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fireship4

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Posts posted by fireship4

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

    Dude, define it with sandwiches however you like.  Just don’t try and use principles of collectivism, soft power and international rules based order to justify Russia in Ukraine and we will get along just fine.

    What?!  I can't make a pithy remark until I know what you're on about.

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by fireship4

    13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

    You have clearly never lived in Canada.  

    Nope, notwithstanding, your definition of liberal is very narrow.

    I have known several Canadians, the last one I sat chatting with for a good couple of hours as the sun went down on my weekend on the coast.  He was quite loud, but good to talk to.  Reminded me of Rich Hall now that I think of it.  Was wearing some kind of military surplus (not camoflaged) he bought while here.  I remember very little of our conversation.  Oh I think he had a sandwich he was eating.  Oh wait, I think I might have had one too... in any case no I have never been to Canada.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by fireship4

    3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

    This is insane.  The far right nutjob wants to be right so badly that he is embracing liberals progressive theory?  One cannot cherry pick liberal theory...that is not how it works.  If we are going to somehow ascend it all and embrace brother Russia for the good of all mankind, then one has to do the rest as well.  Immigration, social programs (universal healthcare), social equity, liberal capitalism and of course, climate change.

    Liberalism is so broad, it must be cherry-picked!  And I believe only a minority of branches might demand support for your listed positions.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by fireship4

    25 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:

    I didn't know the USA borders Iraq.

    Yes but if they were of the same mind as Hamas, and had a lust for their blood, they would have flown them back.  Do you see the difference?  I know there were plenty racists that joined up, do you see them doing that in a million years?!

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by fireship4

    2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

    This is true and 35 is very optimistic lower threshold. In some brigades average age of soldiers is 50+ years.

    He was saying it wasn't true.

     

    2 hours ago, kevinkin replacement said:

    You did not talk at all about the Israeli PM, so you left the discussion at a half-step.

    Don't know anything about him, didn't have anything to say, couldn't be bothered to refute your statistically weak output.

     

    2 hours ago, kevinkin replacement said:

    Nonsense? How is it nonsense when you then agree, but add in the qualifier that they are only the most "capable." The capability of the invading nations does not have anything to do with the aggressiveness of invasions by said nations. You just disagreed to disagree here, and didn't even really disagree. Bizarre comment.

     

    Allow me to clarify:

    2 hours ago, fireship4 said:
    3 hours ago, kevinkin replacement said:

    If you paid the smallest amount of attention to the West's actions the past 20 years you'd think they were the most aggressively militaristic party on the planet. Wait a second -- they were. In fact, one of them is bombing civvies right this second!

    Nonsense.  They are simply the most capable.  And Israel is dismantling a terrorist junta whose only purpose is to make fat stacks and kill Jews - and they have a decent amount of support both in the middle east and increasingly in the West.  The IDF go to quite some lengths to avoid killing civilians.

    Did you see the US parade the bodies of Iraqi teens through the streets of New York?

    The West is technologically and ideogically and systematically superior, and if they are successful in their wars it is largely because of this.  Were hamas able or intending to create a society that could sustain scientific endeavor, it could bomb Israel from space!  If Russia had not been opposed by the West, it would have taken Europe, etc. etc.

    As far as the last 20 years goes, I suppose the militarism you speak of refers to Afghanistan and Iraq?  Both under the aegis of one event (though the waters were perhaps muddied on the latter) and both in the same area of the world.  One fought a medievally backward religious regime, the other a rogue dictator who regularly attacked his neighbours.

    But why stick to the last 20 years?  Don't you want to extend it to the cold war when the West was overhyping the Soviet Union to increase defense spending?

     

    2 hours ago, kevinkin replacement said:

    Neocons are not to be trusted, period. That is my bottom line on those people. Victoria Nuland is married to Kagan, a major neocon architect, who has outlined American expansionism/imperialism for the 21st century. Why is it that when these people go places, war and misery follows in their footsteps? Is that just a coincidence? Judging by what they state and print, the answer is clear.

    Do delight us with you knowledge of these people, your analysis of the neocon movement, and why it is bad, and how it can be charactarised as "expansionism/imperialism".  Dictators have no recourse to justice, only to strength - there is nothing that protects them as far as another stronger country coming along and entirely legitimately turning them into a fine mist.

    You are just using emotional language with no content.  Did you see Victoria Nuland running around the middle east killing babies in a dream or something?  Who the hell is that anyway?  All I know about Kagan is that his dad did a really good course at Yale on Ancient Greece, and that he wrote a bunch of books on the subject.

    Make an argument, an actual argument, based on something solid.  Maybe start small.

     

    2 hours ago, kevinkin replacement said:

    If the U.S. is not willing to invest the actual resources required to win a war with Russia, then yes, it should not have involved itself at all. Dogwalking another people into conflict and then playing gotcha with it is insane to me. The U.S. has the material capabilities to lay down some serious material into Ukraine and it has not done it. The West in general has the economic capability to go on a war footing and has not done it. Everything is nominal, and nominal contributions when the other side is very dead-set in their intentions is flagrantly stupid.

    I do not forgive half-measures when hundreds of thousands of people are dying.

    Help or don't help, that was the choice - they were going to resist no matter what.  Dogwalking them into the conflict... who are you f'ing John Pilger?  Is everything the US's fault?  Russia invades Ukraine, there is a good case to be made they would have commited some kind of genocide had they been successful.  They resist this actual imperialism, the US/UK/NATO helps them, but not enough for you, and you know why that is, because you have tapped the Western hivemind datacentre via Alex Jones and the cocaine residue you managed to sift out of your carpet this morning.  Answer: the US cynically sacrifices Ukraine for it's benefit?!  Wow such Russian take!

     

    2 hours ago, kevinkin replacement said:

     

    Quote

     

    In Georgia, Russia moved mostly through two separatist regions which it supported, and has since run directly.  The goverment of Georgia remained intact.

    If the men you refer to had changed the government by force, they would indeed have needed an occupation force, to keep order and resist the inevitable efforts of the population and military at reversing such, and then to carry out "de-nazification" (the destruction of Ukrainian national identity, and notions of identification with Western ideals) something that is now obvious.

     

     

    Don't see much disagreement here. I mean, moving into separatist regions... like they're doing in Ukraine right now? And pray tell, what major partisan efforts are currently ongoing in those Russian-held regions? After Afghanistan and Chechnya, I don't think Russians have much interest or desire to 'occupy' places they are not wanted. They want to bully and flex, fighting isn't really their forte but anyone who understands Russia knew this already, though a thousand videos of military disasters is pretty sufficient evidence just as well.

    You don't see why invading and holding in a seperatist region is different from a total invasion?  And I don't know what's going on in SO and Abkhazia (they are probably not allowing many reporters in to nose aroun), but a resistance is harder to maintain when you have no overland route for supplies, the sea is full of Ruskies, the people in the land who were against secession were driven out, and the milita guys fighting you have help from the Russian military and SF stationed in your country.

     

    2 hours ago, kevinkin replacement said:

    Almost a year ago, I stated that offenses in this war were almost suicidal and one should avoid engaging Russia in static warfare due to their massive artillery advantage. I was correct. I stated that the Russian economy was not buckling beneath the sanctions. I was correct. I stated that non-West spheres of the world were not responding to West's compulsion to sanction Russia. That was correct. Actually, so correct that we now see Western imports into Russian border-nations, suggesting not even some in the West care anymore, and we see other nations welcoming Putin on their stages. I stated that this notion of Russia running out of materials for anything is a pipedream as they have significant infrastructure to support war efforts. That was correct. I stated that the economic contributions of the West involve stockpiles which necessarily dwindle, and if you do not have a replacement in line for when that happens, bad things are going to come to a head. That is coming to a head right now. My models are fine, thank you.

    "I was correct": you keep saying it, but saying it doesn't make it true.

     

    1 hour ago, kevinkin replacement said:

    When something does not work, then you need to reassess. I do not see any desire to reassess and I find that very troubling.

    You prefer the West to **** or get off the pot is what you're saying?  Because you assess that what they are doing won't work?  Well so what?  Your opinion is worth as much as your analysis reveals: a fart in the wind.  Bring some insight, tell us something we don't know, show us your model of what you know the US to be doing on what timescale and how it might be best to force Ukraine to negotiate away land to Russia under threat of withdrawing assistance.

    I should have had my breakfast by now you tiresome fellow!

    0

    How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Shock Force 2

    Posted

    1 hour ago, kevinkin replacement said:

    The U.S. has immense soft power in regards to the internals of the nation itself. People love America. They see it on T.V. and in the movies and want to go there. It's, legitimately, very much the light on the hill for many, and a land of milk and honey from which opportunities abound. Compared to most places on Earth, it is basically Heaven. I mean that seriously. Even compared to places like Europe, USA blows everyone out of the water. 

    Are you writing from the early 2000s?  Hello!  Please tell my dad to shave my head next time he cuts my hair!

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by fireship4

    1 hour ago, kevinkin replacement said:

    You couldn't go to any given unit and interview soldiers and only be coming across 35-45 year old men

    Speculation, not obvious, just a statement with no context.

     

    1 hour ago, kevinkin replacement said:

    Naftali Bennett and former-German Chancellor Schroeder have stated peace was on the table and that the Americans were the ones who 'ended' those talks. A lot of rumors have been flying around about the nature of these talks and why they suddenly concluded like this, but those are two very legitimate sources.

    Schroeder, Putin's personal friend?  To some extent responsible for Germany's energy dependence on Russia?  And peace on what terms?

     

    1 hour ago, kevinkin replacement said:

    If you paid the smallest amount of attention to the West's actions the past 20 years you'd think they were the most aggressively militaristic party on the planet. Wait a second -- they were. In fact, one of them is bombing civvies right this second!

    Nonsense.  They are simply the most capable.  And Israel is dismantling a terrorist junta whose only purpose is to make fat stacks and kill Jews - and they have a decent amount of support both in the middle east and increasingly in the West.  The IDF go to quite some lengths to avoid killing civilians.

    Did you see the US parade the bodies of Iraqi teens through the streets of New York?

     

    1 hour ago, kevinkin replacement said:

    Leaders lie, and they lie most predominantly to their own people. I won't pretend to know Putin's goals at this point and, like in the West, I'd take anything he says to his own people with a grain of salt. I just gave you the above information, though, to demonstrate they were absolutely not his goals early on.

    What information?

     

    1 hour ago, kevinkin replacement said:

    Actions by Americans, particularly those with ties to things like PNAC and general neocon-funfair, also clearly demonstrate an intention in Washington to drive Ukraine headfirst into a meatgrinder.

    A neocon should want to give Americans something to believe in by fighting for a democratic state abroad if they followed someone like Leo Strauss.

     

    1 hour ago, kevinkin replacement said:

    I expect to see such reverses in statements about this war just as well

    In what context?  "We were wrong to help defend this country we promised to defend against an invading force of barbarians"? "Should have just saved the money and let them rot behind a new iron curtain"?

     

    1 hour ago, kevinkin replacement said:

    The 150,000 men beelining straight to the capital a la Georgia 2008 also don't really agree with any sort of occupation plan either, just by common sense.

    In Georgia, Russia moved mostly through two separatist regions which it supported, and has since run directly.  The goverment of Georgia remained intact.

    If the men you refer to had changed the government by force, they would indeed have needed an occupation force, to keep order and resist the inevitable efforts of the population and military at reversing such, and then to carry out "de-nazification" (the destruction of Ukrainian national identity, and notions of identification with Western ideals) something that is now obvious.  If they didn't understand that then, it was because they expected Ukrainians to fold like Russians have been taught to, and that their government wasn't real anyway, just a US/Anglo puppet, like the Russians have in their proxies.

     

    Your post has unsound reasoning and does not read like the words of someone who knows what they are talking about, rather someone who has a lens they view each event through which you fight for.  It is fine to just use logic or google stuff to -refute- statements, I would say that can work out OK if you did that properly, but you could actually commit yourself to creating some workable models which bear some resemblance to how things actually work in real life and learning some in-depth history on a subject.  What you are doing here is just advocating a straw-man image of the West through cherry-picking and non-arguments.

    3

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by fireship4

    On 10/22/2023 at 12:05 AM, Beleg85 said:

    Short but nontheless interesting piece from propagandist Sladkov.

    Russian propaganda try to convince audience that it took measures to use Tuvinians as "Russian Navajo", using their hectic language instead of code to communicate between units. I heard different opinions as to how widespread this phenomena actually is in muscovite army- it doesn't look like they took systemic effort to employ it along whole theatre, in manner of US Navy in WWII. Code talkers from various minorities (they have a wide selection to choose from, admittedly) for now seem to be ad hoc solution taken by various commanders.

    Worth to note Ukrainians use Hungarians and Huculs in the same manner.

     

     

    "Хуйзнаетtalkers/Huiznaettalkers"?

    "Хуйз нает": "Hui zna-et": "Who the f*ck knows".

    Quote

    MV5BYWU3NmIzMmQtZjE2Mi00NDlkLWI2NDMtZWZm

     

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    3 hours ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

    I agree with Haiduk and Steve that there won't be any pro-russian insurgency in Crimea in case of UKR troops going in hot. But, yes, it is going to be hard to govern, for sure. Something good to look forward to anyway. 

    It is quite hard to predict how the events will unfold exactly from now on. That raid was definitely fun though, even if only symbolical.

    Your last post was February 28th 2022, and it has been pinned up on the right of the thread under 'popular posts' since then,

    Quote

    after being detained on 24th by police and FSB

    Everything OK now?  Relatively speaking?

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by fireship4

    37 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

    The Russians are causing the West FAR more damage and trouble than most people realize.

    Yes I get the feeling if and when their systems of destabilisation break down, things across the West might start to work a little better.  On the other hand, constant stresses and criticism do encourage us to firm up our ideals and seek workable answers to difficult questions and social conflicts.

    EDIT: Although China is a bigger threat in other ways, I don't feel they would have the same effect in the propaganda sphere, off the top of my head it would be more about building relationships and economic leverage/bribery.

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

    They are banned by constitution, but there are many loopholes.

    I found the episode, if it's of interest:

    Mark Galeotti - Sat, 29 Apr 2023 - In Moscow's Shadows 98: Dogs of War (and Racoons)

    https://www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/12746196-in-moscow-s-shadows-98-dogs-of-war-and-racoons.mp3

    Wherein, with regard to the Russian constitution, article 5, @ 00:04:10:

    Quote

    "The creation and activities of public associations, whose aims and actions are aimed at a forced change of the fundamental principles of the constitutional system, and at violating the integrity of the Russian Federation, at undermining Its security, at setting up armed units, and at instigating social, racial, national, or religious strife, shall be prohibited".

    He makes the point that Wagner was not in violation of the spirit of this law, and then moves on to Article 259 of the Russian criminal code, @ 00:05:20:

    Quote

    'Those people who are convicted of organising, training or financing mercenary groups face 4-8 years deprivation of liberty, those people who do so on the basis of an official position, 7-15 years, and those people who participate in mercenary operations, 3-7 years.'

    Well that seems pretty cut and dried - but there is a little note after that article that says this:

    'A mercenary shall be deemed to mean a person who acts for the purpose of getting a material reward, and who is not a citizen of the state, in whose armed conflict he participates, who does not reside, on a permanent basis on its territory, and who is also not fulfilling official duties'.

    He suggests territory may be the relevant point, and refers to the preceding annexations of territory, and that they (were) acting on behalf of the state.

     

    5 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

    Of course this is Russia, so legal ramifications are valid as long as ruling mafia wants them to be.

    He does make a similar point earlier in the program.  It brings to mind two factors I've read about here and there: that Russia is very bureaucratic, with many laws that are actually followed, and doing things by the book can be important for avoiding blame; and that things may be illegal but selectively enforced.  This is something that is generally frowned upon in a country where the rule of law is seen as important.  It seems plausible to me, for a system to work positively, laws should only be enacted if they can be enforced, and then they must be enforced, in part to avoid it becoming selective.  For the similar reasons laws should be unambiguous.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

    Funny- still illegal under Russian law.

    Mark Galleoti read out the relevant law in an episode of 'In Moscow's Shadow's', and IIRC, he made the point that it says such structures are illegal if they act against the state.

     

    2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

    like cheese left on July sun...  ...perhaps it may ultimately seed doubts about aims of this war into some minds.

    Either you are mixing your metaphors or I will avoid Polish cheese.  Perhaps it could ferment some ideas, or curdle some suspicions :P

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