LongLeftFlank
-
Posts
5,357 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
15
Posts posted by LongLeftFlank
-
-
15 minutes ago, Kraft said:
The Dutch have made very sizeable contributions, this however seems to come to an end now with (another) anti-EU alt right wing populist getting elected in Europe.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-election-dutch-wilders-idUSBREA3G1CS20140417/
I don't disbelieve you, and my interest in politics is limited (and arguing it here is fairly pointless and neverending), but could you perhaps provide a substantive Wilders quote on Ukraine later than 2014, and preferably later than Feb 2022?
-
On 11/17/2023 at 12:11 AM, kohlenklau said:
...and sweep his cabbage chomping commie butt off the hill.
-
This is about more than F16s.
Thread, with some useful comments:
https://nitter.net/Tatarigami_UA/status/1726666114124403025#m
-
17 hours ago, dan/california said:
Corroboration? (I don't know the source)
-
3 hours ago, dan/california said:
Ah, remember the good old times when we would be quipping about Ivans crapping their pants when they glimpsed one of these beauties?
2. I have no idea what it detects but evidently it ain't gonna be doing that no mo'
More here: https://nitter.net/HamWa07/status/1727057429152649360#m
3. This is just as advertised, a 'day in the life', several long GoPro sequences, unedited. No 'dramatic' action takes place; the section doesn't leave their trenches until they remount at the end and never see the enemy (he's in grenade range at one point), but guys do get wounded (female medic). Skip to daylight at 2:30 or so.
-
1 hour ago, Zeleban said:
I'm ready to admit anything, just let's stop this stupid argument
On the main topic, I believe control of Kinburn spit and the lands south and east of there (to Oleshki/Oleshki sands, preferably) is the single most valuable chunk of additional real estate for Ukraine to take back prior to contemplating any cease fire. And it just happens to be the hardest bit for the Russians to sustain and defend.
This is a very unique battlespace, and it seems to me that Ukraine holds all the cards here. If Ivan is determined to hold here, the Ukies can beat the ever living hell out of him all winter and through the spring, with great economy of force.
Also....
Translation: Following the digitalization of the route of the Dnieper in November 2023 (according to Sentinel-2 images), I found a German map from 1942 where we can notice that the river has today returned to its initial route.
The marshier the better!
-
7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Poor old LLF...I am pretty sure they are called sex industry workers now.
Wait, isn't there a classic Forum post that claims authority on some CM topic based on regular patronage of a strip club called 'New York Dolls'?
-
11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Or giant curvaceous legs in fishnet stockings to distract the Russian operators.
Or inflatable love dolls giving off IR heat signatures uncannily similar to hohols.
-
1 hour ago, The_Capt said:
I suspect that the required balloon density to make a viable screen is so high that it is impractical. A Ju-87 Stuka had a wingspan of around 45ft. That is roughly 15 times larger than a good sized UAS this war. I think trying to put up and sustain a small wire-balloon screen around any major site would likely take thousands, maybe tens of thousands of light balloons. Those would be more vulnerable to weather and likely would need to be replaced constantly, assuming you could even source that many.
Also the WW2 experience was pretty hit and miss:
Effective? 231 V1s brought down out of over 10k fired is not a great screen. Better than nothing…but. Interestingly the V1 were equipped with wire cutters, which of course will be the counter especially for lighter wires for UAS screens.
If tracking analysis were to prove that some of these lower tech devices are programmed to navigate along roads in conjunction with a TERCOM altimeter, then it might make sense to set 'traps' for them.
Winch up 2 balloons after dark, with a light filament fishing net strung between and reel 'em in....
They'd just use a strand of creeper.... Wot, held beneath the dorsal guiding feathers?
-
From General Syrskyi, Ukraine's 'Old Blood N Guts'.
Just you keep attacking on all fronts there, Russia. Especially way down here...
If the Ukes cut highway M14, Russian forces in the entire Dnpr delta get starved for supplies; they need to come by boat or air (risky!)
2. Clever!
4. Note....
-
4 hours ago, cyrano01 said:
Clearly they need a 'New Model Army'
Exactly! Rocks much harder than post-1980 Billy Joel (ach ptoo).
Also, for the 'nightmares come to life' files....
Poster is an Aerorozvidka guy recovering from wounds, messing with AI. (And speaking of messing with AI - OT but hilarious)
-
2 hours ago, Rokko said:
Anyways, I wanted to use this opportunity to re-post my favorite video of this kind
I'm your huckleberry (hound).
-
31 minutes ago, Zeleban said:
It's actually Bradley's shooting.
Sure, but not all of it.
Armchair quarterback notes that fire discipline isn't great in general for the UA since the start of the war. Western ammo stocks aren't infinite. Another good reason to have that heads up drone-fed display we were discussing above... if you gonna spray and pray at least make it directionally accurate.
...Also that patch of woodlands is gonna be measurably radioactive for quite some decades. On top of the UXO and other contaminants.
-
3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
This from ISW's November 19th report. It is relevant to the recent conversation about Russia's problems with DLPR combat forces integration:
Russia is 9 years into this conflict, having created and managed DLPR forces since the very beginning, and nearly 2 years since the full scale invasion. Yet Russia STILL hasn't fully integrated DLPR into its force structure. It seems like Russia might be getting a little frustrated by this!
Steve
As I understand it, this separation was by design, to give Putin (indirectly) true dictatorial powers over the separ forces and citizenry that he could not (at least not until lately) wield over Russian citizens. That's also part of why these 'republics' weren't previously declared part of Russia.
Massive casualties in the separ units have required them to drop most of that since late 2022. Russian mobiks too are finding that many of the procedural barriers some refuseniks were able to use earlier in the 'SMO' to prevent them from being sent to Ukraine are no longer observed.
There was actually a small amount of 'rule of law' in prewar Russia. Not 'justice' as we understand it, more an ability of savvy people to work loopholes in the system. No more; it is now 'rule by law' (law being whatever the Authorities say it is on any given day). That's another permanent casualty of this conflict.
-
1. Topo. There was also a clip of the infamous slag heap but I can't find it now.
Source: https://nitter.net/Pouletvolant3
****
2. Yup, as we suspected, the Ukes are hitting Ivan where it hurts, drawing out his last(?) mobile forces to the very end of their tether then hitting them at full stretch.
Would love to see more of this, induced via special Psyops units in places where the front is more porous and less heavily mined.
3.
4. Look at the intensity of the mortar fire (?) around the evac zone! 82mm Vasilek or CBUs?
-
10 minutes ago, chrisl said:
Now put a fast computer and data link in the drone and give the guys on the ground (or at least their non-com) AR goggles connected to it and you've got borg spotting.
In close contact, taking your eyes off your environment is likely unwise, but perhaps provide some kind of feedback from drone spotters via a weapon scope or NV goggles, showing bearing and distance to enemy positions? A year ago I would have said that's sci-fi, but now....
-
Interesting pairing of CM Level 1 and Level 4 tactical assault footage, for the first minute anyway. Hopefully there's a longer version out there.
Per Necromancer, seems to be Bakhmut area and 'not recent' (although notice the hard frost)
-
6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
You cut me deep man. I write pages on sacrifice dynamics and you give Bearstronaut (what the hell is that anyway? One who journeys across bears) the win? I think we may need some relationship counselling.
Come on man, after 3000 pages you know I only really deal in superficial one-liners, preferably paired with memes or song lyrics.
My best guess as to the origin of @Bearstronaut's handle is here. (and I totally want the score as a ringtone)
-
-
27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
In general, the state of a nation's capital tends to distort the nation's health in either direction. The obvious "the capital is spotless and vibrant" is more well known and can be seen in places like North Korea, where inordinate amounts of the nation's resources are invested in putting on a good show for the world. There is also the opposite where people attach too much significance on the state of the capital. Japan, France, UK, etc. you hear people judging how expensive it is to live in country X because of how expensive it is to live in the capital. Generally if you drive 10 minutes outside of the capital prices start dropping off dramatically.
How this pertains to Russia is quite important. We've discussed before how important Moscow and St. Petersburg (in particular) are to regime stability. If he loses support there, he's screwed even if the rural areas remain faithful. Conversely, the big urban areas can't survive without the rural areas willingly sacrificing on their behalf. When Putin is faced with a decision to screw over one or the other, he will most likely screw over the rural areas because they are more willing to accept less. But there will come a point where they won't. And if that comes at the same time that the urban areas feel they aren't getting "their fair share", revolution won't be far behind. This is what brought down the Soviet Union more than anything else.
So far Russia has had enough money and goods to keep the Muscovites comfortable enough that they aren't ready to riot. How much of this is coming at the expense of the rural supporters? Hard to say precisely, but indications are that both are on a downward trend.
Steve
As @Bearstronaut astutely commented a few pages back, Sacrifice® is far easier when it's offloaded/offshored onto some other poor dumb bastige.
-
3 hours ago, The_Capt said:
I am actually kinda surprised that we have not seen tac nukes or chemical yet in this war to be honest.
Yeah, I have been wondering too whether the Russians might crack the lid on chemical weapons, if not to 'break' the stalemate, at least to amp up strain on the UA infantry and LOCs.
1. Purely militarily, would (rocket delivered*) agents be helpful in reducing a fixed position like Avdiivka? Could they kill and disrupt enough to allow Russian troops to occupy the salient without becoming debilitated themselves (well, give or take a few hundred more mobiks, yawn)?
2. Could they conduct more 'focused' attacks (and are these militarily useful, or is gas warfare still really a blunt instrument, only useful in saturation quantities across large areas)?
And by also tossing around some tear gas, WP and thermite, could they muddy things enough to just loudly deny deny deny it all, intending to control the critical real estate before an organised investigation, air and soil sampling, etc. can occur? (thinking here about the many reported incidents in Syria)
3. Politically, whether or not we could 'prove it', what could the West do in response that we're not doing already? Send NBC gear, fine. But it's not like we're in a position to send the UA chemical warheads.
...And short of them gassing civilians in quantity, would it be a casus belli for intervention? I personally doubt it. Just another folder for the war crimes file.
* aerial spray / crop duster delivery being assumed unavailable, unless large drones could somehow do it on a local basis
-
1 hour ago, Haiduk said:
Just for information - the composition and price of UKR "Aerorozvidka" R18 drone complex, notorious "Baba Yaga" (ugly old evil witch, from Russian fairy tales) as it called by Russians
-
Kamil still beating the drums over European suppliers funneling precision tools to Russia.
-
5 minutes ago, Khalerick said:
I imagine most people who haven't let emotions melt their brains have made this observation. The required effort here hinges largely on putting the ball in the Russians' court and letting the weaknesses of their military doctrines do the rest.
Engaging in offenses into the teeth of Russian defenses, or engaging them in attritional warfare are losing efforts. Maybe you'll lengthen the war, but you're going to lose in the end. Per a previous post, 90% of the casualties are committed by artillery. In another previous post, an analyst believes Russia is dumping 275+ artillery pieces onto the front every single month, compared to Ukraine's 20+. Let's throw in the 120+ monthly Russian T-55's/T-62's which are being used in support artillery roles. That's potentially up to a 20:1 firepower deficit, not including the massive firepower found in the form of missiles and drones which also tilts heavily in Russia's favor.
Ukraine should have given up territory to invite Russian advances and pounced on them in turn. The offensive Ukraine launched, though, ultimately does not surprise me. Attacking across open ground with zero air supremacy in this day and age? Just a little bit of criminal negligence, that's all. You have to understand, though, that in the West its military thinking hasn't been tied to winning wars for about 60+ years now. It's more focused on fighting them, which is a key difference, one heavily attached to the massive amounts of $$$ corrupting the armed forces. It says a lot that the Ukrainian armed forces would've done infinitely better under the thinking of some hardnosed Afghans than these corrupt generals who always have one foot in the door of the nearest Lockheed, GD, Boeing, etc., and who dedicate more resources to emotional propaganda than to tailoring their fighting forces to the realities arrayed before them.
Erich von Manstein, is that you?
Politically of course, it's not quite so easy to yield significant chunks of territory to this enemy. But Ukraine did so, at Lyman and Sieverdonetsk/Lysychansk, and ultimately at Bakhmut. They also fell back from the the Svatove area, letting the Russians be the ones to flounder about in that no mans' land maze of balkas.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by LongLeftFlank
Thanks, but not recent enough. I want to hear in his own words -- and since the war began -- not filtered through the lens of people who hate his guts for other reasons.
****
I mean, most people here know that I identify as 'conservative' (albeit that probably doesn't mean what you might think it does), and I utterly fail to see why any 'conservative' would favour Putin's insane delusions of Russian Manifest Destiny, or his decaying mafia petrostate, over the vigorous, hybrid and above all recognisably European society of stubbornn brilliant improvisers and tinkerers that Ukraine has turned out to be.
....It's as though the French crown were to look at the American Patriots after 1779 and say, you know what, you've done surprisingly well, annihilating Burgoyne's army and denying the redcoats the hinterlands and all that, huzzah for you. But you know those long campaigns in New Jersey and the Carolinas really didn't go as well as we all hoped, plus Rochambeau lost a lot of kit up in Providence.
So isn't it time you stopped wasting blood and treasure and sued for peace now? Hey, maybe King George will grant you 'those rights of Englishmen' that still looked good back in 1775.