sburke

Well I am sorry, I don't respect your president he is a liar by his own admission and the instigator of all the violence that has led to 5000 dead. Putin however is not Russia anymore than Bush is America. We had many many protests about the US invasion of Iraq. It is time the Russian people distanced themselves from Putin's policies. Russia has absolutely no right to inject men and weapons into Ukraine. You don't like the current government, then deal with that on a political state to state basis, not via a proxy war. The separatists do not represent the people of Donbass, the failure of novorussiya proved that so much that even Putin has dropped the term.

The whole circumstances of the civilian casualties at the bus are tragic, but given the intensity of the shelling by both sides and the propensity (well documented by OSCE) of separatists firing from residential areas, this is bound to happen. The only surprising thing is it hasn't happened more. The answer is for Russia to close the border to all military arms and force everyone to the negotiating table. If Russia were to actually do this in short order you'd likely see sanctions lifted and Ukraine would also have to comply to insure continued aid from the West. It really is in Putin's hands and he could close that border in an hour if he so desired.

I am assuming that is the Euroscape mod? If so the cages are there, just not visible (if you look closely in game you can actually still see traces of them).

Just as an example, this guy obviously carries a little more clout than I do. It is not an official govt position by any means, but this guy does have some influence and is making the argument to back Ukraine financially. Whether it will actually translate to action, who knows. Given current suspicions on Russian escalation though I would not be surprised. The west is not going to allow Russia to win this by default. It would send absolutely the wrong message to our friends and allies. http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/08/news/soros-ukraine-europe-50-billion/index.html

No that was a suggestion as to a possible action. I did not say it was something they actually are doing yet.

Well considering the complaints coming from separatist leadership, recruiting has been an abysmal failure so I don't see why suddenly they are going to volunteer now. Regarding finances, simply an aid package. The U.S. has the capability to float money to the ukrainian govt to meet their debt payments and keep the economy going. It would have to be sizable and there would likely be some complaining in the US, but the republicans are in power in congress and they were pushing Obama to provide lethal aid when he would prefer not to. I think he would support a financial aid package if congress were to push that through so now you have both parties in the US committing to it. Look at the amount of money the US dumped into Iraq, we are talking trillions. The only impediment would be Ukraine really needs to fix its transparency and corruption issues. It is making progress, but needs to do more.

Unfortunately only folks who think Russia is in the "eastern camp" is Russia. China is going to take Putin to the cleaners. Why do you think there was suddenly a deal with China that Russia has been negotiating for years that suddenly gets struck right as Russia is in trouble? Do you really think China suddenly said "we have to back Russia as a united front against America"? Or do you think Russia had to make concessions due to it needing the deal more than China? And I really do think long term China will make a grab for Siberia, even if it is done by supporting indigenous groups autonomy from Moscow.

I don't think I understand the hybrid scenario, could you elaborate? As to option 1, I wouldn't count on that. The west might very well call Russia's bluff and back Ukraine financially. There are members of the US congress pushing for lethal aid. I don't think it would be a stretch to see them push a financial package to keep Ukraine in the fight. Germany has unilaterally already extended additional financial aid.

I think Dan said that, but I'll second it... or is that now third? Rosneft struggled to make their debt payments in December and more are coming due this year. If the economy is so stable and not really in trouble, why is the leadership so frantic? Somebody up there at the top thinks it is a problem. Actually quite a few people and they have made public statements about it. It isn't just the west that is saying the Russian economy is in trouble, your own bankers are saying it.

Do you remember the issues that arose after 9/11? There are a lot of poisonous materials in modern structures, asbestos, various chemical compounds etc. Reduce that through constant pummeling into a fine powder and then go live in it for a bit. I would expect a variety of respiratory ailments. I seriously doubt Russia would consider an escalation to chemical agents, the threat that even giving up on the airport constitutes just doesn't warrant it. It would be far less dangerous to just commit regular armed forces. Yeah the west would be pissed off, but if it comes out there was a chemical agent used, the entire west would be firmly united for a serious escalation.

I am betting the cost for you going is significantly less than what it would cost me (strictly speaking air fare here.). I also think an American strolling around that area is going to find a less than friendly welcome. I do recall the vice news guy getting tossed in that creepy little jail the separatists have.

I am sorry, but I'd like to change that essay subject to Australian Sheep Population Explosion, Direct Correlation to Aussie Population Growth or sign of Stuka getting his lifetime Viagra prescription

Or I can trust what I hear from the OSCE. I am most definitely not gonna go wandering into a war zone. http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/daily-updates

LOL I think you are going to find almost unanimous opinion agreeing with you on Fox. Ever watch the Daily Show? Here is a piece that will likely raise some hackles, but it explores the possible reasons why so many people adhere to Fox and the mis information that comes from that source. It is actually kind of appropriate for this discussion. http://www.alternet.org/story/154875/the_science_of_fox_news:_why_its_viewers_are_the_most_misinformed

LOL yeah, sorry Rusknight I know these guys are a big media outlet, but most folks I know regard them to be about the same level as Life news. Check out some of their reporting on Obama. I swear to you these guys LOVE Putin compared to how they feel about Obama.

you know I am not Bulgarian right? From now on I want you to only report on US issues using a swahili paper as your source okay? Note that many of the sources quoted in that article are Bulgarian. Next objection?

Nice, so the only acceptable source to criticize Russia is a Russian source? Read the article and check the sources it used. Those will check out unlike the sources you find in russian news that usually turn out to be non existent or faked. They include Bulgarian govt statements including ones from those defending the pipeline. It might make you look more serious if you actually can challenge the content versus just not liking the author.

Oh the story of that pipeline is beautiful. We have Russian agents bribing Bulgarian officials and starting fake "green" movements while intervening in Bulgarian affairs. It finally fell apart when Russia's cronies got greedy and started attacking one another causing a run on a Bulgarian bank. I'll see if I can dig that one up, it is such a classic example for what kind of a friend Putin is. Yeah here we go, that wasn't hard. This is just such a perfect example of how the Kremlin treats it's "friends". No wonder so few people want anything to do with Putin's economic plans. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/31/world/europe/how-putin-forged-a-pipeline-deal-that-derailed-.html?_r=0

Not quite, the U.S. And other countries (particularly the UK) simply embarrassed them about how they could continue to do an arms deal with Russia as Russia is invading Ukraine, and over here in the west we mostly agree Russia is invading Ukraine. So France had a bit of a public relations disaster. Sending those ships would have hurt France's image badly in the west, not just to US, but also Poland, Germany, the UK etc. I won't even mention their neighbors in the Netherlands who know Russia had a hand in the fiasco that resulted in the downing of that aircraft. Putin's denials fall on deaf ears after all the lies about involvement in Crimea. When you act like a bully, you tend not to have many friends. We in the US have had our moments and we know how it works. As to the penalties, we will see. If Russia is not going to play by the same financial rules as others, they won't be protected by them either.

You used the word independent, so has Putin. This is referencing his position. Ask the U.S. congress how they feel about the French. Our idiots were so dumb they banned french fries. Hardly a sign that France caters to US policy. (Or that the U.S. congress knows where french fries come from). The U.S. does have a tremendous amount of influence. We carry a significant burden of the financial costs in most of our alliances which makes sense considering the size of our economy. That does not mean we always get our way. Regarding the comment about Russia, China and western relations, the thing the west is adamant on in economic relations is transparency and clear legal/financial rules. This is a point where Russia is clearly doing all the damage to itself. As long as Russia does not abide by the same financial behavior that everyone else does, there will be hesitancy from the international community to invest, the risks are too high for corporate standards. This predates the sanctions and drop in oil prices. The Yukos affair was really bad news in the western financial circles. Perhaps Russians do not see the shock waves it generated in the west, but it was a big deal here. That has been followed by other instances clearly indicating state involvement in rearranging businesses to suit it's purposes regardless of legal standing. This has included charges of theft where the supposed victim of the theft (a French company) denies any theft ever took place.

umm Russia's budget was based on oil at $100 a barrel. It is trading at far below that for the foreseeable future. It doesn't take an economist to know, if I just took a 60% pay cut, my finances are screwed. With so little transparency in the economy and so much corruption (Rosneft being just one example) how certain are you that any of the information you are getting is valid? Interesting article on the origins of that Rosneft deal just a little while ago. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/four-horsemen-russias-economic-apocalypse-104900173.html The central bank just stated the rate hike in December was a mistake, so essentially they are saying Russia has lost 6 weeks of time trying to deal with the economic situation pursuing a failed policy. Things like that do not inspire confidence and the only "policy" Putin has declared is to spend more of the reserves. Again if I took a 60% pay cut, I know I would have to spend any savings I have to pay my bills. That isn't a policy but rather a recognition of reality. A policy would be me trying to figure out how to reduce my expenses by 60% or generate new sources of income. Russia is now looking at being degraded to junk status. That doesn't really do anyone any good, but the lack of direction coming from leadership, the lack of transparency and the continued catering to an inner circle of corruption is pretty much all anyone else is seeing.

I think it has become the Stalingrad of this war. The symbolic victory to be gained is worth quite a deal from both sides. Winning it would bolster Ukrainian morale and convince folks that further sacrifice will win the war. For Russia, winning it may create a sense of futility bringing Ukraine to the table on terms more beneficial to Russian aims. In reality, I think no matter who wins, the war will just continue. Just like Stalingrad didn't actually make or break the war, it just reflected a shift in the overall balance of power. The Ukrainians will just get more pissed off and Russia will be no closer to finding a way out of this. Ha sniped by Sgt Joch

Well it is definitely a thread with passionate viewpoints on both sides. Despite that I think generally it hasn't been too bad. Some of the difficulty is, we are talking about conflict a couple years in the future. There is a lot that could happen between now and then to influence how events in that scenario will play out. Some of those potential events are honestly I think uncomfortable. For example my comments above are not meant to be Russia bashing. Personally I think Russia has an important place in the world community. What I find frustrating is Putin based on his very narrow minded view of the world is taking Russia in the opposite direction. He is mis managing Russia into a dangerous downward spiral. What does that mean from my perspective for the hypothetical scenario we are discussing? It suggests that Russian military capability would be diminshed, the financial and social resources necessary for modernization of the army will not be there in the quantities forecast. In addition the army is likely going to have other commitments as conditions deteriorate on the borders and potentially the interior of the country. This in itself limits the scope of the conflict as there will only be enough capability for a limited objective offensive and the disparity in high intensity 21st century warfare capabilities between Russia and the West will continue to diverge.

Unless it follows the Russia model in Ukraine. This whole deniability thing is gonna come back and bite Putin. An interesting 2008 study of Siberia and it's impact on the Russian economy, future forecasts and some predictions of what China might do. A bit long, but quite fascinating. There are a few predictions here that are coming true faster than the authors expected. http://www.dod.gov/pubs/foi/International_security_affairs/china/09-F-0759theGreatSiberianWarOf2030.pdf

I was not! I was looking for my contact lense, but thanks for the boot. Turns out my contact was a few feet further and I was able to find it with your, er, assistance.