very off topic: China/Taiwan

[Lorak]

Greetings,

If this is too far off just tell me to shove off. no hard feelings.

But as a lot of military buffs are here I thought I'd pose a question and maybe get a decent discussion going to pass the time. With the Taiwan elections comming today and China's verbal threats ( not that I assume war is comming) I was wondering If any of you had thoughts concerning the logistics involved if a skirmish did break out. With the Cold war and the USSR this wasn't as much of a factor, due to NATO's being right at the front. An altercation half a world away would be a little tricky (as we saw in the massive airlift in the Gulf,which wasn't as far).

any Comments?

if not thats cool too.

Lorak

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This is my rifle. There are many like it, but this one is mine. It is my life. Without my rifle I am useless. Without me, my rifle is useless...

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[Guest Captain Foobar]

Sounds like a nightmare to me. I just hope that all these Far East land conflicts are settled peacefully, and before China catches up in the high tech nuclear areas.They might be far less willing to negotiate then.

China is a lot closer to accomplishing these things, thanks to their transactions and agreements with the DNC, and Clinton/Gore campaigns.

[SS_PanzerLeader]

I by no means profess to be any kind of military expert but my gut tells me that taking on China would be a mistake. Taking on a country that size would be a major drain ont he country in manpower and money, If a large scale conflict did arise I also believe that we would be more susceptible to terrorism . No facts here just opinion

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SS_PanzerLeader.......out

[This message has been edited by SS_PanzerLeader (edited 03-17-2000).]

[Mark IV]

Greetings all, it's nice to be back.

I think Taiwan holds all the non-nuclear cards in a real shooting engagement right now and China knows it.

The US has 7th fleet on tap, and would probably be limited to air and naval support in a tripwire scenario. Over time this can all change but in the context of this election there wouldn't be time, or probably the need, for significant US ground forces. China doesn't appear to have sufficient amphibious capability to go in on the ground in the face of Taiwanese/US resistance.

To be sure ROC has subs and ships, but the Pacific is still an American pond in tactical terms and a Chinese blockade would be in name only if things got serious. If shooting started now, look for a mostly symbolic air and missile war in the short run, with dark threats all 'round. Phase 2 could be either really serious, or the Chinese could use their celebrated patience and some more campaign contributions to "buy" Taiwan back in the future.

[Fionn]

I once wargamed a China vs Taiwan scenario as Commander of Chinese Forces ( it was a PBEM campaign).

Anyways I managed to establish three bridgeheads in Taiwan ( one sacrificial to take the heat off my two main landing zones) but could only do so be judicious mobilisation of civilian transportation assets and the capture of a substantial port allowing me to utilise these civie boats to offload at a port (they were incapable of offloading onto a beach ;( ).

My guess is we'll simply see a lot more shelling of the Taiwanese islands a couple of clicks off the Chinese coastline and, at most, a little invasion of those islands as a demonstration ( I seriously doubt that any invasion of even these tiny islands will be mounted unless China is really pushed).

China has too much to lose and still hasn't sufficiently brought economic benefits to its western provinces for it to start a war of aggression AND survive the economic fallout of such a war.

In purely military terms I don't think it would be able to supply its forces in Taiwan even if it could effect a landing although the question of whether or not the US would commit to war over a Chinese invasion is intriguing.

|If I was the Chinese premier I'd "test the waters" by invading one or two tiny Taiwanese islands near the coast and seeing what the US reaction was.. If there was none then I might begin planning an invasion of Taiwan itself. If there was a reaction then things would get very complicated very quickly.

[Lorak]

Good responses. I brought this topic up because a China dissident told the US that China was going to invade.. They were just looking for an excuse to explaine it to their people. I agree also this is most likely more popaganda to test the waters so to speak, but I found it interesting. I agree that China is in no shape to invade at this point and if they decided they had to would most likely take the small islands, as Fionn suggested. They could then judge the west resolve. Much like Hitler did with his first operations (woohoo! there is a link to CM ) I believe that China will eventualy mount an operation, but will hold off for a couple years until they are in a better position to do so.

Just my .02

Lorak

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This is my rifle. There are many like it, but this one is mine. It is my life. Without my rifle I am useless. Without me, my rifle is useless...

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[SS_PanzerLeader]

HEHE Suddaam tested the waters in KUwait

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SS_PanzerLeader.......out

[iggi]

If I were the chinese I would be betting big time on the fact that Clinton will not take China on. There's no math to back it up. He was willing to jump on Yugoslavia cause he had all of Europe(almost hehe), with him.

Do you think that Clinton the draft dodger has the ba..will to take on such an uncertain threat so far away and so expensive? Taiwan will go the way of Chechyna.

[Guest gyrene251]

This type of rhetoric happens everytime there is an election in Taiwan. I don't see China committing at this time.

If she invades it will be during an off year and she will not boast of such a thing before doing so.

Her navy better be up to par. The US Pacific fleet is a formidable one.

[Mark IV]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>If I was the Chinese premier I'd "test the waters" by invading one or two tiny Taiwanese islands near the coast and seeing what the US reaction was.. If there was none then I might begin planning an invasion of Taiwan itself. If there was a reaction then things would get very complicated very quickly.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I think we're all glad that Fionn's not Chinese . He'd probably be slipping hordes of infantry into California ahead of time now, for an advanced ambush... wait a minute... hmmm .

As a response to their last test, we sailed the 7th through the straits. Resolve tested, resolve demonstrated. So they will keep probing and pushing until the day we don't demonstrate the resolve.

While it's tempting to think Clinton would write the island off, it would virtually ensure a Republican victory in November. And NEVER state that Clinton does not have balls (hell, there are more eyewitnesses to his than to any other Presidents' ). His whole political life demonstrates an acumen for bold, even outrageous gambles. He has shown no reluctance to send servicemen into dangerous places for far less reason.

If China thinks he's indebted to them, they underestimate him; he'd damn sure rather knife someone 5000 miles away than the people he's counting on for his post-Presidential plans. Not to mention legal funding. The timing is way wrong for a major Chinese play.

[Black Sabot]

I once found a web site detailing the military match-up between the PRC and the ROC. It was divided between air, land, and naval forces and described each weapon system in great detail.

The impression that i got was that the PRC has a distinct advantage in all 3 areas. This advantage came from either a technological edge or from sheer weight of numbers.

Mark IV is right about the PRC's lack of an amphibious capability and this alone is what saves the ROC from invasion ( Just like the English channel saved the British after the fall of France). If by some miracle the Formosa straits parted and was replaced by a 100-mile wide land bridge then the ROC would be SOL.

Damm, i wish i could remember the web address. Has anyone heard of it?

[Schrullenhaft]

As vehemently pronounced as the mainland Chinese "warnings" are to Taiwan about reunification and the current elections; it just amounts to a lot of hot air. These warnings are SOP for the Communist govt. , but it gives them the air of a "play ground bully" in Western media. It definitely gives the appearance that the vocal hard-line communists of the mainland bureacracy are still living in 1949. That's not to say that China won't take a far more patient approach to "reunification". However, as unsubtle and clumsy as it is, they want to influence the Taiwanese vote so that reunification doesn't become a more and more distant dream.

In terms of conventional forces Taiwan has China beat quite handily. Taiwan has qualitatively superior conventional forces which are quite a bit more modern and better trained than their mainland counterparts. And as previously mentioned, China couldn't maintain a sizeable invasion force logistically, let alone actually put one ashore in significant numbers. Heck, the PLA are lucky if they can project power beyond an interior province (this is however changing, as China continues to acquire more modern weaponry and develop a "professional" military). I think that the biggest military threat that mainland China could wield against Taiwan would be ballistic missiles (conventional/chemical/nuclear ?). Around '96 ('95 ? can't exactly remember) or so tensions were heightened in the Formosa Strait when China conducted naval exercises & launched a couple of ballistic missles in the direction of Taiwan (to, uh... influence another upcoming presidential election). The US 7th Fleet was operating in the vicinity with two carrier battlegroups - obstensibly observing the Chinese naval maneauvers.

Despite Clinton's image as a "presidential embarrasement", I believe that he would commit US forces in the event that China invaded Taiwan. Now if China only invaded the Taiwanese islands that are only several miles off the mainland shore, then that is a different matter. To my knowledge, the islands are sparsely populated - Taiwanese military garrisons seem to be their main inhabitants. Theoretically I could see the Communist govt. invading these islands (and winning, which is quite possible in this limited scenario) and just stopping at that. The effect it would have on Taiwan would be significant to say the least. It would be a large political gamble for the Chinese since they would probably be roundly denounced for such an action, but I'd guess that many hard-line members of China's govt. could easily justify the short term outcry for the long term political benefits to the cause of reunification. However this is still a radical step that would not be taken unless China felt that it's influence in this situation had waned to the point of near insignificance.

No... the PRC will continue to play the verbal aggressor in the political/media game of "tag". Finger pointing & posturing is the the political art du jour for the Chinese mainland.

[This message has been edited by Schrullenhaft (edited 03-17-2000).]

[Spook]

It would seem of all the comments so far, those of gyrene251 are closest on track. (Some of your comments, Mark IV, are pretty good too.)

First off, I don't think that China is willing to attempt such a monumental blunder as to invade Taiwan or even hit it with an SSM this year. That would completely throw away China's efforts for the last five years to expand its international trade markets and to gain membership into the WTO. China's economy has improved in that time, but it still suffers from a lot of state-control "friction" that hasn't been phased out. So it's not inclined to suddenly go for an isolationist economy.

Second, China knows full well that even if invading Taiwan this year AND succeeding, the most part of the Taiwanese economy and industrial infrastructure would still be smashed up bad. China wants that infrastructure INTACT to boost its own economy, similar to Hong Kong's acquisition in '97.

Third, all of the heated words of China's leaders, promising a "forceful response" to resolve the matter, are done primarily to scare Taiwanese voters from voting in a president that's dead set against reunification. The three leading candidates have not expressed openly a plan to declare full Taiwanese independence, but they haven't put reunification talks in their agenda either.

So what really remains as China's hope is that the Taiwanese will "discuss" the reunification matter in the near-future, offering as a concession to Taiwan a similar "one-nation, two economy" arrangement as what still exists for Hong Kong.

BUT......as of today, 75% of the Taiwanese oppose reunification. Perhaps they are more willing to call a spade a spade compared to the rest of the international community. And present US foreign policy has regrettably done very little to clarify the issue, rather choosing to straddle the fence.

So not now, in my mind. But in 5-10 years...Taiwan's moment of truth will be on hand.

AND....to some of you guys posting earlier regarding China's poor amphibious ability, I think you better not take an overseas invasion as a given. More likely, an invasion would come in the first wave via airmobile & air assault, as helilift training exercises have intensified in the China coast opposite Taiwan.

I wouldn't put overwhelming stock in our carrier task groups to decide the war alone either. Logistically speaking, China/Taiwan is a LONG way from the nearest US bases in Okinawa & Guam, and the US doesn't have bases in the Philippines anymore. (US air units could be rebased in the Philippines under the Visiting Forces Agreement, or VFA, but the Philippines would allow that only for helping its defense rather than allow the US to stage offensive sorties.) Making a navy-to-navy comparison doesn't hold much water (pun intended), because the Chinese don't NEED to match us ship-for-ship on the sea. Taiwan's close enough for aerial reinforcement, and if the US carrier groups get in too close, they'd be potential targets for the array of Chinese ASM's that likely will be built up against them these next few years.

Finally, don't put it too far out of reach that a Chinese move against Taiwan could be good cover for the North Koreans to make a move of their own. Regardless of the depredations that the North Korean civilians have suffered through extended famine, the NK military remains sizable and on alert. (Much of the foreign food/fuel aid given to North Korea was snuck over to its army to keep it running.) A "two-front" East-Asian war has to remain a possibility to any US strategy.

So, by & large, China wants the matter resolved in its favor (reunification) peacefully. If it doesn't move against Taiwan militarily this year, it's due mainly to China's need to further upgrade its military and to stabilize its economic standing. I'm certain that China also respects some of the US Military's capabilities too, but the Pacific is NOT the US "pond", and the US forces that face a shooting war in Taiwan would do so with some of its own limitations.

[This message has been edited by Spook (edited 03-17-2000).]

[Black Sabot]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Spook:

AND....to some of you guys posting earlier regarding China's poor amphibious ability, I think you better not take an overseas invasion as a given. More likely, an invasion would come in the first wave via airmobile & air assault, as helilift training exercises have intensified in the China coast opposite Taiwan.

[This message has been edited by Spook (edited 03-17-2000).]<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

If you consider the size of the regular armed forces of the ROC, add all the reservists, home guard, civil defense, AND a hostile population numbering a few million (my guess), throw in U.S. intervention, and finally add the possibility (more like eventuality) of world comdemnation and isolation, then the likelihood of an airborne/airmobile assault from the PRC is not likely.

Now i understand you said "first wave" and i agree that these troops would be used to pave the way for the real invasion by capturing or neutralizing airfields, C3 sites, supply dumps, etc... . The problem with that is the PRC will eventually have to committ regular "heavy" divisions if it has any hopes of overcoming the forces i mentioned earlier. To do that they would need a "gator" navy about the size of the U.S. and they just ain't got it.

[Mark IV]

Black Sabot: I've no idea to which site you are referring, but I found http://www.nyu.edu/globalbeat/asia/Taiwan022699.html among others, instructive.

This is a really fascinating topic if you can keep it out of the flames- the potential Alsace-Lorraine of the early 21st century.

Spook: The Taiwanese are hoping to outlast the Reds in the same way the PRC hopes to outlast them- and I think with more grounds for optimism. Yes, the weight of numbers, eventually money, and very lastly technology are on China's side, but the experience of the 20th century is that anti-human systems fail. I don't think that China will be the last to figure this out (North Korea being the proverbial cellar-dweller in terms of political evolution). So Taiwan has time on its side, too, if they can hold out.

Regarding a heliborne assault, there is evidence that the Chinese have been practicing to seize Taiwanese airfields though some kind of airborne ops, which proves that they are serious about the long-term, under the current regime. I would be very disappointed in both Taiwan and the US military if such an obvious, delicate, and easily thwarted maneuver were allowed to succeed.

And on the amphibious front (don't forget the logistics necessary to sustain a successful surprise assault, and what surprise, we're discussing it in a WWII games forum!) and the general subject of whose pond it is, two words (if you count definite articles): Los Angeles. The LA class sub is very very very far ahead of anything China, or anyone else, can float, and I don't think China is going to risk a 21st century Tsushima to add a few hectares of sullen, smoking real estate to their considerable holdings. Despite impressive numbers of ships, their navy has essentially been an extension of their army and shows it. They would lose all their expensive hardware in a real showdown with little to be gained.

A militant Red Chinese leadership's chances would be far better with a freshly ensconced, blissfully oblivious Gore regime in the White House and no US political deadlines on the horizon. Give it a while.

[dumbo]

Given the amount of Clinton/ Gore bashing going on here (and gawd isnt that really old already) I think its fair to point out that Republicans are hardly any more competent at handling China. I know its an election year in the US but there is zero difference in China policy between the two parties.

Having recently finished Kevin Phillips rather excellent biography of Mao I can appreciate the Chinese obsession over Taiwan and I would not be so quick to dismiss the possibility of real armed action. These guys are dead serious.

China itself has enormous ethnic divisions internally. Chinese do not all speak the same language and ethnic dislikes simmer under the surface of the nation just like the Soviet Union. Put bluntly they have much to worry about at home.

"Home" unfortunately includes Taiwan. Hence chinas determination not to allow parts of itself to officially break away, once one part is allowed to slip off others start to think of self determination.

I tend to agree with the posters who say that any Chinese invasion attempt would be difficult for them at best. That said the PLA have been known to mount very successful attacks against technologically superior opponents before, namely in the Korean war.

With less territory to seize if the PLA could gain control of the entire island it would be difficult for any US regieme to continue a war. Particularly against a numerous PLA barracked within a civillian population that the US was trying to save. Look at the difficulty all of NATO had against a tiny army such as Serbia with land airbases right next door. The idea of bombing out the PLA with aircraft flying from bases in japan , the Philipines and Carriers against a numerous Chinese airforce would be problematic to say the least.

The prospect of a Chinese invasion fills me witha cold dread. At best it would start a new and massive international crisis which would affect us all and at worst it would destory the Pax Americana which exists today and open the dooor to new and dangerous world in which large wars once again occured with depressing regularity.

I for one hope it doesnt happen.

In case you are wondering no I cant think of a better policy than the Democrat/Republicans which is "trade with em and hope they get civilized."

_dumbo

[Guest MantaRay]

I have to say that the first shots fired in Taiwan may not be coventional. China for many years has stated that they would invade Taiwan if they held a vote to break away from Chinas rule.

China may or may not have a huge fleet of amphibius ships to shuttle enough of the invasion force to the main island, but with the close proximity from the mainland, they could do quite a bit of damage from they arty and even low yield nukes.

People often downplay the fact that as Taiwan is controlled by the PRC. I wonder what would happen if say Florida wanted to break-away from the US...would we go to war to stop it? We did before in the CW, so why should we expect any less of China?

The question is what would the US be willing to do if China did take control by force? We at the state the military is in not have a decent chance of re-occuping Taiwan. And if we did try, it would have a very big ripple effect in the region, especially Korea where we would be over-ran in quick fashion due to the tremendous #'s of North Korean troops that are just waiting for a chance to go over the DMZ.

I was stationed in Korea for 4 years, and that would be an even bigger loss to lose our best foothold in the region. It is really our last bastion of any kind of full scale operations in the area since we have scaled down our presence in the Phillipeans and Japan.

Plus there is no way we could ever invade China and ever hope for a Decisive victory. And also Russia is still the major player in the region and would in any event support China, and that would put the nail in our coffin so to speak.

So in closing I think that we should do everything we can to support Taiwan from a political and economic standpoint, but we would be making a huge mistake in upping the ante militarily speaking. Unfortunately, we have made ourselves out to be the saviors of the world, and someday we may need to go out and prove it, but if we go against China we will not come out of it with any hope of winning.

Ray

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[G Ned Anderson]

Howdy folks

The PRC military (err.. PLA) just happens to be my specialty. Without repeating too much of what has been said already, I'll start my brief ramble.

1. China (PRC) can only take Taiwan by controlling the seas. This will not happen, barring nuclear escalation, for many, many years.

2. China does not have the airlift capabilities to successfully invade. Of the three airborne divisions, only the capability to drop one regiment per 6-12 hours is currently feasible. Seizure of airfields and civil aircraft could allow for faster deployments.

3. China has three active marine brigades. With reserves they have eight marine divisions. Their equipment is mostly antiquated and not a match for anyone. There is one PLA group army (3-4 regular infantry divisions plus a tank regiment) trained for amphibious landings. Official PLAN capabilities are one marine brigade afloat that can be landed immediately on a beach. Civillian naval transport can allow for much (MUCH) more, but need ports to do it.

4. Reunification won't happen. The PRC will fall before any reunification happens.

5. Nuclear weapons and nuclear blackmail are VERY plausible in any future conflict involving the PRC.

Greg

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I love the f***ing Army

and the Army loves f***ing me

[Fionn]

Well, while I don't think my "wargaming" of the exact situation under discussion last summer was 100% accurate it is of some interest since I did some research on the Chinese Military District directly opposite Taiwan and naval capabilities in coming up with my plan.

Mark IV,

Funny you should mention "sneakiness". Did you know that some commercial and cargo flights from the Chinese mainland go to Taiwan?

As part of my long-term preparatory planning as Chinese CO I upped the number of cargo and commercial flights run by the civilian state air fleet from China to Taiwan and on the day of invasion managed to bring a few thousand troops into Taiwan (spread over 3 airports near the western coast IIRC ( I needed this since I needed to minimise the amount of time follow-on waves of troop-carrying planes would be in the SAM envelope of SAM bases near those airfields ) over the course of the first 30 minutes of the, as of then undeclared, war, I managed to get 2 or 3 flights into each civilian airport I wanted to secure ( for my follow-on military and civilian troop-carrying planes).

A few judicious attacks on SAM bases on the coast by SF, extreme low-level flying by helicopter, parachute and troop carrying aircraft got most of them through safely and by the end of the first day two of the airports were nice and safe in my hands.

Heliborne troops captured 3 small civilian port/fishing villages and I brought civie and military troop and vehicle carrying vehicles across.

Now, what this all means to me is that China definitely has the ability to mobilise some quasi-military assets and create a sizable first strike which could gain a foothold if they are willing to prosecute the attack and airlift and accept heavy losses while doing so.

HOWEVER to make any invasion a success they need to be able to resupply and expand any bridgeheads. To do that they need secure lines of communication and supple and the simple fact is that while China can secure its lines of supply against Taiwanese air and naval interference it can't secure them against US involvement.

A Chinese invasion IS possible under all circumstances currently prevailing but they and the US know that if the US steps in their ability to resupply and reinforce will be minimal and the invasion will fail.

If the US doesn't step in then China could invade and have a good chance of success. of course, I doubt that China would "succeed" in keeping the economy of Taiwan intact if it invaded and let's face it, the prize is the Taiwanese economy, not Taiwan.

All in all, I figure that the ONLY way to achieve Chinese aims is by continued sabre-rattling. ANY invasion by the Chinese is an admission of defeat. the ONLY invasion which can succeed is one which takes place in the absence of US involvement. Lastly, only a truly incompetent and ignorant US president would allow a Chinese invasion of Taiwan to succeed. The immediate and obvious repercussions on world trade AND on South Korea and Japans willingness to totally and immediately modernise and upgrade China's military (to save themselves from a similar fate) would be catastrophic.

Ps. Modern Chinese invasions of other countries have a PATHETIC record. Look what happened when they went into Vietnam . Everytime they had a border dispute with Russia during the 80s the Chinese lost big time. The only recent invasion they had which went well was the invasion of a pacifist country (Dalai Lama land as I like to call it ).

Numerical superiority isn't all it is cracked up to be AND to bring your numerical superiority to bear you NEED to be able to get all those numbers across the strait and onto Taiwan . In some ways having large numbers of troops works against you when conducting an invasion... You have to plan to supply all those troops and the more you have to supply the greater your problems are.

MantaRay,

I have to disagree with your assesment of Korea. I think the Sierra Kilos would definitely be able to put up a better fight now than they did last time the November Kilos attacked.

All those high-rises along the main highways into Seoul are reinforced, bunkers litter the landscape, stay-behinds are designated etc.. I think that the Sierra Kilos could hold. The Novemeber Kilo numerical superiority isn't that large and invasion routes are well known and have had 50 years of defensive preparation.

[Guest GriffinCheng]

As a person, a cillian sitting next to the arsenal-to-be-blown, should say something. And I am writing this post with the risk of being banned from this forum.

Thae latest is, well over than 2.5 hours ago, the pro-independent candidate, Mr. Chen will be the next President of RoC. (Allow me to use this term: I don't think Taiwan is a country other than a political entity, so I sue the term RoC) Bad news.

I am not a communist, and I don't believe in Communism, living in Hong Kong.

Many of your invaluable ideas are noted and well, very appreciated.

One thing I want you people to note, PRC is no longer a communist, at least not in their economic policies. I grow up under British-colonical rule and witness the reform of PRC (actually to be "politically-correct", I would like to use the word China) for the last twenty years. (how irony)

Many points of Fionn are noted and is pretty agreed. Another possible way of infiltrating Taiwan is by fishing boat. It is pretty possible to hide commandos using civilians and destroy the communications center.

I believe ballastic SSM could be the 1st wave. They would best used on oil-refineries, power plants, airfields, comm centers. Washington Posts reports that China has over 200 mid-range SSM amining at Taiwan and is increasing.

Do you people in the US heard that one power line failure caused major blackout in Taiwan (including Taipei) for almost 24 hours late last year? I read from the paper that one Taiwan guy joked that if mainland China is to destroy Taiwan's economy by blasting a power grid with a M-9 SSM a day (a way which harms no life directly).

In terms of military "solution", Mainland has a heck lot of options and a combination of some of these options will make Taiwan a very difficult place to live in.

I don't think and I hope not war will break out.

But the result of the election has raised the danger of war and also, Chinese politics is complicated and "volitile" for first, Chinese Communist party is not transparent, and worse, her nortorious tradition of "internal power struggles". And now since a pro-indepent leader emerged in RoC, the PLA has a "louder" voice in directing to policies toward Taiwan -- dangerous.

Most critics and observers here in Hong Kong belieive that since there is no more military exercies this year, as opposed to that of 1996 election, they post their "threats" in words to accomplish 2 things : one, try to steer the election away from pro-independent candidate (if so, they have failed) and two, force the RoC government (whoever in house) to the talks table. Chinese official do not trust Chen Shui-bian, the next president of RoC, for his pro-independent ideology of his DPP.

If you people have any knowledge on the "Taiwan White Paper" which is recently released, China will "reunify" Taiwan province if 1) overran by foreign powers, 2) declare independent 3) delay or postpone reunification talks. There has been indirect talks on both sided before 1995, but after the President Mr. Lee Teng-hu visited US, the relationship goes to the freezing point.

Counter to most you think, from the information I have read from sources in Taiwan, most people don't like KMT, the "ex-" ruling party, for they are corrumpted. Most of them don't want to go "independent" overnight. However, they don't love mainland China more. They want to live in this dedicated harmony and peace, so that they can still enjoy the fruits of the economic prosperity. Please also note that there is a sizable, though minority, are "immigrated" from other provincies in mainland China and many voted for a more "centerlined" candidate James Soong, which lose only about by 2%.

I am keeping a close eye on the development of this one. Interesting discussion to you people but a life-issue for me.

Griffin @ home.

[This message has been edited by GriffinCheng (edited 03-18-2000).]

[MCab]

If anybody would like to know what China could deploy, go to www.softwar.net and look up the SS-N-(forgot number) "Sunburn" anti-ship missle.

Go to www.washtimes.com and search for China's new military communications technology.

[Guest GriffinCheng]

MCab,

A quick lookup on my military magaine (from Taiwan acutally). If you don't mind using Russian destination, it should be 3M82.

Griffin @ home.

[Hakko Ichiu]

One thing that hasn't been mentioned in this thread is the political nature of the PRC/RoC conflict. While I yield to Ned's superior knowledge of Chinese forces, I think an attempt, successful or otherwise, may happen in the near future depending on the struggles within the Communist Party. There are several opposed camps w/in the CPC and if the military camp feels its position threatened, it may very well attempt to escalate the Taiwan situation. Were that to happen, I think Taiwan would face attack from not only conventional forces, but also NBC units -- especially if an initial conventional attack started to go badly for the PLA. It should be remembered that struggles within the CPC have led to pretty stupid actions in the past, e.g., the Cultural Revolution.

In the PLA White Paper on Taiwan, the PLA express their belief that the power of any US naval assets in the Taiwan straits could be neutralized by anti-ship missles, of which the Chinese have quite a lot in the area. They also believe that once established in Taiwan they would be difficult to dislodge because of their willingness to accept massive casualties for every square inch of territory.

Fionn: What was the PBEM Taiwan invasion game you were playing? Sounds fascinating.

Ethan

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Das also war des Pudels Kern! -- Goethe

[Fionn]

Griffin.

I don't think anyone here made any assumptions that the Taiwan government is or isn't popular with its people etc. We're just chatting about military stuff.. BTW as regards the fishing boat thing... I'd be amazed if China doesn't already have a good network in place just ready to spring into action ( I doubt military action would necessitate the placement of any more special forces assets.)

Ethan,

A PBEM run by an-ex US Army intel guy.. He's not running any more now though ;(.

[Mark IV]

GriffinCheng: Why are you risking being banned from the forum? I don't understand.

Some general points:

Nobody here WANTS a war with China. Lorak's original question was about the hypothetical tactical and logistic concerns in this very dangerous area. Addressing those is timely (and Chen has won, so even more so). This is what wargamers do, and you can bet the Pentagon is gaming this one right now.

There are 23 million people in Taiwan. This is not a joke to them or us. Whatever happens to them is a message to SK and Japan, and the rest of the world. The Pax Americana (like the Brittannica and Romana) stems from our ability and willingness to project power- Peace through Strength.

I don't think the Chinese are willing to use nukes on Taiwan, because it defeats the purpose of an occupation. Not only would they become an international pariah and risk an unacceptable escalation, they would kill the goose laying the golden eggs. They might rattle them a bit to see who blinks, though.

There is NO question of a US invasion of China.

The whole invasion hypothesis is very scary, which unfortunately is also what makes it interesting. If there wasn't a huge, sinister, nuclear power under communist rule threatening a free people with invasion, this wouldn't be interesting or scary.

Abandoning Taiwan now would amount to another democratic (small d) appeasement of a militarist belligerent, which always fails.

As for China not being communist: when they renounce communism, hold free elections, and open up their media and institutions, we'll all believe that. 'Til then, the "accommodations" they have made in the eastern provinces and the SARs are only concessions made by what remains a Marxist dictatorship; commercial zones remain the exception to the general rule, and are really just cynical fund-raisers by people whose philosophy states that the end justifies any means. Without the rule of law they can be rescinded at any time, on a whim or by a new Cultural Revolution.

I know this is not a pleasant thing to read in SAR Hong Kong but it's the truth.