fireship4
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Posts posted by fireship4
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I am a regular watcher of the 'War in Ukraine' YouTube channel. They made some comments regarding sanctions increasing oil prices and counter-productively benefiting Russia. In the interest of examining the issue and the related issue of Russian natural gas supply to Europe:
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1 hour ago, Grigb said:
That leads to some panic behavior (remember toilet paper shortage?) And that panic behavior reinforces RU perception that things are bad even though they might not be that bad yet. And more people start panicking and then it is self fulfilling panic that might not have any relation to reality.
I look at that kind of thing as a co-ordination problem. Sure there is plenty of toilet paper, but if everyone else panics, we better stock up as there really will be a shortage. Perhaps that applies in this situation - there is a real reason to panic if everyone is panicking, if the panic itself has some direct effect. Loss of belief in a leader, loss of confidence that the flank is secured, etc.
18 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:Some humor....
Great meme. Galeev's recent call for memes against Rheinmetal missed the mark for me, and I think it's quite interesting why it wasn't successful. It was a top down call for memes, to a certain specification, not in line with the cultural context of memes of this type. Like saying to the country - 'Oi, give me some plans for new energy sources'. Creativity doesn't work best that way. Neither does the selection effect: this meme spread because it's bloody clever.
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3 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:
Lieber ein Ende mit Schrecken als ein Schrecken ohne Ende.
A final solution if you will?
You guys don't know what you are saving.
Everything you and @kraze are saying about the Russian ex-pat population could be right in general, and similar things can be said about other populations - 'Muslims' for example. They can be said about the Ukrainians - infected with the Western ideology, they cannot see how it harms the Slav. Harsh measures are necessary.
So you've imported a large number of people and they have their own culture, and they largely stick together and don't atomise into the larger culture. They don't seem make themselves available to the ideas and mechanisms our culture has which influence behaviour. Ideas like human rights, freedom of choice, open criticism, advocating the truth over the interests of your tribe - changing ideas which can always be improved.
So you made a mistake and think you have damaged this Western culture by importing too many who act upon different principles. Bad luck. You do more damage to it by throwing them out. Fix the problem another way - if they have citizenship they are now part of you, and how you treat them is how you can be treated.
[And as far as I can see it McCarthy was not a hero and did damage which echoes until the present day, even if he was right in some cases about Soviet agents. A committee to scrutinise the political beliefs of workers which then bans them from work if they fail? It is against the very notion of discussion and criticism toward better ideas. It sounds more Soviet than anything else. And you guys sometimes sound like the other ones.]
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35 minutes ago, JonS said:
conanical example
You have summoned me once again, this thread is no place for the bearer of the jeweled crown of Aquilonia!
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Quote
...Ivanov described "holy fool" as a term for a person who "feigns insanity, pretends to be foolish, or who provokes shock or outrage by his deliberate unruliness."...
...and occasionally being disruptive and challenging to the point of seeming immoral (though always to make a point).
...Ivanov argued that, unlike in the past, modern yurodivy are generally aware that they look pathetic in others’ eyes. They strive to pre-empt this contempt through exaggerated self-humiliation, and following such displays they let it be known both that their behaviors were staged and that their purpose was to disguise their superiority over their audience.
...The practice was recognised in the hagiography of fifth-century Byzantium, and it was extensively adopted in Muscovite Russia, probably in the 14th century. The madness of the Holy Fool was ambiguous, and could be real or simulated. He (or she) was believed to have been divinely inspired, and was therefore able to say truths which others could not, normally in the form of indirect allusions or parables. He had a particular status in regard to the Tsars, as a figure not subject to earthly control or judgement.
Cool piece of history, though it sounds less like Lenin and more like a figure with a social function protected by the position. It makes me think of the traditional clown, or a court jester.
QuoteThe Eastern Orthodox Church holds that holy fools voluntarily take up the guise of insanity in order to conceal their perfection from the world, and thus avoid praise.
Hmm, so you have in your head to criticise the social order, OK, instead of how they did it in the past, really make people think you are mad, you will be seen as such, and it will do the more good for it. In the end. In heaven maybe. Just not now.
Like the figure of the self-hating Jew perhaps, used so criticism can be ignored when it comes from within, tainted by it's source - the internalisation of the outer world's persecution.
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On 8/25/2022 at 5:24 PM, domfluff said:
Crew served weapons are primarily about suppression
They suppress well because they kill well. Doctrines refer to suppression a lot: it's the next best thing to an enemy incapacitated. Surrendered is even better, with 'not there' at number one.
You suppress an enemy when forcing their decisions away from action you dislike: looking in your direction, shooting at you, fleeing, etc. They may move to achieve this: as long as you continue to force the decision, they are suppressed. They become less dangerous and harder to kill.
A machine gun firing at sufficiently trained infantry in the open will not suppress them. They will lie down and engage it, or die trying. With available cover, they will use it to the detriment of their abilities to the extent they are forced.
Artillery and machine guns are about killing as effectively as possible.
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1 hour ago, Grigb said:
...the left bank of the Dnieper
I would like to clarify for those that don't know, which was me until about half an hour ago (though I had suspected), that this means the eastern bank of the river, since it flows south. There is also some history to using the terms 'left bank' and 'right bank' in the context of the Dnieper in particular.
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52 minutes ago, Grigb said:
My favorite so far is Kherson village Tavriyske
New York has to be high on there...
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1 hour ago, Grigb said:
could be different Kisilevka
If some guy in the past came up with the idea of having a lot of villages with the same name to confuse invaders, it worked too well.
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4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:
Movie from intense close (very close) combat from Pisky.
4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:There is longer version down the thread
Here it is below for those interested. Without understanding the apparently Russian presenter, it looks to me like a piece on a battle they won (not surprising really). No notable footage of the fighting itself seems to be missing.
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7 hours ago, Huba said:
Captain Blackadder
An understandable mistake, the correct contact name is in fact 'Catpain Blackudder' if I remember correctly.
4 hours ago, Grigb said:It would be if Putin did not clean military leadership a long time ago. One charismatic and competent general would already amass enough political influence to get loyalty of the army and majority of country. It is just that all such generals are dead or thrown out of the army (see general Lebed example in the period of 1 Chechen war. Not very well known general quickly became a major political star capable of challenging Yeltsin. He died under suspicious circumstances in 2002)
One reason the leadership is so bad perhaps: do too well and you die!
4 hours ago, Grigb said:The same FSB that for years was unable/unwilling even to threaten Girkin or Murz credibly enough to shut their mouths. The truth is FSB is actually RU Nat organization. It is just the top leadership that is loyal to Putin.
So they kill Girkin, nationalist leaning FSB guys on the front-line get super jumpy and declare allegiance to the nats, who don't trust them because they are FSB... I would just go and have a lie down. Give me Generation Kill any day.
2 hours ago, kraze said:To some hammer and sickle sculpted out of cow crap gives hope and not fear.
As a holy book may be seen as dangerous knowledge by some, and a symbol of freedom by others, some have read it, some have not. Some words and histories are more easily bent than others, a scaffold of interpretation is built, the intent of the writer lost or irrelevant.
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I don't want to derail the Black Sea thread, but IIRC there was mention of some kind of bone to celebrate 1000 posts... did I miss it or is it still in the pipeline?
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17 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Could be, but look at the statement again.
"they're doing that with the existing GMLRS, with the existing HIMARS."
He didn't say it's with US supplied systems, so a lawyer would say he's talking about all of what Ukraine has regardless of where they originated from. A lawyer would also point out that he didn't say they don't have ATACMS, he just said that so far all the strikes were using GMLRS.
If we are going to take him at his word, no mistakes or lies, then this means ATACMS was not used to attack Saky airbase. Which leaves the only viable explanations Hrim-2 or SOF. Which works for me since i don't think ATACMS was used for that attack
Steve
Without the full context of the interview/session, I would just point out that this statement restricts itself to noting things they have done, and states a means by which they are achieved. It does not deny they have done the same thing with other means.
They could be using US supplied ATACMS and this statement would not be false, only misleading. I prefer a simple 'no comment on these kind of matters' response.
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Video from thermal camera
Pipe ash. Stuff is wicked dangerous.
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35 minutes ago, Huba said:
US arms packages are almost an weekly event now, more frequent than during peak of battle of Severodonetsk:
Scan Eagles... they look like something the 'War in Ukraine' channel mentioned as a missing component of the AFU, Russia has the Orlan-10 and this seems to fulfill the same role, with a long loiter time. Cost, numbers and flight ceiling however... quick Wikipedia sourced ballparks, Orlan-10 / Scan Eagle: $160,000 / $3.2 million, a good proportion of the over 1,500 built / 16 to the AFU in this package, 5,000m / ???.
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28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
He did, though maybe not as thoroughly as we've discussed here. Blast cover doesn't protect from falling debris and craters are not created by collective rounds going boom. Craters are caused by a singular detonation, which is what this guy was focused on. No way SOF could lug enough explosives there to create that sort of crater. Plus, we have video evidence of the dumps going up all at once instead of cooking off, and that requires about the same amount of explosives that created the craters.
Steve
I don't think that all follows, to me it seems plausible that det cord or somesuch was used to wire up a bunch of the piles of ammo, explosives were placed on a number of planes, timers were set, and they went home. Blast cover doesn't protect from falling debris yes but I don't know how likely that is to destroy (not simply damage) so many planes without leaving the place a wasteland. Unless they had bombs on their racks, making it a bit more likely.
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43 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Hey look at what a US Navy SEAL came up with:
I'm pretty pleased I came to the same conclusion the day after the attack happened.
The one thing I think the SEAL got wrong is the weapon used. The craters seem to be too big for what ATACAMS packs. We've also seen plenty of other HIMARS attacks and the resulting explosions were of a very different character. So either what was blown up at this base was significantly different, and therefore reacted differently, or it was hit by something other than ATACMS.
To me the debate is between ATACMS or Hrim-2. Whatever it was, I hope Ukraine has a lot more of them.
Steve
Doesn't mention the ammunition/stores at the locations of the craters... assumes SOF raid must have been during the day as opposed to the night before... doesn't explain multiple planes in revetments with some blast cover being destroyed... doesn't show his working on judging the craters to be 'consistent with 500lb warhead', apart from saying one has a 'diameter in excess of 10m'...
Not a thorough assessment I feel.
EDIT: Still up in the air for me, SOF was my guess, I don't know enough about explosives to say whether detonating ammunition would create the focused craters we see. The blasts were powerful enough to knock over a bunch of stuff I would have assumed had protection from a ground-level blast judging from some of the images, so I don't know.
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You can see a launch from just to the right of the tank in the trees, which misses the BMP. I don't know what hit the tank.
EDIT: There are a couple of flashes in the video whose source isn't immediately obvious, the first between the camera and the trees at the location of the miss, I would guess is a lense-flare due to the explosion, the other is in the bottom right and seems co-located with a third vehicle.
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I find on map US tracked 120mm mortar carriers to be more or less useless for point targets due to this, unless using precision rounds. Not to mention they don't seem to work as a pair on multi-unit fire missions.
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Apologies for posting a meme, but when they are this good...
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EDIT: As far as the cause of the strike, SOF night mission with delayed charges (infiltration or drone-dropped) makes sense to me, as well as Hrim, eventually we may have more to go on.
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Something occurs to me about the longer logistical routes - I have little knowledge on the subject and would be happy to be corrected. I get the impression that this should affect the ability of the logistics system to respond to changes, but not necessarily affect throughput except where transport vehicles are a limiting factor.
If there are plenty of vehicles and demand stays the same, then the supply will arrive at the same rate: the rate at which they are sent out (allowing for mistakes along the way which will increase with more distance). The journey time will be longer but this will have more effect if units use their own (likely more limited) number of vehicles to go and collect what they need from supply points, as they will be able to make fewer trips in the same amount of time.
Am I on the right track and does anyone know how resupply is handled in the Russian system?
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12 minutes ago, Huba said:
A video combining a number of Switchblade strikes. it looks like it has a kind of a semi-automatic guidance where it picks a target that is in the middle of the camera and guides itself into it. Looks scary.
I think the green cursor is the operator clicking to specify a target which is then tracked (it apparently tracks a moving person at one point after they are selected). I'm not sure what the white cursor is. There is a longer video out there (perhaps earlier in the thread) that includes some of the same footage.
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I ask your forbearance as I summarise some of the discussion over the last few pages. I don't have much to add.
[EDIT: It turned out longer than my arm so I have put it all in a quote box.]
QuoteFirstly on selling CMBS/a CMBS module at this time:
18 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:There's a big difference having something that has been on sale for years continue to be for sale vs. releasing something brand new. Same big difference between having an already existing product go on sale with all the other products of a company vs. having a sale for a specific product.
We are doing nothing to use this war to our financial advantage. Releasing new content at this time or specifically promoting CMBS would. It's not only bad business, I think it's immoral. I'd sooner delete the 98% done Module for CMBS, pissing away months of work we've already paid for, rather than release it under these circumstances.
Sorry to disappoint some of you fans, but we do indeed have scruples.
Steve
15 hours ago, Rice said:Yes it is also true that it is an existing product, and all the other titles on Steam went on sale, but it still stands that you are putting the game on sale during the conflict while simultaneously refusing to work on the game during the conflict.
3 hours ago, Rice said:It's great that he's enjoying himself in this thread, but it leaves the greater community, that aren't regularly posting here, asking why everything has to be halted. The logic behind the apparent hold on game development is not sound, as I previously went over in my last post. It's really looking more like paranoia when it comes to Cold War.
I appreciate Steve's sentiment in the first quote and think they are striking the correct balance. CMBS is an old game, and was in development before Russia invaded in 2014. I don't have a problem with it being sold, nor even going on sale - if people want to game out scenarios etc. that are inspired by this, once again, old game, showcasing the modern RU army at war, good for them (and they is me).
I also agree another module for such, even if set in the same parallel universe, might be a step to far, and a new game set in the modern situation would definately be so. I don't think I need to go into why. I will admit a certain hankering to see CMBS in an updated guise where certain behavioural and tactical and technological assumtions/decisions are corrected - these are well documented in the thread on what users would like out of an engine update. How this could be achieved considering the above I don't know.
As for as this thread being a distraction... I don't really understand @Rice and @Grey Fox's positions - no-one is forced to post in this thread, users are welcome to start discussions more focused on the games elsewhere, the developers' time is theirs to do with as they wish - and I am saying this as someone who has made my position clear on the speed and direction of such toward my favoured option of a new engine.
Secondly the discussion on out-of-control RU nationalist militias etc.:
15 hours ago, Grigb said:If the war will not end until September we will see the emergence of another power actor - Nationalist paramilitary. RU ISIS is being born in front of our eyes.
15 hours ago, Grigb said:Indeed. The issue is it will be ugly, and they will try to hit NATO countries whenever possible. They are not regulars, so they are not afraid of Article 5.
8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:First, Articles 4 and 5 make it clear that a nation can make a request based on any criteria it wishes to, but it is up to the rest of NATO to determine if it's valid enough to qualify for a response. If NATO thinks it looks, walks, and quacks like a duck then it's a duck. Doesn't matter how much Russia protests that it it's an elephant.
7 hours ago, Grigb said:These guys do not care if Article 5 is triggered. They do not have the Kremlin or big bunker to hit. They do not have big military bases or big conventional units. They will disappear among civilians as soon as they feel like it. NATO swift response is actually beneficial to them as it means NATO strikes /invasion that justifies their existence.
Arty strikes at border targets. Cross border raid to hit border guard/police units. ATGM/MANPAD ambush.
Just ask yourself how many Eastern European border units are ready to deal with drone adjusted arty? How many of them are ready to deal with drone coordinated ambush? ATGM/MANPAD ambush? That's where we are heading now unfortunately.
6 hours ago, Grigb said:However, rumors are that RU gave green light for formation of volunteer battalions in border regions. Well, there are already volunteer battalions forming in various regions. But they are more closely integrated in to RU army. The new ones are different matter. They are specifically for cross border war. If they will be able to form them (RU military does not want them).
On the other hand, we are not talking about conventional warfare. Ugly terror strikes at NATO infrastructure in resident areas, malls, kindergartens. Everything you see they do against UKR but to the lesser degree.
5 hours ago, Grigb said:Keep in mind we are talking about RU in turmoil. You cannot guarantee that RU military will exist or will maintain order in border areas. You hit few suspicions guys only to discover they are illegal immigrants or smugglers.
5 hours ago, Huba said:1. RU central government is still in control, and doesn't let them > there are civil war style fights near the border, NATO on very high alert, but don't respond
2. RU central government is still in control, and lets them > RU central government attacks NATO, WWIII (rather unlikely)
3. RU central government is not in control, and this happens > NATO murders them in seconds after they open fire. There's nobody to respond on the central level anyway, so nothing happens.
1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:Agree, such scenario is very unlikely and would need complete loss of control on part of Kremlin a la 1917. They certainly don't like any nationalistic gangs to put their nose in geopolitics. And modern Cossacks are just laughable reenactment groups compared to true Black Sotnyas of the past.
I think the subject is covered well over the course of the posts i've included here. I will simply ruminate as an amateur: It is clear to me that the Russian state security services want to maintain control, and value the deniability, disposability and economy of non-state assets. At the same time it is not clear to me how much control they actually have in general terms, nor how centralised the state actually is, as opposed to a constantly vying mass of interests.
The Wagner group was establised by Dmitri Utkin I believe, as a private venture, before being arrested en masse and converted into a deniable subsidiary under Prigozhin.
Another example would be various leaders in the Donbass dying until only one state-controlled asset remained.
I do think it would be hard to use forces such as these to attack NATO without responsibility being placed on the state, short of civil-war level turmoil where deniability may give way to plausible loss of control, but I think in that scenario they wouldn't be going abroad to achieve their goals.
I do not discount however the possibility they could play a role in a conversion of the conflict into a forever-war complete with full mobilisation and drawing NATO into small enough border clashes to maintain a plausible war without all the trouble of getting invaded, to ensure the position of the tsar and the integrity of the federation.
7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:With Jeremy Corbyn out of the Labour leadership role, things are definitely better than they might have been a few years ago.
Steve
Meh. Jeremy Corbyn was a welcome departure at the time, politics had been crying out for some sort of principled actor on the left, one with consistent views that didn't chase the electorate, nor simply manage the status quo, but had a vision for a better future. The current lot have not been able to inspire the populace even against what could be the three worst prime ministers in British history.
I even appreciated his questioning of the nuclear deterrant and how he would use it - it is at least worth questioning whether it is in fact rational or moral to glass a population center in retaliation after a first strike, considering MAD had therefore plausibly been disproven. Indeed the subject is complex, MAD is no longer the strategy, and giving a definitive answer is perhaps giving away some of your leverage (IIRC I don't believe he did in the end). Never the less he explored the issue when a minister more concerned with defensive play, even with the end goal of enacting progressive policy, would have kept their mouths shut.
I was a little dismayed to hear he had been rather naive on Russia more recently, however you never know what to believe re. media reporting where he is concerned. His removal as Labour leader was widely seen as a coup (with media assistance) by new-labour members some of whom would be better placed in the liberal democrats, being a somewhat 'conservatives-lite' party. I would contend there may be no greater danger to Russia than true believers in various left causes, inside or outside.
I may not be in favour of wide-scale nationalisation, but there is a lot of potentially good policy that would benefit the UK which could only really claim to be decended from discussion on the left. Or the UK could continue to leave a large stratum of society to rot. Watch the latest 'Bald and Bankrupt' if you want to know what kind of grey post soviet hellscape many of it's subjects call home.
No answers please to the last few paragraphs, I just wanted to present an alternative impression of Mr. Corbyn, despite my status as an amateur on UK politics.
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16 hours ago, chuckdyke said:
Things become a lot clearer now. Donbass Region means Dumbass Region and they empty prisons to get the expertise required to hot wire enemy vehicles
I'm sure the dead who were given the option of fighting or being killed will appreciate this sentiment.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
A notable exception to the second: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1554584145086619651.html