LongLeftFlank

A pair of ragged claws?

https://russiapost.info/regions/majority ...After reading this list, I once again thanked fate that I was not born in Moscow and still had not lost touch with reality. Because if we take two thirds of the Russian population as the “Russian people,” then the “Russian people” have not lost any of this. Because they had none of it to begin with. The last time they, the people, held dollars in their hands was 1997 – to amuse themselves, nothing more. They never went to theaters and did not notice how the best directors left Russia and left them, the people, with nothing. **** https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-12-11/ukraines-demographic-drain-puts-its-post-war-recovery-at-risk.html There are 6.3 million refugees who, like Soroka, left Ukraine during the war and have not returned, according to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR). More than half are women and a third are minors. According to a UNHCR survey last July, 18% of those displaced abroad wanted to return to Ukraine within the next three months and 62% when the necessary security and stability conditions are in place; the remaining 20% were inclined not to return. When the Russian invasion began, Ukraine had 44 million inhabitants. In 2023, the number stands at 36 million, including the territories occupied by Russia. If the data is limited to the regions of unoccupied Ukraine, the figure drops to 32 million, a 38% decrease from 1991.

There is also the infamous Raccoon Breathalyzer hack.... ***** which is sadly a UL. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/navy-raccoon-breathalyzer/

So Steve, in spite of your best efforts, it seems CM: Space Lobsters of Doom© will -- yet again! -- frontrun military reality by about 2-3 years.

Ha ha, you ninjaed me by like 30 seconds!!!! (PS, it is WAY better in German)

Thanks @Zeleban, I am not trying to 'assign you homework', just curious if you had a source ready to hand.

Can you link to some recent articles or documentation (even if they're in Ukrainian) on the details of civil mobilisation.... as in, how it's supposed to be working, how many people, etc? ...I don't need more gripefests or rumours about scoundrels buying their way out or running overseas. I don't doubt it's a problem but we have no way to scale it without an idea of what the nation is trying to achieve. I totally agree that Ukraine should have had at least 500,000 more men and women enrolled in TD reserve units and trained up in rudimentary skills by last winter.

1. Interesting thread by DavidD SecretSqrl on the Bradley (I'm not an armour grog and DavidD can be hit or miss, but he does seem to have a fair amount of hands on US Army experience with Brads). 2. For what it's worth, comments by a German expert. https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3801146-situation-on-front-lines-in-ukraine-not-hopeless-german-expert.html Nico Lange noted that many forget that 95% of the equipment donated by Ukraine's partners had not been used during the counteroffensive.... Ukrainians continue to bet on exhaustion. "They are no longer trying to hold positions like they did in Bakhmut. Instead, they want to slow down the Russian troops and let them bleed." "Ukraine is probably gathering resources for a new counteroffensive next year," Lange said. One of their starting points could be the bridgehead in Kherson. With the necessary fighter jets, attack helicopters and drones, Ukraine could adequately support the advance of its troops, especially since there are almost no Russian fortifications in this region. I doubt that last remark on fortifications, but I heartily agree that the far left end of the Russian advance is a good place to strike, if only to force them to deplete their mobile forces responding. Not with mech though; mech is pretty much roadbound down here. btw, there's a lot of hand wringing about the Russian air delivered heavy glide bombs hitting the Krynki bridgehead with 'impunity'. While I'd hate to be under these things, I look at that a little more glass half full; the Russians don't have enough artillery so they're forced to hunt an ant invasion using a sledgehammer.

That said, dividing all the above figures by 2 *may* yield a credible estimate for AFU losses since the start of the war. Perun talks a little about this in one of his recent vids. 2. Maybe some NAFO fellas could generate a long festive video of RU vehicles blazing like torches to play in place of those Yule log videos. 3. Short but interesting clip of UA drone strikes on RU emplacements. No gore, but good details. Note covered trenches. A couple months old based on foliage. 4. 14 minute BBC doco on the fate of Russia's 155th Marines. Probably a little dumbed down for this board but well done for lay audiences; core of the tactical analysis is minutes 8 - 10.

Sorry, gotta meme you here, it's my way. Besides, Micronauts!

Interestingly, I think I posted some footage a week or so ago of UA sappers busily (cover your ears, @The_Capt) mining the gaps in this very fence. Looks like it paid off.

So as the Chairman exhorts us to 'seek truth from facts', 'learn from the peasants' and 'conduct rigorous self-criticism', I visited a pro-Russian feed to see what they are showing lately in the way of hohol doom and destruction that has been hidden from we bourgeois dupes and stooges in our echo chamber. Hilarity ensues (for some definition of hilarity). Yes, there's also some destroyed equipment but no context (where, when, how much). 1. "Training of Belarusian military personnel with soldiers of the Wagner Group continues." 2. Wot, behind the rabbit? 3. Dumb alligator tricks 4. OK, some beardos talking and walking is the righteous fist of Allah or sumfink? ***** Zoka got outed and his site was repurposed, but Geroman is still on the job. The footage is not without interest, but hardly supports the claims in the caption (that's true of UKR footage of course at times). Here too. Not sure I've ever seen a UA soldier in a steel pot with no helmet liner though, so not clear these hapless hohols aren't Russian or separs. 5. OK, this does seem to be a UA road column being shot to hell but jump cuts make it hard to tell what's going on. The drone strikes clip is actually more interesting to me: I know it's very much 'anecdata' and this is a built up (rubbled) battlespace, but do the Rooskies lean toward using SPV drones and Lancets in clusters as ersatz mortars, as opposed to the more curated strikes we see posted by the UA? (no firm conclusion reachable here, just something to look for) Anyway, for what it's worth.

RESOLVED: 'Accuracy over mass is going to win this war'. Discuss. (jk, that's like the last 3100 pages) *** Been seeing a fair number of these kills of AD systems over the last month. I know very little about air defence, so not much sense of how badly each of these 'hurts' Ivan. So per Wiki, it looks like the Russian Army has about 350 Buk SAM launchers of all types. No count on Zhitel jammers.

Well evidently somebody thinks moar mech is the key to breaking the deadlock https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/07/ukraine-is-forming-five-new-mechanized-brigades-now-they-need-vehicles/?sh=3bff7d502f70 The Ukrainian army is forming five new mechanized brigades. On paper, the 150th, 151st, 152nd, 153rd and 154th Mechanized Brigades represent a significant force—a five-percent expansion of the Ukrainian ground forces.... The brigades reportedly are drawing their cadres of experienced officers and non-commissioned officers from existing brigades, while filling out their 2,000 or so other billets with new recruits. In practice, the Ukrainians seem to appreciate that brigades lose fighting vehicles fast while in combat, and need access to ample stocks of replacement vehicles.

Avdiivka. I think the vids were posted before but this presentation gives helpful operational context.

Perun from last month has some very relevant discussion of EW, and how it is keeping the ''Drone Apocalypse" at bay for the moment; last 1/3 of the hour, although the rest is also worthwhile as usual.

Welcome, and let me offer you cigars and brandy from the Skeptics lounge. You're definitely not the only one getting WW1 vibes here. Bonus (Canadian clickbait) Somewhere between the 'Belarusian spetsnaz break bricks with head' division and the 'only a lumberjack stirs his coffee with his thumb' division.

Good thread by Perpetua noting that not all tech on this new battlefield paradigm needs to be hi-tech. Another interesting minithread here. https://nitter.net/AndrewPerpetua/status/1734387176492716074#m P.S. Is it just me, or has Elon has effed around with the Twitter yet again, to inhibit embedding of tweet images in other media?

https://www.axios.com/2023/12/05/humanoid-robot-factory-agility-bipedal-amazon If not slaughterbots just yet, at least a source of quick and dirty mine tramplers and ammo bearers? ...Of course, since these startups need funding all their core IC is already out during the vapourware stage, which means China Inc. can and will beat them to 'market' with crappy but functional knockoffs. Whatever happens we have got / the Maxim gun / and they have (Not!)

It doesn't help much, sadly, since others just keep quoting and arguing with him. Look, there are tough questions to discuss here around actions Ukraine may need to make urgently if it is to stay in this war, much less 'win'. And there's a lot of room for differences of view on those. But I for one am not about to waste time chasing down Carlson/tankie talking points at the bidding of some rando who argues at the level of a bright 17 year old off his meds. He brings less than nothing to this conversation.

If I choose, I can get the tankie view over on NakedCapitalism, which is basically the same rubbish you're spouting here. You're done.

OK, the longer you guys try to engage @kevinkin replacement and his Gish Gallop (look it up) blasts of overconfident yet entirely unsupported broad projectile vomits of 'alternative facts' the more unreadable this thread becomes. If he really wants to be our good faith house contrarian, he needs to post credible third party information, then give his take, one or two points at a time and allow time for reubuttal. Otherwise, this is just garden variety trolling. ...This is what happens when nobody posts information and just bloviates and emotes.

Anyone else here think that UA should push another couple battalions across the Dnpro in a different spot, to keep stressing these overextended RU scratch forces and their inexperienced commands by forcing them to move around? The Krynki bridgehead, which is now evidently 'contained' (all those covered entrenchments on drier ground across the highway), now seems to have served its military purpose and can be evacuated. Whack a mole on the lower Dnpr....

As I continue to pore over frontline maps, I find myself looking not for 'defensible positions' like villes and tree lines, but for linear obstacles like this canal. With a nice deep, flat, open killing zone in front of it that Ukraine should be sowing like crazy with mines, plus RF sensors to triangulate and target their tactical drone controllers. Invite 'em in, then kill em by the bushel. They can't go forward and won't be allowed back.

Ha ha mate, at this point it is not at all clear to me that ANY of: a. tanks/IFVs/mech b. aircraft c. artillery (other than PGMs) d. infantry (other than sappers) e. field fortifications f. tactical terrain (other than water and bogs) ...are a thing going forward, at least in terms of leveraging them to deliver meaningful results. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-12-2023