LongLeftFlank

You canny Gaelic person, you have cracked our secret code! Being 'sorry' is the rest of what it is to be a Canadian. There is nothing more, other than Keiths and Don Cherry.

Mainly not being American, while not being a jerk about that fact.

Anything is possible, I suppose, including 11D Chessmaster doubling down on this stupid on stilts..... W: Basically the largest mobilisation is in Kursk, Belgorod and Voronezh oblast, the bordering territories.... From Moscow, 50 people went. Yet just from the small Rossish, 300 people went, in one day.... Because Moscow will immediately start a strike, on Red Square.... The order by Voronezh oblast governor was signed, no one can leave. Something terrible is happening. And only border territories are involved.... But we, we are not needed by anyone. And we are being sacrificed. Hmm, perhaps ATACMS won't be needed, railwaymen in these 'bordering territories' could provide all the disruption required. Perhaps Ukraine could end up increasing in size by 20%? Would the above Oblasts, plus Kuban make adequate reparations? (And YES, you need to take the people).

Wow. This is so.... whiny. Stalin or Hitler, hell even Mussolini, would have b**ch slapped this yutz. 'Razor' Tojo would simply have lopped off his head without comment. As for Timurlane or Batu Khan.... bring me the boiling oil. But the cheap stuff. (Too. Many. Memes. Must. Resist.) Not with a bang, but with a whimper?

Yes, that drill will certainly ensure they break Marshal Grouchy's cavalry, or the levies of the Khedive. ...assuming that they are down to issuing 18th century muskets by then.

https://jamestown.org/program/lessons-of-the-ukraine-war-thus-far/ Russia has fired more than 3,800 missiles against Ukraine ... in large part, by so-called “theater of operations” missiles—mid-range missiles that can strike targets thousands of kilometers away (e.g., Kalibr and X-101). But such a quantity of missiles, which is much more than the United States has launched in total in the past 40 years, did not allow Russian forces to change warfighting dynamics in a favorable way—by failing to paralyze railways logistics, interdict Western military supply flow to Ukraine or gain air superiority. The Ukrainian experience has made clear that precision missiles of lesser range combined with accurate intelligence can make a world of difference on the battlefield. Primarily, this concerns the employment of Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) projectiles guided by GPS with an 85-kilometer range. The US has provided Ukraine with at least 2,100 projectiles of this type.... Basically, successful mass employment of GMLRS by Ukraine has proven the validity of the US Army’s AirLand Battle doctrine of the 1980s.

It's buried a dozen pages back now, but I posted some stuff and maps about how limited the approaches are to Kreminna, and how it might be better to go around the north (south is the Sivierski Donets). But obviously, the guys on the ground might prove me entirely wrong! P.S. If Steve or @BFCElvis gives me a holiday for the (buried link) above, it will be worth it. I regret nothing. Make it loud! And for our map guru @Grigb , this one's for you!

I continue to think that the next Ukrainian master stroke will be a 72 hour air and drone campaign that systematically destroys these Russian guns, forcing the survivors into mainly ineffective 'shoot and scoot' mode. While the RUAF flails helplessly, flying from distant bases.

Another good quick summary assessment, in translation (from Czech) from ChrisO. @The_Capt, I think you've said some of the same.

Happiness is a warm gun.

Great piece. 'Icarus reenactments' is a keeper. And using the mobiks to cull potential pool of malcontents is a GoT worthy move, also used by Franco to ship off his hardcore Fashie wingnuts to expend their life energies on the Volkhov front. Prigozhin looks more like a Yezhov to me though, a thoroughly unlikeable fall guy (and an amateur, to boot) to be purged in turn once he has purged the others on behalf of the Dark Lord.

Yes! which is why CM scenario designers should be able to: a. assign default 'execute until interrupted' AI plans to player side units, or b. allow some player side units to be not under human control! [/wishlist] (do you now regret stopping me posting harmless memes?)

It's not contempt, not at all, sorry if it comes off that way. I should probably have been an academic too. (And here I am spending my nonwork time on bloody wargaming boards for 25+ years, so I don't mind intellectual rabbit holes or overthought puzzles). ....It's just a realisation as I go through life that (respecting Steve's admonition, I shall not post the relevant Dilbert cartoon) 'intelligence has far less practical application than you'd think.'

Hot take: Less Falaise, more Korsun! (i.e. don't let these combat veterans escape the trap and become cadres to train the mobiks).

Apologies if he's a friend of yours, but this kind of stuff, however intelligent and erudite, is why I avoid 'political science' (and 'social sciences' in general). And that's in spite of IR being my undergrad major (actually it was sports, with a minor in drinking). 1. 'integrate' various (ideologically constructed) interpretations of historical events, with data, preferably drawing connections nobody has thought of before. Novelty value is important. 2. 'synthesize' -- and publish and promote! -- an explanatory/predictive framework that, well, explains and predicts. Until it doesn't. 3. To me, it all amounts to Eisenhower's famous dictum: plans are worthless, planning is everything. ....Which is to say that any 'framework' or thesis will almost surely be pants, because reasons (confounding variables) which only become crystal clear in hindsight. But by doing the exercise, you may know which levers to pull first and hardest, as you scramble to adapt to emerging reality. 4. However, in practice academics and think-tankers don't really get to pull those levers. Even when they do get to sit at the grown-ups' table (McNamara, Kissinger, Rumsfeld) they merely clamour for the occasional attention of those who do. And, on the consultant pattern, they are usually asked to provide a retroactive paper trail for what the Decider's gut feeling and experience is already telling them to do. There is no tabula rasa. One cynical old guy's opinion. YMMV. And yes, I did read it through closely, and was going to quote a few bits, but realised the entire approach was... well, what I just wrote above.

Wikimapia is also a very interesting resource, as users can annotate (Google) maps with such things as town boundaries, factories and topographical features, sometimes even military features. Notice that the Kherebets and Krasna rivers (N-S) are fed by E-W ravines (Yars....) which cut up what looks like deceptively open country. http://wikimapia.org/m/#lat=49.1497024&lon=38.056958&z=11&l=1&m=b Note also the Kreminski-Kaptazhi Hydrological Reserve (wetlands, pretty nasty this time of year), shielding the NW approach to Kreminna. To the NE there is a 7012ha regrowth zone from a 1996 wildfire. So tbh Kreminna looks a lot more like another 'flank and surround' op than a straight punch. Takeaway: 1. Especially with rasputitsa approaching, cross country maneuver is not as easy as it may look on the Google maps. Ergo UA advances will likely be roadbound, with their advances depending heavily on the state of RA disarray. 2. Key difference being that the Ukes have the infantry to flank and neutralise blocking positions, especially hasty and undermanned ones lacking artillery support.

Noted. And thanks, I think. https://kyivindependent.com/national/why-is-russia-so-vulnerable-to-himars-in-ukraine Russian supply lines depend on railway communications, which inevitably keeps them bound to railway stations and junctions. Russian military bloggers have admitted that switching to a more flexible system would take months or even years, which is not a viable solution during the ongoing war.

Wow, this thread certainly went to hell quickly (sorry to single you out)!

WarMonitor's topo from yesterday. So interesting (and telling) that the RU isn't showing any ability to organise defences in this sector beyond holing up in a few towns. You'd think a hedgehog approach would make some kind of sense for them, delay and attrite while they get their act together. But artillery to bracket the gaps is essential to making that work, and that's not much in evidence here (except on the Ukrainian side). It really looks like Russia has staked everything -- and concentrated all its remaining forces -- on holding the 'land bridge' (they know Kherson is going to fall eventually), angling for a cease fire using everything from nukes to kidnapped children as bargaining chips, and brazening out a 'win' that way. See, I have gathered in the land of Novorossiya! ****** For avoidance of doubt, I'm not saying this is going to WORK. But reducing this province in a winter offensive is going to be a new challenge for Ukraine and its allies. Dropping the Kerch bridge and blowing the Donetsk rail / roadway lines and starving them out isn't going to be enough, I think.

I skimmed over all the pages of German bashing/remonstration, but here, let me take a gratuitous shot at the Mother Country.

War of Independence, indeed. My go-to map guy (other than @Grigb) HeliosRunner has taken personal leave for the duration, so I am rooting around for decent maps (non Google). Pfarrer uses topos, but he also covers them with textboxes and little explosion doodads and Giant Blue Arrows of Doom. Anyway, will keep looking. This snip was interesting.... so clearly the Zherebets above Zarichne will NOT make a viable RU defensive line, even temporarily.

I find MacKay's constant use of non-English native speaker propaganda words like 'rashist invaders' to be an annoying affectation. Is would be more amusing if fake Scotsman guy spoke mock pidgin Russiaglish, like 'Boris Alotovkrap' who used to troll (the other trolls) on ZH. Death to moose and squirrel....

Another propaganda bullseye.... Bonus

From 'Map Sketcher'. Note the soft ground anchoring the left and the woodlands on the right. EDIT: Per the below, it looks like the UA has broken through in force further east, directly threatening Kreminna, so this is now just a face of a larger cauldron. ...Posting as a useful reminder of the major N-S arteries in Luhansk.