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acrashb

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  1. Like
    acrashb reacted to Phil003 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I really don't want to defend the behavior of my country in general (I am a Hungarian), but in this case I see no sufficient evidence behind this claim. So what seems to be true is that there was some kind of conflict with Hungarian authorities when the video was recorded, because somebody in the background keeps saying in Hungarian 'put the phone away'. The words he is using indicates that he is perhaps a bit tense, but he does not sound especially aggressive or threatening. Also the incident was supposed to happen on the 26th, but there is no mention of it in the Hungarian independent media. Anyway, a friend of mine now forwarded the link to this tweet to one of the independent news outlets in Hungary, so perhaps they will have a look to clarify what really happened.
  2. Like
    acrashb reacted to chrisl in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The base stations don't have anything special about them - receiver dishes aren't a big deal.  The satellites and launch vehicles are the ITAR restricted part.  The restrictions are generally well defined, but they can also be updated pretty easily if the government decides something is a risk, and the government can rapidly change what you can export to where.  The switch of everything that goes to space falling under ITAR was very abrupt a few decades ago and had a huge impact on US satellite sales.  I had collaborations that were affected when that happened, and I've seen a few cases where people's lives were messed up by export investigations even when they were ultimately cleared.
  3. Like
    acrashb reacted to paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Actually, there have been a large number of studies that show that the majority of people aren't 'selfish & brutal' and are altruistic in many ways ... perhaps most ways ... sure, there will always be sociopaths, psycopaths, malignant narcissists and others with anti-social personality disorders, but they are in a minority.
    The problem is when such people gain control over the levers of power ... they can do a heck of a lot of damage.
    Putin in Russia, the Kims in Korea, Xi in China are all good (bad?) examples ... 
  4. Like
    acrashb reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not to provoke anyone with this statement but I currently see Russia winning.
    Why? I'm not a Putin troll, I don't believe in the Russian Master Plan™ that has some 1 mio men waiting behind the Ural equipped with T-14 or similar nonsense. I also don't think the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed because they lost a few Leopards and aren't yet on the way to Moscow. (Edit: Oh, and of course, there is no infinite pool of bodies Russia can throw at Ukraine!) I see that the war itself isn't really going well for Russia.
    It seems to me, though, yeah weird thought in one of the largest conventional wars of the last decades, that this conflict has become kind of asymmetrical in nature. Because, like in guerilla warfare, currently Russia wins by not losing while Ukraine loses by not winning.
    As long as Russia somehow manages to stay in the war they win. And "stay in the war" could even mean Ukraine regained all their territory but the Russian army still remains a threat and there is no formal peace treaty. A smoldering or even a frozen conflict still means no NATO and/or EU membership for Ukraine. It also means no or reduced foreign investments to rebuild Ukraine. And I think (but maybe the experts can chime in) that is enough for the current regime to sell the ongoing war to the general population. Keeping the Nazis out of NATO or something. The part of the Russians that's not just apathetic seems to actually support the war. Sure, hard to tell in Russia but even many "Spätaussiedler" (people from Russia with German roots) who immigrated to Germany and other Russian immigrants here seem to be on board with that way of thinking.
    On the other hand, we all think that Western support for Ukraine will eventually shrink especially if we don't see significant progress. There is also the uncertainty of the upcoming US presidential election. So while militarily time is on Ukraines side for now, overall I think Ukraine is running against the clock.
    So, anything short of a regime change or a total collapse of the Russian army that makes it absolutely clear that Russia won't be a threat for the next one or two decades has the potential to eventually lead to a Russian "victory". Sure, Putin seems to have lost power but there is no guarantee that a successor would stop the war. We are also seeing cracks in the Russian armed forces but given that we've been speculating on a collapse soon™ for around a year now, that seems a bit too optimistic, too. We have also discussed direct Western interventions and (generally) come to the conclusion that this isn't going to happen for various reasons.
    Sorry for this bleak outlook. You may now start throwing stones. Seriously, though, what am I missing?
  5. Like
    acrashb reacted to Splinty in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Now compare crew losses from Soviet/Russian armor to NATO/Western armor.
  6. Like
    acrashb reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Putin says Russia withdrew army from Kyiv because it was "asked" (yahoo.com)
    🤣🤣🤣
  7. Like
    acrashb reacted to Splinty in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This war is far from over. I think Ukraine has a hard task ahead of them. But, I also believe they will regain all their lost territory.
  8. Like
    acrashb reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    what?  this level of pessimism isn't warranted yet. in fact most signs are pointing to this war becoming more and more a problem for the russian state.  Patience.
  9. Like
    acrashb reacted to Sojourner in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sure, why not?

    HIMARS and Storm Shadow are also good talkers.
  10. Like
    acrashb reacted to akd in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is RPG-7.  You are seeing the booster rocket kick in after launching charge.
  11. Like
    acrashb reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Maybe we just try and capture the ones China keeps floating by and giving those to the UA. 😆
  12. Like
    acrashb reacted to Eddy in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Interesting read: 
    Russians See Ukrainian Progress Where Others Don’t - New Lines Magazine
    Pretty major push back on the 'Counter offensive is failing/too slow" line pushed by some newspapers and others. 
  13. Like
    acrashb reacted to Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I mean, they are right.
    But isn't depressing, seeing how China and to a lesser degree Iran will provide whatever they can just to nut-punch the West while Western nations look with equal concern at Ukraine and their purses.
    Granted, this is possible because the third parties supporting Russia are inhumane, bloodthirsty regimes who do not have to worry about accountability for their budgets.
    But boy, does it show how much easier it is to just embrace being the villain instead of trying to do what's right. You will be called a villain anyway, often by people who benefited a lot from the Western system. It is a thankless task.
  14. Like
    acrashb reacted to FlemFire in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I would never risk myself or family getting incinerated on behalf of eastern Ukraine and every single person who has two brain cells to rub together thinks the same. Your bloodlust and suicidal tendencies exist only on paper.
  15. Like
    acrashb reacted to Rokko in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    When I see pictures like this I sometimes think that people who develop camouflage patterns professionally have to be gnashing their teeth whenever they see footage from this war. Both sides use the same intricately designed patterns, scientifically crafted based on decades worth of studies and research to fool the human eye ... just for both sides to slap bright colored airsoft tape on top as much as possible to avoid friendly fire ... because IFF is kinda hard if your main source of observation and fire control are cheap commercial drones.
  16. Like
    acrashb reacted to FlemFire in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This isn't Syria. You won't have a no-fly zone. You'll have air-to-air combat between air forces, all within range of Russia's anti-air systems mind you, with fighters and bombers inevitably crossing borders and having their intentions misread, which will rapidly escalate into something worse. Russia isn't going to be very chill with Western aircraft zipping around their airspace and within minutes-distance of striking strategic assets. 
  17. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I do not use the Ignore function often but in this case may I recommend it.  “Real men do not fear the bomb” is just dumb.  It was during the Cold War and dumber now.  If some people want to wrap themselves in dumb and feel all safe and warm, well there are entire social media platforms dedicated to that.
  18. Like
    acrashb reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm very unclear on your point here...
  19. Like
    acrashb reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Maybe we need to clarify "At War". I would consider the current state between "The West" and Russia as a contest, not military conflict. For Ukraine it's very much a military conflict, obviously. But for NATO and US, its a contest. We don't have direct skin in the game other than the hypothetical system of how we run things might twist away from us. But that's a far cry from our families under direct fire and bombs destroying our shipping. 
    Ukraine is at war with Russia. The West is resisting Russia but it has not been materially attacked.
    If NATO isn't the ones to do the mining of a Russian port city, then who? Ze Germans? Yer 'avin a larf, guvnor.
  20. Like
    acrashb reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This whole narrative is getting out of hand here. Now don't get me wrong. I mean, sure, in principle this is kind of a proxy war. But IMHO you are inverting responsibilities and this is really where "Ukraine fights this war on our behalf/for us" (mind the discussion here some pages back about what the exact wording should be) breaks down. Let's not forget that it was Russia attacking Ukraine. Not Russia attacking NATO/the West or NATO/the West attacking Russia and of course not NATO/the West attacking Ukraine. The point? It is because Russia or Putin's regime decided to invade that Ukrainians are fighting and Ukrainians are dying. Not because we somehow made them fight or they were caught in the middle or something. Yes, in reality we quite likely sent Russia the signal that we wouldn't care enough to get involved and therefore indirectly encouraged Putin. But at the end of the day it was Putin & cronies who gave the order to invade, not any Western leader.
    Now we did get involved, we do support Ukraine and we could possibly do more but we are not at war and since, see above, we are not responsible for Russian soldiers being in Ukraine, IMHO we are not obliged to enter this war. That doesn't mean we can't but since NATO wasn't attacked this is a decision every country has to make for itself. International law absolutely gives every country the right to support the defender of a war of aggression, also by military means. So if you feel your country should get involved more directly, call up your representative in congress or whatever and tell him/her. Nothing wrong with that. But we are democracies and other people have different opinions. Our leaders are not dictators and as long as there is no majority in favour of going to war it is not spineless or whatever for a leader or a government as a whole to not do so.
    Note to everyone here: Maybe my perception here is a bit skewed but it seems to me we are seeing increasingly heated fights between... I don't know Hawks and Doves here? I really shouldn't presume to play the Upholder of Moral Standards here but I feel we should have a bit less "holier than thou" and "he that is not with me is against me" and stuff like that.
  21. Like
    acrashb reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not war.
  22. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    COMBINED ARMS 3-54. Combined arms is the synchronized and simultaneous application of all elements of combat power that together achieve an effect greater than if each element was used separately or sequentially. Combined arms integrates leadership, information, and each of the warfighting functions and their supporting systems, as well as joint weapon systems. Used destructively, combined arms integrates different capabilities so that counteracting one makes the enemy vulnerable to another. Used constructively, combined arms uses all assets available to the commander to multiply the effectiveness and efficiency of Army capabilities used in stability or defense support of civil authorities tasks.
    THE WARFIGHTING FUNCTIONS 4-19. To execute operations, commanders conceptualize capabilities in terms of combat power. Combat power has eight elements: leadership, information, mission command, movement and maneuver, intelligence, fires, sustainment, and protection. The Army collectively describes the last six elements as the warfighting functions. Commanders apply combat power through the warfighting functions using leadership and information. (See chapter 5 for a discussion of combat power.)
    https://usacac.army.mil/sites/default/files/publications/ADRP 3-0 OPERATIONS 11NOV16.pdf
     
  23. Like
    acrashb reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think that Grozev and Weiss aren't going to speculate on what they can't nail down. I'd personally say that a formal alliance isn't the sort of thing these folks do but the outlines look pretty clear (Rosneft, Dyumin, Zolotov). Not acting to defend Putin, for the big players, amounts to the same thing as actively attacking him in the end. As I see it, the damage to Putin's regime is illustrated far more by what we don't see than what we do. To use the famous trope: 

  24. Like
    acrashb reacted to Tux in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Apparently the West's 'boil the frog' strategy has been so successful even some of its own citizens haven't noticed how much they've committed...
    Russia crossed a red-line on February 24th, 2022.  It's been discussed on this board that, despite the obvious failings in the Russian invasion plan, they probably would have eventually succeeded if they has been fighting against Ukraine alone.  Historic levels of Western support have turned that into what will almost certainly be a crushing defeat for Russia.  What about that makes you think Russia are getting away with anything at all, here?  What exactly do you think the Russians have control of?  They are still humans, they still have agency of their own and they do not seem to be in the mood to compromise.  They will therefore continue to do stuff we don't like for a while, yet.  That's life.  No stopping it.
    Fixed that for you.
    EU membership is not a prize owed to anyone.  That's not how it works.  If you want to join you have to meet all the strict economic entry conditions, regardless of which war you just fought.  Being a good friend isn't enough; just ask Turkiye.
    And I must have missed the bit where someone belonging to either NATO or the EU argued that we should let any warcrimes slide...?
     
    Seriously, I get that the war is frustrating and we'd all like it to be over tomorrow but that just isn't going to happen.  Please, unless we have specific, realistic ideas to add to the discussion can we dial down the daily temper-tantrums and lashing-out at the West for not snapping its fingers and making the bad man go away?
     
    Also, as a genuine aside, has anyone else noticed that parties who are accused of being "spineless" in almost any context often seem to end up winning?
  25. Like
    acrashb reacted to Dmytro Gadomskyi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    1 year of the war is passed. From the start of the invasion and to the huge count of air and missile strikes. One of my friends has been killed by wagner artillery in Bohorodichne village near Bakhumt. My father-in-law has been killed by storming the defensive enemy positions in the Kherson region 1st of October. I gave 3 of my salaries (all what I have)on the first day of the war on the military budget. Thanks to all of you, thanks for your help. Taking carry of our refugees, helping our soldiers to destroy enemy forces with AT weapons, artillery, APS, AFV, and Tanks, peoples who served in foreign legions. Thank you for giving billions of money to support our economy. Special thanks to battlefront for small support for me, when I asked about a discount, they gave me 2 games with all DLCs for free - I didn't expect this. Some of my relatives were in Kherson in occupation, and all high-value electronic and expensive things were looted from them by Russian forces. And now we don't fear rocket strikes (10 times they exploded 700-1000m from my house) we don't fear nuclear threat, we don't fear the second army in the world and you shouldnt. Sorry for we English would that what I want to say for all of you, I can tell you many things about the war but first i will try to improve my language knowlages.
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