Eddy

Guys I am off for 10-15 minutes to get my cup of coffee. But it might take more time as my laptop is trying to die on me.

Oblast though, not city, right?
Bomb, please return to your bay....
 

Dmitiry already translated Prig comments about real situation. Here is confirmation that situation for RU is very difficult - from "agent" Thirteen (infamous RU soldier in Kherson-Zaporozhye area)
[EDIT] For those who do not want to spend time listening to Prig here are main points:
Pyatikhatka is under AFU control [is not new for us] The northern section of Robotne is under AFU control [is new for us] Urozhaine is under AFU control [is not new for us] Prig concludes that the UKR controls huge areas of land AFU unit (50-10) is located near Tormak in the Sadove village [is new for us] RU MOD has no control over anything [is not new for us] Total shortage of weaponry and ammunition (including anti-tank weapons) [is not new for us] AFU advances [implying successfully] toward Molochny Lyman [village on the Azov seashore south of Melitopol - if AFU reaches it, the RU grouping will be split in half]. [is new for us] AFU begins crossing the Dniepr - there were recon parties at Hola Prystan [a town south-west of Kherson] and now the main troops begin to arrive [is new for us] RU suffers casualties but no reinforcement [is not new for us] RU units are understaffed by 50-60% [is not new for us] Everything up there has been hidden from everybody. The Russian military command is fooling Putin and the Russian people [is not new for us] Disparaging Shoigy and the RU MOD,  concludes the Russian army is being destroyed [is not new for us] The UKR counter-offensive causes significant losses for RU, which is not being acknowledged [is not new for us] Bla-Bla-Bla [is not new for us]

Just now Wargonzo - RU retreated from Pytikhatka

You have a message from Hogwarts

Working on UKR Mashovet's today's post, however in order to avoid gaps in coverage, I am including his past postings discussing Tokmak direction that I did not have time to translate before.
Please keep in mind this is for 15-Jun

 

Gonna have to put on my historical nitpicker hat here. The European powers closely examined the US Civil War (I have a whole book somewhere on tactical development in the British army as a result of the US Civil War (there certainly was a lot of "America Sux" at the beginning of the war, which petered out as the war progressed)). They also had multiple, far more relevant, conflicts to examine between the US Civil War and WW1. There was the Austro-Prussian War, the Franco-Prussian war, the two Boar wars, the Russo-Japanese war, and many others that I skipped for brevity. The devastation of WW1 had nothing to do with failing to pay attention to recent wars.
In fact much of the devastation can be chalked up to overlearning the wrong lessons from some of those wars, rather than failing to learn any lessons. One of the French lessons from the Franco-Prussian war was to re-emphasize shock, as opposed to firepower (there was a feeling that the previous emphasis on firepower and entrenchment made units hesitant to attack), leading to masses of French infantry being cut down in 1914. Among the lessons that many armies took from the Russo-Japanese war was that a high degree of tenacity and casualty tolerance was necessary to overcome modern firepower. Which resulted in masses of unnecessary casualties in battles that were pressed long after they should have been abandoned in 1915 and 1916.
And often the correct lessons were learned, but with spotty implementation. Most people had figured out that it was better to abandon the old close order formations in favor of fighting in a single rank in extended order (basically, make the skirmish line the default battle formation), although there were ongoing arguments about that right up until the early battles of 1914, with some units being brutally punished for going into battle in close order formations (I believe the French in particular had a fondness for close order formations, which they quickly abandoned after a few battles). The British had figured out that cavalry would mostly be acting as mounted infantry from here on out, and there were fierce debates about whether the cavalry should even retain their sabers at all (the Russians apparently had the opposite viewpoint, and tried to use their cavalry primarily for traditional charges, while most armies fell somewhere in between the British and the Russian viewpoint on cavalry (as it turned out, British cavalry were probably the most effective cavalry of any army in 1914)).
I'd say that most of the obvious lessons had been learned reasonably well by 1914. What remained to be learned from 1914-1918 were the smaller and far less obvious details. Things such as how much artillery ammunition is needed in modern war, how to maintain command and control on a highly dispersed battlefield before the invention of man-portable radios, how to improve coordination between the infantry and the artillery, how best to employ artillery against dug in positions, etc...
My takeaway from studying tactical development in the late 19th century and early 20th century was not that officers of the time weren't paying attention. It was that deriving correct lessons from ongoing developments, and then applying those lessons to sound changes in doctrine and force structure, is exceptionally difficult.

Let's talk about Maryinka and that video from 79th Brigade
I prepared a draft transcript of the first ten minutes, which covered one battle. But, in order for you to understand what is going on, I created a map and a brief summary. Obviously, despite my best efforts, I could easily misunderstand something.

UKR appears to have discovered an enemy force moving from Donetsk via road using a drone equipped with infrared imaging. There were four vehicles: one or two tanks and two or three BMPs. It's unknown where the infantry force came from; they might have dismounted from the BMPs. It appears to be an Assault group, which is usually approximately squad size, but this varies. It may begin with a strengthened squad of up to 15 soldiers, but by the time it reaches the target, there may only be 5-6 men left.
The defending UKR troops waited among the ruins. According to radio traffic, there were two to three fire teams stretched out in front. The UKR HQ directed fire teams at RU AFVs. The fire teams used RPGs to disable at least two AFVs; the remainder fled; however one fire team was hit (at least one killed, one injured). Meanwhile, an RU assault group assaulted the corner. One fire team used small arms in an attempt to pin them down, while a second fire team guided by HQ moved to assist the first and showered RU soldiers with GP-25s. After that, the UKR arty finished the job, and the lone RU survivor fled.
There are mostly three guys at HQ -  skinny bearded guy [at 00:57]. I suspect he is CO. Bulkier bearded guy [at 02:11] I suspect he is XO. He is guiding fire teams. And cleanly shaved guy [06:42] I suspect he is FIST guy.
Some observations:
Unlike the RU army, the UKR HQ does not appear to command and control fire squads. It's more like they guide and advise fire teams, although there is some degree of micromanagement - at one point, XO explicitly tells one fire team to grab AK and made aim shots like we do in CM with target order at something a unit hasn't seen yet. Both sides do not function in the traditional military configuration of platoon-company (I believe this is company headquarters). There are distributed attack teams/groups with radio links to HQ, and that's all there is to it. There is no reserve or another echelon nearby to continue the fight. This, I suppose, is due to the enormous threat of drone-adjusted arty. So, all help is a few kilometers away, and no one can come fast to help except a nearby team. Now the transcript. Please keep in mind the footage is not strictly chronological:
 

Sorry but I don't think that's up to you to allow ignorant people to spread blatant disinformation. Please don't be so supportive of other people attempts to spread it.
The RU artillery inferiority was proven and confirmed by RU months ago. Nothing to discuss here.
Tank and ATGMs were deployed to compensate for artillery weaknesses. As a result, RU is now having problems with them as well, as agent Murz noted again a few days ago:
RU arty is weak, Capt is right. Your friend is wrong. You support his lie. I will not allow this lie to spread. End of story.

That's this telegram post:
https://t.me/rybar/48365
 
 

Worth a read I think. Seems to be a fair and balanced report.

Worth a read I think. Seems to be a fair and balanced report.

Haha I thought some of it was familiar. I watch that YT channel every morning. Guess I need more coffee first thing  

This is just a transcript from a video from the Reporting From Ukraine YouTube channel.
I like watching his daily videos, but they definitely have a Ukraine is "doing everything smartly" bias, as opposed to the War in Ukraine YouTube channel which has a "unfortunately, the Ukraine military leadership is brain-dead" bias.

Another War Gonzo update, for those that care:
https://t.me/wargonzo/13118
 

203mm ? Did they find a cache of old 8inch M110 ammunition? Perhaps it could work with 2S7 somehow, given a proper charge. At one point there were even rumors about Krab crew managing to fire 152mm ammunition from it, so...
 

Hopefully it was still being used as a HQ. It's absolutely miles from the frontline.

Yup, but timing itself + malfunctions may theoretically pose some constrains in dynamic attack. Were they ever used during broad, combined arms offensive of this scale?
 
Some note from M. Lachowski. Nothing new, but guy has good sources in Bakhmut so understand situation there better than South:
It Started. I am writing this with the usual slight delay in such situations. So as not to facilitate the work of those who should not be facilitated. Over the past two days, the Ukrainians have been attacking in many places across the front. Offensive operations were carried out from the area of Bakhmut to Zaporozhye. Many brigades are involved in the operation, and thus at least tens of thousands of soldiers. Mechanized battalions were used for the attacks - a lot of equipment, including tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.
In the area of Bachmut, near Kliszczeivka, they managed to take over practically all the hills above this town. The Ukrainians also moved to Berechivka. This is a direction we know a lot about. We know very little about the rest. There were strikes in the vicinity of Wołnovakha, Wuhledar, Wielka Nowosilki and Orichów. Especially the last attack towards Tokmak seems very intense. Tokmak is crucial in this area, but also heavily fortified, as is the entire Zaporozhye front. All attacks were preceded by a powerful artillery preparation. Information about the most intense Ukrainian artillery fire since the beginning of the war was coming from the occupied areas of the Zaporizhia Oblast. Western equipment was used for the attack, including Leopard tanks. One of them was definitely destroyed. We know that the Russians used air force massively in response. Both Russian planes, helicopters and artillery will inflict heavy losses on the Ukrainians. The latter, however, have modern anti-aircraft systems in the vicinity of the front, which in turn will cause losses in the aviation of the Russians. In the period preceding the operation, the Ukrainians also managed to destroy many Russian EW systems. Attacking heavily fortified positions always comes at a great cost. The Ukrainian command had to take this into account. The most important thing, however, is that we still do not know whether the Ukrainians have already started the main attack.
Let's go back to blowing up the dam for a moment. It was most likely caused by the fact that the Russians were scared of the Ukrainian offensive. They had probably been preparing for such a step for some time. It is worth noting that the Ukrainian side has introduced a tight media blockade. Everything that appears on the Internet comes from the Russians and is often propaganda. It may be so in the days to come. Especially recordings of destroyed Ukrainian equipment should not cause panic. On offensives, equipment is destroyed and the attackers take casualties. We will find out in a few days what are the main directions of the attack and how the Ukrainian offensive is developing. It is worth waiting for this time with any conclusions.

If anyone had any doubts that russia is behind the destruction of Kakhovka Dam:
 
It was not the only dam they destroyed in the occupied southern regions. There seem to be clear strategy to flood the south to hinder the offensive. Most people have no Idea of the severity of the longterm consequences(past the flooding) for the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam alone. It completly ruins the argricultural economy of the south. This is a complete desaster. I can't find the right words.
This has to be one of the most effective scorched earth strategy in history.
The silence of UN and ICRC is damning. No international help from NGOs at the moment.
There HAS to be a western response.
 

Seeing as though it's such a quiet news day I'll just drop this here.
UA getting even more help from the Czechs:
 
 

Seeing as though it's such a quiet news day I'll just drop this here.
UA getting even more help from the Czechs:
 
 

Seeing as though it's such a quiet news day I'll just drop this here.
UA getting even more help from the Czechs:
 
 

DIY osint with this handy unit patch database => OWL Unit Mapper (owlmaps.github.io)   

The timing and the cui bono are so strongly in one direction it's going to take quite a bit for me to believe it wasn't an intentional act by Russia. Benefit of the doubt simply doesn't apply here.