small drone attack in Belarus), staying under repar in hangar got additional damages and have taken out for unknown time.

Talking about sustainability and the importance of Western support, it is pretty clear that while Russia also spends an increasing percentage of its GDP, Ukraine is really in a bad spot economically. 6% is a lot but manageable, 20% isn't, at least not for too long.
And I think the situation is a bit worse than the graphic suggests. It appears like Ukrainian percentage GDP is high and volatile but not constantly going up. But that's assuming the GDP is growing by over 7% this year. They are apparently using the statista numbers (or have the same source) which look to me like a simple linear extrapolation from the years 2014-2023 (excluding 2021 as an outlier). And that sounds very optimistic to me.

This day was interesting not because of free-Russia troops crossed Russian border, but also huge simultainous drone attack on nine Russian oblasts. Obviously these were chains of one operation on eve of "Putin elections".
Most significant were strikes on oil storage in Oryol - at least one fuel tank was set on fire...
... And attack on "Lukoil" company oil refinery in Kstovo, Nizhniy Novgorod oblast in 800 km NE from closest point of UKR border. The drone precisely hit and set on fire the fractioning column, maintaning 53% of refinery output. This refinery also supplies about 30 % of gasoline in Moscow oblast.
 
UKR drones and MLRS again were launched on Belgorod
Reporteldy a drone with small warhead hit city administration building (2 employees were lightly wounded)

 

Wot Border Guards doin'? 
 

Agreed that NATO can choose not to export, but that would badly damage their reputation and I would be surprised to see many countries following France's example. I guess the point is that NATO is not at war but Russia is, so NATO might have more potential but not use it. 
Also both sides are importing shells from 3rd countries (often under the table), and both sides use various calibres. 
In other words it is really complicated and I don't think counting production numbers alone is a very good proxy for how many shells will be fired by both sides this year. Thankfully the NATO numbers are finally going up at a faster rate than Russia's so hopefully Ukraine will be at least stable soon with regard to the artillery balance. 

Golfcars also are used by Russians on Avdiivka direction
Situation here still very hard - despite we stabilized situation and our artillery likely got French shells, so reportedly our arty is working tough again, Russians continue own zomby-atatcks, so situation still dynamic and change often. 
Also some words about shells - servicemen tell in twitter they have enough mortar shells, but despite our arty increased own activity, the shells amount still not so proper as before shells shortage. If recently a battery in avarage fired 60-70 ammo for a day, now they can fire about 30 and during final phase of Avdiivka battle this number could be less 10.   
Just for nice picture - FPV has strruck Russian BMP and turned it out in hellish fireball. Likely it hit fuel tanks
 

Some summry for several days in Robotyne - Verbove pocket. 
Russians stopped intensive assaults, instead this moved here more "Shtrorm -Z/ -V" units, manned with convicts. They send them mostly on foot by small groups, but most of them are successfully eliminated on approaches. 
Sometime Russians throw to probes small armored groups, but they had the same fate - FPV drones and mortars/artillery work on them.
National Guard "Omega" special forces work at two Russian armor vehicles and infantry with AT-4 and AGL in vicinity of Robotyne
Russians in mass became to use here many ATVs - own domestic AM1, Chineese "Desertcross" and donated civilians. Despite some of UKR militaries jokingly called these vehicles GFV (Golfcar Fighting Vehicle), a serviceman from Robotyne in own tweet say this is veryu hard target - ATVs are very fast and maneuver - artillery and mortars can't target them, even for MGs and FPVs they are hard targets to aim. ATVs even not always blow up by mines, so this guy told UKR forces lost two small positions, because Russians rapidly came close on ATVs and bursted in the trenches. 
Though this ATV or small jeep wa not so lucky and blew up on mine
 
Also reportedly Russian deployed some powerful EW system near Robotyne, which when turns on blocks the video channel of FPV drones. 

Mother Of All Bowel movements 
 

Quoting this note only because it's the most recent one to touch on the naval warfare discussion and I wanted to add some thoughts to that.
On ideas for near-term development of Ukraine's naval drones:
The aim is to destroy the enemy's ability to wage war on the sea.  That will almost always mean that your target is the enemy ship, not the crew.  At the moment exposed enemy crew members are not effective at preventing USV attacks.  If you can get close to a ship you are therefore much better off pressing home a direct attack on said ship than you are trying to blow grapeshot into the face of some rube balancing an MG on the railings.  This will remain the case until exposed crewmembers become a significant threat to your attempts to approach the ship (unlikely to ever happen imo) or until you are able to kill so many crew, so efficiently as to make it a better way of neutralising the ship than sinking it (ditto). Modern warships are already pretty focussed on mitigating the dangers presented by enemy warships, ASMs and torpedoes - those are obviously well-established as primary threats.  To my mind then there is not much to be gained in terms of lethality by having USVs try to replicate those types of attack.  The Ukrainians' current success is being achieved by threading the eye of the needle between their drones not being torpedoes, ASMs or warships but having features of all three:  They are operator-guided and can see their targets from long distances like a warship or a missile and they cause damage on the waterline like various torpedoes or missiles can.  The fact they attack on the surface also means they are too low down for conventional anti-ASM defences to effectively target but they are too small and agile for anti-ship weaponry to hit reliably, either. Given the above, I think it's only a matter of time before this capacility gap slams shut and effective countermeasures to the current generation of Sea Baby-type drones are popularised (although whether the Russians will be the ones to do so seems bafflingly uncertain).  I've mentioned previously that I do think deployable netting/fencing could be an interim solution which could completely neutralise the current threat or at least significantly increase the number of successful attacks required to damage or sink a vessel. Longer term, I agree that naval drones will become platforms for torpedo-type weapons (correctly noted already as basically the best way to sink something otherwise designed to float).  Do we think future navies may start by looking to populate the oceans perhaps even exclusively with torpedo-toting, submersible drones?  Presumably they may spend time at the surface to charge batteries, cruise more efficiently and/or to communicate but what combat advantages, if any, would a drone have on the surface if there is no part of it that needs to breathe?
Even further hence, I wonder whether the ideal future naval drone might be capable of both flight and submersible operations?  Flight could be used for faster travel and to escape from enemy torpedoes; submersion would grant concealment, energy-efficient loitering, etc.  You then of course need to start on a 'torpedo' design that can follow a target into the air and potentially back underwater again.  Get a few of these machines fighting each other close to shore and you've got yourself a hell of a show, if nothing else!

Interesting if true. Would explain why SOF are in Africa. I never bought the Wagner storyline.
 

video of the attack on the landing ship Caesar Kunikov from the deck. Lots of MGs, not a lot of night vision by the looks of things. And it seems that maybe the seababy can take a few small calibre hits (modern inert explosive warhead?)
 

So I don't want to dogpile this, and to be honest what you said sounds good in theory. Having said that, US threats would have little credibility right now, large deliveries would have to be made. On top of that, those deliveries would likely not include large numbers of 155 shells since the whole world is running short of those at the moment. 
So that puts us in the position that the US government has finally mobilised to help Ukraine, so expectations are going to rise again - why not take another shot at victory? Maybe because they don't have the shells - well at that point the threat is not looking so bad for Russia after all so they continue, at least to get a better negotiating position. 
The sorts of coercive diplomacy that works on small, isolated countries does not work on a conflict of this scale and commitment. Both side are in too deep to back off now. 

I seem to remember from peruns last video he focussed more on artillery. Russian artillery quality is degrading from mostly SPG to older towed guns and they are beginning to run low on barrels. There are still loads of towed guns in store but many of them are very old indeed and can't take modern ammunition or are limited to 12km max range (dangerously close to the front line for a relatively immobile system and very vulnerable to drones). 

I seem to remember from peruns last video he focussed more on artillery. Russian artillery quality is degrading from mostly SPG to older towed guns and they are beginning to run low on barrels. There are still loads of towed guns in store but many of them are very old indeed and can't take modern ammunition or are limited to 12km max range (dangerously close to the front line for a relatively immobile system and very vulnerable to drones). 

I seem to remember from peruns last video he focussed more on artillery. Russian artillery quality is degrading from mostly SPG to older towed guns and they are beginning to run low on barrels. There are still loads of towed guns in store but many of them are very old indeed and can't take modern ammunition or are limited to 12km max range (dangerously close to the front line for a relatively immobile system and very vulnerable to drones). 

Fuel might be an issue, maybe. Money, maybe, but with something like 17%+ of GDP spent on the war there must surely be enough for the BSF. 
Even then, the lie is put to that by the direct example of Ukraine. Strong leadership always finds a way, and quickly.
Lazy, unimaginative and fearful leaders stall, prevaricate and rehash existing tactics and doctrine, to no avail. 
Thank God the BSF is led by domesticated goldfish, while Ukraine's naval war is led by sharks. 
 

I wonder if the issue is money - if the fleet budget is being plundered to pay for the land campaign they can't adapt ships and training easily, let alone develop a new drone force. On the other hand they need to demonstrate they are trying to do something to keep Putin happy so they put assets at risk (Russian attitude being you are not fighting if you don't take casualties anyway.) This is all compounded by remarkably poor leadership. 
This situation can't be stable though, surely the Russians will have to think of something eventually...
Edit: I imagine (with no evidence at all really) that the BSF can barely pay for fuel right now due to cut budgets, let alone more crew to man machine guns and searchlights. But they can't have the hard conversations with Putin to say the fleet needs to be mothballing ships to save money right now, not charging off to fight Ukrainians. 

The BSF is no joke in terms of firepower and is still a considerable force, but having destroyed the UKR Navy it lacks the organic units to perform the second of its two missions. First is control the open sea (nominally done, and but not really - in UKR grain exports are at/past pre war levels), second is control the littoral zone. (third would be support inland ground forces with ranged strikes). 
This course of the war, as with several other aspects, again reminds me of the Russo-Japanese War, specifically Port Arthur. Not a perfect analogy (nothing is) but similar pressures and operational/strategic pinch points. 
The BSF eradicated the UKR Navy as a fighting force but has failed to control the shores. Its ships are too vulnerable, its training and operational performance are abysmal but where it truly seems to fail is leadership. 
Operationally, the lack of basic fleeting/convoying and Air support around VIP units (cough Moskva cough Ropucha class cough) is just incredible. I mean, did these guys not read naval history at all ? Are they utterly bereft of any clue in how to deal with their enemy outside simplistic text books? 
These are old tactics, fully described in any naval warfare text. Old but effective. Even if they are not a full solution (because drones) they still increase the friction against any attack. Stack up the layers and attacks start to fail, or at the least the damage inflicted is lessened. I mean, do something . 
Are they not looking at current events and past losses? After so, SO many drone strikes why are their ships not bristling with HMGs and search lights? The Ukies do it on land, so it's absolutely possible. Why, when attacks begin are their ships not going full speed, maneuvering like mad and making work for the USVs? Why are helos not in the air, on call, strafing the USVs? Why don't they have their own drone ops onboard, striking back at USVs with FPVs? 
None of the above is hard or requires integrating new tech (drone ops are self contained). 
Seriously, wtf? 
Its impossible to control a hostile shore if you can't even protect your own units in harbour. 
But hey, if you need a family murdered in their home at night then these useless ****s are just who you want. 

I seem to remember from peruns last video he focussed more on artillery. Russian artillery quality is degrading from mostly SPG to older towed guns and they are beginning to run low on barrels. There are still loads of towed guns in store but many of them are very old indeed and can't take modern ammunition or are limited to 12km max range (dangerously close to the front line for a relatively immobile system and very vulnerable to drones). 

Background sound is old Norvegian folk song in version of Ukrainian medieval-folk group "Spiritual Seasons", who often played on our re-enactments events )