Offshoot

"this propaganda video tells Russian men the real reason why they should sign up to fight in Ukraine: so they can buy their teenage daughter a new smartphone" What does he mean "buy"?

Regarding the right Russians, a recent overview article on Bakhmut described the situation with Wagner - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2022/12/8/7379743/ "Wagnerites, who are stationed on her part of the front, are composed of two groups: the well-trained ones and former convicts. The first ones act as group commanders. They plan operations efficiently and precisely, track the movement of their soldiers well, and encrypt radio communications. The latter are dumped onto the front after 2-3 weeks of poor training and used as cannon fodder. "A captured Wagnerite told us: you killed 50 people today, 50 more were brought to replace them by the evening. If you killed 100 – they [Russians – ed.] would bring 100 more. They [Russian command – ed.] try to keep exactly 900 people in the assault unit. They [Wagnerites – ed.] are told: "Manpower is not a problem."" A few strikes have recently targeted reported Wagner bases. Hopefully they have been hitting the commander cadre.

Wagner taking a pounding? Svatove Kadiivka https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63933132 Also "The Armed Forces hit 9 enemy control points " https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2022/12/12/7380326/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Russia has possibly received more UAVs from Iran.

I'm not sure it clarifies your question, but here is a little more info on where Russians might be in Bakhmut. The post after the video geolocates the positions that were shelled.

It is likely a narrative to counter the very recent reports of Russian blocking units killing fleeing mobiks. Not just "They do it too" but rather 'hard video evidence' versus merely reports. The funniest part was how she added that they were executed "most likely for refusing to follow orders", as if the drone could determine their motives.

Putin speaks - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/07/vladimir-putin-says-russias-war-on-ukraine-could-be-long-term-process -Says the war could be a long-term process -Denies planning for more mobilization -Denies mass desertions in the army -Says Russia would not use nuclear weapons first

A report by the Skala Battalion, a recon unit fighting around Bakhmut. It has subtitles and from about the halfway point has info about the terrain and enemy movements. They also have a relatively recent Twitter channel that might be interesting going forward.

Another purported drone strike (according to local authorities), this time in Kursk.

Ukraine claiming 60 of 70 missiles launched by Russia were shot down.

Heh, it's 1.5 months, or "one and a half [полтора] months".

Are the Russians learning or getting desperate?

It's easy to imagine some people in Russia are not happy that their control of supply lines, and therefore their cut, is being bypassed and reduced by volunteer groups "parallel" importing. The thing that keeps the system oiled, corruption, is also the thing that trips them up at every step.

I read an article a few days before the war started that essentially said it was now or "never" (unfortunately I can't find the article now). The Russian forces were in such a state that they either had to attack now or be withdrawn to be refitted. If they waited any longer, they would have been in no state to attack. At the time there were stories of Russian soldiers living in train stations buying their own food and selling their fuel. A personal account by an airborne soldier linked somewhere in this thread also attested to this. The diplomatic offensive very likely affected Putin and he may himself have been holding out hoping the west would give in. But in the end he had to use it or lose it (at least for a long time, as well as the initiative and a good amount of face). So Putin chose to use it.

The Guardian did a background piece on Stremousov. Given how he was behaving, it is still quite possible it was an inside job - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/14/kirill-stremousov-rise-fall-and-death-of-russia-installed-kherson-official "His murky death, whether indeed a genuine accident or the result of a Russian security services plan to get rid of an inconvenient loudmouth no longer useful to the authorities, will likely remain a mystery for the foreseeable future."

Also on the narrative from the horse's mouth

When micro meets macro? During the intimate interaction between Russian soldiers, the truck passes a sign saying "We are one people".

The sale of weapons to Russia and their use in the war could also be causing divisions in Iran around foreign policy. "Row brews in Iran over use of its drones in Ukraine war by Russia" - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/07/row-brews-in-iran-over-use-of-its-drones-in-ukraine-war-by-russia

Add the Guardian but with a slightly different angle (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/05/ukraine-democracy-russia-zelenskiy-us-washington) "That means an urgent search for a diplomatic track. As Ukraine’s primary arms supplier and funder, Washington needs to call for immediate negotiations to begin that process. This doesn’t mean twisting Ukraine’s arm to accept Moscow’s demands – decisions of what to concede or not in any negotiations is up to Kyiv, not Washington. But the US could help diplomacy gain traction by immediately initiating its own direct talks with Russia on issues shaping bilateral relations between the nuclear giants..."

The thing that struck me was when he said getting intelligence was difficult because drones don't fly (for both sides) because of the weather. Perhaps this is obvious, but it is not something I had considered. Given the importance of drones in this war, I wonder how much this will impact the way it is fought for this period.

LOL at 3:38. Abandon ship!

If you're on a PC, copy-pasting it into and then out of Notepad will strip all formatting.

Zelensky denies that Ukraine was responsible for the explosion on Kerch Bridge. https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3597628-explosion-on-kerch-bridge-zelensky-says-ukraine-definitely-did-not-order-that.html

To add to the indicators of stress and also on the subject of Russians shooting Russians, in an intercepted call a soldier describes how Russian regulars are charged with stopping conscripts from withdrawing, who in turn stop conscripts from withdrawing - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/16/7372156/ Assuming it is real, it could just be a local commander's initiative but also indicates the problems Russian commanders must have in controlling unmotivated and probably ill-disciplined conscripts and convicts. "The convicts were brought to us from a prison. They were led somewhere further forward. And we are here like barrier troops: if someone runs back, we take them out. This is how it is done here: that is, we are the second line here, guarding the first one, and there is a line behind us, too. You can’t run there either. It’s impossible to escape – our own guys will shoot us...".

It looks like a close in wind map, for which this colouring is common ( https://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/maps-radars/wind/current-wind ). It makes more sense animated and is exaggerated because the body of water is enclosed in land.