fireship4
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Posts posted by fireship4
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3 hours ago, fireship4 said:
I believe in fact I was suspected of the same...
2 hours ago, Slaughterhouse-Five said:And then he starts to suspect you.
I didn't mean by @Grigb.
2 hours ago, Slaughterhouse-Five said:If I understood correctly, then Sherlock has unquestioned authority in logic on this forum
He started posting last month, after joining in 2011.
Let's not waste any more of the thread with this you guys, it is not worth it.
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1 hour ago, Grigb said:
I mean it is obvious that in last several comments you pushed two RU propaganda talking points, quote:
- There is no such thing like "RU nationalists"
- In short, the Russian Federation has weapons and ammunition to the ass"
On top of that you tried to hide the fact you are Russian, quote I'm ordinary man in one Eastern-european dictatorship.
Grigb, if I am correct, you have provided some interesting translations, for which I thank you.
Your points against @Slaughterhouse-Five :
The first I think is a misunderstanding of what he wrote - he said there is no such thing as RU nationalists, only RU imperialists.
The second was apparently entirely a quote from a RU forum of some kind.
The third is ascribing intent without evidence.
The purpose of any real RU propaganda would be to create division, in fact to denegrate the idea of truth itself. It would be instructive to know if someone was a propagandist of course, but this is not something that will be obvious, and making accusations of this sort with no evidence only serves it's purpose. I believe in fact I was suspected of the same simply because I have a 'Russian' quote as my signature.
In the end, the origin of any specific idea does not matter - they should be critiqued on their own merit. Of course the technique of the 'firehose' of random stories with truth mixed in is also a propaganda strategy, and things that are true can be grouped together to serve a narrative if received uncritically, but the solution is in the way you assimilate, critique and sort through it, how you choose and create sources etc.
This is why I find the idea of 'useful idiots' etc. damaging if carried too far.
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Shtrafbat 2022!
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4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Heard this interesting bit on the radio today by a total fluke. Go to the 40:18 mark and you'll hear a guy named Tetlock describing exactly what went wrong with the bulk of the experts who called this war so horribly wrong even though I'm pretty sure this was recorded before the war:
https://freakonomics.com/podcast/season-11-episode-43/
It's really interesting stuff. There's more from Tetlock on Freakonomics from the past about how bad forecasting is and why the people making wrong calls don't face "punishment" for being bad at their jobs.
Steve
Let me guess, having not listened to the podcast nor looked up the guest... is it about forcasters not having skin in the game? About putting their money where there mouth is making for much better prediction? I say so because I think I listened to an advocate of something similar on EconTalk some time ago. A great podcast by the way.
24 minutes ago, dan/california said:That is a FANTASTIC thread. But could we please ask google to translate the whole thing, instead of hitting the button over and over again. And yes I realize I am complaining about UI issues on technological miracle...
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4 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:
On multiple occasions I've tried to find the % of Russian military by region both serving and KIA/WIA and can't find it. I've seen numerous articles stating that Russian casualties are significantly higher for ethnic minorities and remote regions than that from more populated and progressive Western areas. But nothing definitive.
In addition to those links provided by @cesmonkey there is this picture also linked by Kamil Galeev:
EDIT: You can use this site to help translate the text (you might want to use this version of the image as it is bigger without the English notation).
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2 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:
Alexey Khlopotov (a.k.a. Gur Khan, the Russian tank commentator) says that his blog has now been blocked in the Russian Federation
https://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2022/06/gur-khan-attacks.htmlThis portion of his latest post is worth a read:
QuotePast accomplishments don't count. The truth is not needed by officials and security forces in Russia. She pricks their greasy eyes very painfully and makes the remnants of a sold conscience tremble. But idiots will never understand that the processes of globalization cannot be stopped, the information war (and not only the information war), being wrong, cannot be won. What have they achieved? Never mind! On the 8th they blocked, and on the 9th the traffic only grew! Personally, I find it funny to watch the attempts of the authorities to smear the Fuhrer from blood and ****. Think about this: the wheel of History, the course of historical processes cannot be changed or stopped by anyone. Six months, a year, five years will pass, but it will definitely turn around and crush all those who are now trying to create repressions: officials, prosecutors, judges, KGB agents, cops and all their lackeys-informers. It has been so many times, so it is, and so it will be. Leaders come and go and Russia is eternal! And the Russian people are eternal! They have already earned the stigma of eternal damnation, just like the executioners of the 1930s received. Neither you nor your children-grandchildren can wash it off. In the beautiful Russia of the future, your descendants will prefer to forget you. -
29 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:
Thank you for that. So refreshing to hear an opinion from someone who actually knows what he's talking about.
The video suggests it might be worth it depending how many are sent. The weight argument (in short the Leopard 2A4 weighs too much compared to T-72 etc.) is based entirely on general restrictions set by an international container transport and logistics service provider, not by an assessment of logistical factors in time of war. In any case the Ukrainians want them... saying 'you don't need them they are too heavy' is a little unconvincing.
A useful article on what heavy weapons have been sent to Ukraine despite being over a month out of date: https://newlinesinstitute.org/ukraine/what-heavy-weapons-the-west-has-and-hasnt-sent-ukraine/
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27 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:
That's my point. We don't. Hence my irritation about remarks which suggest the opposite. Get it?
On 6/10/2022 at 7:23 AM, Aragorn2002 said:"In reality Berlin is supplying large amounts of weapons; not as much as the US, but comparable to other European countries. Experts say Germany ranks somewhere in the middle." according to the BBC. It's a safe bet Germany will have paid the most and Poland will have profited the most of all European countries when the dust has settled.
I think the pressure upon Germany by Poland (as usual) and Ukraine is more political/financial than something else and aimed at weakening the German positon within EU/NATO for future use. Preparing those Leopards and Marders will take months and months. And will take away much needed production and maintenance capacity that the Bundeswehr badly needs itself now. The Bundeswehr is in full swing at the moment and not a day too soon.
Apart from that the German economy can't manage without the Russian energy yet. Hard fact of life. And if the German economy goes down, the whole of Europe goes with it.
It's not the remarks which suggest it, it's the popular consensus (on which I welcome debate), with the M270 being a recent case in point. Germany is not unique in receiving criticism on this front, and as you deemed them the most democratic state in Europe they should be able to handle it. Accusing Ukraine of playing politics to weaken Germany's position in Europe seems a bit of a stretch, given the fact they are currently on fire.
Measuring arms supplied in terms of cost ignores how useful they are on the battlefield, and calling Germany's dependence on Russian natural gas a hard fact of life is a bit strange, seeing as it was a choice.
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35 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:
This is not my view, but the impression I am getting from many of my fellow countrymen.
Fair enough, it's the subhuman bit I have a problem with to be clear - to clarify a little I do believe that there are people who are so far from being open-minded on some topics that they are almost unreachable, and that is a problem (which may lead you for example to choose not to allow them to come and live in your country) but that is due to ideas they have or do not have, not some inherant deficiency.
I'll get back to you when David Deutsch publishes his forthcoming book on what is often called 'irrationality'.
22 minutes ago, dan/california said:So we COULD admit that the only likely opponent for a land war in Europe is currently wrecking itself in eastern Ukraine
I agree more or less, when I hear about countries saying they can't give this or that because it would weaken their armed forces in case of conflict, OK I get it, but in some sense that conflict is here, now, and you either fight Russia when it is weak or wait until it's strong. You could say they are holding back in case Russia fully mobilises and actually attacks Europe proper... but I would take a lot of convincing.
I guess I don't know enough about Russia to say how much of a danger it would be post Putin/Putinism, but if they aren't defeated we might not find out. I have a feeling that a lot of things will be better in the world in general if that 'palace of ****' as it was recently called is finally washed into the sewer.
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24 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:
For Germany the whole affair is a big inconvenience. Except for the sanction effects and some refugees, the only real way it would massively hurt Germany is if someone annoys the Russians enough to end the world, which is what Scholz wants to avoid. Other than that, what mostly changes is that they have to get their gas from elsewhere now and are more dependent on the US than on Russia. Which is fine for now, but just wait until the next election, when there is a good chance that the borderline subhuman rednecks, who don't believe in evolution because they are at the beginning of it, vote someone into office who may as well be Putin.
And some have a weird impression of the South in the US... borderline subhuman? Because they voted for Trump? Since that kind of language defeats the entire idea of bothering with a democratic system in the first place - that people can have their ideas changed (and less relevant, that they are the best judge of how politics is affecting them), and it is ideas that are the problem to be dealt with, and that the idea that people can be subhuman is more problematic than Trumpism, I don't think I need to deal with the point any further.
If Germany sees this only in terms of short term economic benefit and loss, and sees only death in resisting Russia (not to mention nuclear power for perhaps the same reason) then it deserves all the criticism it gets. Do their politicians understand that Russia is opposed to democracy and would happily ride all the way back to the Reichstag if they thought they could do it?
25 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:If they only see themselves as victims, who were left on their own devices while fighting for their life...
Then let's not do that.
25 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:Btw, what does this mean?
«Универсальный пульт, положи на док-станцию» - Валерий
It's a quote by a Russian interior decorator.
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43 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:
But you don't expect the person who's life you just saved, to tell you that you suck.
Alright metaphors can be finnicky, so either I can say 'they are dead' or 'some of them died, and the ones you saved are telling you that you suck', 'it's too late for the ones you didn't save to tell you how much you suck' etc. etc. but the point is, who cares how grateful they are? Either they should be helped or not, either it is right or not. Saying they are not grateful enough suggests it isn't being done for the right reason in the first place, or that those reasons are too lightly held.
We are talking after all about life and death, the choice whether to help a people under attack from a backward authoritarian cancer state, about whether you believe that is your duty to do or not. Popular opinion currently judges German and French (and to a lesser extent the West's) efforts as not good enough, not in line with their words and the principles they are expected to hold. Asking them to be grateful... it's in poor taste.
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5 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:
We don't owe you anything, so just be a little more grateful.
They do I think, if they believe in anything at all. And you don't ask someone to be grateful if you save their life, you do it or you don't do it.
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8 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:
So the Nazi reference of Wagner (actually it was his sister who was really the hardcore antisemite)...
Perhaps you are thinking of Nietzsche's sister, who according to popular wisdom (apparently via translators and editors of his works in the 1950s) made his work more amenable to nazi ideology - though this is disputed.
3 hours ago, danfrodo said:Both metric and imperial systems work and have lots of success to attest to this. Except that one is really f--ing stupid and the other is based on the number of fingers you have as well as being based on our actual base10 number system. While the other is based on things 12, 16, 60, 5280, and other nonsense. Two particularly stupid things that unfortunately are too baked in to ever change is our clocks (60 seconds, 60 minutes, 24 hours??) and degrees (360?? wtf?). arbitrary, hard to work with numbers. We are so used to these that we don't realize just how stupid these are. If they were all some kind of base10 it would all be 10x easier to work with.
Those 'arbitrary' numbers are in many cases much easier to divide into common fractions. What is quater past the hour on a decimal clock?
Standard weights which defined both systems had to be taken out and compared with a local copy, and these changed over time. Metric has some nice constants built into it, such as 1kg of water taking up 1 litre of volume, but I would guess the problem might have been more about easy convertibility, the simplicity of base 10 being used across the whole system without regard to application, and which system was ascendant at the time.
More recently metric standards were converted to being defined by physical constants, like the distance it takes light to travel in a certain time, and I believe imperial standards are defined as multiples of metric standards.
Advocates exist for conversion to base 12 numbering systems (dozenal or something).
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1 hour ago, Fenris said:
Long wait for DE systems
Colourful language in english is a little jarring being so used to hearing Ukrainian
Thomas C. Theiner on twitter (@noclador) says the German M270 is identical to the Italian and French versions, that they can fire the GMLRS missles (if they are the ones in question), and that the German army ordered many themselves, and have pictures of them being used on their website, suggesting the Germans are... wrong:
https://nitter.net/noclador/status/1534636945300652039#m
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3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:
Victory Through Air Power!
From a bit of searching you mean the book by Alexander P. de Seversky? Interesting bit of history, it became a Disney animated short (as well as a Buggs Bunny bit called Victory through Hare Power apparently heheh).
This was the closest thing I could find to the image you mentioned:
Pg. 237, 'Aerial Interdiction' 1994, Eduard Mark - PDF.
[EDIT: Can't help but post some other possibilities, though I can't find one that really matches the style in your reply:
https://www.sarahsundin.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/AAF-Interdiction-1944-1024x637.jpg
https://markbielski.com/cms/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Breakout_Normandy_Big_Picture-960x732.jpg]
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From the article:
QuoteIn March, Ukrainian forces said Maj Gen Vitaly Gerasimov had been killed outside the country's second city of Kharkiv. However, on 23 May Russian state media said he had been awarded a state honour and dismissed reports of his death.
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11 hours ago, sburke said:
Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, First Deputy Commander Of The 41st Army
Isn't this disputed?
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The Sverodonetsk 'basin' with the corresponding BMU hightmaps overlaid. .KMZ file for loading in GoogleEarth desktop and browser (Projects -> New project -> Import .KML file from computer) versions: https://www.dropbox.com/s/hyfvgg3qqoq5x78/Sverodonetsk.kmz?dl=0
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@Osinttechnical thread on the subject of the defensibility of Sverodonetsk: https://nitter.net/Osinttechnical/status/1533249952809463809#m
Included are pictures, a terrain map, and a link to a thread in a similar vein by @DefMon3, which itself contains a link to his livemap, and a link to an unsubstantiated claim that the entirety of Sverodonetsk has been retaken(!)
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Some points made on a recent 'War in Ukraine' video as to the advantages of holding Sverodonetsk:
- The west bank is higher allowing direct fire support and observation of the city.
- The industrial area is defensible.
- It will tie up RU forces that might otherwise reposition.
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An update to my previous post on the Newsweek article about Putin having had treatment for cancer, again via the reddit live thread:
QuoteAfter this story was published, the National Security Council sent Newsweek a statement attributable to NSC Spokesperson Adrienne Watson: "Reports that any such intelligence community assessments exist or that they have been briefed to the president are not true."
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Found via the reddit live thread, Newsweek is reporting that the latest comprehensive report by the US intelligence community states that Putin has 're-emerged after undergoing treatment in April for advanced cancer', quoting three unnamed 'U.S. intelligence leaders who have read the reports'. 'The assessments also confirm that there was an assassination attempt on Putin's life in March, the officials say.'
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-putin-treated-cancer-april-us-intelligence-report-says-1710357
I guess some group thought he was getting long in the tooth and irradiated him through a wall, as is their wont.
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Incredibly, in akd's video above, from three minutes in you can see the artillery shells mid-flight.
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On 5/29/2022 at 3:05 PM, Harmon Rabb said:
The Japanese company making miniature Russian soldiers can make some miniature tanks based on this image.
Just to correct this from Sunday, the artist, Tomas Upskas, is from Lithuania and the scene they are from ("Brothers in Arms", seen below) is or will be going to auction with the proceeds going to help the Ukrainian army, according to this article: https://designyoutrust.com/2022/05/lithuanian-artist-created-a-collectible-series-of-miniature-figurines-of-russian-war-looters/
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
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