Offshoot

On the subject of change, Vlad Vexler has just released a video on the reformatting, some of it semi-reluctant, of Russian political systems and society - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3XyDmR7vXA This is seen through the lens of the Wagner-MoD tussles and a recent statement by some Russian soldiers who complained about their conditions and asked to be able to leave and join Wagner instead. He likens it to Putin taking the Russian bus offroad (invading Ukraine) to keep everyone on the bus but running into mud and having to do more reformatting to compensate. He also covers Putin's use of Prigozhin to triangulate the pillars of power and how to use the current events as a window into the stability of the Russian regime. It's long but the pith is covered in the first half.

The answers to these questions do not have to be static. For a long time Prigozhin denied any connection to Wagner but in the past year has become the very public and outspoken face of it, gaining the public political support he lacked and the devotion of his cadre. Also in the past year Wagner have secured income flow from Africa, so theoretically they could be less tied to the MoD for logistics. It doesn't necessarily mean that Prigozhin is trying to be a player and make a tilt for power. He could be doing what Putin is doing and carving out a more secure space for himself so that Putin cannot just easily replace him. From lap dog to guard dog. EDIT: OK, I didn't read far enough before posting. I see you have talked about Prigozhin "making a splash".

As a flip side to the discussion on the rebuilding of Ukraine, this is an interesting article on the current situation in Mariupol: ‘It’s like the USSR’: residents on life in Mariupol a year since Russian occupation - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/18/its-like-the-ussr-residents-on-life-in-mariupol-a-year-since-russian-occupation And some before and after aerial photos of Bakhmut: https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2023/may/18/stark-before-and-after-images-reveal-the-obliteration-of-bakhmut

Lysenko would be proud - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lysenkoism And to stir the pot a bit, don't forget about epigenetics and the genetic transmission of trauma - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6127768/ If it is an actual phenomenon in humans, I would say it plays a far greater role in the outlook of Russian society than the underlying gene pool.

The original source, who actually took the photos

A "light" article on the development of this FPV UGV with a few details - https://mil.in.ua/en/articles/army-of-ground-drones/

I'm not sure there were that many in the bunker. At about the 2:36 mark you see a guy running from right to left on the screen and a couple of guys already in the scrub under the power pole where they meet. I think half of the dozen had come from another position to reinforce or help with evacuation. These guys certainly weren't like the ones robbing their comrade.

There is a group in Australia called the Australian Cossacks. Their leader has been hiding in the Russian consulate since December to avoid criminal charges and asked Wagner to organise a prisoner swap, exchanging him for a future captured Australian volunteer in Ukraine - https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/hiding-in-the-russian-consulate-for-months-aussie-cossack-demands-a-prisoner-swap-20230405-p5cyb5.html

An article about the expected Ukrainian offensive based mainly on the thoughts of Roman Kostenko, a special forces colonel and chair of the Kyiv parliament’s intelligence and security committee - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/12/ukraine-prepares-to-take-back-territory-from-russia-step-by-step-roman-kostenko Nothing surprising here, but it does stand in contrast to a lot of expectations. -"Ukraine’s long-anticipated push should be understood as a rolling “spring-summer campaign” against an entrenched and powerful adversary" that will proceed in stages -First stage: strikes against logistical targets (started) -Second stage: strikes against command and control centres (likely started) -No major frontal offensive until these stages weaken Russia's capabilities -On locations: Dnipro is a grey zone where it is difficult to hold positions; the distances and fortifications involved in Zaporizhzhia are formidable and the region is heavily mined; favours attacking Bryansk

Zelensky is pouring cold water on this or dissimulating - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65550427 "Speaking at his headquarters in Kyiv, President Zelensky described combat brigades, some of which were trained by Nato countries, as being "ready" but said the army still needed "some things", including armoured vehicles that were "arriving in batches". "With [what we already have] we can go forward, and, I think, be successful," he said in an interview for public service broadcasters who are members of Eurovision News, like the BBC. "But we'd lose a lot of people. I think that's unacceptable. So we need to wait. We still need a bit more time.""

I'm sorry, I didn't realise my purpose here was to win the Ukrainian war. I will copyright my own book: "How posting on forums wins wars, but only if you have a high horse"

No doubt for some they are just war porn, but also: Because no matter how narrow, it can still be a view of reality. Because multiple narrow views of reality can be compiled to provide a wider view. Because there is more to war than just strategic, operational and even tactical views, such as the personal view. The videos can provide a view into the personal experiences of people directly involved in the war.

A longer, more complete video of the Russian surrendering via drone. It looks like this happened while combat continued, unless the Russians were prepared to spend shells to try and kill the surrendering guy. https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/13e9b7g/a_longer_video_of_the_russian_surrendering_to_a/

It depends on what it symbolises. Vlad Vexler discussed the parade and noted that it was disgusting because it highlighted how Putin has co-opted or privatised the Great Patriotic War myth, equating himself as an individual with it - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APGtuQ7JAFs&t=278s It's likely they couldn't get the usual number of tanks, so rather than have a diminished parade they cut it down completely to have just the traditional and symbolic T34. In this case, however, it could symbolise for them the solitary Putin, the embodiment of the Russian state, standing heroically and by himself against the rest of the world. It does look bad to the rest of the world but Putin is already "at war" with them, so he doesn't care. It was all for domestic purposes.

Russia deporting ships from Sevastopol too, according to Ukrainian intelligence - https://www.kyivpost.com/post/16651

Just to add, the Kremlin is claiming it took out the drones, thereby making out that their air defences are not suspect or weak: "“Two unmanned aerial vehicles were aimed at the Kremlin. As a result of timely actions taken by the military and special services with the use of radar warfare systems, the vehicles were put out of action,” the Kremlin press service said. It said that debris from the drone “fell on the territory of the Kremlin”." - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/03/russia-accuses-ukraine-of-trying-to-kill-vladimir-putin-with-kremlin-drone-strike Of course, it is the sort of excuse you would expect them to use in the case of either a real or a false flag attack.

That was just the beginning "trailer", which shows some very short clips from the longer video. The actual sequence of events is shown clearly later with an explanation.

Prigozhin threatens to pull Wagner out of Bakhmut if not given munitions - https://kyivindependent.com/prigozhin-threatens-to-pull-wagner-out-of-bakhmut-if-not-given-munitions/ "Prigozhin reportedly told Telegram-based outlet WarGonzo that he sent a letter to Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu with his ultimatum, supposedly giving Shoigu until April 28 to decide. The mercenary chief reiterated his frequently-voiced concern that Wagner might be seeing its final days as a company." Just normal agitating? A legitimate issue? Setting up excuses before a collapse?

It's interesting to see the video feed from the FPV drone in this case and how it breaks up before contact because we know the FPV successfully hit the target and exploded. Earlier in this thread comments were made that maybe this video effect was added to the video to hide a miss by the FPV. It seems, however, like it is an integral aspect of at least some FPVs.

A long but more complete view of combat in Bakhmut involving border guards. It has a bit of everything: command center, a foot patrol, drone operators working with mortar crews, manpad air defence hunters, wounded retrieval and evacuation, discussion of the quality of the Russian soldiers now and their new tactics, personal accounts, and some stunning views of destroyed Bakhmut. The closed captions work well.

If he has returned and is respected by the rank and file, are the Russians trying to shore up discontent?

The leaker dude must have bought nitro on Discord for those sweet animated emojis: "According to Lueckenhoff, he had been identified by a member of an internet group he led on Discord, a gaming messaging platform, and a “social media platform” – presumably a reference to Discord – handed over Teixeira’s billing address and other details to the FBI. The FBI then put his driver’s licence photo in a lineup of similar photos to the witness, who identified him." - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/14/jack-teixeira-charged-pentagon-leaks-espionage-act

In addition, are their server admins able to see what files are accessed by which person? If they are, how come no audits identified him as accessing this info over several months?

Apparently the number of Russians contacting the I Want to Live line spiked in March: for example, https://english.nv.ua/nation/record-number-of-russian-soldiers-used-ukraine-s-surrender-hotline-in-march-news-50316158.html - "“In March, we essentially broke a record – more than 3,000 appeals, which is twice as many as in 2022,” said Matvienko." Self-reporting by the Ukrainians of course and how many of those contacts went on to actually surrender is another story.