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Baneman

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Posts posted by Baneman

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

    Yep. I guess some Reaper or Predator Squadrons operated by volunteers and fitted with Hellfires would also help to deal with that 40km convoy.

    Methinks the Ukrainians are leaving the convoy alone now that they have ( reportedly) stopped it moving forward.

    Stationary it's just a fantastic drain on resources without making use of any of those resources in a militarily meaningful way.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Baneman

    2 hours ago, Taranis said:

    ...
    The French head of state thinks "the worst is in" Ukraine after his exchange with Vladimir Putin, who expressed "his very great determination" to continue his offensive, whose goal is "to take control" from all over the country, according to the Elysée.

    During an hour and a half telephone discussion at his request, the Russian president assured his French counterpart that the Russian army operation was developing "according to the plan" planned by Moscow and that it would " get worse" if the Ukrainians did not accept its terms, ...

    I wonder how much of that determination is based on being told what he wants to hear vs reality ?
    I guess you'd ensure you're properly up to date, but given how it seems that the initial premises for kicking this off were wildly unrealistic ... you have to wonder.

    To be honest, the vibe/feel I get for all the Russian actions is the Japanese High Command in WWII who ended up believing their own propaganda. They were ok putting out wildly optimistic reports, but somehow failed to realise that every level below them was doing it too.

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Commanderski said:

    In regards to some of the talk about the Russians using a tactical nuke...based on the quality or lack of on the conventional forces their nuke personnel may not be much better. If an order was given to launch at a city just to give the Ukrainians an example of what's to come it's a good possibility that the order wouldn't be carried out. That's something we would never know about as it would take place far beyond the borders.

    Not only that - how sure are they that the thing won't malfunction ? A lot of their other army equipment looks poorly maintained.

    Obviously not very likely given the sensitivity of that sort of kit, but still a risk.
    Worst case : a nuclear catastrophe in your own country AND the world now knows your nuclear arsenal is rubbish...

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Baneman

    7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

    Oh dear, is Baneman ok?🤣

    Head exploded in a good way ! 😆

    7 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

    Hopefully. But he's already bombing Ukrainian cities indiscriminately with every weapon he has - explosives, thermobaric, cluster bombs..

    True, but his circle/top brass are used to that. That's normal for them. 
    Bringing in nukes is a whole different level - especially when there is clearly no actual threat of Ukrainian or any other forces invading Russia.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

    How would NATO realistically respond if Putin made a direct threat to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine?

    You'd have to wonder how Russians ( in the army and in the political circle ) would respond if Putin threatens to nuke their "brothers" because they just. wont. listen.

    There's got to be more than a few that would realise that isn't any kind of rational act - even if Putin's cracked up a bit, they can't all go mad at the same time. 

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    I cannot get my head around the value of the equipment the Russian Army is just throwing away !

    Just that Tunguska and Tor-M2 together have to be $30 million plus 🤔 
    ( I assume the Tor-M2 DesertFox showed being towed is the one we saw a still of earlier ... because if they've captured 2 my head will explode ).

    1

    Does Russia have any counters against the Javelin?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    On 3/1/2022 at 12:56 AM, pintere said:

    ... For instance, can the Afghanit APS on the new Armata tanks defeat it? If so then the Ukrainians may have no way to stop those tanks if they do make an appearance.

    Doubtful there's more than a few Armata in anything like war-readiness ( I'd say any, but that's just because I've heard nothing about them since they were first announced ).

    Besides, it seems like they would be risking just giving an Armata to the Ukrainians. 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

    The latest I read (BBC) was that the column is mostly composed of logistics trucks with a few armoured vehicles, so it's not the massive armoured force that was feared initially. But as always, it's difficult to know what's true and not.

    This.
    For a couple of days now the news headlines have been screaming fear about a "40km tank column" when the reality was always that it was a 40km column with some tanks. You'd think journalists would make at least some effort to grasp what they're talking about.

    And the speed of their progress either says they're hyper cautious now ( and that won't help when they have to push against a defence ) or they still have massive logistical issues.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, keas66 said:

    Considering the performance so far  I am wondering if the Russians are not opening themselves  up for a ton of trouble with these long extended lines  .

    Agree - if I was a Russian commander, i would not be too sanguine about that thin eastward thrust towards Mariupol.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

    ...
    Also I just read that thread about the civilian radios. Does anyone know what kind of EW assets Ukraine may have had before the conflict? Are these Ukrainian jammers or do people think this might be a bit of sly NATO assistance? How much specialized gear do you need to white out a radio signal like that? To be honest I understand the use of EW, but the specifics and the technology are a mystery to me. 

    Jamming and/or bad radios might explain some of the more bizarre "abandonments" we've seen - You've been ambushed, you've lost a few vehicles, not sure where the enemy is and even if you did, you're not sure where you are, taking more fire and the comms hookup you cobbled together stops working so you have no contact higher up... - low motivation troops might well just leg it and leave everything behind.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, Mft004 said:

    ... the Ukraine is Russia's backyard and within the past year NATO inclusion has been Ok'd by the US administration. Now if, after Ukraine's been split in two, Putin moves on the Western portion, that's no longer a backyard issue and then you might see more people being willing to vote for a foreign war....

    I don't get this - it's ok for Russia to mess with Ukraine ( occupy, dismember, whatever ) because "it's their backyard" ?
    By that logic, Canada should just take Alaska - it's much more their backyard than the USA's...

    Plus any NATO missiles in Latvia/Estonia are practically the same distance from Moscow as a missile in Ukraine, so why isn't that a problem ?
    It couldn't possibly be because Putin can't attack them owing to the defensive nature of NATO ? 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

    About the GPS issues and units getting lost, is the West capable of disrupting  Russian Glonass in Ukraine? 

    Surely the point of Glonass was that it would be outside possible Western interference ?
    But I guess if we've learned anything in the last 5 years or so, it's that anything can be hacked.

    Still, it is surprising that the Russians didn't have backup maps if so. Don't you plan for everything to fail and plan accordingly ?

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