Aragorn2002
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Posts
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Posts posted by Aragorn2002
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2 minutes ago, dan/california said:
I have suggested any number of times that the U.S. Air Force Start killing every Russian in Ukraine, and more to the point, every single logistics node. The_Capt says that letting Ukraine grind it out is the lower risk option, but if every single Vatnik had to start walking home because their was simply no food, no gas, and no bullets. they might reconsider their choices in like by the time they had swim/wade the third or fourth freezing river. The_Capt is probably right. But the balance is closer than most people think.
I have been banging on for a while that Putin's cronies probably stole more money from the strategic rocket forces than anywhere else, simply because if they were ever ordered to fire them, they were all going to die, anyway. This would be exhibit A
Even a missile they actually wanted to launch for propaganda purposes failed. Biden probably laughed all the way back to Poland. I do wonder how many people that got an express ticket to Bakmuht?
My question was aimed at LukeF, but thanks for your interesting answer.
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3 hours ago, LukeFF said:
The way this is going, "fighting for it" is going to mean direct NATO involvement within the next 12-24 months, i.e. troops on the ground in Ukraine.
For all countless money spent on this war and the claim that the Russian military is just a bunch of boobs, we're stuck now with a stalemate that has no end in sight and yes, a US government saying they're going to continue pouring funds into this latest foreign adventure, come hell or high water, and oh yeah, we're going to find Ukrainian pensions while we're at it.
So what would you suggest?
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5 hours ago, dan/california said:
Because Xi and Putin really want the same thing. Absolute totalitarian power for themselves, to be able to order executions on a whim. Everything Putin wants to do in Ukraine, Xi has already done in Xinjiang, among other places. The fact that aligning with Russia could not be less in the interest of the Chinese people matters less than nothing. It is all about maintaining the power and position of Xi, and the top tier of his faction of the CCCP. To change the Chinese calculus you must threaten the interest of those people. Which is why I think adult children of every Russian oligarch partying all over London, Ibiza, and other European playgrounds ought to be rounded up and sent home. Make it very clear it can happen to the children of the Chinese Elite currently installed in better colleges all over the U.S..
I would start by putting two on a plane to some airport Wagner controls, see what their dad says in his next show. Is that nice? No, but neither is trench warfare in Bakmuht.
Well said!
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Ukraine war: What support is China giving Russia?
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18 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:
Ok, first thoughts after Biden adress:
- Very, very strong announcement of long-term commitment to Ukraine.
- Framed as binaries between democracy vs. despoty; very clear references to Putin as autocrat, dictator, and war criminal- they seem to be now regular terms used by this administration, not just slips of Biden's himself.
-A lot of "what we stand for"; surprsingly, quite clear and devoid of too much pathos (personal opinion, but this is rare time where "Saving Private Ryan" type of narraton is at its place and does not sound too bombastic, at least in the eyes and ears of people in CEE).
-Adressing domestic issues ("There can not be democracy without providing people with basic needs")
-Very specific mentions of Finland, Belarussian opposition and Moldova. Interesting.
-Dangers looming on horizons (China...) and that "we need to leave a world that is better for our kids and grandchildren"; next 5 years "will be decisive".
Now since it was in Poland I may be biased, but frankly I loved it, as well as my family and friends here. Very clear message West is standing where it was, on the top of bold trip in Kyiv- all of it couldn't be more opposite to sleepy, boring Putin's "defence adress". Some peole are complaining it was devoid of concretes, but this is not the type of announcments one makes in adress of that type.
That man did more to restore my faith in the US than Fire and Rubble.
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36 minutes ago, Huba said:
Vladimir Vladimirovich is speaking live. At the moment nothing special, words "Nazi" and "West" are being repeated quite often.
When that man breathes, he lies.
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3 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:
Is this reported anywhere else? It seems beyond credulity that Russia would try to start a war against NATO. Especially after relentlessly striving to destroy its own military for the past year.
Yes, this official. But instead of attack, it should be read as sabotage. With all those extremist right wingers, climate activists etc the Russians have a rich choice of volunteers.
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10 minutes ago, Sir Lancelot said:
I’m afraid you haven’t figured out autocrat’s mentality. People such as Putin and Xi have inflated ego and genuinely believe that only they can rejuvenate their countries. First, they see themselves as paternal figures — policies, however draconian or bloody, are implemented for the long term good of the state. Second, they see themselves in a constant struggle against an opportunistic West that is ready to pounce at the slightest sign of weakness — therefore, as they perceive their countries are in a constant struggle for survival, they must have the courage to do the unsavory dirty work so that the motherland remains safe. Putin’s fight for Ukraine and China’s for Taiwan are not so much about expanding the empire but rather strengthening the empire by securing a sphere of influence so that the heartland is safe from aggression.
From whom? Sounds like you bought the Russian/Chinese propaganda. 'Yes, we're aggressive, but only to prevent aggression'.
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6 minutes ago, dan/california said:
Barring an attack of sense in Beijing, and the opposite seems to be happening, the lines of a new cold war are pretty clear. China, Russia, and Iran seem to moving towards forming a totalitarian block, with the U.S., EU, Japan, Australia, and South Korea on the other side. I think The_Capt spoke at some length about the extent to which the U.S. is twisting arms to get ducks in a row.
Edit: Just to be clear Aragorn was responding to the other Dan.
Answer nontheless appreciated, Dan.
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35 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
Let us all recall that Aragorn has been very sure that RU could not be trusted and would act aggressively, always. He also thought we were mostly overoptimistic in how RU would continue to make this war very hard for UKR. He was right. He seems to believe that Xi is just as crazy. I thought that economic interdependence would make aggressive war like this too stupid for even a dictator to attempt -- I was wrong. So now I look at China and say "they have nothing to gain that is even 1% of the economic damage they would do themselves". Yet it is now clear that doing something really obviously stupid and self defeating is no longer a barrier. Humans are crazy, especially dictator humans. It's like they get bored or something. Having complete power over 144M people, or 1B people, is just not enough it seems. Gotta always have a little more. Like a billionaire who goes to jail because he cheats on $10M in taxes -- how was that worth it?
Thanks, Dan. As always you're too kind. I don't have the knowledge like some of the frequent posters here, but I'm convinced this is just the beginning of a very long and nasty story.
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3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:
Wow, I actually agree with @Aragorn2002 for 2 posts in a row. I hope it's not a sign of the End Times lol.
Quite worrying indeed.
But we both know that can't last for long.
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3 hours ago, Sir Lancelot said:
That’ll be the surest way to convince Xi that his head is next on the chopping block if Putin’s fall. It will dramatically escalate this war to no one’s benefit.
Not necessarily. It will convince China that we don't buy their 'neutrality' and show them that they can't do it the Chinese way, which can be summarized as 'it isn't there as long as you don't talk about it'.
All that talk about escalation is completly unjustified, since Russia and China already chose that direction before the first Russian tank crossed the Ukrainian border and probably even a long time before that. It's the fear of escalation that brought us in this lousy situation in the first place.
Yes, acknowledge Taiwan as a sovereign state, and let's see how brave Xi really is.
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31 minutes ago, dan/california said:
U.S. seems pretty convinced China is going to start shipping Russia real military aid for use in Ukraine. The U.S.-Chinese trade relations are not going to hold if that happens. We really do need to put a division of Marines on Taiwan, and end this whole ambiguity thing once and for all.
It wouldn't surprise me if China has already started sending military aid to Russia some time ago. They are in a new Molotov-Ribbentrop pact together, as much as China tries to hide that fact in order to prevent sanctions from the West as long as possible. We're in a new Cold War with Russia/China. That's how I see it. So gloves off and masks away.
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2 hours ago, JM Stuff said:
Ahem !
Want only give a little diversity on the forum !
My dear friend. Please don't. Lobsters are for eating.
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12 hours ago, JM Stuff said:
Here you have your famous lobsters that I never understood in a forum, only this one are already on the earth !
God forbid.
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On 2/17/2023 at 12:18 AM, Butschi said:
As an update, my latest map build:
I (once more) reworked the buildings algorithm and roads/railways/streams. Mostly playing along nicely, although one has to take care not to have a too dense network, because then the algorithm won't be able to find a valid solution.
Now also with fence-like objects...
... and flavour objects.
So basically by now all the necessary functionality is there and working. Some things can be improved but that is more tweaking of cost functions, etc.
I am going to be working on maps for my first Agger Valley campaign, probably consisting of three missions. But afterwards I will go about making the tool available for everyone, I think.
(Which will involve tyding up, making a tutorial, etc.)
Looking great, Butschi. And superb news about the tool. I'm installing my new pc at the moment but for sure will dive into it, once your make it available. Vielen Dank!
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6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Russia bet too much on European self interests and divided US politics producing a 2008 Georgian or 2014/2015 Ukraine type response. Something uncomfortable, but not fundamentally destabilizing to the regime's economy and way of doing business. It did not anticipate anything that happened at the front, in politics, or economics. Again, if Putin had anticipated even 50% of what happened he would have likely chosen a far more restrained action.
Steve
It's the only answer that makes sense, but what a mistake to make. Vlad must really have a low opinion of the West.
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3 hours ago, kraze said:
It's possible if russians didn't expect AFU to burn through 3000 of their tanks with 300 of our own.
I mean 10:1 on paper looked so easy they fully expected to win the war in 3 days.
Why would russians needed to think about this with such an advantage and a guaranteed blitzkrieg?
Well, because one way or the other it would be the beginning of a Cold War and sanctions from the West.
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2 hours ago, MikeyD said:
There reports pretty early last year that Russian tank assembly lines had hut down completely due to lack of components. More recently there was footage of them refurbishing increasingly old vehicles.
I see. Hard to imagine. Sounds a lot like wishful thinking to me. Surely they must have been prepared for that somehow.
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Question. What do we know about the Russian weapon industry with regard to production of tanks, artillery, IFV and such? How many tanks are they able to produce each month for instance?
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48 minutes ago, sburke said:
is it Slovakia bashing day yet?
Always Slovakia. Such an unpredictable country.
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1 hour ago, Vacillator said:
Oh you mean football Jacob
?
Reminds me of British sports presenter Des Lynam, who attempted on a live broadcast to say 'Cup Soccer' but came out with 'C**k Sucker' instead - hilarious if you're bit childish like me.
Haha, great story! Yes, football, Tim.
I"m probably the only dutchman who prefers Rugby.
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2 hours ago, DesertFox said:
Close Combat
Cool!
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42 minutes ago, Raptor341 said:
100%
Defeat, Discredit, Disarm
Edited
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Let's hope they will be there sooner that the Abrams. Not enough for USA bashing day perhaps, but very disappointing if true;
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/02/23/tanks-might-not-reach-ukraine-this-year-us-army-secretary-says/