hcrof

New update from General Oleksandr Syrskyi:
https://t.me/osirskiy/650
 
 

It's became knowingly Russia used new missiles to hit Trypillia thermal power plant in Kyiv oblast two days ago. Recently it was considered were launched cruise misiiles Kh-101 type only, but now remains of Kh-69 were found. 
 

Kh-69 it's a deep modernization of "air-surface" Kh-59M missile, turned it into compact mid-range cruise missile similar to Storm Shadow. Kh-69 in first time was introduced in August 2022 and on Dubai Airshow in 2023. The missile has GLONASS/GPS guidance and DSMAC. GLONASS antennas unit "Kometa-M" is shielded in lower semi-sphere for better protection from EW systems.
Kh-69 has a range 290-400 km and carries 310 kh warhead (so at least 100-120 kg HE). Most bad feature for our AD is extreme low altitude flight profile. The missile can fly on 25-70 m which makes it too hard target for timely spotting by radars. Kh-69 developed for perspective Russian fighter Su-57, but probably Su-30/34/35 also may carry this missile.
It's known about three episodes of Kh-69 usage: Feb 7 2024, Feb 18 2024 (launch from Su-57, but missile hit the empty place in the field) and Apr 11 2024 (Trypillia thermal power plant was destroyed)    

Probable Kh-69 layout in Su-57 fighter

In last days Russians activated on Staromayorske - Urozhaine section (Berdiansk directions). Mostly a war of small groups for forward positions. Here is Ukrianian troops of 58th mot.inf brigade turned back own previously lost position in 1 km south from Urozhaine
M113 approaches to threnches, shells it and land assault squad. Assaulters eleiminte Russians with grenades and HE charges, then ran back to M113, which already brought fresh group, which will hold position 
 

Elements of 59th mot.inf brigade,  109th and 111th TD brigades pushed Russians back from NW part of Pervomaiske village, taking back a school almost in the center of the village. Russian troops seized almost all it several days ago, advancing to Karlivla. This is southern flank of Avdiivka sector
  
 

Next Russian attempt to enter to Chasiv Yar from Ivanivske. Column is destroyed. Video of 225th separate assault battalion
Su-25 over Chasiv Yar. Initially there was information this is Russian jets, but many told this is Ukrainian. Still unknown, so just "Su-25 over Chasiv Yar"
Rare episode of Ukrainian aviation uses gliding bombs. Russian position in Ivanivske got GBU-39
 

Kofman in his latest podcast which is focused on drones proposed a reason, why it is significantly more difficult to use drones in support of a go forward maneouvre. He says that Russian ECM is effective and droning Russian defensive positions requires operating within the umbrella of ECM emitters emplaced in the RUS  trenches, where drones will work significantly worse. He says that the drones really can shine when engaging units which are on the offensive and have left the ECM cover.
Kofman in general praises Russian ECM and for example, he says that GPS guided munitions have been generally degraded. Excaliburs are left unused in some units, and Ukrainians are asking for GMLRS with DPICM warheads which may still do damage despite the missile being spoofed by ECM and going off course.

Interesting post from Russian telegrammer:
https://t.me/rogozin_do/5657
 
 

Yeah, he obviously doesn't know the history of Afghanistan or Czechoslovakia/Hungary or he would be making that comparison not Iraq 2003. He kinda says that if war was a computer game you could save-scum your way to a flawless victory against impossible odds. But he doesn't say how. 
War is about mistakes - you can't run a "what if" scenario based on your side running a flawless campaign with perfect knowledge of both thr enemy and yourself

The story with Tsar-EW-tank got a continue.
After Russian attack was repelled, additional recon showed that this tank hadn't critical damages and can be moved to our positions as valuable source, because almost all Russian portable anti-drone EW assets were mounted which just were possible. It's turned out our FPV damaged only targeting system, then a tank tracks stuck in barbed wire with attached AT-mines, tank lost control, crashed into disabled BMP and stopped - the crew abandoned tank. 
During several nights two "Azov" tankers have been providing reparing works. They unlocked driver's hatch, because a gun was directly under it, then they changed a 70 kg battery, which brought from own positions - this work should be done by three men, but they did it together. Then they unraveled and cut the wire on the tracks and removed a mine under the tank. All this in the nights and not in calm situation - one night Russians tried to recapture tank, sending a group on the bikes (!!!), but it was eliminated. 
After all "Azov" tankers turned on engine and drove to own positions in Terny. But on the route the tank in the darkness fell into bomb crater, the driver hit head and lost consciousness. Fortunately he came to senses soon and could drive out the crater. Tank arrived to Terny, where the crew already awaited Serhiy "Flash" - admin of FB/TG channel about EW and communication systems. On the photo below he already researhes trophy equipmnent
    
 

Russia is spending over 6% of it's GDP on the military right now, which is a very heavy burden. A handful of NATO countries spent a comparable amount of money in Afghanistan every year for 20 years without much effort. 
I have not got the numbers to hand but NATO is not breaking a sweat right now financially, so even if big players like the US pulled out (doubtful, even with trump in charge IMO) they still have the resources to keep going. In a few years industry will catch up to the financing and then NATO can supply Ukraine indefinitely. 

Yeah, he obviously doesn't know the history of Afghanistan or Czechoslovakia/Hungary or he would be making that comparison not Iraq 2003. He kinda says that if war was a computer game you could save-scum your way to a flawless victory against impossible odds. But he doesn't say how. 
War is about mistakes - you can't run a "what if" scenario based on your side running a flawless campaign with perfect knowledge of both thr enemy and yourself

An update for Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Syrskyi:
https://t.me/osirskiy/645
 
 

First combat usage of haeavy octocopter with mounted machine-gun. Before we could see experiments, but lookls like more than year was need to complete works and test the system in real combat
 

It's unclear what exactly hits small drone on the video, but it's claimed unknown drone hit one of several working radars in Transnistria, which could track our aircraft in Odesa oblast and to share information with Russia
Transnistria allegedly has some P-12 (?) radars, but maybe western sources confused P-12 and P-18, because P-12 is very old stuff, adopted as far as in 1958 and even later upgrades are not younger that the end of 60th. I doubt this old sh..t could be kept in working conditions.
 
 

Satellite images of Yeysk airbase. For 5th of April we can see presumably one damaged aircraft

 
 

Interesting episode of repelling of Russian armored attack on Terny on 2nd of April. I posted this video and you may pay attantion on the tank with pile of boxes on the turret. As became knowingly this was Tsar-EW-tank, inteded to supress all possible frequencies of UKR FPVs.
 

Next the story about this:
It's Russian armored column has came. Our FPVs were falling down like flies on all frequencies, because on leading tank the EW-monster drove. Mad Max is relaxing here. On the pallet Russians assembled monsterous construction from everything equipment that they had. Three panels of patch-antennas 800/900/2.4/5.8 around and to all this were added blocks on 700-1000 ranges. Upper on some planks and around. All this was tied with ropes. On the armor also was mounted generator and batteries. There was too hard for our pilots, but quess if it kept EW the tank? No. Our brave pilots from the row of units hit them. Further with other armor became much easier.

 
And describing of the same episode from DeepState.
Before the column moved at 14:00, Russian TOS-1A has driven forward for preliminary bombarding of our positions, but was timely spotted and hit. 
At 16:00 we spotted th ecolumn of 6 tanks, coming from Zhytlivka direction. It's interesting that Tsar-EW tank moved in the head of column. It was destroyed later, you can see photos in Flash's TG. This Frankenstain was destroyed by the drone of 60th mech.brigade with additional homing (meant "machine eye"?). Two more tanks were hit by FPVs of 63rd mech.brigade. 
The moment of Tsar-EW was hit bt drone
In parallel way, the movement of column turned out in shooting range. 12th NGU regiment "Azov", 95th air-assault brigade, 21st mech.brigade, 60th mech.brigade, 63rd mech.brigade started to heap on Russians with everything what was possible. As result from 6 armors only 1 could flee. 
Since some time katsap box arrived to embark scattered infantrym bvut was destroyed too. 
Next day, 3rd of April next TOS-1A came forward, but again was destroyed by "Azov"
On 4th of April one more tank was destroyed here. 
 
 

Depends on if you isolate the war away from the west's support of Ukraine. Lots of Russia supporters don't/can't grasp that even if Ukraine can't win outright, it won't lose as long a even a few western countries keep the flow of supplies going. I don't think Russia has a plan for that. 

Depends on if you isolate the war away from the west's support of Ukraine. Lots of Russia supporters don't/can't grasp that even if Ukraine can't win outright, it won't lose as long a even a few western countries keep the flow of supplies going. I don't think Russia has a plan for that. 

Yeah, he obviously doesn't know the history of Afghanistan or Czechoslovakia/Hungary or he would be making that comparison not Iraq 2003. He kinda says that if war was a computer game you could save-scum your way to a flawless victory against impossible odds. But he doesn't say how. 
War is about mistakes - you can't run a "what if" scenario based on your side running a flawless campaign with perfect knowledge of both thr enemy and yourself

Yeah, he obviously doesn't know the history of Afghanistan or Czechoslovakia/Hungary or he would be making that comparison not Iraq 2003. He kinda says that if war was a computer game you could save-scum your way to a flawless victory against impossible odds. But he doesn't say how. 
War is about mistakes - you can't run a "what if" scenario based on your side running a flawless campaign with perfect knowledge of both thr enemy and yourself

Next Darwin premium for Russian recon 
Russian serviceman tells a story about stupid death of all recon group:
"Ahaha! Guys, look at this! The door bell on the tree here in the forest! How funny! Ahaha! I must ring! It's so jolly! Hey, Owl, are you home? BOOOM!"
 

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/04/04/pro-kremlin-telegram-channels-share-propaganda-video-featuring-u-s-city-councilor-who-joined-russian-army-after-fleeing-child-pornography-charges
No suprise that he is on the run from US law enforcement...

Dormitories and factory are part os single "special economical zone "Alabuga" - students involved into works on the factory. And reportedly this is not "forced labor" - they gain experience in high-techology branch, get reservation from conscription and get payment. So, most of theese young people willing to work there. And the srike on dormitories, as write some our sources was deliberate - to make panic and "uncertainity" among young enginners, IT, managers etc.
Of course, many of them may tell "I am for peace and I don't do anything bad - just write a code"
Russians claimed refinery didn't get serious damages, because drone "hit the fence", Well, we can see what a "fence" was really hit, but likely about results we will know later. Reportedly rectifical column on 8 mln.tons/year was hit
Today Russian sources reported "Severstal" company officially claimed the halted biggest blast furnace in Russian afetr drone attack about months ago. Investigations showed it will need several months of repair with 37 billion rubles cost.

I am going to try one more time here...
Your posts come off sounding extremely confused. You make multiple statements without any logical connection between them and you seem to know they are controversial but you do not back them up with evidence. You keep citing Plato's cave but in a way that sounds like you are copying what someone else said without understanding it.
Please offer simple and direct answers to people's questions. Imagine you are a professional writing a report for a client. You are not going to persuade anyone with long, poorly focused posts with no evidence. Because my finger is hovering over the ignore button and you only have yourself to blame. 

Sorry but can you explain in less than one paragraph what point or question you are trying to make here? I can't understand any of your posts.