Thank you very much for the information and all the links, Steve.
While I have not covered the conflict myself as thoroughly as you did, I do come to similar conclusions.
For me, it is really shocking how parts of German society mindlessly believe the Kreml-talk of "fighting the fascists" in Ukraine and still deny russian involvement there. Sorry if that is offtopic, but as a historian with an MA in cold war history, this just grinds my gears too much
Ontopic: I fear it will be a hot spring in Ukraine indeed. I am not entirely sure if Putin will be willing to commit more russian military to the conflict when the ukrainian Army will start an offensive in spring. Which I am nearly sure it will, after it has consolidated its forces over the winter.