LongLeftFlank
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Posts posted by LongLeftFlank
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2 hours ago, billbindc said:
Vietnam is a net exporter, no?
IEA pulled their flow diagrams to 'replace' them and that project is years behind, so this is 2017 data from LLNL. To get to today, increase C&I use volumes by about 30%.
This also predates the huge solar and wind buildouts of 2019-2021 although these aren't actually contributing huge volumes yet, due to EVN grid curtailments.
Ha ha, no. They might possibly be, if China wasn't sitting on the Spratlys.
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Nice infographic, for those interested:
Interesting that in spite of its stated intent to remain neutral in the conflict (partly in gratitude to Russia for its past support), energy-hungry Vietnam is not a significant importer of Russian oil.
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5 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Why? Because stability is good business. The West, with the US at the centre built the scheme that “won” the Cold War and want that party to keep going because we get very rich off it. The rest of the world makes our stuff for cheap, while also buying our other stuff.
https://www.americanrhetoric.com/MovieSpeeches/moviespeechnetwork4.html
Umm, about Union Carbide and ITT....
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https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194
Some very approximate frontages, based on the current situation:
- Kharkiv-Belgorod frontier (E-W, disregard frontier north to Sumy): 230km
- Oskil-Zherebets rivers (N-S Kupiansk-Kreminna): 180km
- Sieversk salient: 70km
- Bakhmut-Avdiivka: 90km
- Avdiivka-Vuhledar: 50km
- Zaporizhzhne front (Vuhledar-Dnpr E-W): 180km
- Dnpr-Kherson river (E-W, less Kinburn spit): 300km
Total active front: c.1100km
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24 minutes ago, dan/california said:
I suspect this is also Elon engaging in some sort of self dealing to move money from Space X to the rotting remnants of twitter.
Yeah, I was enjoying a beautiful clear night last summer on the Mediterranean coast of Spain, only to see a line of 5 satellites ascending, all in perfect line.
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41 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1761453249180168647.html
Ukraine faces a difficult period as Russia regains military momentum and Ukraine grapples with internal challenges.
Key Points:
- Ukrainian Manpower Shortage: Political and military misalignments have delayed vital mobilization efforts. New troops likely won't be sufficiently trained and ready until late summer.
- Springtime Vulnerability: Russia is exploiting Ukraine's weakened state with multi-front offensives. Although Russian gains have been modest, they are prepared for high casualties and have more forces in reserve.
- External Aid Factors: Ukraine is reliant on external support, which has its own limitations and could be affected by future political events, such as the US elections.
- Worst-Case Scenario Focus: Urges a focus on worst-case scenarios for aid planning. He calls for a sense of urgency similar to that seen in early 2022.
Thanks as always for the digest and the threadreader link, for those of us who don't X.
...The Threadreader ads are just nuts though, supermarket tabloid 'Elvis alien clone' stuff. Or maybe that's just my part of the world.
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4 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Risk…madness. We are talking about direct western military action against Russia. That is an act of war.
33 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:Yeah, no way it was West.
I think this really really shows the disconnect in thinking between Russia and the West.
Putin is already saying this is existential war for Russia, he is already saying his objective is to destroy the West, and his people - whether random Russians or weirdos and traitors and useful idiots everwhere in the world - are already believing it. He is already doing everything in his power to do that too - from propaganda to interfering with elections to financing fascist parties to helping Hamas to working with Iran and China to assassinating people in other countries to attacking food to cause famine in Africa because refugee crisis empower Western Fascist to whatever else I have lost track.
Russia already escalated as high as they dared. If they could do worse, if they could do something more despicable, if they could do something more monstrous, they would have done it years ago.
I remember all these red lines - nuclear war if West gives Ukraine Javelins, nuclear war if West gives Ukraine tanks, nuclear war if West gives Ukraine planes, nuclear West gives Ukraine gets HIMARS, nuclear war if Ukraine attacks Russian warships, nuclear war if Ukraine fires missiles into Russia ... So really I think if West shot down Russian plane they would do nothing like every time before.
At the same time, the Western decision makers think (or behave as if they thought) that Russia is a country and not a mafia, and that they are not actually at (hybrid) war with us, and that they can be reasoned with and that keeping some kind of "civilized behavior" with Russia is something that makes sense. This is of course wrong - Russia only understands strength and considers humanity a weakness to be exploited - being civilized or nice only makes you hurt.
So no way it really was West - if West had balls to engage Russia directly, our current conversation topic on this forum would be "do you think the warlord Ivanov will also take south of Moscow?" and not "it's not good that Ukraine is losing ground and people because West decided to not supply them with enough ammo but what can you do, it could be worse".
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Anyway, one thing I wanted to say: This actually is an existential war for Russia in a way. It is existential for Putin, sure, but as we came to understood during the war and as we discussed a few times, the common (but by no means only) mindset in common Russians is "things are ****, they used to get better and now they don't, but you know what, at least we are a badass empire". They might be even deluding themselves into thinking that things being bad is a voluntary sacrifice for that badass empire. Lot of people are willing to suffer a lot for being part of something they consider greater than themselves.
Being decisively shown that Russia is not in fact a cool badass empire they be proud of even if they don't themselves have indoor toilets might really break their worlds. Whatever comes out of that would not be Russia as we know it anymore. This is not existential war for Russia because they will end up in mass graves or enslaved if they lose (like it is for Ukrainians), but it is existential for the Russian imperial mindset.
I agree. There's zero likelihood that NATO splashed an AWACS in Russian airspace, cuz WW3.
You and I are much of the same mind, it seems as I composed this before I read your post....
The Russians don't necessarily *know* that their manifest destiny and grand strategy is built on a tissue of lies and self-delusion.
1. The Russians (and their overseas amen corner) have always preached that all the major Western weapons systems in AFU use (Patriot, HIMARS, etc.) are crewed by NATO mercenaries and technicians.
2. Same 'reasoning' at root: hohol pig farmers and Eurof**gy cosmopolitans can't possibly be cleverer or tougher than Great Russians. Like most bullies, whose behaviour is rooted in a need to prove their superiority (to suppress insecure feelings that they actually aren't), they deeply need to believe that.
3. By corollary, they also 'know' that once T shuts off the tap and recalls the mercs, 'so-called Ukraine' will collapse like a rotten log, the NATO-backed civil war will end and restore the Greater Russian Union State from Zhitomir to the Dnistr, with only Polish- and Hungarian-controlled rump provinces remaining as a buffer.
...So in short, all the US wingnut mouthing is putting the 'comfort' in 'aid and comfort to the enemy'.
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3 minutes ago, IMHO said:
Seems like you are prone to making swift and uneducated judgements.
Thanks for the clarification, but you might consider thumbing down the ad hominem attacks a bit.
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2 hours ago, IMHO said:
You sure you can a be a reliable and referencable source if you missed these basic things?
@Grigb is one of the best contributors to this thread. Just sayin'.
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VERIFICATION REQUEST. Is it true Russia only has one more A50 AWACS? Or is this yet another Sushko disinfo special?
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2 hours ago, Kinophile said:
Drones coming out of drones.
What we're all REALLY waiting for of course, are the 'spinners'.
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11 minutes ago, keas66 said:
Is anyone here subscribed to the sarcosaurus substack/feed - The daily emails are pretty in-depth on current situation on ground . https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/
Many thanks, those of us who decline to be e-stalked by Xwitter are unfortunately out in the cold at the moment.
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18 hours ago, Haiduk said:
I was thinking long time so far to write a short (?) dictionary of Russian filthy words (Rus. "mat"), which you often can hear in video or read in social media )))
I have some firsthand experience with umm, incoming mat.
New Yorker also did a piece on it in 2003, reprinted below for those interested.
https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?A2=russian-teaching;aa8fa082.03
"In the Soviet period," he says, "the status of the high lexicon was devalued-words such as 'fatherland,' 'motherland,' 'truth.' In the context of Soviet ideology, these words acquired a negative resonance, not only for the general population but also for Party propagandists. In this situation, obscene words began to function as markers of authenticity."...
[Zhirinovsky] responded to my questions about mat with an impassioned speech: "This is our living language! Who has decided that mat is just bad words and deviant vocabulary? They're rejecting the language of the people. Obviously, part of the vocabulary of mat was created in the prisons, but then haven't we driven the entire population through the prisons? This language has become the norm!"
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5 hours ago, sburke said:
We have literally tens of millions and zooo much better if ze brain is right zere in zee drones, no?
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lnteresting attempt, even if likely ineffectual.
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13 hours ago, herr_oberst said:
Yeah... but when the GPU visual graphics 'effects' render a cannon fire hitting given 'reasonable' results, how does that translate from the graphical rendering of [position a, fires at b] translate to (I'm sure greatly simplified)
[firing position a, mass of shell b, muzzle velocity c, shot fall function(b, c, d: distance to target, e: time to target, f: motion of target), g: position of d when shot arrives], determine impact point and effects on d work out? Non-trivial. Who (cpu or gpu) does the math? Does cpu 'trust' gpu, and how do you code for differential gpu capabilities?
That's why I pay BFC to figure it out. They know better than I what the engine can do, and what moving from 'it can do X" to "it can do Y" will cost and the expected revenue stream. I hope that the consumer version will see some trickle down economics for improvements, but the consumer base likely has very different 'min architecture/hardware reqs' than their more 'advanced' clients.<opinion>All in all, its still the one game I go to for entertainment and 'deep thought' gaming. From good scenario builders, shallow thought will get you punished... Graphics are dessert, plans, tactics, and execution are the meal.</opinion> And I realize it as such. Just my $0.02.
Sure, and I come to praise the Brainjar not to bury him!
While I am not, and never have, coded anything more complex than an Excel VBA macro, I am in general agreement with what I think OP @markshot was asserting, to wit:
...that the new generation of AI tools are already making it easier and cheaper for small devs like BFC to layer highly pleasing and 'up to date' looking gaming graphics atop their core proprietary physics and tactical decision engines. So they can stay focused on refining that engine and the player interfaces ('Follow Me' commands, etc.) while 'outsourcing' most of the crowd-pleasing visual effects.
Again, all easier said than done, but our dear sponsors have also got to move with the times, elsewise get bought out and folded into a larger shop that won't allow them full creative control.
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1 hour ago, sburke said:
This thread tends to get way over dramatic too often.
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28 minutes ago, Holien said:
Ahhh the beauty of hindsight...
What a joke....
Like the C̶a̶d̶i̶l̶l̶a̶c̶ Thread overturning in slow motion, down a cliff, on television.
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On 2/12/2024 at 11:10 PM, markshot said:
Folks,
I am not here for a debate.
Oh, oh I'm sorry, this is Abuse....
Ah, don't let these grumpy old cranks put you off!
Exploring possibility space is just fine IMHO, so long as the substantial gaps to meaningful implementation are also appreciated.
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(LinkedIn commentary): If you think OpenAI Sora is a creative toy like DALLE, ... think again. Sora is a data-driven physics engine. It is a simulation of many worlds, real or fantastical. The simulator learns intricate rendering, "intuitive" physics, and long-horizon consistency, all by some denoising and gradient maths.
I won't be surprised if Sora is trained on lots of synthetic data using Unreal Engine 5. It has to be!
Let's breakdown the following video. Prompt: "Photorealistic closeup video of two pirate ships battling each other as they sail inside a cup of coffee."
https://cdn.openai.com/sora/videos/ships-in-coffee.mp4
- The simulator instantiates two exquisite 3D assets: pirate ships with different decorations. Sora has to solve text-to-3D implicitly in its latent space.
- The 3D objects are consistently animated as they sail and avoid each other's paths.
- Fluid dynamics of the coffee, even the foams that form around the ships. Fluid simulation is an entire sub-field of computer graphics, which traditionally requires very complex algorithms and equations.
- Photorealism, almost like rendering with raytracing.
- The simulator takes into account the small size of the cup compared to oceans, and applies tilt-shift photography to give a "minuscule" vibe.
- The semantics of the scene does not exist in the real world, but the engine still implements the correct physical rules that we expect.Next up: add more modalities and conditioning, then we have a full data-driven UE that will replace all the hand-engineered graphics pipelines.
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Yes, there's a fundamental category error here in the utter failure to distinguish Ukrainians, who are overwhelmingly fighting for their nation and elected government, from Iraqis or Afghans who overwhelmingly defer to their local tribal or religious leaders, who in turn decide which flag to salute, or not.
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19 minutes ago, Kinophile said:
So this thread is now called, "How Hot is The American General Election Gonna Get?"...
Just so I'm clear. For myself.
Yes, the smell of hair on fire is getting a little thick in here, innit?
I mean, if the thread regulars want to agonise over the fall of the Republic in the context of Ukraine, maybe look at something more directly relevant than microplaning DJT's latest excretion?
https://www.construction-physics.com/p/what-happened-to-the-us-machine-tool
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31 minutes ago, sburke said:
The seat next to me is open! Oddly folks come over, sit next to me and shortly thereafter move somewhere else. Maybe it is just meant to be so c'mon, sit down.
An' I said, “Litterin'.”
An' they all moved away from me on the bench there, an' the hairy eyeball an' all kinds of mean nasty things.
...Til I said, “*And* creating a nuisance.”
An' they all came back, shook my hand, an' we had a great time on the bench, talkin' about crime, mother stabbin', father rapin', all kinds of groovy things that we was talking about on the bench, an' everything was fine.
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16 hours ago, Kinophile said:
There's something about Syrsky that feels somehow more 'modern'. I'm not concerned (not that I've any right to be and my opinion of ZSU staffing is worth less than zero).
But of the two, I suspect in my bones that Syrsky could pull off transforming the front line from how the Russians want to fight into how the Ukrainians can and should fight. That is, I suspect that he will shift the tactical structure on the Ukrainian side from orienting on Lines (trenches, cities etc) to dominating spaces/volumes, avoiding static fixed points for RUS artillery to pound.
Currently, while RUS has the initiative I think its because the ZSU is fighting in the way that Russia needs it to in order for Russia to be able to get the initiative. The ZSU's current configuration values the same things as the Russians - lines on maps, place names, etc. Geography and overlayed political mapping, islands of resistance joined into a web of linear static priorities.
If the ZSU begins to fight in a different ways, like say around Kiev, valuing different things from the RUS and willing to trade what it values less for what it now values more, then they could achieve operational balance before unbalancing the Ivan.
Part of this idea is that the ZSU could deepen the front line zone, ignoring trenches, never staying put and constantly moving within a much broader battlespace. Flowing instead of standing. Utilizing C4ISR to constantly outflank and corroding the 1,2,3 echelons of Russian front lines all at once. IE simultaneously conduct attack-defence in the same zone, at the same time, where attack is defence and defence is attack, in contrast to the simplistic Russian approach focused on progressive subjugation of a series of points and lines.
Mobility would not be forced into or on the Russians but provided to the Ukrainians within their own "side" of the battle space. Blur the operational contact area between the forces and rapidly corrode tactically.
Zaluzhny can see the value of drones and their danger, within his existing viewpoint of military force. Sysrky, I hope, can see a new paradigm - or at least the need and path to one. I think he will initially focus very heavily on the training funnel, shifting to a smarter, more responsive and intuitive process. This will cost him time and space but provide him with better forces in the medium/long term, forces that can handle and expand a new tactical and operational mindset.
Good comment on the actual war, many thanks, a rarity over the last 10 thread pages.
...I guess only time will tell, but if Shanahan can reinvent football with dense formations, perhaps Syrsky can reinvent tactical warfare using some species of the opposite?
The 49ers Defy Modern Football. It’s Why They’re in the S̶u̶p̶e̶r̶ Taylor Bowl.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
This may have been posted before but a thread search didn't find it. Important points here though by Watling.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024
The Russian military began 2023 with a highly disorganised force in Ukraine comprising approximately 360,000 troops.... By the beginning of 2024, the Russian Operational Group of Forces in the occupied territories comprised 470,000 troops....
Russian forces have reverted above battalion level to the traditional Soviet order of battle of regiments, divisions and combined arms armies, but have been significantly altered below the level of the regiment.
Battalions are organised as line and storm battalions, and tend to operate in company groups which fight in small, dispersed detachments [due to a] shortage of trained officers able to coordinate larger formations, with a significant proportion of Russian junior officers currently being promoted from the ranks....
Units can generally be rotated out of the line once they have taken up to 30% casualties – the point at which they are judged to be ineffective – and are then regenerated.... In this way, the Russians are maintaining a consistent pressure on a number of points....
If Ukraine's partners continue to provide sufficient ammunition and training support to the AFU to enable the blunting of Russian attacks in 2024, then Russia is unlikely to achieve significant gains in 2025.