LongLeftFlank

Trading ground for blood... temporarily on the south face of Avdiivka salient? Euromaidan often reports through blue and gold tinted glasses, so season to taste. https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/27/frontline-report-ukrainian-forces-tactically-withdraw-set-trap-for-advancing-russians/ There are still small forests full of Ukrainians in the north, vineyards turned into extensive trench networks, the “Tsarska Okhota” restaurant and fortifications around it, the hamlet in between, and the former air defense base that surround the vulnerable Russian bridgehead. The situation around the “Tsarska Okhota” restaurant was quite simple – Russians conducted head-on assaults on Ukrainian fortifications with remotely-controlled machine guns and were destroyed by them. Sentry guns.... check. Once Russian forces started entering the industrial zone, they realized that there are virtually no shelters left to hide and establish a permanent presence because they had destroyed it with artillery. Moreover, the Ukrainian special force hunted down the Russian artillery in the region... leaving the Russian vanguard with little fire support. Topo https://nitter.net/Pouletvolant3/status/1728698017497100555#m

The latest Perun goes into possible motives, well worth the time (as usual). (I'm not as comely as @Harmon Rabb, being a five thousand year old animated sorceror with no flesh on my forearms, but I also listen to Perun while working out)

Well, assuming new forms of lethal air- and ground-mobile unmanned weapons are coming into play, along with AP mines, I can see these attacks becoming an order of magnitude more bloody for the mobiks. Below, the 'dancing floor of war'; open fields and then housing tracts (dachas) providing little hard cover.

DavidD's sources can sometimes be suss, but his views here seem on point: Many people are trying to link a avdiivka with the battle of Bakhmut. There are some differences. In the lead up the Russians had far more artillery then they do now The Russians started off with far better troops (lots of VDV) When the VDV was exhausted the Russians turned to wagner. Wagner had nearly everything they needed for the assault Russian airforce was able to fly over the city due to nearly exhausted air defense At the time its estimated that russia had about 10 million rounds of all types on hand Ukraine never fully reinforced Bakhmut and allowed for a fighting rear action to leave the city Now today… Russia does not have a clear advantage in the number or type of artillery. The Russians are now using more mobilized reserve forces and TD brigades. To this point only a few SPF (SF) troops, and the 13th assault battalion (DPR) have been used with no verified VDV or other high quality troops being seen. On some assaults PT-76s and other out of date vehicles have been seen on the attack. Due to more air defense the Russian airforce has taken high losses around AVD. Russia is having to bring in north Korean rounds to make up for Russian stockpiles being exhausted. The NK rounds are known for being a danger to the crews using them now. Ukraine has moved into the area 12 brigade sized units to defend the city Thread: https://nitter.net/secretsqrl123/status/1728615103182897188#m Analysis by Tatarigami's group (AKHZ is the coke plant) Thread: https://nitter.net/Tatarigami_UA/status/1728171185790443845#m

Crash took place on the US side; first reports were erroneous. It seems a lumber store owner and his wife were casino hopping before heading up to a KISS show in Toronto, and either their $300k Bentley went haywire, or the driver did. Car went airborne and hit a security barrier before they could do a Thelma & Louise into the gorge. American Dream, up in smoke. Enjoy it while you got it. RIP. Black Friday is global now.

Well deserved, after their blatant attempted terror attack. Build that Northern Wall nice and high, Ramaswarmy.

Sad!© And hey, while I wait for @The_Capt to come stomp on me again, may as well go all-in on Declinism.

Prophecy!!!!! Thread: https://nitter.net/PStyle0ne1/status/1728646861114712287#m

Matt Stoller is a bit of a one-note trumpet on monopolies and merger mania (though it's a very real problem), but interesting points here. https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/why-america-is-out-of-ammunition Wall Street and private equity firms prioritize cash out first, and that means a once functioning and nimble industrial base now produces more grift than anything else.... today government cash goes increasingly to stock buybacks rather than actual armaments. The government can’t actually solicit bids from multiple players for most major weapons systems, because there’s just one or two possible bidders. So that means there’s little incentive for firms to expand output, even if there’s more spending. Why not just raise price? the DOD is almost totally blind to the corporate owners of contractors and subcontractors, which might be one reason that, say, Chinese alloys are being discovered in sensitive weapons systems like the state of the art F-35. https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2023/03/01/the-last-supper-how-a-1993-pentagon-dinner-reshaped-the-defense-industry Good NPR piece from early 2023, recounting the history of how America got here; it all seemed to make sense at the time.

1. Unconfirmed, but 2. Also unconfirmed, but i think the Wise Men here called it right: it isn't just airborne drones that are going to reinvent tactical warfare. Additional discussion, videos and links here. More than a little on the rah rah side regarding the tech, but we will see soon whether this is vapourtech or making an impact. 3. War profiteering? 4. Short tactical vignette: brew-up and bail-out

Get your own cheap Shaheds and start targeting fixed infra in Russian territory. See how they like freezing in the dark in Kursk. Unfortunately, our capitalists also appear to have sold off the rope making machines.

Tooze on the war economies. For interest, although I think he's lowballing the burden on Russia. https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-250-the-precarious-stabilization Even as it ramps up its war effort, Russia is devoting just over 6 percent of GDP to military spending. This is a serious effort, but far from overwhelming. Even under more serious sanctions in 2023 the Russian economy will have no difficulty paying for the imports it needs and no shortage of suppliers. [But] the fact that Kyiv is not rocked by surging inflation or a collapsing currency, reflects a remarkable achievement in stabilizing Ukraine’s macroeconomy.... GDP has stabilized at 30 percent below its prewar level. 'secondary income' = foreign financing Refugees P.S. If you want an actual 'neo-nazi' take on the war, check out the post comments, which I will *not* link here (and you shouldn't either).

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/marines-test-fire-robot-dog-armed-with-rocket-launcher Note this video doesn't actually show the 'goat' walking around with, aiming or firing a LAWS strapped to it. Note! the underlying quadrupedal robot is a Chinese-made Unitree Go1, which is readily available for purchase online, including through Amazon. Unitree's website offers the baseline Go1 Air for $2,700 and the Go1 Pro, which it says has more capable sensors that it uses for general movement and object recognition, for $3,500. So here yet again, we see that while the West can innovate, it's the Chinese who scale.

Red team anecdata "Consolidated companies".

The prior discussion was about censorship of unpleasant or triggering or wev views in the West, which some folks here seemed to think was a good idea so long as it aligned with their own views. ...But if i misrepresented your own views on the subject, I apologise. Anyhoo, back to the war.

It Ain’t What You Don’t Know That Gets You Into Trouble. It’s What You Know for Sure That Just Ain’t So. (misattributed to Twain) And no, this isn't advocating antivaxx. ...But the moment you or any other right thinker gets put in charge of defining The Truth and suppressing Falsehood, it's only a matter of time before you start legislating your own prejudices and falsehoods from the bench as well. Nobody is wise enough to know the boundary. That's why we Westerners try to leave as much as possible up to individual conscience and choice, in spite of the many inefficiencies and risks that inhere in that.

Quod custodiet ipsos custodes?

I don't know the first thing about any of that, so I'm just going to do my LLF thing and good naturedly meme you.

Sorry, 'solving the problem of information security' as in imposing censorship? The Committee for Public Safety? The House Un-American Activities Committee? Look, Russia does what it can, no doubt (and mainly without effect), but the troubles of the West are overwhelmingly of our own making, and not within Putin's or Xi's control. P.S. And not to drag this thread back into the pointless swamp of politics, but IMHO, the A Number One on the list of 'troubles of the West overwhelmingly of our own making' is that it is only China that is able to do sh*t like this today: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/11/23/solar-module-prices-may-reach-0-10-w-by-end-2024/ Last project I contracted out, it was USD 26 cents, and that was record beating low! And that after huge plant fires and a polysilicon shortage. Say what you like about China guys, and I've been a China cynic for years. But that is pure Godzilla-sized scale economy in action.... Arsenal of Democracy level mojo, without the Democracy part. Now just take out solar modules and put in 'cheap FPV drones'. Then see if you don't feel an uncomfortable feeling in your guts.

But in this grim new 1917 paradigm of static warfare, isn't that mobik simply a 'useless eater' until he becomes a drone target, once the Ukrainians stop trying to take his hole? ...what I was thinking about earlier was the likely next wave of micro-antipersonnel weapons -- part mine, part drone, part robot dog, part sentry gun, part Furby, part whatever -- that make those meat assaults dead letters before they even finish climbing out of their holes.

Well sure, so long as there are prosperous nations willing to take in Ukrainian exiles as metics, then a lot of them will make that choice. I suppose that's part of what Putin is counting on, although I have no idea who is going to settle the empty lands: Chechens maybe? If not, they need to fight and bleed for their homeland, or else accept that they and their compatriots will once more become thralls of the Muscovites. BTW, Western nations looking for a source of blonde white immigrants (as an alternative to, umm, immigrants who don't look like that) is a standard tankie meme, a cynical variant on 'fighting to the last Ukrainian'. There is some precedent though. The French did quite well out of the revolutions of the mid-19th century, bringing in waves of Austro-Hungarian and Italian revolutionaries who rapidly Gallicised. The anticommunist Polish exiles of WW2 rapidly became British, etc.

Very important article, do not miss it.

I am not going to overreact to our good friend @Zeleban's anecdata at the moment, although I do sympathise with the pressure he and the Ukrainian nation is under while we sit in peace and comfort. Perhaps other Ukrainian threaders might chime in here? That said, there are disturbing signs that the war is likely to become much more deadly for Ukrainian infantry in the field this winter, absent effective counters to the growing Russian drone threat. For example.... And please, can we take a pass on the kneejerk 'surebutthemobikshaveitfarworse' whataboutism. Until enough mobiks actually quit or mutiny over the 'far worse', it's cold comfort to the Ukrainian guys. ....Anyhow, it seems impossible that the Ukrainian nation can keep letting its already weary volunteer force continue doing the bleeding while able-bodied young men go about their peacetime business, or live as refugees abroad. If that is indeed what is happening, which I'm not totally sure of tbh. (more anecdata though: I recently I had a Linkedin friend trying to find a 30 year old Ukrainian engineer a job in Canada and I was tempted to ask why he wasn't at home serving his country?)

If we built this large wooden badger.... https://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?t=48441 'General Maus' is quite an old problem, alongside 'General Mud' and 'General Winter.'

Well of course, conservative capitalists like their plumbers and other 'buttcrack' service providers and offshore labour to be hard working, goal-oriented, cheerful, not-too-expensive and if possible, white. Them O'rentals got too dam' uppity....