Puzzling research advances

[Col. Kurtz]

I have a newbie query about research. I am playing a game in which I have purchased level 2 advances in jet tech and heavy tanks. Imagine my surprise when in the space of a few turns both research levels advanced to level 3. Why did this happen? Are there other quirks in research that I should be aware of?

[Sombra]

Every chit you buy represents a 5% chance of advance per turn. Though you have been lucky simply. Worth to know is the catch up system: If the enemy is more advanced in a field you are researching you will get research bonus again 5% per level difference

[pzgndr]

Sombra, not quite. Research chances decrease as you progress to higher tech levels. 5-4-3-2-1 is the rule. 5% per chit per turn to advance to level 1, 4% to level 2, etc.

The catch-up bonus for spying/espionage is based on the tech level difference. Say you have L1 and your opponent has L3. The difference is 2. So your chance of advancing to L2 is 4% + 2% = 6%.

Since every chit has a chance of returning an advance each turn, it's not uncommon to have advances in multiple tech areas in the same turn. Nor is it uncommon to have occassional rapid sequential advances, like L2 on one turn and then L3 on the very next turn. Anything is possible. Of course, for all the times you get good luck there will be periods of very bad luck.

[Sombra]

Thanks pzgndr for the correction: The catch up bonus is really so small ????

[Feldtrompeter]

Hi pzgndr

I think your example is not correct.

If you have 1 chit in a research category and you have Lv1 and your opponent Lv3 in the same category, your chance of advancing to the second Lv is:

5% - 1% + 3% = 7%

You do not get a systematic decrease in research like you stated. It all depends on the opponent's Lv and your own Lv.

This is acording to the German manual.

Feldtrompeter

[pzgndr]

Changes Made For v1.06 (December 3, 2002)

Normalized research via 5->4->3->2->1 slow down and relationship with enemy research levels to represent captured equipment, spying, etc.

** New Formula **

(5% + highest enemy level - current level) * applicable chits

Restriction: highest enemy level - current level > 0

The only minor correction to the New Formula is to clarify that 5% is only for level 1. Then it drops to 4, 3, 2, 1. The German version of the game is the same.

You guys may be reading the original version of the User Manual which is no longer correct. Please refer to the User Manual Updates and Errata file, the SC Version Changes file, and the Strategy Guide.

[Terif]

If you have a look at the "User Manual Updates and Errata.txt":

NEW RESEARCH FORMULA

(5% + highest enemy level - current level) * applicable chits in category

...

If you have 1 chit in Jets with level 1 and your enemy has Level-0 then:

(5% + 0 - 1)) * 1 = 4% chance

Now if you have 1 chit in Jets with Level-1 and your enemy has Level-5 then:

(5% + 5 - 1) * 1 = 9% chance

Then you can see:

Pzgndr is right in the first part:

If the enemy is at the same or lower level, then research is 5,4,3,2,1 % per chit. E.g. from Lv4 to Lv5 each chit provides a 1% chance/turn to reach Lv5.

With the second part Feldtrompeter is right:

If the enemy has a higher level, then you get a huge research bonus. You now have a base chance of 5 % (instead of 5,4,3,2,1) + 1% for each level difference (even from Lv 4 to 5 !). At low tech levels it makes not much difference, but at high tech levels it greatly increases your chances to reach the next advance.

E.g. With the enemy already at Lv5:

- Level 4 -> 5 you have now a chance of 5 + 1 = 6 % per chit. (instead of only 1 % when the other one is not more advanced than you !)

- Level 3 -> 4 chance is 5 + 2 = 7 %/chit etc.

This is the "catch-up effect". If your enemy is more advanced, you can be sure to reach the same tech level within only a couple of turns while your opponent has only a small chance to reach the next level.

You dont need to invest much, 3 chits are usually enough to catch up very soon (minimum chance is 18%/turn in this case). So you dont need to fear to fall too much behind in research - your enemy can only reach a temporary advantage until you will catch up.

[ April 02, 2004, 11:15 AM: Message edited by: Terif ]

[pzgndr]

Well Terif, we're both wrong. I just checked this out and found a bug. A bug! :mad: Normalization is NOT highest enemy level - current level; it is just the highest enemy level. As long as the difference is > 0.

In a case where one country has current level 1 and the highest enemy level is 2, the normalization is 2 and not 1. The chance is therefore 4% + 2% = 6%. The 5-4-3-2-1 rule does apply. The normalization also applies, but at a slightly higher value than defined by the formula. So call it a catch-up bonus bonus? Then it's not a bug; it's a "feature."

[SeaMonkey]

I don't care what you guys call it! All I know is once again my beloved Luftwaffe is being hammered by UK jets level 2 when I've had 3 chits (Terif recommendation)in jets for almost 2 years without an advance. I can't even get a decent result using my level 2 AA city defense bug with my attacking Fliegerkorps. Time to circle the wagons around my 2 luftflottes with 4 experience, backed with 4 exp. Rommel. You just gotta luv this game.

[Shaka of Carthage]

SeaMonkey

Your problem is what mathematicians call "standard deviation". Or what normal people call ****ty luck. You gotta learn to roll them bones better.

[jon_j_rambo]

Bottom Line: Listen to Terif.

SeaMonkeySpank --- It's called bad luck.

[SeaMonkey]

Actually Shaka I've had more than my share of luck in the many SC episodes of the past 18 months. I just occasionally like to exercise my humanity by bitching about it when its bad and its a good time to enumerate the randomness that SC is.....and we all know we love it.

[SeaMonkey]

Right you are Rambonerless and I even take a few ques from you also. There is much comraderie risen from the sharing of this simple yet complex experience that SC is and I'm beholden to you all for "one of the little enhancements of life".

[kossuth]

Well i agrees with the seamonkey that the

random rally sucks.

What about this. 5 ****s in airtech starting from -39 to -47, (i had 5 late -40). In -47 he had lvl 3 and i still got lvl 0.

Another area i had one chit and got up to lvl 5 very easy.

What i mean is that is something wrong in the aligorith (or what is actually is). My experience is that the ai randomize what tech you will get lucky in and then it does not matter what you will do.

My friend and i use the strategy, only one chit . If you a lucky you have lvl 5. If not lucky, it wont matter if you have 5 or 1 chit.

cuz my exp is that you can not boost it with more chits. (it works as good with one as with several)

[Terif]

Originally posted by pzgndr:

Well Terif, we're both wrong. I just checked this out and found a bug. A bug! :mad: Normalization is NOT highest enemy level - current level; it is just the highest enemy level. As long as the difference is > 0.

In a case where one country has current level 1 and the highest enemy level is 2, the normalization is 2 and not 1. The chance is therefore 4% + 2% = 6%. The 5-4-3-2-1 rule does apply. The normalization also applies, but at a slightly higher value than defined by the formula. So call it a catch-up bonus bonus? Then it's not a bug; it's a "feature."

- You cant test/check it in SC since you dont see the research percentages. It is only possible to look at the formulas and Huberts comments.

- Normalization (5-4-3-2-1) only applies at normal research. When the enemy is ahead in research, then it doesnt apply. Now you have a base chance of 5 % + 1% per each tech level difference. Therefore your chance from Lv 1 -> Lv2 (with the enemy already at Lv2) is:

5 % (base chance) + 2-1 (highest enemy lv - your current lv) = 5 + 1 = 6

The result is the same as in your example but calculated with the official formula .

- so there is no bug or hidden feature .

The catch up effect speeds up your research a lot - compared to normal research - expecially at higher levels (normal research: only 1 % ; 2 %... But with catch up you have a minimum chance of 6 % and higher).

[pzgndr]

You cant test/check it in SC since you dont see the research percentages

Well, yes I can. But only because Hubert provided me some tools to help with betatesting. I can't go into details, but I'll show you an example of tracking research:

03/08/1942

USA

Current Level(JA): 1 Highest Enemy Level: 2 Normalization: 2 Random(%): 0.23 (%): 0.06

Here's the case where USA has level 1, Germany has level 2. Note the Normalization is 2, not 1. The % is 6, meaning 4 + 2, not 5 + 1. The 23% was the random roll for the turn. 23 > 6, so no tech advance that turn.

Looking back, I'm surprised none of us caught this before. I guess I was content to see normalization where I expected to see it and didn't check the math. Oh well.

Anyway, how I just explained it is how it's actually happening in the game. 5-4-3-2-1 rule applies. Normalization is the highest enemy level. Since the enemy research bonus increases at the higher levels, I guess you can rationalize this as saying intelligence gathering becomes more effective as the war progresses? Just consider it a "feature."

[Feldtrompeter]

Hi Terif and pzgndr

As far as I have understood you you both are saying the same thing just with a different formular.

pzgndr uses the formular for tech advances:

Lv0 - Lv1: 5%

Lv1 - Lv2: 4%

Lv2 - Lv3: 3%

Lv3 - Lv4: 2%

Lv4 - Lv5: 1%

On top of this 5-4-3-2-1 rule pzgndr adds a "normalization" which is the highest tech level of the enemy for the tech field concerned.

This is the VERY SAME formular that Terif uses only written in a different form:

5% base chance - own Lv + highest enemy Lv.

If you calculate the first two addends of the formular you have pzgndr's 5-4-3-2-1 rule and the last addend is his "normalization".

So both ways lead to the same value for the research chance.

In his example some post above pzgndr made the mistake to use his 5-4-3-2-1 rule and then to add the difference (highest enemy Lv - own Lv) to that value instead of only adding the "highest enemy Lv" as Terif's formular would have told him to do.

Feldtrompeter

[pzgndr]

So both ways lead to the same value for the research chance.

Good point. Say you're at L3 and the enemy is at L4. The game code is saying the chance is 2 + 4 = 6, as I described.

Terif is saying normalization does not apply when the enemy is ahead, and that the modified formula is correct, ie 5 + 1 = 6.

I tried a couple other examples and the math still comes out the same, so it really doesn't matter.

But the issue remains that the catch-up bonus is higher than it could be. Question is whether it should be lower for SC2 or not. Taken literally using the 5-4-3-2-1 rule and the modification formula, the above example should be 2 + 1 = 3, NOT 6. Do folks prefer a quicker catch-up or a slower catch-up? An option to have the modification on/off can also be considered.

[Terif]

Yep, only two different ways to describe the same (mathematical). So you can choose which formula to use - the result is the same.

As far as I can see (Pzgndr´s described test didn´t say something else) in the end the official formula is correct - no hidden feature or bug .

Since the official formula is pretty clear, I also dont think Hubert intended the catch-up to be lower, obviously it is how he wanted it to be.

And personally I think it is good to have a relativly high chance to catch-up. This way luck is not that important as it would be if the opponent had no chance to reach the same tech level within a reasonable amount of time. 1-2 lucky breaktroughs would mean nearly game over for the enemy if he would not have the possibility to catch-up. But with catch-up he has only to retreat for some turns, reorganize, research and then come back to the battlefield...

For the game it is better to have only a small luck factor, how it is now - my personal opinion, others may see it different .

[ April 03, 2004, 10:24 AM: Message edited by: Terif ]

[zappsweden]

I was against the catch-up from the beginning, still am.

It would be much more interesting with only

Lv0 - Lv1: 5%

Lv1 - Lv2: 4%

Lv2 - Lv3: 3%

Lv3 - Lv4: 2%

Lv4 - Lv5: 1%

system and no catch-up bonuses. The 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 system will itself add catch-up and enough catch-up. Would be better if someone actually could HAVE a L4 vs L2 lead for alot of turns without allowing enemy to even out too fast.

In some cases, catch-up has provided some strange rule of thumbs like "do not research what u cannot afford give to your enemy". For example, UK must be cautious about Jet and Long-range early on. With UK Jet L3 and UK Long L3 things will not look nice for Russia when barbarossa begin, since Germany then also got the tech.

[Desert Dave]

As originally posted by zappsweden:

In some cases, catch-up has provided some strange rule of thumbs like "do not research what u cannot afford give to your enemy".

But, this seems MORE realistic, given that Scientific sorts do not keep secrets so well.

They do the dreaming and theoretical research, and usually share it around the wide World with other Scientists, EVEN in times of war.

(Their rationale often is... KNOWLEDGE does not only belong to a particular "State" among many; rather, it belongs to ALL of Humankind, for good or ill... IE, "progress" is sterile & neutral in and of itself, and requires whimsical humans to choose when and how it is actualized and utilized, presumabaly to improve Civilization in all manner of ways, etc, etc.)

Which is why the Military took charge of the atomic testing down here in Los Alamos, New Mexico... in hopes of putting a lid on the excited activities there.

Not to say Scientists aren't ALSO Nation-patriotic, merely that their kind of work is generally known for quite some time... long BEFORE a war breaks out, and all scientists know what to do, and where to go next in almost every researched area.

**Another way to do this, as has been suggested by many, is to introduce "intelligence" so that it is more VARIABLE when you ARE trying to catch up to another Power's research achievements.

[zappsweden]

Immer Etwas:

In real WW2, Germany had still much better tanks than USA and UK. This does not happen in SC. In SC, the techs that have gone far will get caught up somewhere in 1942-1943 i.e too fast.

Long-term tech strategy does not exist because the pay-off is too short in time.

[Friendly Fire]

I personally like the catch up rule, it help reduce the overall impact of a tech superiority, which I believe reduces the need for good generalship. Also it is very realistic, you can bet the remains of the fast jet that just got shot down are going to be sent back for analysis... just my2c

[Desert Dave]

Immer Etwas:

In real WW2, Germany had still much better tanks than USA and UK. This does not happen in SC. In SC, the techs that have gone far will get caught up somewhere in 1942-1943 i.e too fast.

Good point zapp, and perhaps this will be solved if we get some sort of editable "cap" on just how far each nation migh go in EACH researched area.

For example, USA (... with those "tin-can" Shermans... as the Germans dryly described them) might ONLY be able to achieve L2 or maybe L3 (earlier introduction of those later US models which WERE quite potent) tanks... maximum.

Germany could be allowed (... again, as an editable feature) to achieve L5.

Italy L1, France L3, Russia L4, etc, as per each game-table warrior's perceived military history.

Then you would NEVER have the admittedly strange situation where American tanks could slug it out on a comparable basis with those clanking "monster" tanks that Germany built.

[Feldtrompeter]

I think there are research fields where you easily can spy out your opponent and there are other fields where you cannot spy that much.

Take i.e. rocket research done by the Germans or jets or subs. These are research areas where you hardly can take a look on what the enemy does and then go ahead and copy it easily.

In other research branches like anti-tank or heavy tank research it is easier to send some of the enemy's stuff you captured back to your scientists and develop something similar in quite a short time. (The Germans thought on copying the T-34 when it was first seen on the eastern front)

So the current system gives reasonable results for the tech that can be copied easily and for the other tech fields it doesn't.

Feldtrompeter