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rocketman

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Posts posted by rocketman

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    My leading theory... a single Hrim-2 strike.  Here are my reasons:

    1. Of all the possibilities a missile strike is the one that best fits Occam's Razor test.  A single missile strike is the simplest explanation, therefore the most likely.
    2. It is the most assured of success, least likely to have failed.  Not just in having a good effect but having ANY effect at all. 
    3. Russia wasn't able to do anything against the 4 missiles that struck Saki, including attempted interception.  Therefore, the lack of response ahead of the strike is consistent with the previous known strikes.  None of Russia's other precautions, such as bomb detection and water patrols, are relevant.
    4. The amount of explosive power of a Hrim-2 is sufficient to explain all damage.  Not only does it have enough force to cause a catastrophic effect on the bridge itself, it has fragmentation effects built into it.  This is the easiest way to explain the fact that the explosion is below the train by quite a bit and yet it hit the train in several places.  We've seen collateral damage like that in Saki.
    5. The CEP of the Hrim-2 is not sufficient to be assured of hitting a specific span of bridge, either rail or road.  However, if aimed at the center point of the bridge width, they would be nearly assured of hitting something.  Any significant damage to any part of the bridge would be a success, so this is consistent with Ukraine wanting a sure bet.  It also explains why the road bridge was hit instead of the rail portion, which is what one would think they'd prefer to destroy.
    6. Coordinating the strike with the fuel train would be fairly straight forward and well within Ukraine's known ISR capabilities.
    7. There are plenty of trucks going across the bridge and so the chances of one kinda being close enough to the impact is fairly high.  Ukraine, of course, wouldn't have cared about there being some apparent cause and effect with a truck.
    8. It is probable that Ukraine could have built a single Hrim-2, but maybe not more.  Using one would likely be enough to cause damage, so timing it with Putin's birthday and what's going on at the front is pretty straight forward.
    9. This is the sort of target that Ukraine would expend a Hrim-2 on.  In fact, Ukraine hinted at this exact thing after they struck Saki with Hrim-2.
    10. Ukraine is taking responsibility for it but, like Saki, is hinting that it was something other than a Hrim-2 attack.  In this case SBU operation.

    There you go.  My case for this being a Hrim-2 attack.

    As far as I can see my theory fits all known information.  So far I don't see anything that contradicts it.  Occam's Razor is favoring my theory far more than any of the others.

    Steve

    Re #6: wouldn’t it be hard to exactly time the flight of the missile to hit right next to a moving train?

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    7 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

    European countries could create a "pool" so that everyone chips in with 10-30% of they tanks that would be replaced sometime after Ukraine situation cools down then. Some of this pool would be internally swapped and some send to Ukraine, making sure Ukraine gets the up to date modes and similar versions.

    From here you can find the operators: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_2

    image.png.8b755f92ae85ae12dbc7f123fe7f311b.png

    around half are 2A5-A7 and half 2A4.

    This means Ukraine could easily get around 200. That would be a "worth it" amount.

    and again to remind everyone most of these tanks exist only to counter Russian threat. In Ukraine they will be decreasing that threat even further. Russian threat has now decreased significantly(for the next decade or so) and Europe will be able to rearms faster than Russia after the war cools down.

    Sweden should be on that list and send more than a handful. And while at it send some Archer systems as well.

    0

    2022 Mid Year Update

    in Combat Mission - General Discussion

    Posted

    9 hours ago, Codreanu said:

    I notice the biggest performance drop when looking at the deployment zone itself, on some of the big CMCW scenarios I will get single digit FPS when I look at the deployment zone but if I turn the camera away it gets somewhat better. Quite strange. Does go back to normal after I hit play though.

    For some reason I always get a big FPS hit and slow camera movement in scenarios with a lot of locations (red text). Turning those off can be a good start. Also turning off shadows in scenarios when the weather is bad and shadows don't show anyway.

    1

    2022 Mid Year Update

    in Combat Mission - General Discussion

    Posted

    On 9/13/2022 at 1:41 PM, Buzz said:

    No performance issues here with any Combat Mission games using an i5 9600k (no overclock) and my recently purchased RTX 3060 ti. Using Nvidia image scaling at 2560x1440 with all settings at best ColdWar looks fantastic.

    Buzz

    @Buzz

    Sorry for a bit of off topic, but:

    I'm curious about what you think about using the image scaling feature. I also have a 1440p monitor and wonder which setting you use and what the main difference is than without it? Is it a global setting or can it be used with selected games?

    0

    2022 Mid Year Update

    in Combat Mission - General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by rocketman

    Great news this morning with the soon to be released Battle Pack. Even better news that @George MC is behind it. Top class design is to be expected. Stating that it has been "a labor of love" sure points to something of great value for us players.  I have been away from CM for a while for various reasons but this will pull me back in again for sure.

    But seriously Battlefront, know your value - 10 USD to too low of a price. 

    3

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by rocketman

    29 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

    Heh, that is probably the hardest thing for any military person top learn once they hit the strategic/political level - doing nothing.  It grates against the grain but sometime you just have to wait for Y and Z to emerge, no forcing it.

    Of course ending this war quickly is the plan - weapons planning and all that, we are seeing brilliant demonstration from Ukraine right now.  I was speaking about "what to do about that rascal Russia" once this war is over.  This war:

    - Needs to end with a hard unambiguous Ukrainian win, which by extension the West will also win.

    - Be followed up by a Marshal Plan level of reconstruction in Ukraine.

    - Result in a functional Russian state that 1) we can deal with like a sane-ish person (we have managed crazy), and 2) Gets back in line.  Obviously neither of those two include poor old Vlad but he bought the ticket, he and his cronies take the ride.

    And our God Money will save us!  Here is the problem with that particular spin - there are people out there that hate us more than they love money.  Trust me, I have met them.  And 6000 loose nukes is very bad...as in very very bad.  Because even if only a few squeak out of our "nuke for bucks" plan the entire game changes.  Best case is that people of the former Russia use them on each other, then we only have to deal with the fallout.  Worst case, someone uses them to trigger an article 5 against another nuclear power and then we can all save our mighty dollars for toilet paper.  In the middle are a whole bunch of revenge scenarios against places like Kyviv, Western Europe and North America if whoever gets them has legs.

    Nope. nope. nope. If it does start to happen we might actually see western intervention into Russia to try and grab them.  

    Putting on my rosy tinted glasses here; if the Russian Federation shows signs of crumbling, could we make lifting of sanctions contingent on mutual control over the nukes and start a new round of deescalation? The Russian nukes are controlled and successively decomissioned (maybe not fully to be realistic) and the West follows suit to some extent.

    3

    Anyone playing WITW or WITE-2?

    in General Discussion Forum

    Posted

    I now have about 150h of WITE2 having previously played some WITE and WITW - and I must say it is a fantastic game. It now sits comfortably next to CM-games as a "game for life". The jump from WITE to WITE2 is bigger than one might first expect, especially from just looking at screenshots. Many of the new systems (like logistics) and the new GUI adds a lot. It is a time sink though, but I like the idea of living with a long time campaign and am in no hurry to complete it. If you like micromangement it is a dream. And it is the best looking hex and counter game out there IMHO.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    57 minutes ago, Grigb said:

    I am putting here preliminary notes about RU Nats response because it looks like they are writing like mad. I am reading from morning and it is already 193 unread posts while usually it is about 60-80. However so far they are writing about anything else. Preliminary Summary:

    • They are active but eerily quiet about strike. They did saw maps and analysis but so far give minimal comments.
    • They do not comprehend military implications. Their response is we can handle it.
    • However subjectively I feel a fracture in RU Nats morale.  While they do not fear military ramifications it looks like they are extremely nervous at other consequences. They are RU Nats. Missile Terror strikes for them is a norm but only when they do it. UKR demonstrated they can do it as well. Imagine these missiles hitting RU cities. You need also understand that RU love terror strikes because they project their own public vulnerability to others. It is RU people that are weak to terror strikes. RU Nats are facing the real possibility of explaining to RU people why they have to suffer from terror just to fulfill RU Nats fantasies. Thats extremely difficult to do.

    Please keep in mind that this is a preliminary report. Will confirm when I am out of sewers.

    Thank you for willingly spending so much time ”in the sewers” as you put it, so we can take part of your excellent reporting. Valuable insights into the behind the curtains machinations for sure.

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Yeah, the left is more about being anti-war than isolationist, the right is more isolationist than anti-war.  Both sides want to stay out of conflicts with nations that they feel some sort of ideological kinship with.  The list of Republicans who voted against that measure are on the record as being sympathetic towards (if not outright supportive of) Russia generally and Putin specifically.  Their vote on this particular bill is largely consistent with votes on other bills to hold Putin accountable.  The Hill article cited above touches on some of them.

    This is not an attempt to bash the Republican Party but to explain to non-US political watchers what is going on.  These individuals are not influential when it comes to US national security matters.  Their votes should not be seen as relevant to gauging the US' support of Ukraine.

    Steve

    I will have a look at the Hill article. I worry that Erdogan will use any dissent among members as fodder for his own agenda of obstructing Sweden’s bid.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, Probus said:

    Since we are almost 1000 pages in, I was wondering if a few guys could post some links to previous posts in this thread that are:

    • The most important/informative
    • The most predictive of what would or did happen
    • Those of strategic importance 

    I ask because some folks have recently joined us here and may need to do some catching up. 1000 pages is A LOT of catching up to do. Please upvote if this would be useful to you. 

    Thanks a bunch!

    Probus

    Another thing about this, Steve check the forum software so that the page counter can handle three four digit numbers. Would be a shame if the thread crashed due to a Y2K-like bug.

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