Random Reinforcement Scenarios

[gambler]

Greetings all. I'm sure this isn't a new idea, but it came to me while playing around with the CMBB scenario editor and remembering a campaign game in "Starfleet Battles" (board ship to ship game based loosely on Star Trek:TOS) where a large ship fought a series of individual battles. The interesting thing was that the opposing force was usually small to start with, but every few turns, a card was drawn from a standard deck and this determined what reinforcement was brought in by the enemy. This led to a different feel in each battle.

So I had the thought. Why not do something similar for CM? Specifically, create a system of random reinforcements into an area. This is easy enough to do, just create numerous small reinforcement groups consistent with a larger organization (Regiment for instance) that all are available on Turn 2, but have a very low chance of appearing individually. As an example, I created a meeting engagement on a randomly determined map with four "dynamic" flags as a testbed for the concept. Initially, only a recon group was present on the map, with 15 or so reinforcement groups available for each side. I discovered I may have gone a bit overboard with armor and made the 'specials' (AA groups, spotters for heavy artillery, etc) too common, but it definitely had a potentially fun feel to it. I think I need to cut some of the groups back from the 10% arrival rate to maybe 5% since the number of reinforcements initially does end up rather quick for the concept I was going for (a slow buildup allowing for some coherence of plan even if you're never sure what you'll get next).

In any event, I think this could be a fun PBEM game for those who want something a bit different and don't mind the fact that some games might have all the luck going one way where one side might get Tigers on the 2nd turn, while the other doesn't get armor for most of the game. I'm going to try to mix in most of the unique weapons, but at very low odds, so when they're received they should be fun to play with.

It definitely had an almost spooky feel when I started the game, knowing that the area was almost empty but would be filling up... and I had no idea what I might be going against. Needs quite a bit of fine tuning, but thought I'd drop this out to folks in case they want to incorporate the idea in their own scenarios. I may have one to playtest by the weekend (alongside a more 'historical' one).

Thoughts? Or better yet, has anyone else done this and created a 'classic' that I can just download?

[Hans]

Something similiar has been done in the past for CMBO. A random reinforcement game is also going to be available in a few days as I'm nearly completion on, Small Battles, Encounter Norway, which uses just such a system. Each side starts with a very small force and then the twenty reinforcements slots are all filled but the percentage chance of them showing up is very low.

Oh if you'd like to play test it give me an email

Wayne100@emirates.net.ae

[Joachim]

It is also a good idea to replace QBs vs the AI. Using statistical formulas or good guessing, you can balance the whole thing but use some less common equipment (or equipment seldomly picked by the AI).

It would be interesting if AI forces coming in in driblets would improve AI tactics. No more buching up of infantry, tanks spread out in plts that...

Gruß

Joachim

[Hans]

Joachim I've noticed that this does work to give the appearance of a column or attack waves.

Bringing in a column of vehicles on a road by having them come in 1 at time works too.

[gambler]

Hans, since I don't have CMBO I wouldn't be able to playtest your scenario. If you mean mine, then I'll pass it along once it's more polished.

Joachim: I wasn't pleased with the rate of reinforcements (too quick) in my first game so I didn't pay too much attention to the tactics. Combining "Extreme FOW" with this certainly led to the recon group having an important role, as well as securing high ground. I did notice that the enemy was having me for lunch but that may have been because they got Tigers and both groups of Stugs within the first few turns. I'm thinking both sides should get one full company of Infantry with decent odds of arriving (20-25%) to provide support weapons and a higher level HQ that can be moved where needed, a few platoons of different infantry types, a couple pioneer platoons all at about 10%. Armor companies (including anti-tank) will range from 3-8% dependant on rarity in the area, and the rest (air support, artillery spotters, flamethrowers, sharpshooters, mortars, MGs, AA, ATG, etc) at 2-4%.

This way the battle will most likely be infantry heavy, with a small amount of armor and a couple of goodies to play with.

[Joachim]

Originally posted by gambler:

Hans, since I don't have CMBO I wouldn't be able to playtest your scenario. If you mean mine, then I'll pass it along once it's more polished.

Joachim: I wasn't pleased with the rate of reinforcements (too quick) in my first game so I didn't pay too much attention to the tactics. Combining "Extreme FOW" with this certainly led to the recon group having an important role, as well as securing high ground. I did notice that the enemy was having me for lunch but that may have been because they got Tigers and both groups of Stugs within the first few turns. I'm thinking both sides should get one full company of Infantry with decent odds of arriving (20-25%) to provide support weapons and a higher level HQ that can be moved where needed, a few platoons of different infantry types, a couple pioneer platoons all at about 10%. Armor companies (including anti-tank) will range from 3-8% dependant on rarity in the area, and the rest (air support, artillery spotters, flamethrowers, sharpshooters, mortars, MGs, AA, ATG, etc) at 2-4%.

This way the battle will most likely be infantry heavy, with a small amount of armor and a couple of goodies to play with.

I'd make pretty sure (at least some) AA is in place before the air support arrives. Same goes for ATGs (or TDs) before the armor arrives. This way you might force players to keep their armor in reserve waiting for more... or use it to gain an advantage before the enemy gets his. This might balance it a bit more.

Add a few higher HQs or wpns plts to your reinforcements. Eg Reinf 1 is HQ+1+4 plt, Reinf 2 is plt 2, reinf 3 is plt 3. Reinf 2 should arrive first (in most cases), plt 3 is rear guard of the Co.

Gruß

Joachim

[ April 06, 2004, 11:04 AM: Message edited by: Joachim ]

[WarHawk]

I like the Idea of Random re-enforcements. I would like to see some of the scenarios already made have a scecond scenario added with this option added. This would give more of a challenge in PBEM when both players know the scenario.

Random re-enforcements realisticly models an area command at higer HQ. One could never count on what he could get. What he would get what was available at hand unless it was a major operation and part of the over all operation as follow on forces to explote what has been achieved. Just my 2 cents.

WarKawk

[Hans]

The only problem with random re-enforcements is that CM doesn't have a cut off function. That means you'll get reinforcments on the last turn or not at all - I find that some players - despite being warned about this method, find this unacceptable.

Warhawk, I've send you a random scenario, Small Battles, Encounter Norway

[jbertles]

The old Harpoon naval game had a great system of percentage-based force appearance.

- A certain task force is given an initial % to appear or not

- that task force also had a % value of when it might show up (I don't remember quite how that was implemented)

- each individual ship in that task group is also given a % to appear or not

- That task force is then given a single or multiple number of places (which you plot) where it might appear - for example 10% in one spot; 50% in a different spot: adding up to (of course) 100%. So conceivably you might have up to 100 possible points where the group may appear, at 1% each point

The effect is darn close to randomization, but the designer can be very canny about it.

For example, translating this system to CM, you could have:

a reinforcement force that has a 20% chance of even showing up or not;

Just when that force shows up is variable and to a certain extent randomized;

If that reinforcment force does show up, the composition of the force is variable, eg, 1 panther at 50%, 2 MkIVs at 70% each, a Maus armed with twin 128mm turrets at 1%, etc.;

That force could have a 50% chance of showing up where it should, on a road heading to the German lines, but also a 23% chance of showing up on the west flank, 23% on the east flank, and 4% chance of showing up right in the rear of the allies.

Among other things, this variable % setting means that even designers can have fun and surprising games against the AI. Also, replayability is drastically increased.

[gambler]

jbertles: Agreed. I like the flexibility of the system right now but a few more items would make it even better. For instance I was thinking about recreating a battle along the Dnepr where the Russians used a paradrop behind enemy lines (rather poorly I might add).

Currently, you can give the chance of the squad coming down a low percentage to give uncertainty that they'll come in, but eventually a human opponent would know where the drop would occur and leave a reserve to at the very least, observe the spot.

You could also drop the percentage even lower and make two forces, or three, etc, that could drop, to add more uncertainty. What would be the most flexible would be the current system with a 'reinforcement zone' that could allow the reinforcements to come in anywhere within it. The current system probably allows most events to be replicated, but sometimes with work that could be eliminated by making this area just a tad more flexible.

Back to the scenario I was creating... I finally created a map I liked (flipped through random maps until one grabbed my attention and then modified it), added four dynamic flags with a fairly low value (150 points) to encourage each side to try to destroy the enemy force as a major objective, fiddled with the reinforcements, and tried it out.

The game's been a blast and I'm about halfway through at the moment. Started nice and slow, the first contacts were small skirmishes, and every couple of turns new reinforcements showed up (perhaps a bit more quickly than they should, I'll tweak it some more) and by Turn 10 the action was hot, heavy and deadly.

[dieseltaylor]

Sounds good - my your experimentation be successful ; )

[Mad Russian]

Originally posted by gambler:

I think I need to cut some of the groups back from the 10% arrival rate to maybe 5% since the number of reinforcements initially does end up rather quick for the concept I was going for (a slow buildup allowing for some coherence of plan even if you're never sure what you'll get next).

In any event, I think this could be a fun PBEM game for those who want something a bit different and don't mind the fact that some games might have all the luck going one way where one side might get Tigers on the 2nd turn, while the other doesn't get armor for most of the game. I'm going to try to mix in most of the unique weapons, but at very low odds, so when they're received they should be fun to play with.

Thoughts? Or better yet, has anyone else done this and created a 'classic' that I can just download?

I have done extensive research into the variability of arriving reinforcements. You will have them piling up until you go down to 2% of arrival chances. Then there is a chance that they may not arrive at all. Which is what you are after. You want some of them to not arrive and others to arrive on a wildly random schedule. Try either 1 or 2% reinforcement percentages I think they will take you where you want to go. No I didn't make a scenario up with them I just wanted to know what I was dealing with.

Panther Commander

[Pzman]

I don't know PC, I played around with it, although only limitedly, and even at 40-30% chance can delay reinforcements by 6-10 turns. That said, I would have to play around with it more to find out for sure.

[Mad Russian]

Originally posted by Panzerman:

I don't know PC, I played around with it, although only limitedly, and even at 40-30% chance can delay reinforcements by 6-10 turns. That said, I would have to play around with it more to find out for sure.

My tests showed that you don't actually lose a reinforcement until you get down to the 2% number.

Panther Commander

[Joachim]

Originally posted by Panther Commander:

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Panzerman:

I don't know PC, I played around with it, although only limitedly, and even at 40-30% chance can delay reinforcements by 6-10 turns. That said, I would have to play around with it more to find out for sure.

My tests showed that you don't actually lose a reinforcement until you get down to the 2% number.

Panther Commander </font>

[Mad Russian]

Originally posted by Joachim:

[/qb]

No need to test - grab a statistics book. The probability for a reinforcement due in turn t1 at p % to have not arrived until turn t2 is

(1-p)^(t2+1-t1)

E.g. a reinforcemnt with 30% prob due in turn 11 will have arrived in turn 21 with a prob of about 80%. A 2% reinforcment wil arrive within 21 turns with a likelihood of about 35%. For 1% it is only 19% to arrive within 21 turns.

Gruß

Joachim [/QB]

I could have sworn that was what I said...

Wasn't it? :confused:

Well I'm sure it was something like that if it wasn't EXACTLY what I said... :cool:

Panther Commander

[Joachim]

PC,

for short scens you may have said the same...

for a 70+monster scen reinforcements arriving in turn 14 at 10% will appear with 99%. In a 25 turn scen, I would not bet on its arrival.

Especially if you use lots of reinforcements balancing the scen will only be able by formulae

Gruß

Joachim

[ April 28, 2004, 06:37 AM: Message edited by: Joachim ]

[Mad Russian]

Originally posted by Joachim:

PC,

for short scens you may have said the same...

for a 70+monster scen reinforcements arriving in turn 14 at 10% will appear with 99%. In a 25 turn scen, I would not bet on its arrival.

Especially if you use lots of reinforcements balancing the scen will only be able by formulae

Gruß

Joachim

Just joking with you. All I did was test out what your statistics show. Too bad I couldn't have gone the statistical route and saved myself some time.

However, the tests showed that you didn't lose reinforcements until you got down to the 2% range. No matter how short the scenario. You may well get them later than they can do you any good but they are coming. At least that is what I remember. I did the tests about a year ago.

Panther Commander

[Joachim]

IIRC you can't enter any number ofr the prob but 1, 2, 5, 10, 15, ...

The probability for losing reinforcements drops dramatically from 5 to 2. With 5% there is about 80% probability to show up after 30 turns. With 2% it is just 26%.

Dunno how you tested, but the involved probabilities cry for at least 20 observations (aka replays or using lots of reinforcements with the same prob in one scen). If you did only 5 observations, I'd expect your results. With 20, they are still pretty likely.

Or BFC tinkered with that. In a current PBEM I am waiting for 6 turns for my most important reinforcements. With them I could overrunn the enemy now that I know where his amror is. But he play US - and as we all know, BFC is heavily biased towards the Allies .

Gruß

Joachim

[Sanok]

Originally posted by Hans:

I've send you a random scenario, Small Battles, Encounter Norway

Will you please send it to me as well? Thank you.

sanok29@yahoo.com