They already have experience with Russian false flags. This was less than a year ago so unlikely anyone has forgotten.
On 29 July, 33 alleged mercenaries from the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, were arrested in a sanatorium near Minsk.[93] Lukashenko accused Russia of lying about the arrested "mercenaries", saying "So far there is no open warfare, no shooting, the trigger has not yet been pulled, but an attempt to organize a massacre in the center of Minsk is already obvious."[104] Belarusian authorities claimed that Tikhanovsky was working with Russians to destabilize Belarus.[104] All but one of the mercenaries, who is a Belarusian national and remains in custody, were deported to Russia on 14 August despite a request from Ukraine for their extradition.[105]