sburke

As McMasters said in a recent interview. Stop falling into the Putin playbook of threats of escalation. There are logical reasons for proceeding with things like AD units instead of aircraft, but this constant concern of Russian nukes is just Putin's bluster. NATO needs to double down on supplying both the war effort and a commitment to help Ukraine rebuild while keeping Russia economically isolated.

it is the Jack Reacher response to interrogation... say nothing, it really throws them off.

Yes and no. With the fall of the Soviet Union I think many of us in the west figured there would be some time where things were pretty chaotic. it is the nature of the collapse of empires. I think there may have been a lot of wishful thinking on our part, but it was pretty clear that Russian aggression didn't end with the fall of the USSR. However it did get significantly weaker allowing folks to make excuses and let down their guard. What I think many of us .. well okay I learned from this . . is assuming what your adversary might do based on your own perception of risk versus reward doesn't work. I don't know what Putin weighed as important in this gamble, but clearly it was something I didn't include. That immediately translates to possible actions by China. What Russian managed to accomplish as @The_Captnoted is a whole new perception of our ability to respond with force. We can't rely on our own judgements of risk versus reward. I am betting somewhere in the halls of the CCCP someone is saying ' f'n Russians." For the Russians that means NATO just got a big oomph and whether or not Ukraine joins NATO you'll see a lot more joint exercises, arms deals etc. Russia/USSR lost that arms race once. With a GDP smaller than Italy's BEFORE sanctions that isn't a race they have any hope of even qualifying to compete in.

but can you imagine how those guys in the back of that truck feel right now and how happy they will be to be told, yeah here's another truck so get back on the road and head where you were going....

nice quote by Nikita, but in the end... they lost. Badly I don't think the sanctions are Russia's worst problem. Nationalizing assets and removing Intellectual property protections is what will keep them isolated. Western businesses are mostly very risk averse. Stealing all those planes was not a good long term move.

oh for fk's sake. What is he going to invade with? That's like the neighbor's 5 year old threatening to punch me. They'll never even get to Ukraine's western border. This is just bluster for them to feel powerful. They aren't. The emperor isn't wearing any clothes. Hell there was a guy from Norway here posting about whether his unit might actually have held the line if Russia had invaded as the Russian army is so inept. here is a realistic Russian threat. Putin Retaliates by Blocking Biden Family Vacations to Moscow (msn.com)

I guess what I don't get is what outcome from this war do you see their being absolutely no Russia or threat? Let's assume best case scenario Russian army collapses and is routed. Russian gov't falls, Putin disappears in some basement never to be seen again. In the midst of all that Ukraine liberates all occupied territory including Crimea. So how does that insure Russia will never do a provocative act versus Ukraine (I take invade off the table as they simply will not in any way I can imagine ever be capable of that again). There is no "end of Russia" scenario unless you are talking genocide. Russia will still be there. Weak, but still there.

this is where I differ with you. In 5 years Russia will still be incapable of attacking Ukraine. Ukraine will be stronger, Russia will be weaker. Ukraine is showing RIGHT NOW a defensive alliance wasn't a requirement. Chechnya isn't Ukraine. What Russia may want doesn't really matter. It is already clear that is way beyond their capability. In 5 years Russia will still be struggling to keep their economy going. They will be a bit too busy to worry about Ukraine. Seriously I think they are done. To refer back to @The_Captpost earlier. NATO will have to be pivoting to the threat from China. Russia is just gonna be a rump state that China buys their natural resources on the cheap and probably pays in Yuan no less.

Photo shows officials taking down the Russian flag after Putin gets the boot from Council of Europe (msn.com)

yes and no they don't. I think the Russians have answered those questions repeatedly. My wife has a better sense of direction and she can get lost a few blocks away from our house. In fairness her car has a mapping program has us living across the street.

I think they only shelled it, they don't control it. When we hit the point that Ukraine re asserts control over Kherson it is pretty much game over for Russia.

Clearly it was and it showed your utter hatred of cats. You didn't even include them. Sheesh. Back of the economic front.... a view of just one example of how Putin's actions will reverberate on the Russia economy for years to come. ‘You’re seeing the rule of law basically torched’: Russia nationalizes its civil aircraft fleet (msn.com)

Your military is kicking their a55. Agreeing to a ceasefire, and Russian withdrawal and all Russia gets is you don't join NATO is a humiliating defeat for them. Putin can spin it however he wants but Russia won't be invading anyone for a while. If anything Russia may have difficulty maintaining its current borders. Russia is done, period. No one is looking at them as a heavy weight anymore, especially their partner China. Suppose they do negotiate a ceasefire and withdrawal. Then May Day rolls around. Ukraine will have already held its victory parade and have begun rebuilding. Meanwhile Moscow has a May Day parade with their armored vehicles towed by tractors borrowed from Ukraine as they don't have the financial resources to restore their military. No access to western technology or markets - Nationalizing western companies is a long term bad move for Russia that means likely at least a decade before western companies even consider investing again regardless of sanctions. The cost of this war for Russia is going to be years calculating. I think your experience so far is leaving you unprepared for the new reality. The balance of power has shifted. If Russia can't totally defeat Ukraine (and it clearly can't) then Russia has no ability to threaten Ukraine anymore. Russia has been reduced to a meme. Don't sacrifice your future for fear of an enemy who is fading from the world stage.

You missed the point. A coup represents Ukraine not being a successful democracy. Democracies don't settle political discussions with military coups. For Russia the failure of democracy is EXACTLY what they want in Ukraine.

guaranteed way to never get in NATO or EU and it would play well in Russia.

Actually he has said a lot more than that but he'll try to pretend he didn't on the financial side Wall Street’s Skittish Attitude Toward Putin Pays Off As Russia Default Looms (msn.com)

Been wondering about all these Russians confiscating (read stealing) personal cell phones. laptops etc. Once they are done watching porn I wonder how many are catching western news on the state of the war and the impact on morale.

c'mon guys you are missing the most obvious conclusion. This is the f'n Russians we are talking about. They are either lost or someone just found a Best Buy they can raid.

and frankly militarily Ukraine can afford to give quite a few concessions. The Russian Army is going to be pretty defanged after this. To your point what Ukraine is focusing on is the economic rebuild and human cost. The Ukrainian army will modernize more and become more effective with less while Russia... well Russia tries to figure out where to buy tires.

The last bit about Russian demographics is a long term problem not directly related to any of those previous issues. Poor health care, a high level of alcoholism and a few others in there have been causing a declining birth rate in Russia. There was a period where that was reduced but mostly from immigration changes, not birth rates. Not an issue specifically Russian. Japan has a similar problem due to a lack of immigration. In 2006, in a bid to compensate for the country's demographic decline, the Russian government started simplifying immigration laws and launched a state program "for providing assistance to voluntary immigration of ethnic Russians from former Soviet republics".[42] In August 2012, as the country saw its first demographic growth since the 1990s, President Putin declared that Russia's population could reach 146 million by 2025, mainly as a result of immigration.[43] New citizenship rules introduced in April 2014 allowing eligible citizens from former Soviet republics to obtain Russian citizenship, have gained strong interest among Russian-speaking residents of those countries (i.e. Russians, Germans, Belarusians and Ukrainians).[ Demographics of Russia - Wikipedia

well that could only happen if Russia was able to restore itself as a world power. Problem with that as we are finding out is... they haven't really been a world power for a while. As the Wizard of Oz said - pay no attention to that man behind the curtain. I am more worried that internal upheaval in Russia will end up with a humanitarian crisis that draws others in. but enough of that. Trying to respect Haiduk's request to keep the thread more focused (and apparently failing so far )

I believe the total was 6 and yeah much as I might wish it, there has been no evidence of the IL 76s. There were reports that they were enroute and turned back which would make sense.

Up until now I've been adding the dead ones, but yeah makes sense to include these guys

I suspect some of that is true but haven't seen any confirmation. there were a couple pics of damaged railways but nothing to note who was responsible. there was also a post about Russian officers replacing officers in units, but no confirmation of that either (and that would be a phenomenally bad idea) I strongly suspect Putin wanted/wants their troops in but some folks in Belarus know that would mean the fall of Lukashenko's gov't.

maybe but the Sackler family challenged that perception. I think their commercial ran something like - Religion? nah WE supply the opiate of the masses. Purdue Pharma. We make you not feel your pain. or sumfink