Bil Hardenberger
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Posts posted by Bil Hardenberger
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2 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Yes, that is my sense as well. The Russian operational trend appears consistently to try and do too much with too little. Given the "typical" BTG construct:
(Seen these pictures everywhere)
According to the old frontage rules, this outfit could likely cover a 3 km frontage in the old 2 up, one back formation. The MLRS and I assume UAV support allows it to strike really deeply, it has some flank security and AD so is somewhat self contained (except recon but I will get to that).
So with 16 BTGs, assuming they hold 1/3 in reserve means about 11 BTG up front, which translates to about 33, say 35 kms frontage. A rough eyeball of the Russian start line up there:
Is roughly twice that frontage...at the start line. That frontage will expand in the advance, not even taking into account attrition. So either the Russians are using a very different force-to-frontage metric and giving that BTG a 7-10km front which is a lot to ask of 800-1000 pers unless you have got some next-gen ISR and precision lethality.
Which leads me to the next big question? Where is the Russian recon? I have been looking around and in all this discussion I have not seen anything on how or where the Russian recon screens are laid down. There are no dedicated recon units in the BTG (unless I am missing them), I have to assume that the recon is held at formation. Given the environment that is not a small ask, to screen a 70+km frontage out to 10-20 kms. This is made worse as the UA method has put eyes with teeth everywhere so you would need detailed/close recon at least out to 4-5km in front of lead BTG elements (the range of the Javelin being 4+km) to even stand a chance.
For historical reference:
So that is a 10-25km frontage for an old MRD, with a recon screen out 50km in front. That MRD has 9 MRBs and 3 TBs with an entire TR in reserve (so 3 more TBs), for a total of 15 Bn-sized units...for 10-25km. And there would be another MRD behind it. To do what the Russians are proposing, in old Soviet terms would require 3-5 full up MRDs, an entire CAA at full strength.
I get frontages have expanded with modern ISR and weaponry (or maybe they haven't on the advance) but this is asking a lot of fresh troops, let alone already mauled ones. Am I missing something?
They have Recon Company in their BTGs... supposed to anyway. Should be a BRM and BTRs or BRDMs... in your illustration in the second column I think the BTR company with the BRM is the Recon Company.
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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:
Ok, so apologize for what will be a longish post, even for me. So welcome to The Capt's terrain analysis for the possible upcoming fight between Izyum and Donetsk. Basically I wanted to get a view of the terrain this next major fight is sqauring off over and try and pull some deductions from that.
So here is what I did. I booked an MS Flight Simulator (MSFS) flight from Donetsk to Kharkiv roughly along this google maps line:
For reference you can see the ISW map of where this next great Russian offensive is spooling up:
They buried Donetsk under the legend but this is the area of concern. So I did not use live weather as it is pissing rain there right now and based on what I am seeing it is a big reason the Russian have not started anything. I flew at 1000 feet up but employed the drone feature to get down and grab a birds eye view. Overall I would summarize the terrain in military terms as such:
On the 8th day, while recovering from a hangover God looked upon the earth and said to himself "You know these shaved apes are going to go at each other the second I turn my back so I may as well make it interesting. Let there be tank country!"
These shots are just south - southwest of Izyum. So on the surface you can immediately see a lot of room for manoeuvre tailor made for armored warfare. I mean I can see frontages of kms just aching for big ol tank formations to come charging through with all sorts of room for bypassing, flanking and all that good stuff. But then go a bit deeper:
So if you take a look at that last one, check out the VFR map in the upper right. There are a lot of water features distributed all over this area and in the spring they are going to be deep and muddy. Little lakes and rivers just about everywhere that amphib IFVs can probably bounce but tanks, arty and logistics are going to have trouble with. So what? Target the engineering stuff with all them fancy switchblades, then arty, then C2...we will get to logistics. Next how about all them rectangles:
Yep, a lot of these little and big squares all over the place...damn Ukrainian real estate laws. For armored warfare these are going to be a problem. Easy button answer...arty them all! Well no one on earth has enough arty for that as these things are everywhere. Each one a short range tank hunting dream, with ready made tractor trails to boot off on once you have fired off a couple NLAWS and are falling back to the next one to re-set. These thing will soak up attacking infantry to sweep and will slow things down a lot. Oh wait there is more:
These are not CM3 previews (but we can dream) but in MSFS you can drop right down to eye-level and wow. First off this area is not flat. "Undulating" is the term we would use, with lots of small hills and ridges, all of which give some sightlines we normally only see in a desert. So if I had a smart, fire and forget ATGM system with a listed range of 4.0km and was trying to sell it, these are the marketing shots I would take. I found these everywhere along the route but more so towards the south end of the likely Russian advance (or North from Donetsk but that is all trench country from the last war, so not likely).
Ok so what?
- First off if this thing goes off it will be a conventional battle for the history books. I mean the next one with this sort of potential is likely Armageddon itself. We have a near perfect storm of mass meets mass forming up. The collision on this has potential to be heard around the world.
- Second, this will be a major exam for conventional armored warfare. "End of Tanks: No They Are Not" may very well be settled in this one. You cannot really find much better terrain for armored warfare on one hand. While on the other, this is also excellent terrain for an mobile defence. The Russians should be able to create a break out with overwhelming mass here, if they play it right. While at the same time between prepared defenses and a combination of short and very long sightlines the Ukrainian defence should be able to stop them cold - that is an epic collision in the making.
- Third, so much of this will hinge on C4ISR it is looking more like an aerial dogfight than a traditional land-battle. The side that can see first at the tactical level will likely hit and win first. We should see more exchanges like were seen in the Nagorno-Karabahk which were very long range and then working in for the dirty work.
- Fourth, the Russian offence is going to have to evolve. They cannot bring their last fight to this one. They will need to rethink C4ISR collection and sharing, logistical planning - pushing a lot more forward faster, and targeting. The UA can keep doing what it was to be honest but it had better have made use of this pregnant pause to put in a lot of AT minefields that tie those water obstacles and rectangles together, they had the time and I can only hope they have the resources; this country is set up for nightmare defensive belts.
- Fifth, this will also be an exam for artillery, ATGMs, self-loitering and unmanned systems. This will show what they can really do together, primarily in the defense but let's not forget the offence as well. There are sightlines that can make full use of the ranges these systems can come bring to bear. Honestly if I were the UA, I would stick with hybrid at the front end, and then wait for my moment for a conventional c-attack because it could be a bone crusher. Given enough gas, a UA formation could drive right into the Russian rear areas and cry-freakin-havok back there looking at this terrain.
- Sixth, the awkward conversation about airpower. This is perfect CAS country, the Russian's need it, the UA needs to deny it. With full on air superiority this country would be a challenge for an attacker, without it we could be looking at a nightmare.
Finally, I would close by saying that I also get the sense that this is perfect terrain for an operational trap - it is what I would do.
#1 - Resist Russian main axis of advance...but just enough to attrit but give them hope. I would use obstacles to keep them on those axis and help channel them to what they want.
#2 - Oh look at how happy they Russian are, they have their great pincer BUT do not give them time for reorientation or to dig in, or they could use this country against you.
#3- Bil Hardenberger. That old bastard has snap the jaws closed on me more times than I care to remember. This country is made for a conventional c-attack to cut that corridor up and off.
#4 - Feeding time.
This terrain supports this and the Russians have given the UA a lot of time to set it up. Higher risk but the payoff is intense.
Just spit-balling here and I have every confidence they UA commanders on the ground have a grip on this but for a defender that 1) knows what they are doing, 2) are well resourced and 3) have the time to prepare, this could make for a textbook defence that could be turned into something else.
I believe that in this terrain long range fires, Javelin, Stugna, tanks, precision artillery. etc. will be more important than ever.
There will always be opportunities for short range (less than 1000m) ambushes, but Ukraine will need to rely on their long range AT fire to blunt the forward momentum (the slower they move, the more open to attack they are), but basically let them penetrate and provide a nice long train of follow-on forces. Ukraine can give up a lot of territory here... that isn't important.. they need to fight the enemy, not the ground.
Then infiltrate in close, and preferably in the rear to decimate the follow-on formations and support convoys. I suspect the pocketed Ukrainians (in Warren's #2 image) will have a field day in this role... like an angry badger stuck in a chicken coop.
That's what I would do at the sharp end of this thing.
Good analysis Warren.
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41 minutes ago, Hapless said:
Because it (almost inevitably) appeared elsewhere:
Better split that squad... asking for trouble all bunched up like that.
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11 minutes ago, dan/california said:
Link?
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13 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:
EDIT to add: Is it possible this formation is too 'infanty poor' for the mission it is being asked to accomplish? hence the overreliance on suppressive fires from the vehicles....
Sorry I haven't been more of a part of this conversation.. i have a lot of thoughts about the BTG... but this part right here... yes I think that is one of the two huge failings of the BTG concept and is a big part of why we aren't seeing a more robust march security.. the other huge failing is the BTG has a poor logistics train, it was sacrificed in favor of other priorities.
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52 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
This war is surreal... we see videos showing hte highest tech and most advanced weapon systems to this... that video could have been shot on the Western Front in WW1.
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4 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:
That being said, I can see how fixed-wing drones might work here, since there are plenty of models infantry can carry around. The big drawback I can see is that launching in full-remote operation with the tank buttoned down would probably only work with helicopter drones.
A launcher similar to how the Switchblade is launched mounted to a tank could provide OTH surveillance for a tank crew. Those could be launched remotely with the crew buttoned.
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9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
It fully involved on Donbas, where the war has more "traditional" form. It involved in Sumy oblast and Kharkiv - Russian BTGs in Trostianets and Rohan' were defeated not with lihgt infantry (though with their assist). Our "line troops" too busy to make footage, also a censorship there is more tough than in volunteers/TD and Azov, which since 2014 have made PR for itself. You can see Oryx about our losses, we lost about 70 tanks. So, they in fight.
Granted... I know there are some Mech. forces in the fight... however there must be a pretty healthy reserve waiting in the background... I doubt the whole force, or even most of it, is currently engaged...
QuoteFull picture, how our mech. and tank brigades fought, we can receive only after the war.
...but we'll see.
Best to you and your family Haiduk. You are an invaluable link and resource for us during this nightmare going on in your country.
Bil
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2 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Does anyone have any reliable data on this? Ukraine losses are likely not small but as proportion of their overall combat power? Also, I think conventional is more important here unless the UA cracks the code on how to get hybrid to conduct large offensives.
I am not sure if we are seeing stalemate or just a Ukrainian recon-in-force phase.
I have been thinking about this too.. many people are asking, where is the Ukrainian armor? They do seem to be pushing light infantry to the front, with only scattered mechanized forces actually being used so far. They are engaging the enemy with the smallest force required to do the job.. that is very smart... can it be that they have been husbanding there main striking power (mechanized forces) and waiting for the perfect opportunity?
Granted it is a huge risk to concentrate mechanized forces for a counter-attack, the Russians do have a significant indirect fire capability at the BTG level (and the Ukrainians were taught that lesson in 2014). But if they are holding these forces back, waiting for the intel to tell them the right place and time... it could be a huge knock out blow that nobody, especially the Russians, see coming.
Bil
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On 3/28/2022 at 6:24 PM, Jiggathebauce said:
Hey folks, loving CMCW. Was wondering if there would be any expansions this year or next, I didn't see anything about CMCW in the bones thread. Thanks
We do indeed have a road map... sorry but we can't share our plans yet beyond what Steve has hinted at. If you can be a little more patient I think you will be pleased when we can make an announcement.
Bil
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15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
As I understand from twitter post, these probes are from E / SE direction, probably from Berezan' or Baryshivka towns area.
Ah thanks, that makes a lot more sense... why not? It's just one more axis they need to sustain.
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2 hours ago, Haiduk said:
We controlled 80 % of Irpin', two days ago Russians conducted an attempt to expand own zone of control and launched attacks from three sides. Looks like their atatck has finished with their final expulsion from the town.
On eastern direction from Kyiv, Russians switched from Brovary direction on Boryspil (there is largest airport of Ukraine near this town). This night and the morning their probes were repelled. Today this photo appeared with "UKR tankers inspect two captured T-72B3 in Kyiv oblast", Judging on terraine and "O" marking, this is east from Kyiv, but I don't know when and what place
That Russian movement on Boryspil looks to me like it could be a breakout attempt (if it came from Brovary area), because otherwise it doesn't make sense.
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Just now, holoween said:
Also drones only really have a capability advantedge over manned systems in staying power. An apache can do everything an attack drone can except stay over the battlefield for 24 hours. A drone can also be risked more but a drone shot down is still a weapons system out of action even if it doesnt cost a soldiers life.
A Bayraktar tb2 costs from $1-2 million, and AH-64 costs over $30 million... for the cost, they UAVs give a much better bang for the buck.
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Just now, riptides said:
Better, but the next step - Hack it, return to sender.
Edit.. soory, quoted the wrong post.. should have been this one from @Probus
QuoteTotally agree. In the future, don't try to shoot a drone out of the sky, jam it out.
I know the Russians have small vehicle mounted jammers that could do this right now... however once used your location will be lit up like a Christmas tree for enemy EW teams to call fire on. I think the lifespan of such units would be short and of dubious effectiveness overall.
Bil
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UAVs in particular are tough to counter... do I think that the day of the MBT is over? No, not from what I am seeing... do I think that it will have to evolve to survive? Of course.. well maybe not the tank itself, but the way it's used tactically and supported, the TO&E of mechanized formations will need to evolve to include unmanned assets, both air and ground, and incorporate their suite of sensors and capabilities into the formation's TTP.
With potentially every squad having a quad-copter, and potentially every squad having loitering munitions too with Platoon HQs and Company HQs also having access to UAS and loitering munitions the proliferation is going to be very tough to counter without some EW means, such as jamming their GPS or command link. There are indeed other lethal Counter-UAS (CUAS) systems in development, but I don't think anyone has an answer for the sheer numbers of UAVs we are talking about. Any Electronic jamming defense will become very visible and easily targeted if used.. so it is a dead end answer I think... I can see some Suppress Enemy CUAS UAV missions and dummy loitering UAVs being used a s tactic to clear the way for lethal UAVs.
Leave no doubt.. unmanned systems are game changing and are changing the face of war... existing systems like the MBT and IFV will probably not be going away anytime soon.. but they and the the organizations that use them will need to evolve. Militaries better start planning for this now.
Bil
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On 3/22/2022 at 2:21 PM, The_Capt said:
No that is the Silver Fox who did CMCWs developer/designer video on Slitherine prior to release. I will not dox him, but to know him is to love him.
I love you too Warren.
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11 hours ago, Simcoe said:
Awesome story. This is what I love about Combat Mission as well. One of the most epic moments was during the final mission of the NTC campaign in Cold War.
My company combat team was situated behind a slight rise with dense, hilly terrain to the left and open ground on the right. I needed to hold off the enemy for a period of time then extract to my left. An entire BMP battalion split raced across both fronts as my tanks and TOW launchers valiantly stemmed the tide. As I got the green light to retreat the BMP's on my right hooked around my defenses and on my left three BMP's made it past my defenses and cut off my retreat. It was at that moment I heard the sound of an enemy helicopter (my vulcan was out of ammo). My tanks leap frogged, one defending the other as they retreated while my infantry were strafed running to the safety of the M113's. Desperation began to set in as my vehicles piled up behind the small hill the BMP's/infantry were defending.
I gathered a scratch team of infantry from various squads and a tank to take the hill. There was no time for caution, a mortar carrier had just been taken out and the BMP's on the right were just around the corner. My boys charged over the hill like maniacs. The Russians seemed to be taken by surprise but they quickly returned fire and casualties were heavy on both sides. It looked to be a futile effort as the BMP's guns opened up but at that moment the lone M-60 crested the hill and engaged the BMP's. He took out two before the final one got a solid hit and knocked out the tank. It was all worth it as reinforcements arrived and the convoy made it's move to the extraction point all the while harried by the helicopter.
I don't think you get stories like this from any other game.
Thanks for that vignette.. I haven't heard a lot of feedback from that particular battle in the NTC Campaign (there are two versions by the way, depending on which Decision you take)... I think it is the most challenging battle in that campaign, but then it was designed to be.
Bil
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It was a very good interview... for some additional background into how Combat Mission Cold War was born, Warren @The_Capt, @IICptMillerII, and I gave an interview to wargamer.fr shortly after the game was released on Battlefront.
You can read that interview here: https://www.wargamer.fr/combat-mission-cold-war-un-bouillant-trio-pour-une-guerre-froide/
Bil
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19 hours ago, Marwek77 aka Red Reporter said:
Short question - why Bil's Ground-Gridded terrain is not working in CMCW? Are there any alternatives? Thx.
Short answer: I haven't made a gridded mod for CMCW yet... not sure when I'll get the chance to do that. Sorry.. but I'm sure some other enterprising modder with more free time than I have will oblige in time.
Bil
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11 hours ago, Rinaldi said:
Blatantly borrowing from @Bil Hardenberger's blog to practice some scenario creation and pound the podium a bit...some screens:
Read it here: https://rinaldiaars.blogspot.com/2021/12/combat-mission-as-visual-aid-bringing.html
Outstanding Blog post!!! Highly recommended, if you are even mildly interested in tactics and the Soviet way of war.
BIl
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Thank you for the comments... @George MC helped me ham fist my way through this campaign... his AI programming was masterful and he had to jump through hoops to make it do what I wanted it to.
The final scenario was the graduation from NTC.. basically if you have made it that far you might have been feeling a little cocky, and it shows what a proper Soviet Battalion attack looks like, it should have been a shock. The action this was based on though, was a weakened Company Team against the entire NTC Regiment... so we took it easy on you.
@Simcoe What did you think of the Decision Points? I have seen little feedback on those and am wondering how they appear to the casual player.
Thanks again for the comments. Bil
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Seriously, the reason I thought this review was so good was because of the TDG replacement angle for the professional... I don't care that the reviewer probably isn't the most comfortable in the game I love the approach he is taking. I find it unique and refreshing.. and aligns with the intent we had for this game, as a tactical sandbox.
Bil
Killing a Forward Security Element
in Combat Mission Cold War
Posted
@IICptMillerII, very well written and your graphics are perfect... you have come a long way padawan.