Offshoot

He's certainly going to be getting the attention he craved, though this time he will not be in control. I'm mystified why this kid has gone to the press (I assume he approached them rather than the WP found him). Given the choice of lying low and pleading ignorance or going to the authorities, he instead goes to the press, says he was the only one who believed the documents were real, and mounts a strange defense of his friend - he is a God-fearing man and isn't like Snowden. Further, he states he is going to assist an assumed criminal by not identifying him before he is found. A couple of WP journalists might be preparing themselves for a few weeks in jail too.

You would have to look for dates on the leaked documents themselves because the original leak started back in October, with wider dissemination occurring only recently - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/10/leaked-secret-us-defense-documents-circulated-by-gamers

An interesting article on the drone arms race and the changing tactical conditions for drone use in Ukraine. It's based on interviews with only three drone operators but they certainly have experience: "They’re starting to die’: fears Ukraine’s drone supremacy may soon be over. Frontline drone operators say Russia is close to countering their most popular models – setting off a race to find replacements" - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/10/in-war-there-are-no-emotions-ukraine-drone-squads-bakhmut

Vlad Vexler has an analysis of a letter Dugin wrote about Prigozhin where he essentially takes Prigozhin's side against Girkin. In it Vlad comments that Prigozhin has 0% support within Russia whereas Girkin could actually call on a following of Z-radicals (potentially 10-20% of the population). Perhaps Girkin does have a patron(s), but it is also possible that his "patron" are those masses of nationalists that Putin needs to keep onside, especially as he attempts to shift society to encourage more people to become nationalists. Video should start where more specific discussion about Girkin begins:

Surely tank 2's job was to protect tank 1's left flank? Although they weren't shown, I don't think the trench on the cross-point of the T was the only Russian position they were worried about (are the Ukrainians suppressing a third in the distance with artillery?). At the end, tank 1 gets close enough to the trench that it could easily have come under fire from the position tank 2 is suppressing.

Those dastardly Kadyrovites had a master plan all along.

Reminds me of a recent video where the guys unloading the mortar shells don't know what the smoke rounds are and/or aren't happy to see them. In the video there seems to be quite a pile of them (I assume the ones with the red stripe; the video should start at the right timestamp) It is more long form and it has very few explosions, but I found the whole video interesting as a portrait of the nitty-gritty of the day-to-day business of the war in Ukraine.

In an intercepted private conversation, Russian elite freak out, cry into their cups and wonder about an uncertain future and how they can save their own skins and as much wealth as possible. They have some choice things to say about Putin along the way. And some analysis of the conversation and the wider context (it has good closed captions)

Ignore this, I see now it has been covered already. I'm pretty sure that near the beginning of the first video a Russian fires what looks like an RPG at the trench line and it ends up exploding on a tree. Still not much but because of the way they used it they didn't have it when armour did turn up.

An interesting and well-referenced article based on a post by a pro-Russian blogger (https://t.me/rusengineer/612) saying that Ukraine is preparing to mount a kamikaze drone assault involving thousands of drones (at least continuous waves of drones until positions are destroyed) - https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/03/24/russia-braces-for-attack-by-50000-ukrainian-kamikaze-drones-seeks-shotguns/amp/ Currently it is just chatter of course and probably exaggerated, but it does touch on some points discussed here, such as the use of drone "swarms" and how Ukraine will breach Russian defences. The article fosuses on racing (FPV) drones, which are cheap and mass produced: The limiting factors are having sufficient operators and control channel congestion: Among other things, the Russian blogger suggests an immediate response would be to arm infantry with shotguns. If nothing else, it provides a view from the other side and highlights something that is concerning the Russians; given the spate of videos of drone attacks shown here recently it is understandable. The article also links to a Facebook post from the end of January by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine about setting up dedicated drone "shock companies" (translated by Google):

Video of it:

Could be to stir the pot after "On Monday, Prigozhin published a letter to the Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, saying Ukraine aimed to cut off Wagner’s forces from Russia’s regular troops." (also from the Guardian feed)

The cold war could already be here: Qantas warns about interference by the ‘Chinese military’ in the South China Sea - https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/qantas-warns-about-interference-by-the-chinese-military-in-the-south-china-sea/news-story/40ff6a6a66408d666565085c5abf5d86 Likely a direct response to AUKUS and Australia ordering nuclear submarines from the US.

Whatever the loss ratio might be, it may have paid dividends given the ISW's latest report on the substantial reduction of Russian offensive operations over the past few days. Now this thread can debate how many soldiers Russia has for defense and how many Ukraine has for any upcoming counter-attack - https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-15-2023

Here's another video about a mortar team from a different unit in Bakhmut. They say that they can be in one position for a day or two but that it depends - Russian artillery can respond quickly but it isn't strong or accurate. And as per the hromadske video, it also depends on Ukraine maintaining a constant supply of drones because they are still losing them regularly.

Done don?

In addition to what others have said, the UK had a soft empire for quite a while after the real one faded away. At least they pretended they were still great and indulged in large quantities of nostalgia. The King is still the head of state of 15 countries, as Town and Country dutifully reminds us - https://www.townandcountrymag.com/society/tradition/g41501895/what-countries-does-king-charles-iii-reign-over/ Until the Australians upset the apple cart, the UK (England) got to remind all the oiks who was best at the Commonwealth games every 4 years - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Commonwealth_Games_medal_table And even now the proms (an annual series of classical performances in London) concludes with rousing singalongs to Land of Hope and Glory and Rule, Britannia, despite discontent in some circles given the damage they did to the colonised countries and people. Throw in Brexit with it's longings for a lost Britain and you could say that the UK is still renegotiating it's post-empire place in the world.

Today's Hromadske video is on the 93rd in Bakhmut and starts by talking to a man who was mobilized on Jan 8 and has just been transferred to Bakhmut after training. The topic of experience and the mobilized is a fairly prominent theme throughout.

Whoever they are, they all look like they are fresh from the outfitter and drycleaner, down to the brand new yellow tape. If they really are the volunteer corps, they must know they aren't getting out right? It just seems like it would be a useless demonstration at this point.

You'll be fine. I'm not far from Hobbiton and there are no orcs to report. I think someone has been looking in a palantir too long.

Check out the ukraine_tbic channel, a Canadian volunteer medic in Ukraine - https://www.youtube.com/@ukraine_tbic He seems to be mostly involved in evac from collection points to stabilization points. From 20:40 in the following video he talks about the death of Pete Reed and how he was setting up a stabilization point with support from foreign NGOs, who also provide supplies.

Given that five (~20%) of the suspicious deaths of Russian businessmen over the past year have involved people associated with Gazprom, it begs the question of who is protecting who from who - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022-2023_Russian_businessmen_suspicious_deaths

Prigozhin getting all high and mighty and challenging Zelensky to a dogfight dual. Why does it look like Prigozhin is having trouble keeping his dinner down, maybe after some high Gs?

The UK MoD assessment is "...it is unlikely that Russia has sufficient uncommitted troops in the area to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough." This attack included elements of the same unit that complained about their commanders after heavy losses last November, so it seems nothing has changed - https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/11/07/elite-russian-marine-unit-slams-military-leaders-for-baffling-battle-losses-a79303 There was discussion here recently about the impact of Russian losses on the mindset of Russians generally, but I wonder what the impact is specifically on Russian frontline soldiers (not counting Wagner around Bakhmut given their policies on refuseniks). Do I remember rightly that there were recent reports of soldiers around Vuhledar refusing to attack? I thought it was mentioned in this thread recently but I couldn't find it. Retired Australian general Mick Ryan on "how Ukraine will seek out where Russia's next offensives might occur" - https://mickryan.substack.com/p/divining-russias-main-effort-in-2023

Indeed. That is why the original source for the data is better than a cut and paste tweet. It includes a section describing why sanctions assessment is hard and others that discuss their methodology and limitations.