sburke

Damn you are truly pathetic. Care to quote the full info instead of cherry picking something for your agenda so we can "show some independent critical thinking" as you expressed it. Cuomo suggested that an infection rate of 13.9 percent statewide indicates that the death rate could be much lower than what is currently indicated. The state is currently reporting 263,460 confirmed positive coronavirus tests and 15,740 coronavirus deaths statewide, which would indicate a death rate of approximately 6 percent. But if the sample in the antibody testing is indicative of the total percentage of New Yorkers who have antibodies, that means as many as 2.7 million New Yorkers may have had the virus. That would indicate a statewide death rate of about 0.5 percent. The governor did indicate two caveats with that theory. One is that the official state death count only indicates deaths that happened in a hospital or a nursing home, and does not include coronavirus-related deaths that occurred in a home, which means the official death count is likely higher than that official number. The other caveat is that the data from the antibody testing is only preliminary. The governor says the tests are crucial on multiple fronts, from identifying potential convalescent plasma donors to informing state officials on the reopening strategy. The antibody tests have not been immune to controversy, however. In the rush to get antibody tests on the market, their accuracy has been called into question, with fears of a high number of false positives. And the World Health Organization (WHO) said last week that there is no evidence that antibody testing indicates that a person is immune to the disease. Read that last line again. I'll spell it out. There is nothing to say that the 13.9% or 212% are folks who have developed immunity. We could all use some good news right now, but we all know you don't really care about that. You are looking for justification. What we don't need is to start harping on unconfirmed data as proof. Then you end up running down the rabbit hole with your fearless leader who just today showed his brilliant mind again. “Supposing we hit the body with a tremendous ultra violet or just very powerful light,” he said, looking toward Bryan and Dr. Deborah Birx, a member of the White House coronavirus task force. “And I think you said that hasn’t been checked but you are going to test it.” He added, “And then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you could do either through the skin or in some other way. I think you said that you are going to test that, too. And then I saw the disinfectant, where knocks it out in one minute, and is there a way we could do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning. As you see it gets in the lungs, it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it would be interesting to check that.”

Wait a minute, are you saying folks who feel strongly about the 2nd amendment or abortion or immigration aren't regular folks? I may have my disagreements with them, but I certainly don't feel that their feeling strongly on those issues is inherently screwed up. That they are supporting a guy who constantly dog whistles the far right though is for them to look at. Maybe someone who is feels that strongly about abortion is willing to accept that. It doesn't put them into the KKK orbit, but they are still backing a guy who retweets all that nonsense.

Many of those labels are denigrating (at least in my view), not all. And they aren't inaccurate. Anti abortion folks will most likely vote for Trump and that is their own label which they are proud of. Anti immigration, same deal. 2nd amendment types - again it is a label they wear proudly and represents what they consider to be a strong voting litmus test. Granted they may not like being lumped in with KKK and Neo Nazis (who also proudly wear their labels) but that is factually correct and is something to consider when you are trying to understand what the person you are voting for represents. qanon conspiracy types? - Trump retweets their stuff all the time. This is the coalition of groups that support Trump. If you don't like being lumped in with all those groups I'd suggest reconsidering your vote. I am sure there are plenty of labels for folks who support Biden, but I doubt I'll be totally freaked out about being lumped in with them.

when dumbasses lead the charge https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/dr-oz-now-says-covid-154850565.html We waste a lot of time and end up back where we should have started - with the guy who actually knows something. On Wednesday’s Fox & Friends, Oz said, “I think there is so much data coming from so many places, we are better off waiting for the randomized trials Dr. Fauci has been asking for. Otherwise, we keep reacting back and forth for studies that show an opposite result.”

Think what you want, there have been no strikes yet. Just cover from a GOP that has sold it's soul. However this isn't about how much of a corrupt pathetic idiot the man you support as Potus is. He himself apparently thinks it is too early to reopen as well. Seems my "Marxist media driven narrative" is more in line with Trump right now than yours. (Granted the idiot can't stick with any plan more than 5 minutes, maybe less if he's about to watch Fox - what a great leader). But hey he's getting great ratings during the briefings right? https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-he-disagrees-strongly-with-georgia-governors-decision-to-reopen-state-000105433.html And to suggest I want tens of thousands to die just for the doofus to leave office? That is truly pathetic and beneath you. How do you go from wanting a discussion and critical thinking to a statement like that? All that does is confirm I was correct in not expecting any real discussion from you. Go tune in to Alex jones or Limbaugh or whoever it is that you get your oddly colored view of reality from.

Thank you but no. What would be the point? While I have lots of experience as a VoIP engineer/architect, I have absolutely none as an epidemiologist. This guy on the other hand is our national expert. Anthony Stephen Fauci is an American physician and immunologist who has served as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) since 1984. Since January 2020, he has been one of the lead members of the Trump Administration's White House Coronavirus Task Force addressing the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic in the United States. Fauci is widely seen to be one of the most trusted medical figures in the country. If you don't believe him, why the hell would you believe me? He says you are wrong and that your suggested path is absolutely the wrong way to deal with this. He speaks for the White House- most of the time when Trump isn't flip flopping for some adulation points. If you think you know better than him, well hats off to you. You can hang out with this lady.

Not really. His position is not supported by the medical community. They aren't even sure we will develop immunity. It is not a given. What we do know is the cost of not doing a lockdown is high. You can either work with real data and take action recommended by the experts in the field or you can decide based on what someone with unknown credentials posts on the internet (that isn't directed at Kevin but rather the sources posting about this "we need to go with herd immunity" stuff) https://www.yahoo.com/news/sweden-nearly-10-times-number-210442597.html Just like you can listen to the overwhelming scientific community about climate change or you can listen to the handful of conspiracy people filling the airwaves. My hometown as a historical lesson on what NOT to do https://news.yahoo.com/parade-killed-thousands-103001530.html

That is only a theory and there are other suggestions circulating. There isn’t a solid medical opinion yet. However there are lots of lessons to be learned about what the potential is for not locking down. https://news.yahoo.com/parade-killed-thousands-103001530.html

I still vote for science over hyperbole.

let's get back to pandemic and off politics if we can. Frankly concerned about the push to re open now. The original number circulated about 100-250k deaths was premised on most Americans not practicing social distancing. The drop in estimate to 60k was based on social distancing becoming a lot more prevalent not that the virus was any less virulent. That is now going to be tossed upside down as we start reopening while the virus is still spreading. There are now 3 suspected strains - A, B and C. A is the original. B is it's mutation that spread in China. C is what is now spreading in/from Europe. C appears to be more deadly. For those still talking about this being no worse then the flu. March 20th the US had 225 deaths. April 20th 40,000. In a month it has killed more than typically die from the flu in a year and we have not peaked. That is against a flu that hit more of the population AND has a vaccine. In fact as these states open up we are guaranteeing that we head back towards the original targets we were warned about. One of the things that was a concern early on is the very success of social distancing may undermine it. The chorus of see how few are affected doesn't take into account that is based on social distancing being more prevalent than expected. What things will look like without it is exactly what we are trying to avoid. For those still talking about "herd immunity" this is worth a read. https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/fact-check-herd-immunity-would-not-fully-stop-the-spread-of-coronavirus/ar-BB12QmUE?ocid=spartanntp Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of the population becomes immune to a disease or virus, stopping its spread because there are so few people who can contract it. It is typically attained through vaccination, not widespread infection. For example, herd immunity for the measles is achieved when 19 out of 20 people receive the vaccination. Wittkowski supported herd immunity through infection. Although it is possible to achieve herd immunity through infection, “you don’t rely on the very deadly infectious agent to create an immune population,” Akiko Iwasaki, a virologist at the Yale School of Medicine, told The Atlantic. “With most viral infections, when someone gets infected and then recovers, they develop immunity at least for a period of time and cannot be reinfected. That’s true for most viruses. It’s not true for all viruses,” Barouch said. “For COVID-19, we don’t know yet. We don’t yet have definitive proof whether there’s natural protective immunity.”

Not really different than the climate change debate. We have known for decades it is a reality. TheN big oil started flooding lobbyist and politician pockets with cash and the denial movement kicked off. Denial was never about science but rather corporate interest. the current problem is based in the whole “fake news” phenomena which again is nothing more than propaganda to be able to deflect. It has inevitably taken on a life of its own in that folks now live in their own bubble where “belief” trumps research. While it is mostly something that many view as a Trump/conservative supporter issue (in large part based on climate debate) I personally think you can’t paint it quite that way. I think we all tend to bias these days. as to the snowflake expression. I really detest it. Part of what defines us as human is empathy and the use of that expression by any side seems to be the very denial of the best part of our human selves.

Ha which one, Orlando bloom or Tom hanks?

Ha yeah that was some tv series. I saw an article about the film then decided to see what it was about. Googled it and thought, wtf is this? LOL Finally found on youtube. This is a regular cinema release I think...you know, those places you can't go right now. https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/rod-lurie-afghanistan-war-film-165923660.html Tom Hanks apparently has a film with him as captain of a destroyer in the N Atlantic in 1942. Based on The Good Shepherd https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6048922/

Yikes and here comes the guy with a bucket of gasoline. bad Wicky! bad! go sit down! but now that you bring it up I have to say it is kind of sick but the hashtag boomer remover had me cracking up for days. And I am a boomer Freakin smart ass young people.

Not sure if this has come up here previously or not.

Regardless of where anyone sits in this discussion, we are all under stress. No worries. I am not going to pretend I have any answers. The only thing I do know is I am profoundly ignorant about how to fight a pandemic and the potential cost if you do it wrong. I have to accept that the leading people in the field know what they are talking about and the briefings from the White House by the leading US scientist on it are better info than me guessing. Yes the toll on the economy is enormous. Is the human cost of that something that needs to be considered? Absolutely. Is it better or worse with us under lockdown, I don’t know and I don’t think we will be able to answer that question for quite some time. Do I even remotely believe the numbers China has given? Absolutely not. Does that affect my trust in what the US and world medical community are telling me? No.

So you starting by calling us all pussies and fools was okay? That was not inappropriate or poor form? The cure has been far worse than the illness? How do you calculate that and what will the cost be without social distancing? That is a great media quote line, but is it actually true? What data supports that view? Yes the economy is getting hit hard. I was hoping to retire next year and now I have no idea. However if the infection and hospitalization rate is not managed correctly, then what happens? The economy tanks anyway, but now the death rate climbs as healthcare workers and their resources are completely overwhelmed. That doesn’t sound like a plan to me. I am neither an economist nor an expert on the health care community. I just have to trust the leaders of our health care community and the Presidents head of infectious diseases and his primary spokesperson is saying social distancing is critical.

Cool, I need to catch that, thanks!

Punk? Really? What's with the schoolyard name calling in every post? What's next, you gonna threaten to come beat me up after class? You were the one who said no one you know is affected I assume that includes your family. So which is it? Leave family in or out? Or are you gonna insist on having it both ways? I included my mom to relate a specific story of the experience her friends are having. It was anecdotal and part of suggesting you talk to some of the health care workers near you. Which I guess you ignored. Yes she is a source, discount her if you like, not important. But at least have the balls to ask an actual health worker near you for an informed opinion about what is going on in your community. And yes it is a public forum and this is the general discussion portion of it with a non wargaming topic that concerns us all. If my mother, or my uncle, or my wife has experience relevant to the topic I'll include it. You don't like it, don't read it.

What has her being my mom got to do with it? She is a source. WTF is wrong with you dude? If it had been my brother, my next door neighbor, my third cousin twice removed that would have been okay? WTF?! You are seriously unhinged. Come to grips with that. And for someone with chemistry patents, it is fascinating you gave a percentage when pretty much everyone admits our testing has been woefully inadequate. In reality the testing so far is no where near as complacent as your picture. Science. Freakin amazing. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/us-coronavirus-outbreak-out-control-test-positivity-rate/610132/ The test-positivity rate, then, is a decent (if unusual) proxy for the severity of an outbreak in an area. And it shows clearly that the U.S. still lags far behind other countries in the course of fighting its outbreak. South Korea—which discovered its first coronavirus case on the same day as the U.S.—has tested more than half a million people, or about 1 percent of its population, and discovered about 10,500 cases. The U.S. has now tested 3.2 million people, which is also about 1 percent of its population, but it has found more than 630,000 cases. So while the U.S. has a 20 percent positivity rate, South Korea’s is only about 2 percent—a full order of magnitude smaller.

Nah sorry not wasting anymore of my time on this. I believe what the scientific community overwhelmingly tells me. You believe what you want. And that is Sir Alfred to you. Okay so he isn't knighted, but he should be.

I brought up my mother as she has nursing friends in actual hospitals with actual experience. Good on you with your patents but I don't give a sh*t. When did you become the forum tantrum child?

That may be the most moronic post I have ever seen on this forum. Congratulations Failed at science?

Nice to know your well founded scientific opinion is so clear. Just in case you hadn't noticed though the numbers of infected and dead are still rising. Sure go ahead back to work tomorrow and ignore all the freakin science people who actually KNOW something. As you go on about politics remember the virus doesn't give a sh*t who you voted for, just whether you are stupid enough to be irrational. We just passed 40,000 dead and we aren't' anywhere near peak. US numbers first death Feb 29th April 6th 10,000 April 11th 20,000 April 16th 30,000 April 19th 40,000 My state has done a great job of acting early and keeping our health care system sound, but it comes at a cost and sooner or later we need to have a better long term strategy as a vaccine is likely a year away. I don't know the answer to that. Financially I think the US should consider doing something like WW2 - sell war bonds to fight the virus. The cost of this is going to be huge and Americans are gonna need help to dig out. That is great no one you know is infected. Now don't be so ignorant to assume just because you don't personally know anyone that it is no big deal. Talk to someone at your local hospital and ask them about it. My mother is an ex ER nurse and has friends who have come out of retirement to volunteer and their stories are harsh. I sincerely hope no one you know is ever affected, but I'll be curious when it does if you'll come back here and say "sorry folks if I came off as an ignorant fool, a pandemic is something you can't just brush off until you are personally affected". @Erwin Money heist is great, watching that now. Thinking to go back and watch Homeland all the way through. I only saw the first 3 seasons.

err season or two more of this? Yikes man. I don't watch those briefings. Like nails on a chalkboard. Have to admit to watching as little news as possible. I generally prefer to read stuff than be recited to regardless of topic so I have my sub to the NY Times. Some interesting articles I have seen on the banking system in India for example and how this lockdown may push them over the edge. The knock on effects of the global lockdown are pretty scary as so many pieces of the supply chains and consumer purchasing pipelines are just completely broken right now that how we come out of this is really anyone's guess. China's industry may be coming out of lockdown, but US consumers are likely to be holding their wallets closed with so many out of work and at risk. Without a vaccine the likelihood that a second cycle of infections will start is almost guaranteed. Somehow we need to find a set of behaviors that limits transmission while still allowing people to go back to work. How we do that though is hard to figure. Florida beaches aren't exactly a good example. Oh and regarding UAE states and lounges, keep in mind they still have virtual slave labor where they hold immigrant folks passports and segregate them. I was in Dubai and got to see a little of that. Pretty f'd up.