Christmas present from Bob Woodward to John Kettler

[John Kettler]

Pak_43,

You are clearly taking things way out of context. The question wasn't about psychics per se. Rather, it was about whether, using Occam's Razor as the discriminator, we should believe the vast and wide ranging testimony of those who've come forward, often at great personal risk, at the Disclosure Project, Project Camelot and elsewhere, people who were entrusted, inter alia, with nuclear weapons, NATO's most sensitive secrets, flying strategic bombers and piloting fighters, operating radars in highly sensitive areas, keeping us alive in densely packed airspace and more, or whether we should believe Wilhammer? Not exactly a tough call in my book!

Also, the mere fact that some effect is obtainable via X doesn't ipso facto rule out that it could indeed be Y which is occurring. If you care to look into the literature, for example, there is a very clear difference in the micro crystalline structure of a spoon that's bent by main force and one that's bent a la Geller. If you don't believe me, see SUPERMINDS : A Scientist Looks at the Paranormal, by John Taylor, Chapter 8. Taylor is/was (book came out in 1975) a Professor of Mathematics at King's Colege, Oxford, and a Fellow of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, the Institute of Physics and the Physical Society.

Wilhammer,

Yes, I did go a bit for the dramatic there, because I wished to make a point. I'm not falling for your tricks! As for fissures, it's your position which seems to be developing stress cracks.

Stalin's Organist,

Have you had a chance to digest the material to which I gave you the links? If so, what did you think of it? Feel free to PEM me if you'd rather not draw the heavy caliber flak I do here.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Stalins Organ]

john the "testimonials" on the Noreen Renier page are absolute drivel

they say nothing at all about psychic ability - not one single thing.

Let's take one that seems pretty good on the face of it:

I was skeptical until Noreen said on the phone from almost 1OOO miles away that there was something wrong with my friend's leg. He had been hobbling around on crutches for a week, and there was no way for her to know that."

Wow - amazing - she accurately spoted a gammy leg from 100 miles away.

But wait - no she didn't - she said there was "something wrong" with it....hello?? there's "something wrong" with everyone's leg(s) - it's nothing more than general statement that has a masive chance of scoring a hit with conformation bias!

Or another:

"...the Bureau has used Renier strictly in an academic setting, to expand the thinking of police officers. We have, however, given her name to law enforcement people who want to try a psychic. And some of them have said she's solved cases."

"Some have said..." - enuf said!

Or, finally, the very first one, which I've kept until last even tho it's the first one on the page:

"Remarkably, the lost man's body was found EXACTLY where Renier said it would be! People scoffed at us for seeking out a psychic's help, but Noreen's input was quite incredible...even a bit spooky,"

And here's what ACTUALLY hapened:

Charles Capel was last seen alive May 20, 2004, the night before he wandered away from his home in Oxford Township in rural Butler County, Ohio. The retired university professor, who suffered from Alzheimer's, could not be found despite repeated searches by police and volunteers. In October, frustrated by a lack of leads, Oxford police enlisted self-proclaimed psychic detective Noreen Renier in the search. For a $650 taxpayer-funded fee, she described the area where Capel would be found. Acting on Renier's information, police renewed the search but still found nothing. Weeks and months dragged on without a break in the case until December 1, when Capel's body was discovered less than a mile from his home, in an area the police apparently missed.

According to a news report in the Oxford Press, "The small patch of cornfield-surrounded woodland where Capel was found possessed uncanny similarities to the area psychic detective Noreen Renier described to police.... Though in Virginia, hundreds of miles away from the scene, she was able to envision bits of his journey through contact with his shoes and toothbrush." A local television station was similarly impressed, airing a report titled, "Psychic Clues Accurate in Case."

Sgt. Jim Squance of the Oxford police is quoted as saying that he "was struck by the similarities" between Renier's description and where Capel was eventually found: "The landmarks were all there ... she said there was a tower with an antenna on top of it." Renier also mentioned stone, a wooded area, barns, and a creek. "We based our search on the information that she gave us, and, as it turns out, she was right on," Squance said. "Professionally, you have to be a little skeptical, using a psychic detective. But personally, when you see the results, you've got to be in awe."

.....<snip>

Missing Alzheimer's patients are almost always found close to home, a fact borne out by statistics and well known to police (and "psychic detectives"). So just about everyone--the Capel family, police, searchers, and Renier--was pretty certain that the eighty-one-year-old Capel was somewhere nearby. All Renier needed to do to be "right on" was describe the immediate area, with such obvious and general features as a creek, trees, a tower with an antenna, and stones.

...<snip>

Renier's "information" simply suggested an area that common sense dictated and where the Oxford police were already searching. Claiming, after the body was found, that in retrospect the psychic "was right on" doesn't cut it. Renier, apparently playing the odds and a pretty obvious guessing game, managed to impress both the police and the general public (through credulous media reports).

(from here)

Which is prety much par for the course - a general description that could be almost anywhere in the country and which would apply to anywhere within miles of where the body was found (ie a mile away and your stil in an area with "stone, a wooded area, barns, and a creek", and then confirmation bias presents it as being the "exact spot".

Absolute nonsense - self serving selective quotation, obsfucation, mis-direction and dishonesty!:mad:

[JonS]

http://skeptoid.com/episodes/4044#

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Alpha

[Wilhammer]

PEM? Psychic Earthbopping Machismo?

[Pak_43]

Also, the mere fact that some effect is obtainable via X doesn't ipso facto rule out that it could indeed be Y which is occurring

Agreed, you'll note I didn't make that point...

Occam's Razor however does mean that it is *more likely* that Psychics use the same techniques as those who replicate their abilities without psychic powers, my original point in the previous post you'll also note...

[John Kettler]

Stalin's Organist,

Reading the same testimonials you did (from her site), I see a bunch where the police said she was instrumental in providing the information that let them crack the case.

"Without Noreen Renier we would not have located Norman Lewis. I'm extremely impressed with her abilities. She told us things that she would have to have been an eyewitness to have known."

— Olin Slaughter, Chief of Police, Williston Police Department Williston Pioneer, June 27, 1996.

There have been cases, by the way, in which psychics did get into trouble for "knowing too much" (the suppressed, known only to the police details) about cases.

"Noreen never could have known this stuff beforehand and she was so accurate it was chilling."

— Retired Lt. Commander. R. Krolak, The Times Union, February 11, 1992

Note well the emphatic "never could have known" as well as the ringing confirmation of the accuracy of her information.

"Noreen's incredible insight helped close our case by providing the macabre details of our victim's murder which, when presented to our suspect, caused him to negotiate a confession. She also identified two other accomplices to the crime."

- Joe Uribe (Montana DCI Agent - Retired)

IOW, she provided such clear, specific details of the nitty gritty of the crime that when confronted with this during interrogation, the suspect broke, figuring the police knew everything.

They don't have to say "psychic abilities" to validate her. All they have to say is that she produced correct information, information unknown to the authorities, which allowed crimes to be solved. So here, we have a former chief of police, a high level officer and a former Montana Department of Criminal Investigation Agent all attesting to her demonstrated accomplishments. Remember, people like her aren't called in until the police have hit a brick wall.

The below illustrates, I think, how disturbing to pragmatic rationalists her work is:

"It was kind of scary when we did find it, and it was almost exactly as she described it. I wouldn't say I'm a total believer, but I don't throw out anything they say."

— Lt. Robert Miller, Port St. Lucie Tribune, May 19, 1991

If she cracked one such "hopeless" case perhaps we could attribute it to luck, but the testimonial page alone indicates way more than that. Further, from the below, it's clear she's doing psychometry (deriving information from an object used or touched by someone of interest) and a form of projected awareness (as victim or perp) she calls remote viewing to obtain her information. Note how she is very careful to minimize front end loading.

http://noreenrenier.com/services/unsolved.htm

Pak_43,

While I agree in general as to the likelihood argument, you have utterly failed to address the point I made about the scientific evidence showing that there are real metallurgical differences between brute force spoon bending and what Geller et al do and have done. Further, the Oxford Math Professor Taylor reports, and shows in his book, numerous examples of utensils bent simply as a result of a Geller radio broadcast. He even has one which took place in a sealed tube! Real science must supply a credible explanation for how such a thing is possible, rather than simply dismiss it as "Impossible!" and therefore unworthy of study.

While it's certainly true that there are frauds and charlatans in psi research, this is not, in and of itself, enough to throw out the baby with the bath water. Nor would I propose to do so with conventional science, with such shames as the Piltdown Man, Java Man, and that Japanese archeologist caught "salting" a site with artifacts, to name but three, on its escutcheon.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Stalins Organ]

rubbish John - you are using confirmation bias and uncritical thinking and I reject your stance as being unscientific and irrational.

You obviosuly didn't bother to read the quote I gave about what REALLY happened or you would never have persisted with this.

[Pak_43]

While I agree in general as to the likelihood argument, you have utterly failed to address the point I made about the scientific evidence showing that there are real metallurgical differences between brute force spoon bending and what Geller et al do and have done. Further, the Oxford Math Professor Taylor reports, and shows in his book, numerous examples of utensils bent simply as a result of a Geller radio broadcast. He even has one which took place in a sealed tube! Real science must supply a credible explanation for how such a thing is possible, rather than simply dismiss it as "Impossible!" and therefore unworthy of study.

I failed to address your point, because I'm not interested in debating it, the (last) point I made was the complete inappropriateness of your use of Occam's Razor. Occam's Razor actually supports the "no-psi" approach given that there is ample proof that any psychic phenomenon can be replicated with ordinary, non-psychic techniques...

I strongly urge you to research Mr Taylor a bit more thoroughly before you put him up as an expert witness for Mr Gellers abilities. Consider that a bit of friendly advice and a further highlight of your slapdash, hurried research (back to my first point...)

And once again... the plural of anecdote is not data...

[Wicky]

Psychics/ RVs 0

Ski Shop Owner 1

[Stalins Organ]

From the E-skeptic magazine:

Two years ago we reported on the brilliant exposé by Mark Bellinghaus of a Marilyn Monroe hoax perpetrated at the Queen Mary in Long Beach, California, where included in a display of the movie star’s personal items were hair curlers. As Bellinghaus reported, famed psychic James Van Praagh used those curlers (and the blond hair in them) to make contact with Marilyn, and he even carried on a conversation with her on the national television show Entertainment Tonight. Well, Bellinghaus tracked down the origin of those curlers through their maker, Clairol. It turns out that those curlers were first manufactured in 1974, twelve years after Marilyn died, so it would be interesting to know just who Van Praagh was talking to! Perhaps there are Marilyn Monroe impersonators on the other side as well.

Psychics are not the only ones trying to cash in on Marilyn’s irresistible fame. Last April a news story broke about a newly surfaced Marilyn Monroe sex tape (what else?), which was also swiftly debunked by Mark Bellinghaus as yet another fake.

[John Kettler]

Stalin's Organist,

It is a routinely taught matter in metaphysical and certain religious circles that prankster and malevolent entities in the lower astral can and will screw with you if you don't take proper precautions. ISTR Yogananda writes about his own such scary experience as a yoga student in AUTOBIOGRAPHY OF A YOGI. Would further observe that wishful thinking and the pressure to deliver the goods don't help the contact process, either. This is why some metaphysical groups flatly forbid charging for psychic services, seeing this as an outright contaminant of the process and a perversion of the gift.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Wicky]

Cross thread

http://www.viser.net/~charking/alert.html

Emails are $5.00 per month and a pamphlet cost $30.00 including one month of emails, International orders add $3.00 for mailing.

This is why some metaphysical groups flatly forbid charging for psychic services, seeing this as an outright contaminant of the process and a perversion of the gift.

Regards,

John Kettler

[JonS]