LongLeftFlank
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Posts posted by LongLeftFlank
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That said, dividing all the above figures by 2 *may* yield a credible estimate for AFU losses since the start of the war. Perun talks a little about this in one of his recent vids.
2. Maybe some NAFO fellas could generate a long festive video of RU vehicles blazing like torches to play in place of those Yule log videos.
3. Short but interesting clip of UA drone strikes on RU emplacements. No gore, but good details. Note covered trenches. A couple months old based on foliage.
4. 14 minute BBC doco on the fate of Russia's 155th Marines. Probably a little dumbed down for this board but well done for lay audiences; core of the tactical analysis is minutes 8 - 10.
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32 minutes ago, OBJ said:
This clearly will take a lot of collaborative high caliber intellect, way out of my league, still you gotta luv a 'Good Airborne Solution'
Sorry, gotta meme you here, it's my way. Besides, Micronauts!
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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:
Here is just small part of combined work FPV, dron dropping and artilelry - dozens of Russian bodies left near the fence of coke plant. This location already known as "Fence of the Death". Without drones, Russian already would be fight inside coke plant.
Interestingly, I think I posted some footage a week or so ago of UA sappers busily (cover your ears, @The_Capt) mining the gaps in this very fence. Looks like it paid off.
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So as the Chairman exhorts us to 'seek truth from facts', 'learn from the peasants' and 'conduct rigorous self-criticism', I visited a pro-Russian feed to see what they are showing lately in the way of hohol doom and destruction that has been hidden from we bourgeois dupes and stooges in our echo chamber.
Hilarity ensues (for some definition of hilarity). Yes, there's also some destroyed equipment but no context (where, when, how much).
1. "Training of Belarusian military personnel with soldiers of the Wagner Group continues."
2. Wot, behind the rabbit?
3. Dumb alligator tricks
4. OK, some beardos talking and walking is the righteous fist of Allah or sumfink?
*****
Zoka got outed and his site was repurposed, but Geroman is still on the job. The footage is not without interest, but hardly supports the claims in the caption (that's true of UKR footage of course at times).
Here too.
Not sure I've ever seen a UA soldier in a steel pot with no helmet liner though, so not clear these hapless hohols aren't Russian or separs.
5. OK, this does seem to be a UA road column being shot to hell but jump cuts make it hard to tell what's going on. The drone strikes clip is actually more interesting to me: I know it's very much 'anecdata' and this is a built up (rubbled) battlespace, but do the Rooskies lean toward using SPV drones and Lancets in clusters as ersatz mortars, as opposed to the more curated strikes we see posted by the UA? (no firm conclusion reachable here, just something to look for)
Anyway, for what it's worth.
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RESOLVED: 'Accuracy over mass is going to win this war'.
Discuss.
(jk, that's like the last 3100 pages)
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Been seeing a fair number of these kills of AD systems over the last month. I know very little about air defence, so not much sense of how badly each of these 'hurts' Ivan.
So per Wiki, it looks like the Russian Army has about 350 Buk SAM launchers of all types. No count on Zhitel jammers.
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Well evidently somebody thinks moar mech is the key to breaking the deadlock
The Ukrainian army is forming five new mechanized brigades. On paper, the 150th, 151st, 152nd, 153rd and 154th Mechanized Brigades represent a significant force—a five-percent expansion of the Ukrainian ground forces....
The brigades reportedly are drawing their cadres of experienced officers and non-commissioned officers from existing brigades, while filling out their 2,000 or so other billets with new recruits.
In practice, the Ukrainians seem to appreciate that brigades lose fighting vehicles fast while in combat, and need access to ample stocks of replacement vehicles.
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Avdiivka. I think the vids were posted before but this presentation gives helpful operational context.
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Perun from last month has some very relevant discussion of EW, and how it is keeping the ''Drone Apocalypse" at bay for the moment; last 1/3 of the hour, although the rest is also worthwhile as usual.
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7 hours ago, squatter said:
The parallels with WW1 are increasingly glaring and not just a casual observation based on the digging of trenches. Defence is king. Advances are counted in the 100s of meters, not 100s of miles. Look at the images: men getting blasted to hell by high-explosives for the sake of a farmer’s field, a treeline or a shattered hamlet. It’s a lunar hellscape across 100s of km of front. Towns and villages erased and rendered probably never again inhabitable.
Welcome, and let me offer you cigars and brandy from the Skeptics lounge.
You're definitely not the only one getting WW1 vibes here.
Bonus (Canadian clickbait)
Somewhere between the 'Belarusian spetsnaz break bricks with head' division and the 'only a lumberjack stirs his coffee with his thumb' division.
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3 hours ago, danfrodo said:
And to the folks that think the end is nigh. No, they are not about to take over the world. It's a heckuva lot of work & effort & smart coding just to get them to move boxes properly. This is the current prototype, shown above & called Digit, and it's being used in warehouses for jobs that people don't like.
Good thread by Perpetua noting that not all tech on this new battlefield paradigm needs to be hi-tech.
Another interesting minithread here.
https://nitter.net/AndrewPerpetua/status/1734387176492716074#m
P.S. Is it just me, or has Elon has effed around with the Twitter yet again, to inhibit embedding of tweet images in other media?
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8 hours ago, The_Capt said:
2 years ago I would have been the first to call it pure science fiction but after watching this last year it may be time.
https://www.axios.com/2023/12/05/humanoid-robot-factory-agility-bipedal-amazon
If not slaughterbots just yet, at least a source of quick and dirty mine tramplers and ammo bearers?
...Of course, since these startups need funding all their core IC is already out during the vapourware stage, which means China Inc. can and will beat them to 'market' with crappy but functional knockoffs.
Whatever happens we have got / the Maxim gun / and they have (Not!)
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8 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:
After reading the last few pages I have a sudden urge to give the ignore feature a try.
Let the record show, this is the first time I have ever used this feature on this forum.
It doesn't help much, sadly, since others just keep quoting and arguing with him.
Look, there are tough questions to discuss here around actions Ukraine may need to make urgently if it is to stay in this war, much less 'win'. And there's a lot of room for differences of view on those.
But I for one am not about to waste time chasing down Carlson/tankie talking points at the bidding of some rando who argues at the level of a bright 17 year old off his meds. He brings less than nothing to this conversation.
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30 minutes ago, kevinkin replacement said:
How is this trolling, exactly? I'm dealing with the same information as everyone else.
If I choose, I can get the tankie view over on NakedCapitalism, which is basically the same rubbish you're spouting here. You're done.
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OK, the longer you guys try to engage @kevinkin replacement and his Gish Gallop (look it up) blasts of overconfident yet entirely unsupported broad projectile vomits of 'alternative facts' the more unreadable this thread becomes.
If he really wants to be our good faith house contrarian, he needs to post credible third party information, then give his take, one or two points at a time and allow time for reubuttal.
Otherwise, this is just garden variety trolling.
...This is what happens when nobody posts information and just bloviates and emotes.
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15 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:
Anyone else here think that UA should push another couple battalions across the Dnpro in a different spot, to keep stressing these overextended RU scratch forces and their inexperienced commands by forcing them to move around?
The Krynki bridgehead, which is now evidently 'contained' (all those covered entrenchments on drier ground across the highway), now seems to have served its military purpose and can be evacuated.
Whack a mole on the lower Dnpr....
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13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Dude. Guess what I just watched 5 days ago for the first time in about 20 years? No, go on, guess!
Steve
As I continue to pore over frontline maps, I find myself looking not for 'defensible positions' like villes and tree lines, but for linear obstacles like this canal. With a nice deep, flat, open killing zone in front of it that Ukraine should be sowing like crazy with mines, plus RF sensors to triangulate and target their tactical drone controllers. Invite 'em in, then kill em by the bushel. They can't go forward and won't be allowed back.
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51 minutes ago, dan/california said:
It is not at all clear to me that Tanks/IFVs/mech anything is a thing going forward.
Ha ha mate, at this point it is not at all clear to me that ANY of:
a. tanks/IFVs/mech
b. aircraft
c. artillery (other than PGMs)
d. infantry (other than sappers)
e. field fortifications
f. tactical terrain (other than water and bogs)
...are a thing going forward, at least in terms of leveraging them to deliver meaningful results.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-12-2023
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14 minutes ago, Carolus said:
Some regions in Russia are experiencing a shortage of chicken eggs.
Sorry, I can't think of Eggs without thinking of one of the 10 all time best war film sequences (epic B25 takeoff included)
*****
Drone bros in their hide. Note the 'US ARMY' patches on their parkas although I suspect these are made in Bangladesh....
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2 hours ago, Haiduk said:
6 of these missiles have fell in 2-3 km from my home. I heard very loud explosions and seen bright spashes in darkness through the curtain.
Take care, brother Haiduk!
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Interesting RU side assessment, though not yet sure what the drone revolution thinks of 'commanding heights'.
... there is nothing 'sensitive' but text.
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PR might be the least of UA command's worries right now, but fair enough. Don't see Zelenskyy smiling much these days; he clearly gets it.
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7 hours ago, Zeleban said:
"The bridgehead now rests solely on mines. The air assault division began to drive directly into positions from the forest in an infantry fighting vehicle and land troops. There was a day when everyone thought that the bridgehead would be pushed into the water. And we were all urgently involved in mining in the rain. We flew in the rain because we had no choice. And the mines had been completed several weeks before, so a high percentage of explosions were required immediately.
All assaults stop at mines. They have been attacking continuously for four days, but we have stabilized the situation a little and they are not reaching our positions. In fact, it's hell here right now. In a week and a half, the Rashians lost up to 10 armored personnel carriers, up to 10 tanks and 20-25 infantry fighting vehicles. The forest and Krynki are littered with iron. But the meat storms continue. Today is the first day when the assault was limited to the 2nd armored personnel carrier. Unfortunately, our progress (meaning on the left bank) has been stopped..."
Solid report, many thanks.
Twitterverse isn't yielding much insight on the frontline situation over the last few days.
....There is this;
WARNING
this is (recent) drone bombing clips from Bakhmut area, and EXTREMELY graphic and awful, but filmed in some of the highest resolution I've seen, as in modder resource quality textures of snowy/muddy ground, trees, kit, explosions, etc. That's the only reason I am posting it here, for those who have the stomach.
One observation: these troops seem more professionally and uniformly equipped than many others we have been seeing, also fitter. So this could be an elite VDV unit being horribly dismembered here. Teplinski doesn't have an infinite number of those, and like a wolf-dog at some point they could turn....
Less graphic but also modder-interesting, a slideshow of still shots, many good quality (though some repeat) of what Brigadier Hackett once described as the 'indescribable mess of war'.
Tik Tok time from Teddy Bear...
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I want to play CM on a pregnancy test. Can @Battlefront Charles get right on that please?
(found via this blog post) https://taylor.town/pardon-2023
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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by LongLeftFlank
1. Interesting thread by DavidD SecretSqrl on the Bradley (I'm not an armour grog and DavidD can be hit or miss, but he does seem to have a fair amount of hands on US Army experience with Brads).
2. For what it's worth, comments by a German expert.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3801146-situation-on-front-lines-in-ukraine-not-hopeless-german-expert.html
Nico Lange noted that many forget that 95% of the equipment donated by Ukraine's partners had not been used during the counteroffensive....
Ukrainians continue to bet on exhaustion. "They are no longer trying to hold positions like they did in Bakhmut. Instead, they want to slow down the Russian troops and let them bleed."
"Ukraine is probably gathering resources for a new counteroffensive next year," Lange said. One of their starting points could be the bridgehead in Kherson. With the necessary fighter jets, attack helicopters and drones, Ukraine could adequately support the advance of its troops, especially since there are almost no Russian fortifications in this region.
I doubt that last remark on fortifications, but I heartily agree that the far left end of the Russian advance is a good place to strike, if only to force them to deplete their mobile forces responding. Not with mech though; mech is pretty much roadbound down here.
btw, there's a lot of hand wringing about the Russian air delivered heavy glide bombs hitting the Krynki bridgehead with 'impunity'. While I'd hate to be under these things, I look at that a little more glass half full; the Russians don't have enough artillery so they're forced to hunt an ant invasion using a sledgehammer.