LongLeftFlank
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Posts posted by LongLeftFlank
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28 minutes ago, Holien said:
Ahhh the beauty of hindsight...
What a joke....
Like the C̶a̶d̶i̶l̶l̶a̶c̶ Thread overturning in slow motion, down a cliff, on television.
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On 2/12/2024 at 11:10 PM, markshot said:
Folks,
I am not here for a debate.
Oh, oh I'm sorry, this is Abuse....
Ah, don't let these grumpy old cranks put you off!
Exploring possibility space is just fine IMHO, so long as the substantial gaps to meaningful implementation are also appreciated.
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(LinkedIn commentary): If you think OpenAI Sora is a creative toy like DALLE, ... think again. Sora is a data-driven physics engine. It is a simulation of many worlds, real or fantastical. The simulator learns intricate rendering, "intuitive" physics, and long-horizon consistency, all by some denoising and gradient maths.
I won't be surprised if Sora is trained on lots of synthetic data using Unreal Engine 5. It has to be!
Let's breakdown the following video. Prompt: "Photorealistic closeup video of two pirate ships battling each other as they sail inside a cup of coffee."
https://cdn.openai.com/sora/videos/ships-in-coffee.mp4
- The simulator instantiates two exquisite 3D assets: pirate ships with different decorations. Sora has to solve text-to-3D implicitly in its latent space.
- The 3D objects are consistently animated as they sail and avoid each other's paths.
- Fluid dynamics of the coffee, even the foams that form around the ships. Fluid simulation is an entire sub-field of computer graphics, which traditionally requires very complex algorithms and equations.
- Photorealism, almost like rendering with raytracing.
- The simulator takes into account the small size of the cup compared to oceans, and applies tilt-shift photography to give a "minuscule" vibe.
- The semantics of the scene does not exist in the real world, but the engine still implements the correct physical rules that we expect.Next up: add more modalities and conditioning, then we have a full data-driven UE that will replace all the hand-engineered graphics pipelines.
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Yes, there's a fundamental category error here in the utter failure to distinguish Ukrainians, who are overwhelmingly fighting for their nation and elected government, from Iraqis or Afghans who overwhelmingly defer to their local tribal or religious leaders, who in turn decide which flag to salute, or not.
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19 minutes ago, Kinophile said:
So this thread is now called, "How Hot is The American General Election Gonna Get?"...
Just so I'm clear. For myself.
Yes, the smell of hair on fire is getting a little thick in here, innit?
I mean, if the thread regulars want to agonise over the fall of the Republic in the context of Ukraine, maybe look at something more directly relevant than microplaning DJT's latest excretion?
https://www.construction-physics.com/p/what-happened-to-the-us-machine-tool
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31 minutes ago, sburke said:
The seat next to me is open! Oddly folks come over, sit next to me and shortly thereafter move somewhere else. Maybe it is just meant to be so c'mon, sit down.
An' I said, “Litterin'.”
An' they all moved away from me on the bench there, an' the hairy eyeball an' all kinds of mean nasty things.
...Til I said, “*And* creating a nuisance.”
An' they all came back, shook my hand, an' we had a great time on the bench, talkin' about crime, mother stabbin', father rapin', all kinds of groovy things that we was talking about on the bench, an' everything was fine.
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16 hours ago, Kinophile said:
There's something about Syrsky that feels somehow more 'modern'. I'm not concerned (not that I've any right to be and my opinion of ZSU staffing is worth less than zero).
But of the two, I suspect in my bones that Syrsky could pull off transforming the front line from how the Russians want to fight into how the Ukrainians can and should fight. That is, I suspect that he will shift the tactical structure on the Ukrainian side from orienting on Lines (trenches, cities etc) to dominating spaces/volumes, avoiding static fixed points for RUS artillery to pound.
Currently, while RUS has the initiative I think its because the ZSU is fighting in the way that Russia needs it to in order for Russia to be able to get the initiative. The ZSU's current configuration values the same things as the Russians - lines on maps, place names, etc. Geography and overlayed political mapping, islands of resistance joined into a web of linear static priorities.
If the ZSU begins to fight in a different ways, like say around Kiev, valuing different things from the RUS and willing to trade what it values less for what it now values more, then they could achieve operational balance before unbalancing the Ivan.
Part of this idea is that the ZSU could deepen the front line zone, ignoring trenches, never staying put and constantly moving within a much broader battlespace. Flowing instead of standing. Utilizing C4ISR to constantly outflank and corroding the 1,2,3 echelons of Russian front lines all at once. IE simultaneously conduct attack-defence in the same zone, at the same time, where attack is defence and defence is attack, in contrast to the simplistic Russian approach focused on progressive subjugation of a series of points and lines.
Mobility would not be forced into or on the Russians but provided to the Ukrainians within their own "side" of the battle space. Blur the operational contact area between the forces and rapidly corrode tactically.
Zaluzhny can see the value of drones and their danger, within his existing viewpoint of military force. Sysrky, I hope, can see a new paradigm - or at least the need and path to one. I think he will initially focus very heavily on the training funnel, shifting to a smarter, more responsive and intuitive process. This will cost him time and space but provide him with better forces in the medium/long term, forces that can handle and expand a new tactical and operational mindset.
Good comment on the actual war, many thanks, a rarity over the last 10 thread pages.
...I guess only time will tell, but if Shanahan can reinvent football with dense formations, perhaps Syrsky can reinvent tactical warfare using some species of the opposite?
The 49ers Defy Modern Football. It’s Why They’re in the S̶u̶p̶e̶r̶ Taylor Bowl.
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
Boris Johnson was pretty blunt in his criticism of TC's interview:
Maybe BoJo should /sarc embrace the whole Global Criminal Mastermind shtick to fuel his political comeback. Comedians seem to be playing well in politix these days, after all
One day leading black hooded SAS speedboat commandos to hit the nuke plant, the next 'sploding the Nordstream pipeline from the deck of his luxury yacht.
...Maybe post some TikToks while stroking a Persian cat.
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3 hours ago, Erwin said:
I was surprised/shocked that such an experienced interviewer as TC seemed to be at sea and unable to structure his interview "professionally". He seemed all over the place, repetitive, and finally unable to conclude the interview with any memorable wrap up. It was left to poor old Putin to shoot the dying interview to put it out of its misery.
It was very interesting to hear Putin's perspective on how we got to where we are starting way back after after the fall of the USSR. But, imo much of the time Putin seemed rather "tricky" and "sly".
While clearly stating that the US empire is falling apart and the world is changing, Putin unintentionally made a good argument that USSR was like the Roman Empire and both were dissolved - and no one is saying that the Romans should get their empire back. But,TC didn't pick up on that at all.
https://tuckercarlson.com/the-vladimir-putin-interview/
In 2008, the doors of NATO were opened for Ukraine. In 2014, there was a coup. They started persecuting those who did not accept the coup, and it was indeed a coup. They created a threat to Crimea, which we had to take under our protection. They launched a war in Donbas in 2014 with the use of aircraft and artillery against civilians. This is when it all started. There's a video of aircraft attacking Donetsk from above. They launched a large-scale military operation, then another one. When they failed, they started to prepare the next one. All this against the background of military development of this territory and opening of NATO's. -- V.V. Putin
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It was Gimli the dwarf who broke in suddenly. 'The words of this wizard stand on their heads,' he growled, gripping the handle of his axe. 'In the language of Orthanc help means ruin and saving means slaying, that is plain. But we do not come here to beg.'
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17 minutes ago, Kraft said:
Just to circle this back on topic Id want to know where people think a soviet school general that as some claim won the battle of Bakhmut by having such a great casulties ratio advantage as to earn the nickname butcher (not of the enemy though) would innovate this trench warfare, besides the most likely approach of gaining ground by copying the russian tactic of charging people to their death, trench by trench.
Is that in fact what happened? (Tatarigami seems to agree with you, btw, but he wasn't there either. And his primary gripe AIUI seems to be that Bakhmut should have been ceded about a month earlier once it encountered diminishing returns).
...or were there now and then some positions that simply had to be retaken? and the guys who got shot up doing that are unhappy.
:strip_icc()/pic252850.jpg)
Hurtgenwald has been mentioned before, but the sad travails of the 'Bloody Bucket' don't extrapolate to the 'average' GI experience in NWE.
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17 hours ago, The_Capt said:
My overall point stands - there is a magic point in time and space when the right general meets the right moment, with the right army; this is consistent throughout history.
Now I have precisely the right instrument, at precisely the right moment of history, in exactly the right place.
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Fun Galeev short thread, related to his leitmotiv that the Mittelstand and its non-German counterparts is what is propping up the Russian war machine....
Nitter link to thread for those who don't X.
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12 hours ago, Carolus said:
Make Ukraine the new graveyard of empire.
I'm troubled by this, and here is why....
As an ordinary (non-professional class) Ukrainian man under 35, choosing between:
1. your patriotic duty to enlist as an frontline combat soldier in an increasingly (?) lethal conflict of unknown duration and
2. fleeing to the EU (or elsewhere), where you might start near bottom economically but keep your life and limbs, and over time may well live better than you would back in even a post-ceasefire Ukrainian armed camp / 'okrajina' ( borderlands) -- also, your more patriotic relatives will forgive you in time if you send money home.
... how many are choosing 'b' these days?
For 1916 poilus, landser and Tommies, there was no realistic 'b'.
Tatarigami....
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40 minutes ago, billbindc said:
This, all damn day: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2024.2309068
[Leading in to summer 2023] mobilisation had helped refill personnel levels within the Russian military and yielded more than 70 additional motor-rifle regiments, among other units*.... Russia had enough reserves to rotate in airborne regiments by September and generated additional combat power sufficient to launch its own offensive in Avdiivka in October....
In most battles in Ukraine, each side has been able to range the other’s ground lines of communication, command and control, and forward logistics, with the lines often separated by a few kilometres. With rare exceptions, the combatants could not control the engagement via fires, resulting in attritional warfare that could last weeks or months....
Although fire control appears impractical, Ukraine could instead cultivate an expanded long range strike capability for targeting key supporting elements of the Russian war effort far beyond tactical depths.... They should not be viewed as a substitute for close battle, however. No matter how abundant, long-range strike capability is not likely to force a collapse of Russian positions without another ground offensive....
Russia has several material advantages. It is likely to retain an artillery-fire edge over the course of the year and beyond. Russia will also continue regenerating combat power, recruiting more than 10,000 troops per month. It will probably hold the strategic initiative along much of the 1,000 km front line and expand its strike campaign against Ukraine given increased production of drones and cruise missiles.
* According to the Conflict Intelligence Team, a total of 123 military units were established, including 77 motor rifle regiments and 18 separate motor-rifle battalions. See ‘As Part of the Mobilization, More than 120 New Military Units Were Created in Russia. A Third of Those Called Up Were Sent to Personnel Units – To Make Up for Combat Losses’, Meduza, 5 October 2023
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https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraine-losing-drone-war-eric-schmidt
This January piece is mainly opinion, and bearish at that, but two interesting items here:
A Ukrainian battle commander also told me that FPV drones are more versatile than an artillery barrage at the opening of an attack. In a traditional attack, shelling must end as friendly troops approach the enemy trench line. But FPVs are so accurate that Ukrainian pilots can continue to strike Russian targets until their fellow soldiers are mere yards away from the enemy....
Ukraine aims to acquire more than two million drones in 2024—half of which it plans to produce domestically—and Russia is on track to at least match that procurement....
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8 minutes ago, David Jaros said:
Exactly we live in crazy world and war is not solution to anything
Armenians, and many many many other groups (too many to list) whose historical lands got 'solved' by war, progressively or all at once, might differ with that assessment.
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3 hours ago, kimbosbread said:
If Ukraine has enough deep strike drones (and they will), Russia may not have enough fuel to move all those vehicles up. The logistics tail for trucks, tanks etc is massive.
That deep strike drone thing cuts both ways of course, albeit with some lag and significant incompetence (to date) on the RU side.
At least until someone can scale down ECM jamming to squad level.
Depending on how 'deep' is deep, the Russian rail net seems like the lowest hanging fruit here. Hit trestles, culverts, etc., hit the stalled trains, hit the Pioneer repair crews, keep doing it. Every damn day.
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9 hours ago, The_Capt said:
My sense is that the entire planet is running low an artillery ammunition - Russia is buying from NK FFS. So 1) what is the production rate and cost of an FPV vs a decent artillery shell? And 2) why can’t we make longer range FPVs? The Swtichblade 600 has something like an 80 km range. The Spike NLOS LR, similar range. So we know we can do long range tac strike (hell, what is “tactical” even mean anymore?). Clearly we have the technology. Challenge is to make it cheaper and with enough mass to push out to 25-30 kms.
Why I am a fan of FPVs/loitering is the much lower military overhead costs. Lower logistical (fuel, maint and weight), lower training (FPV drivers vs gun crews, OP crews etc) and signature (eg exposure or enemy c-battery).
1 hour ago, dan/california said:the problem with artillery ammunition, and barrels, is that they have to withstand absurdly high stress.
Above is a very technical article from decades ago proving that a slightly cheaper grade of steel was not going to work. Virtually nothing in the civilian economy operates at the same kind of stress levels. So there is exactly as much capacity out there as the government has been willing to pay for. The single biggest lesson of this war is that we weren't paying for even a fraction of enough. What makes this much worse is that production machinery, and the machines to make the production machinery are just as specialized, and the capacity for all of it has withered with three plus decades of very low demand. Resurrecting all of that is requires serious engineering AFTER we get of our rear ends in gear and write the checks, and contracts to pay for it. We have done an absolutely crap job of doing that in a coherent way, that admits this problem isn't going away next week. Rheinmetal and the various U.S. defense contractors need SIGNED CONTRACTS to even get started. Two years in many of those contracts STILL aren't signed. It is a an epic case study in refusing to admit there is a war on.
There is real engineering being done on dragging whole process from 1950s tech up to something modern, but please note the 2025 delivery date for the first new model shells.Drones are pretty much the polar opposite in terms of the difficulty of manufacturing. Every single piece that goes into them is common civilian tech. The actual warheads are usually RPG rounds simply because there are warehouses full of them around. There is nothing particularly complicated about designing warhead for drone use that would be lighter, cheaper and more effective. Because drones do not undergo the enormous stresses that being fired even from a RPG, much less a 155mm artillery barrel impose. Any thin wall tubing would work just fine. Soda cans would probably work just fine. Someone just has to decide to order five million of the bleeping things and it ought to be possible to put together a factory in six months that can make a thousand of them an hour with out ever being touched by a human hand. Somebody just has to make a decision and write a contract. The Ukrainians seem to have been trying to get this underway, but nobody else is trying nearly hard enough.
At the risk of being over my skis yet again here, can 152/155mm tube artillery be largely superseded in frontline use by a combo of:
-> drones for swarming or hunting mobile targets, and for nearly all forms of precision work and harassing fire
-> mortars for plastering attackers driven to ground by the drones. Are there cluster rounds for 122mm mortars?
-> heavy rockets mounted on a variety of mobile launchers, for demolishing fixed positions once identified
... with the other systems (HIMARs, ATACMs etc.) being used for more 'operational' targets. And remaining heavy tubes joining them in the long range PGM delivery category, ceding their longtime role as the high-volume 'fire hose' of the artillery arm?
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9 hours ago, Haiduk said:
We have a shortage of artillery shells, so FPV our only hope
UKR troops repelled company size assault of Russian troops near Novomykhailivka (Maryinka - Vuhledar sector), using mostly FPV atatcks. 12 Russian vehicles were destroyed/damaged/abandoned
UCAV company of 72nd mech.brigade scored 9 vehicles, 2nd mech.battalion of 72bd brigade - 1 and ATGM company of brigade's AT-battalion - 1
A screaming comes across the sky....
Good lord, mech really is toast, isn't it? absent a phase change in ECM
Time to get busy standing up those leg battalions.
...Well, maybe not entirely leg, mobility enhanced with these things and various other nimble hard-to-hit ATVs, plus the aforementioned jetpacks.
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P.S. Cool score on the video, any idea who it's by?
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Hey grogs, for the benefit of refuXeniks (like me), it seems that the excellent mirror site Nitter has been killed by another policy change, perhaps for good this time. If you click on a nitter feed you get a 'certificate expired' error message.
Explanation is here (though I'm not a techie and can't verify the details).
"Nitter currently relies on the mass generation of guest accounts, a weird anonymous form of account that was only supported by old versions of the Twitter app. Creation of them was totally disabled today, so every nitter instance will be dead in under 30 days (when they expire). Scrapers apparently also relied on this, as every public nitter instance was being hammered by scrapers earlier. Instances will probably shut down quite soon unless someone finds another way to create tens of thousands of accounts in an automated fashion for free."
That said, there's another mirror site that still seems to work; you can follow the feeds, but can't get to individual posts (or comments):
(or whatever handle you're looking for)
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5 hours ago, The_Capt said:
That last para pretty much sums it up. I never heard of a single action where we did top down building clearances with conventional troops in Afghanistan (or Iraq for that matter). SOF, sure but those are special circumstances.
Ha, deep in the mists of Forum history, I recall a certain Calgarian (long departed now from these shores) blowing a gasket over CMSF not providing ladders for top down assaults, or allowing squads the organic capability to breach and mousehole walls or buildings anywhere they damn please, enter via windows, etc.
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8 hours ago, poesel said:
DW has a longer article (in German) about the situation in Baschkortostan.
TL;DR: will it topple Russia? - no, but it is a sign.
https://www.dw.com/de/was-es-mit-den-protesten-in-russland-auf-sich-hat/a-68026361
Galeev backgrounder (short thread)
Punchline:
1. This has nothing to do with "Russians protesting against Putin".
2. These are protests in an ethnic Turkic & Muslim region largely motivated by the disregard to local sacred places & ecology
3. And, to a certain degree, by the local nationalist sentiment
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While I'm looking at Galeev:
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On 1/20/2024 at 5:51 AM, Bulletpoint said:
Meanwhile, in America
An oldie but a goodie...
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted