chris talpas

Now imagine the Bradley able to view the drone footage in real time giving themselves real time BDA.  In this fully illuminated space, any EM signature downsides would be more than offset by the better situational awareness.  Suddenly vehicles get to see the map in overhead view with all the benefits that those weak willed among us who don’t play on ironman.  
 

Now imagine the Bradley able to view the drone footage in real time giving themselves real time BDA.  In this fully illuminated space, any EM signature downsides would be more than offset by the better situational awareness.  Suddenly vehicles get to see the map in overhead view with all the benefits that those weak willed among us who don’t play on ironman.  
 

Impressive video.

Not me man, they got their pints of blood out of this old warhorse years ago (f#ck, that really sounds like a statement that could come back to haunt me.) 
Seriously, I saw some noise about "western boots on the ground in Ukraine".  Guys it has already happened.  We are moving from covert to overt.  Hell, someone I know very well turned down a tour in a J7 shop in Kyiv just last month.  They have positions posted for in-country tours up and are trying to pull people in.  This is all part of that slow boil strategy the West appears to be pursuing.  We will put in staff and supports into HQ first.  Then some sort of in country support mission on the western border.
By the time this is over we might have a freakin multi-national division in country.

When @The_Capt starts posting with a 7-8 hr time delay from North America, you'll know where he's been sent...
 

I think this understates the situation considerably. Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq were peripheral wars that did not seriously affect the US strategic position. Ukraine is a war to defend the outer ramparts of the EU...which is where the US has 50% of its trade and gets 50% of its foreign investment. And a failure of will there has implications for perceptions of American will over Taiwan, future confrontations over NATO, etc. 
Munich is the most abused analogy in modern history...which is a shame...because it applies here.

I have never fully subscribed to "LOLZ Russia" or "Russia Sux".  Nor does a steady stream of one-sided war porn change that.  As to the second point: a major personal gripe on this forum is "Monster Russia!."  Undersubscribing Russia is as big a sin as oversubscribing Russia.  We have posters who need to continually take the worst case for Ukraine, and best case for Russia at every instance.  This is not healthy or useful, and as harmful as the overtly "LOLZ Russia" narratives
I gotta be honest, I am astounded on what is still holding Russia together.  As I said, I re-visited Oryx after a long absence and for tanks and AFVs, Russia has lost 3x what Ukraine had as their entire fleets at the beginning of the war.  We have continually seen signs of Russian strain: lower quality equipment showing up at the front, conscription of excess human capacity, mass migration out of Russia, buying ammo from NK (FFS).  However, one has to simply shake ones head at the level of Russian obstinance in all this.  I am not sure how they are holding their military together right now based on these losses.  Further, the shock of this war on Russia cannot be understated.  Does anyone think Putin planned for all this?  That Russian society was ready for this?  No western nation would be ready for something like this war, the shock would cripple us.  Imagine if Iraq in '03 had turned into something like this war; it would have broken the West.
So what?  Well first off, Russia clearly is not in great shape and their performance in this war compared to the advertising has fallen woefully short.  Russian resilience is high, I will give them that.  Yet we do not know where that breaking point is for them - further, they could have already crossed it...these sorts of things do not happen fast, until they do.  But...and it is a big "but", Russia does have a breaking point.  Every nation/society/human collective on earth has a breaking point.  Russia is not invincible and homogeneous.  Under enough stress it will fracture - economically, militarily and socially.  What we have is a competition of breaking points - ours, Ukraine and Russia's.  Our "breaking point" in the West (US in particular) is laughably low.  I suspect Ukraine's breaking point is further out than Russia's as of all the parties to this conflict, only Ukraine is facing direct existential crisis.  The question really is: can weak western will plus desperate Ukrainian will defeat Russian (??? metric ???) will?  One can immediately see the two major variables here.  Western will and Russian will are the two players on a Ukrainian fulcrum.  The location of that fulcrum depends on how much western support we provide to Ukraine.
I stand by my position that militarily this war has already been won; however, that does not mean it cannot still be lost.  If the West totally fails Ukraine, Russia will take ground - it, in effect, expands Russian option spaces.  Russian airpower seems intent on flexing, perhaps eyeing air superiority again.  A complete withdrawal of US support is a strategic mistake of historic proportions.  It is essentially ceding a proxy war and Ukraine could enter the annals with Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan of lost US ventures.  The rest of the West will need to step up.  If Ukraine falters, as some have insisted, then the whole conversation is moot.  If the fulcrum shatters, there is no war.  The West will write it off to "bad investment" and re-draw the lines.
The longer I watch this war, the more in awe of what the WW1 and WW2 generations went through.  We see those wars through the safe lens of history.  It is another thing entirely to be in the middle of one with the future unwritten.

Macron for the rhetorical win. I had regained some hope in Scholz, but man, fool me once... 

Some of the strongest language I have heard from Israel directed at Russia so far.
 

Lol check out the decals on the side of his plane... 
 

Let's hope this makes it:
 

We have GrigB Intelligent Translation Services. During next week, the Russian Statistical Service will release a fresh report. Over the weekend, Russian opposition economist Milov will assess the campaign's strategic impact. If nothing bad happens on my end, we'll have a summary by Sunday night.

To many people that matter are convinced that the world can be reset to the day before the Russian full scale invasion. The reluctance to admit that long term trajectories have changed permanently has still not been overcome. Defense spending is going to have to have higher for multiple decades, globalization is going to slowed, and perhaps reversed for decades. The secular cult of share holder value being the ONLY thing that matters is needs to be staked in the heart, permanently. Boeing being exhibit A on that one. Hopefully it won't take Ukraine falling, and Russia invading the Baltics to get the point across. Or maybe Trump wins and civilization takes a multi-century wrong turn into a dystopian nightmare.

But why? Why is the EU and USA doing that? Don't they know how important this conflict is? Do they not want to see Russia collapse (even at the risk it may cause a major power vacuum)? Why did we 'fight' the Cold War? The hard right was all behind defeating the USSR. Now they've flip-flopped. I just don't get it. All we have to do is provide arms to the Ukrainians. That supports our defense industry. No US servicemen (or women) are being asked to risk their lives. This should be a no-brainer. Is it because of the election year?

Just on the subject of the collapse of Russia.
Personally I believe I will see parts of the Russian Federation break away or even the outright collapse of Russia in my lifetime. Honestly I think it can happen regardless if the collective West wants it to happen or not. A geopolitical YouTube channel  Good Times Bad Times did a very good trilogy on this hypothetical event, I think I linked it before here. Here is a link to the first of the three videos for those who want to check it out. Should We Prepare For (the Next) Break-up of Russia?
I really hope our governments are also taking this possibility seriously not just because of the nuclear weapons. If The European Union thought they got a lot of refugees from the various wars in the middle east or even this war, I could only imagine how many Russians would be trying to enter the European Union if the RF started collapsing.
 

It's only fair. The Ukrainian Navy is taking out the BSF, and the Russians want to take out one of the services too

Gentleman. You can't fight here, this is the war room.
(Sorry I had celebratory drink.)

A50 strike video with eng translate/
Looks like it fired off all its flares, 1, maybe 2 missiles were deceived but the rest of the salvo kept going.
 

Another Rus A50 gone? 
 
 

Seth G. Jones, Senior Vice President and Director of the International Security Program at CSIS, will be joined by Eliot A. Cohen, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS; Emily Harding, Director of the Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program and Deputy Director of the International Security Program at CSIS; and the Honorable Michael Vickers, former Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and CIA operations officer. 

Recently, I noticed that my UKR listening skills have improved noticeably. With the aid of translators and some effort, I can watch and translate UKR videos. So, let check the following interview with UKR AFV expert (former AFU tank officer)
 
 

I would like to make a bet over something you belive is unreasonable (recapturing 100% of territory). I hold different opinion and ready to bet. 
For different reasons this exact scenario I assess as unlikely and not ready to bet on it. There is second bet I can offer - the war ends with UKR victory (means RU withdrawal from 100% of UKR territory + official end of hostilities/peace agreement) in the timeframe: between 9 month and 15 months from now.  All conditions above must be met for my victory. In all other cases it is your victory. 
As 15 months is a long period then on 31 of December 2024, I will ask Steve to help us and make a decision if the overall situation has signs of possible UKR victory in time defined by me or not.  In case the decision is negative (no signs of possible victory in time frame I defined) I will concede the defeat.
If there is disagreement on anything I will ask Steve to make the decision and will honor it. 
The prize is a bottle of Gin (I suggest our own choosing because it is not about money and to avoid the hassle of finding the exact one required).  

So a complete withdrawal to pre-2014 lines and a lasting peace agreement that allows Ukraine to enter NATO.  You are on and I earnestly hope I lose this bet.