chris talpas

I find chance often favours the bold and righteous! My thanks to you @Haiduk for all that you have done to shed light on this barbaric and senseless attack by Russia. The skill and valour of the Ukrainian people are an inspiration to us all. This could be a Midway moment where the Russian fleet is essentially neutralized as a threat to land based forces and thus shifts the initiative. I think Ukraine has taken a decisive first step in essentially breaking up Russia's sea denial/control strategy. And to do it in a way that is especially cheeky and symbolic -sinking Moscow and releasing a commemorative stamp that features a Ukranian solder giving the bird to the Moskva prior to the attack. A further consideration is that Russia is unable to redeploy additional vessels into the Black Sea due to closure of the Dardanels to warships by Turkey.

If the stories behind the tactics of using the drone to distract and fixate the most capable (but with significant blindspot) radar system are true, then that shows a supreme inside understanding of enemy unit technical weaknesses. I am reminded of the scene in The Hunt for Red October, where Ryan and Mancuso are aboard the Red October and Ramius is directing Ryan to steer into the oncoming torpedo with Mancuso urging Ryan not to do it. When the torpedo harmlessly impacts -Mancuso praises Ramius' insider knowledge using standard tactics against them -doing the unexpected. I think a lot of planning went into this attack. I also think it no coincidence that the commerative stamp was released shortly before this attack. The creative choice of using a sacraficial drone to district and the choice of timing in rough seas which helped hide the sea skimmers shows real imagination and audacity [again common theme with the Ukrainians!].

Someone had mentioned earlier it was interesting to see the naval aspects discussed. I went over and visited the Matrix Games Command Modern Operations forum and found this: https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=10201&t=382814 Refreshingly, like in other matters related this this war, this forum is leading the way in terms of both quality and timeliness of information. THE CMO analysis at this moment lags behind. Well done everyone!

Not that I want to find out, but one has to wonder how well maintained is their nuclear arsenal? Hey why spend money on something that no one thought would be realistically used. Like I said probably better not to dwell on those types of weapons.

Seeing a recurring theme of poorly maintained equipment and poor tactical operation now across all their forces (including the relatively absent Air Force too). A real Potemkin village situation. I love the irony/synchronicity of the postage stamp release and the successful attack on the Moskva

Video showing the recetnly liberated village of Romanivka. Presents the physical destruction at a human scale. Looking at the extent of destruction, it almost resembles a path of wreckage. from a large twister. I cannot begin to imagine the extent of damage to Ukraine's infrastructure, let alone the human suffering.

Indeed many many thanks to @Haiduk for his reports, and on the scene insights. You have added so much to this thread. We are all in your debt!

Want to add my thanks as well for the excellent analysis provided by TheCapt and Steve

Ironic that I was composing my prior post while Longleftflank did his.

Putting aside Boris Johnson’s own political motives, I think his appearance strolling the streets of Kyiv with President Zelensky projected a powerful message of strength and courage. This beacon of hope, Kyiv, which fiercely resisted and drove back the dark forces of Sauron, is being shown to the world as still being free. But the flame of freedom needs to remain fuelled; I’m glad the Zelensky was not left empty handed. I thank the Peoples of the UK for their support of Ukraine. It is fitting for the Brit’s to up the aid ante by now offering the means to project counter sea-denial operations. No longer will the Russians operate on the Black Sea with impunity! This expands their ability to cause Ivan some pain. Not only Russia’s naval forces but couldn’t merchant traffic even be called fair game. Fitting too that it be done by a NATO member with their own sovereign nuclear force. The frog continues to slowly boil.

Check this out from around 21:30 onwards where it discusses regional governors beginning to put their regions first in order to protect their own butts.

Could this approach work offensively? Use switchblade drones to target artillery assets, then use javelin NLAW to deal with tanks & IFVs and then finally artillery going after the softer targets. Use SAM assets to protect the artillery since ATGM equipped infantry can be more dispersed and easily hidden. Essentially trying to use stand-off technology to minimize UA losses.

Actually a great breakdown of what resources lUkraine has:

Some historical comparison. After Pearl Harbour, Admiral William Halsey said 'Before We're Through With 'em, the Japanese Language Will be Spoken Only in Hell" A sentiment shared I'm sure by many Americans at the time. Passions can run high during war time.

Here is a nice video on the Ukrainian Stugna P ATGM Chris

Borg SpottingTM a concept that was ahead of its time Come on Steve, are you sure you don't have some sorta time machine?

Very good synopsis of the situation and larger geopolitical analysis. A particular highlight is the eirily prescient comments of Oleksiy Arestovych given in an interview several years ago predicting this war. Highly recommend a view.

Wouldn't a Russian/Belarusian operation open the way for them to once again suffer heavy losses as they push into previously unconquered territory? I doubt they would be effective at cutting off supply unless they cozied up to the Polish border but that would be a new round of escalation and an awful lot of territory to try and hold. One has to wonder about the motivation level of any Belarusian forces, especially if they run into the expected fierce resistance.

Good interview with a Canadian commander who was involved in NATO training of the Ukrainian forces. She gets into changes that were instituted in nature of command structure empowering local commanders with taking initiative rather than the Soviet/Russian top down almost micromanagement approach. The development and importance of the senior NCOs was also discussed. She also expresses her immense pride in how the Ukrainian forces have performed and her confidence in them. https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2011381827562

Pretty standard pathogens that you could see in analytical testing labs serving hospitals or pharmaceutical manufacture. The geobacillus stearothermophilus for instance is used as a reference organism (Biological Indicator) in the validation of sterilization cycles in pharmaceutical applications (primarily those manufacturing sterile dosage forms) since its spores are extremely hardy.

I personally think NATO should go ahead and give the planes to the Ukraine. We have already delivered countless anti tank and anti air missiles that have killed hundreds of Russian vehicles and many aircraft. Yes it is some escalation, but we've already sent so much. I also find it interesting that the Russian cease fire request came shortly after the Polish announcement. Coincidence? maybe. I don't think at this stage we want to suddenly have cold feet. We've been firm and true to our words of no NATO troops on the ground or in the air over Ukraine. However we have also provided unprecedented material support.

Wonder if there are any appropriate HARM's that could be used or interfaced with those MiG-29's that could deal with the more problematic SAM batteries? Not sure if the Ukrainian airforce ever trained for any Wild Weasel tactics to shut down air defenses? Could be useful to have some tasked in that role.

I think we are really seeing the real life effectiveness of standoff man portable anti tank weapons like the Javelin and NLAW against modern armor. I remember being in awe of what squads equipped with Javelins could do when Shock Force first came out -it was almost magical

How about then for the sake of fareness. How many countries, my own included1, have basically failed to adequately fund their militaries letting just a few of the NATO members do most of the heavy lifting? I think this conflict taught us that it is a 'come as you are war', where you better have adequate kit on hand since there will be no time to procure it. I'm pretty sure the U.S. wouldn't be upset at seeing all the members putting forth effort to shoulder more responsibility for the collective defense of the alliance. 1 -Not taking away from the amazing things the Cdn Armed Forces have done despite the less than ideal government support

Don't want to distract from the main Ukraine thread, but I would love to see a meaningful discussion amongst the Canadian members, and other interested allies in another thread (open to suggestions as to most appropriate sub-forum) on what would be the most effective reforms/rebuilding for the Canadian armed forces? How steps should Canada take to make our forces more effective in light of the reality of the current world that doesn't appear to believe in the post-national ideal? It would be interesting to hear what changes could be made to procurement policies: for example, given the realization that we are seriously under-prepared for the present situation, what changes can be made such that purchases of foreign off the shelf kit be made easier? How do you divide the pie between the Army, Airforce, and Navy? Then you can get into relative merit of kit.