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Fernando

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  1. Like
    Fernando reacted to panzermartin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Back on this, I'm reading some info that probably is an intercepted with Buk Russian missile debris that hit the castle. 
    Makes sense, as the damage doesn't look like from a direct hit and mainly the roof is burning. Also makes sense as it really didn't make sense for Russians to waste a missile on it. 
     
  2. Like
    Fernando reacted to FancyCat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  3. Like
    Fernando reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Reportedly Ukrianian forces became to use almost noiseless night FPV drones. Here is UKR drone slowly follows for two Russians and despite the range is no more 15-20 m and this is a night, Russians don't hear it.
     
  4. Like
    Fernando reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russian TG and blogger Rybar tell about night ATACAMS strike on AD site on Tarkhankut cape in Crimea. About results initially was claimed blurred "casualties managed to avoid"

    But later information has appeared about three S-300 AND one S-400 launchers destroyed in this strike as well as 11 servicemen killed and 4 wounded, when they tried to intercept incoming missiles. Maybe sat images will appear soon. 

  5. Like
    Fernando reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Summary of UKR strikes on Russian objects for 27th of April:
    27th of April - Russian military airfield Kushchovskaya, Krasnodar region was hit by the drone(s) storage with UMPK kits, converting dumb FABs to gliding bombs was destroyed
    In the same day two refineries were hit in Krasnodar region too - Il'skiy refinery (6,6 mln tons year output) and the refinery in Slavyansk-on-Kuban' (3.9 mln tons). On both enetrprises fractional columns were hit. Both reportedly limited own work.
     
     
    A fire on 719th artillery ammunition storage base near Tikhoretsk town, also Krasnodar region was marked by FIRMS on 27th of April, but unknown what caused it - drone attack or something else
    Belgorod oblast - GUR in cooperation with 15th artillery recon brigade damaged antenna of Russian low-altitude 48Ya6-K1 "Podlyot" radar and diesel genarator for i, using Warmate 3.0 drones 
     
  6. Like
    Fernando reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Two Ukrainian servicemen 23 and 36 years old died in stabbing attack in Germany. Both have been underwenting rehabilitation course there after wounding. The murderer - 57 years old Russian was detained.
    Germany still a country with most large pro-Russian community, consisting of migrants of several waves - from late Soviet Union to modern Russia. There are many conflicts between them and Ukrainain refugees. Russian community regularly conducts actions in support of Russian agression, demonstratively celebrating Russian  holidays. It's weird, when citizens lives in the country, enjoy all benefits, but hate it and wish to see Russian tanks here.   

  7. Like
    Fernando reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    your attempt to play the both-siderism game is pathetic and shows an incredible amount of ignorance, both in historic and in current events.  What Gingerich did was completely unprecedented.  What McConnell did was completely unprecedented.  And Trump is off the charts for breaking both norms and laws.  ANd where on the left are the insane ones that are wielding power?   Where's the dem Matt Gaetz?  MTGreene?  American democracy is on the brink and it is due to one side and one side only.  Guess what --  Biden won't attempt to throw the country into a civil war to unlawfully try to cling to power.  Trump's been doing that for last 4 years, including a full on mob-coup attempt that left people dead.  So just WTF are you even talking about?  Clearly you've been watching Hannity or some other bull**** monger and now you are parroting their bulls--t.
    So stop watching Fox & newsmax.  It makes you look like a damn fool.
    Oh, and please respond by telling me how it's the dems fault the GOP held up UKR aid for 3 months.  Dems aint the ones on Putin's payroll.  
     
  8. Like
    Fernando reacted to poesel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Does drone supremacy (tm) solve the minefield problem? Or in other words: if you absolutely swamp one sector in drones and suppress every movement in a 10km(?) radius - is that enough to make breaching a minefield a possibility (under the assumption that you have half decent AA, too)?
  9. Like
    Fernando reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Mixed feelings. Congress version is stronger than Senate one (ATACAMS + Russian actives). But... How much thousands lives have gone, what economical damage was done, how much our lands were occupied until both political forces have been conducting own dirty pre-election games during these five-six months. All this could have been avoided if Senate agreed to continue lend-lease law. 
  10. Like
    Fernando reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Today was claimed Ukrainian AD first time shot down two Kh-22 supersonic cruise missiles. But as became knowingly one of these missiles turned out newest Kh-32 - deep upgrade of Kh-22 with reduced warhead, extended fuel tanks and newest homing and EW protection equipment. Kh-32 can be carried by upgraded Tu-22M3M bomber. In present time probably only one such bomber exists, upgraded in 2018 and which became operational in 2020. In 2019 several Tu-22M3 were moved from storage to Kazan' aviation plant for modernization into Tu-22M3M version, but it's unknown either works were finished or not. In more recent times Russia palnned to upgrade 30 bombers to M3M version up to 2020, but long time of works over Kh-32 foiled these plans. It was adopted only in 2016.
    On the photo - fragments of shot down Kh-32 missile, issued today by General Staff
    https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/ukrayinska-protypovitryana-oborona-zbyla-raketu-h-32-yaku-vyrobyly-u-2023-rotsi/
     

  11. Like
    Fernando reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Chief of GUR Kyrylo Budanov told in own comment to BBC Ukraine, that AD and GUR have been waiting Russian Tu-22M during a week in the ambush. The bomber was shot down on the range 308 km.
    Budanov told some thing was used, deeply upgraded by Ukrainian enginners. Some OSINTers on the GUR video recognized interiror of S-200, but with complete changed equipment.
    If true, looks like we could extend the range of missiles much more than 180-240 km of Soviet S-200V/M variants
    PS. Ukraine hadn't latest S-200D system with range 300 km. USSR had a time to produce and deploy only several complexes of this type in the late 80th, and they were only in Russia and were withdrawn from service in the mid of 90th. 
    Ukraine had S-200V with 180 km range and S-200M with 240 km range (255 km on AWACS planes). They were withdrawn from service in 2011-2013


    https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3g58qn2jvgo?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR2AfBzV1Eh_3H9H3O2ycqZbVOnB3WvjlLJhYLm5Fh4_3lVpdQphJ-pBTRU_aem_AdlSS5xReobUX09lrT-tHx8agDHkU2b3y0ncsvUX982bv2sWMivU_F_W5V7t4OaV4MVejUFjlmfwVQc283wuhDYP
     
  12. Like
    Fernando reacted to Anthony P. in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's a matter of perspective. 1.4 billion Indians reverting to electoral autocracy does mean more seen to the number of people (negatively) affected by democratic backsliding. But seen from the perspective of politicial science and democracy, that's "just" 1 state which has shifted towards autocracy. It's the state that's changed, not its citizens. You can view it like road safety almost: if a car with 4-5 occupants crash, that affects more people than if a car with just a driver crashes, but the focus is (and can only be) on the entities containing said people, i.e. the cars.
    It's also a relevant from the democratisation aspect. Democratisation spreads to neighbouring states according to many, regardless of size.
  13. Like
    Fernando reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Battle for Novomykhailivka (Vuhledar direction) remains in the shadow of Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar, but here soldiers of 79th air-assault brigade and other units already destroyed and disabled 300 enemy vehicles
     
  14. Like
    Fernando reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It is potentially worse than that.  This sort of dysfunction does nothing but feed anti-democracy sentiment.  Democracies die due to abandonment, history demonstrates this quite well.  If the system is seen as "unworkable" democracies often choose suicide.  This is the threat to the US and global stability.  Trump and Greene are symptoms of something far deeper and dangerous....apathy that leads to despair.
  15. Like
    Fernando reacted to Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Some "homefront" news. Maybe we have heard of the recent fires at the American and British 155mm munitions factories?
    Might be just a coincidence, but...
    https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/generalbundesanwalt-ermittelt-zwei-mutmassliche-russische-saboteure-in-bayern-verhaftet-a-0115bebd-195a-41fb-83be-da8d642045cd
    In Germany, two Russo-Germans have been arrested for espionage and sabotage. They are accused of taking pictures of American and German military installations in Bavaria (one of which is a training facility for Ukrainians on Abrams tanks) and planning to use explosives to disrupt military support transports en route to Ukraine. 
    Both of them were in contact with the FSB and one of them was member of a Russian militia unit which operated in Donetzk / Donbas 2014 to 2017. The unit is considered a terrorist group in Germany, so that Russo-German is also accused of membership in a terrorist organisation.
     
     
  16. Like
    Fernando reacted to cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  17. Like
    Fernando reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @The_Capt take it up with chrisl. I already halved the size of his 22kg drone and you're quibbling with *me*?
    Also, those cute little whirrwhirrs you keep referring to are *extremely* handy at the tactical edge as mobile mines and for battlefield assassination, but I believe (because physics) they lack the payload, range, and endurance to be much use as part of a fire plan supporting go-forward combined arms maneauvre.
  18. Like
    Fernando reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yeah, weird, right? Now, why would I do that? Oh, right, because Steve seems to think that micro drones are a useful proxy for large drones that can carry a reasonable HE payload.
    Small things pack small. Micro drones and small arms ammo are examples of this.
    Heavy things pack heavy. Artillery ammunition is the canonical example of this.
    Bulky things pack bulky. Load carrying drones are an example of this.
    Load carrying drones are a lot lighter than artillery ammunition, but they are also bulkier. Ignoring that doesnt make the arguments in favour of drones more compelling.
  19. Like
    Fernando reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Elements of 59th mot.inf brigade,  109th and 111th TD brigades pushed Russians back from NW part of Pervomaiske village, taking back a school almost in the center of the village. Russian troops seized almost all it several days ago, advancing to Karlivla. This is southern flank of Avdiivka sector
      
     
  20. Like
    Fernando reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Next Russian attempt to enter to Chasiv Yar from Ivanivske. Column is destroyed. Video of 225th separate assault battalion
    Su-25 over Chasiv Yar. Initially there was information this is Russian jets, but many told this is Ukrainian. Still unknown, so just "Su-25 over Chasiv Yar"
    Rare episode of Ukrainian aviation uses gliding bombs. Russian position in Ivanivske got GBU-39
     
  21. Like
    Fernando reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    But here and good news. After despearted interview of UKR Foreign Affairs minister about "Patriots", something moved in Eurpore
     
  22. Like
    Fernando reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russians today's morning conducted next strike on Ukrainian power infrastructure and natural gas storages complex near Stryi city in L'viv oblast (Kinzhals were launched there)
    As result of attacks Kharkiv again has a lack of electricity, several substations hit in Odesa, L'viv, Zaporizhzhia, Khasrkiv oblasts. Alas, thermal power plant in Trypillia, Kyiv oblast  - destroyed. 
    Statsistic of today's attack:
    20 Kh-101 cruise missiles - 17 intercepted
    6 Kinzhals - no interceptions (at least 4 on L'viv oblast)
    12 S-300 - no interceptions (all on Kharkiv oblast and Kharkiv city)
    4 Kh-59 - 2 intercepted (all on Zaporizhzia oblast)
    40 Shakheds - 37 intrcepted
    Unkile 2022-2023 power infrastructure strike campaign, when Russians mostly attacked large substations and transformer sites on territories of power plants - direct strikes on generation objects where relatively rare, that now they concentrated on destroying exactly of generation capabilities and alas have success in this. Mainly using S-300, Kinzhals and Iskander-M missiles, which unreachable for our AD
    Result of Russian attack in Trypillia - burning thermal power plant, which mainly generated the energy for southern part of Kyiv oblast and part of Cherkasy amd Zhytomyr oblasts. Reportedly Kh-101 strike, but other sources say that were Shakheds. By the way this thing hit and set on fire the turbines.
    Meanwhile US officials: UKR strikes on Russian refineries may affect global energy situation. Ukraine should concentarte on military targets.
    Russian energy infrastructure is a civilain target...
    And wow - Republican senator asks her why UKR shouldn't strike on Russian infrastructure if Russia strikes on Ukrainian, but she continues own bla-bla-bla about "Ukraine claimed own high democracy standards and we concerning about strike on civilian infrastructure"
    Not surprising
    Dr. Wallander was President & CEO of U.S. Russia Foundation which promotes US investments in Russia.

     
    Just some craziness from MAGA:
    Ukraine wages a war against Christianity
     
  23. Like
    Fernando reacted to Maciej Zwolinski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Kofman in his latest podcast which is focused on drones proposed a reason, why it is significantly more difficult to use drones in support of a go forward maneouvre. He says that Russian ECM is effective and droning Russian defensive positions requires operating within the umbrella of ECM emitters emplaced in the RUS  trenches, where drones will work significantly worse. He says that the drones really can shine when engaging units which are on the offensive and have left the ECM cover.
    Kofman in general praises Russian ECM and for example, he says that GPS guided munitions have been generally degraded. Excaliburs are left unused in some units, and Ukrainians are asking for GMLRS with DPICM warheads which may still do damage despite the missile being spoofed by ECM and going off course.
  24. Like
    Fernando reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Defensively; yes it is. Absolutely.
    Offensively; it seems to be a dead end street
  25. Like
    Fernando reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You do realise we're arguing the same side here?
    A lot of traditional systems seem broken (or wounded, or at least a bit lame due to a gammy knee) right now; navy, fast air, attack aviation, infantry, armour, engineers, logistics, and yes artillery. That's due to a bunch of things; prolific atgms, prolific pgms, lagging mil industrial capability and production, prolific isr, and yes drones.
    The way through this dark wood isn't going to be ditching everything and betting the farm on the whirrwhirr.
    We *know* that artillery is an important part of the combined arms team. We *know* that artillery is crucial to enabling go-forward offensive maneauvre. It isnt working right now, but as always it'll evolve and indirect fires will resume their place in the go-forward team.
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