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Offshoot

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Everything posted by Offshoot

  1. Another take on why Prigozhin stopped, by Vlad Vexler - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5680U8ZQVMk He says that Prigozhin stopped because he didn't get enough buy-in from the regular army and the elites and then, because of that, bottled it because going further might result in his eventual obliteration. Prigozhin may well have been able to take Moscow but without the buy-in needed to establish a (temporary) replacement administration it wasn't necessarily going to last and could have become very bloody.
  2. Surrender now so you don't have to pick sides. In Ukrainian custody really is the safest place to be.
  3. Wartranslated wrote this as "bypassed Voronezh", which would imply that they haven't taken it. Any confirmation on who holds Voronezh? EDIT: sorry, just read your following post about the situation.
  4. In both the 1991 and 1993 coups the participants were given amnesties, so it isn't outside the realms of possibility that Prigozhin will be forgiven, depending on how much damage he does to the state by way of disrupting the war in Ukraine. And Prigozhin has been careful to present himself as defending the people.
  5. If it is storm shadow it looks pretty disappointing or maybe a bad shot (photos from https://www.reddit.com/gallery/14ftzf9 )
  6. Another longer video by the people who made the command post video in Marinka. This one covers an assault on Russian positions by the 80th Air Assault Brigade. The subtitles work well enough to give a good idea of what is going on.
  7. Some footage of the fighting for Pyatykhatky. It looks like the Russians had the kitchen sink thrown at them. https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/14dcqru/the_liberation_of_pyatykhatky_settlement_in/
  8. They mention Kherson, so maybe the Russian MoD is afraid the reported outbreak of cholera is going to get pretty bad and is getting it's excuses in early.
  9. Russia has other problems as well, though we'll have to see how bad it gets: Russian units in Kherson Oblast and Crimea, stricken in cholera outbreak, ‘losing combat effectiveness’ - https://english.nv.ua/nation/russian-units-in-kherson-oblast-and-crimea-stricken-in-cholera-outbreak-losing-combat-effectivene-50332646.html The story is taken from a TG post by a partisan group but Ukrainian authorities had already reported that cholera was detected in water after the Kakhovka dam was blown, so it really wouldn't be surprising - https://english.nv.ua/nation/cholera-and-e-coli-found-in-water-supplies-in-southern-ukraine-following-kakhovka-dam-destruction-50331656.html
  10. It isn't an estimate but a count of only 100% verified deaths. As they explicitly state, it is the "bare minimum for Russia's total losses".
  11. Just to add some info, it is the 79th Air Assault Brigade. Ukrainian Armed Forces repel attack with armored vehicles in Marinka - https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-armed-forces-repel-attack-with-armored-vehicles-in-marinka/ Unfortunately the English closed captions are not good in this video, but anyway
  12. First they would have to go through their own minefields.
  13. Russian Volunteer Corps allows recruiting fighters from Wagner PMC. This sounds like a good and bad idea. The article features a video but I wonder if it has been staged. Surely if you have arranged an exchange with a certain number of prisoners you can't just start pulling them off the bus - https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-volunteer-corps-allows-recruiting-fighters-from-wagner-pmc/ Discord is used in the command posts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - https://mil.in.ua/en/news/discord-is-used-in-the-command-posts-of-the-armed-forces-of-ukraine/
  14. I wouldn't cheer for him yet. There's an unnecessary cut at the 12-13 second mark, so did the part where they picked him up get removed?
  15. Ukrainians in Storozheve after the Russians apparently withdrew, on foot
  16. An interesting BBC interview with a Russian helicopter pilot who refused to fight and later fled to Latvia. He gives "behind the scenes" insights into Russian losses, airfield saboteurs, corruption and Russian morale and opinions on the war - https://ukrainetoday.org/2023/06/09/russian-pilot-deserted-and-revealed-true-losses-of-russian-aviation/
  17. Ukrainian security services are claiming to have an intercepted phone call proving that the Russians blew up the Novo Kakhovka dam. If it's a real call, I think the more interesting part is that the Russians didn't intend to blow it up so badly: "“Our saboteur group is there. They wanted to cause fear with this dam. It did not go according to the plan. More than they planned,” the speaker said." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/09/seismic-data-adds-evidence-ukraine-kakhovka-dam-blown-up
  18. Any organisation like NAFO is going to come with a lot of filler, but it's a small price to pay given how much they have contributed in real terms to Ukraine's war effort, most recently with boats to help evacuate people from Kherson. Contributions that help the Ukrainians far more than the vast majority of realistic discussions on social media ever will.
  19. I'm pretty sure it was a friendly grenade (it comes from the right-hand side and the cameraman's reaction indicates it is). But I think this just underlines your point.
  20. A rising plodder needs a good pair of shoes: When 'shoe salesman' Vladimir Putin visited New Zealand - https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/sunday/audio/2018834000/when-shoe-salesman-vladimir-putin-visited-new-zealand
  21. About 80% support then. Should be enough to carry the Russian public for a while - https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2023-05-31/russian-public-support-for-putin-remains-high-despite-concerns-about-ukraine-war-poll It's from a Russian polling company, but interestingly, Prigozhin appears in the top 10 most trusted Russian officials for the first time. His exposure must be paying off.
  22. For those worrying about the effect of the Moscow drone attacks on western supporters of Ukraine. I doubt they would come out with such a statement if they had any thought at all that Ukraine were deliberately targeting civilians with deadly force. Ukraine has right to defend itself beyond its borders – UK Foreign Secretary - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/30/7404539/ "It has the legitimate right to do so within its own borders of course, but it does also have the right to project force beyond its borders to undermine Russia's ability to project force into Ukraine itself," Cleverly added.
  23. It essentially says that they don't know the cause of the "explosion" sounds, whether it is air defense or something else.
  24. I went looking but didn't find anything. Reuters themselves said they couldn't independently verify claims about a shot down Storm Shadow, so for this article to present them as facts is a red flag. It feels like the author is more interested in showing that "Our analysis proved to be correct".
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