Upsets, miracles,fate and just maybe a little Luck?

[von shrad]

Something has been burning in the back of my mind for some time now. I am a person who likes to think that fate can play a part in all actions. That certain cicumstances can arise where the probable isnt always definate.So my question is this;

Does a consiserably smaller force have a chance to get lucky and pull off an acomplishment against a numerically superior enemy? Can a understrength squad eliminate lets say 2 full squads, ever? I would like to think that although the odds might be against them, the depleted squads shots could be truer. That maybe out of sheer desperation the weaker force could prevail.

Is it in the code to have these chances? or does 4 ALWAYS beat 2? Does the code allow even a slim chance of success against overwhelming odds? I would like to think that nothing is certain.

Thanks,

Von Shrad

[Miyamoto Musashi]

well, if the terrain is taken into consideration, then fewer can definitely beat the greater.

In both CE and VoT, I've had isolated small groups face larger attackers and win, although the first attacking groups were taken by surprise and my groups had the advantage of being in place in trees, waiting for the enemy. So that isn't exactly what you're looking for, but under certain circumstances, it's definitely possible for a few to beat a bunch.

[sniperscope]

Nothing is certain my friend. I am involved in a PBEM game where I had the upper hand and was winning the battle. In one turn everything went downhill. A little luck,some great stratagy from capitalisdoginchina and the next thing I knew I am losing and trying to regroup my forces. I simply love this game.

sniperscope

[Lorak]

Have you been following Fionn's AAR at the CMHQ? It takes good planning and a lot of luck. But it can be done.

Lorak

------------------

http://clubs.yahoo.com/clubs/combatmissionclub

Lorak's FTX for CM <--Proud member of the Combat Mission Webring

[This message has been edited by Lorak (edited 06-02-2000).]

[von shrad]

Yes, you are both right. This game has so many different factors that play a part in the larger scope of the game that not many victories are absolutely certain. Also, as the very kind Miyamoto so graciously pointed out, one can use terrain and positioning to better your chances but, I was thinking in terms more primal.

Can a squad who is in open ground with 2 men remaining beat, for lack of a better word,a full squad also in open ground? I know that it is unbalanced firepower but is there even the slimmest chance that they will miss and the small squad could..er..win? I know it would be HIGHLY unlikely in real life but does the engine allow such small hope?

[:USERNAME:]

Against the computer ai? nah but when playing email Ive had platoons get wiped out.

I guess its ambush or just a human brain but theres no comparing AI to human email. I think its time BTS recognized this and played it up. Spin the good thing. Its a great email game!

Lewis

[Seanachai]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by von shrad:

I was thinking in terms more primal.

Can a squad who is in open ground with 2 men remaining beat, for lack of a better word,a full squad also in open <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Well, I don't know about squad on squad combat, but a few nights ago when I was screwing around with the game just trying to set something up, I stumbled into this situation. In CE, a Sherman had driven up near the edge of the woods just NE of the Church, and encountered a smattering of German infantry. The Sherman, buttoned, ended up about 20ms from a HQs squad, kneeling in open ground and looking like a sacrifice. The HQ was down to 2 out of 4 soldiers. The tank was machine-gunning and blasting some other nearby infantry, and the depleted HQ squad tossed a grenade underneath the tank, and knocked it out. The crew bailed, and took further casualties from the plucky HQ squad, who sat there whacking away at them with their personal weapons. On top of that, a machine gun squad that had been riding the Sherman took some casualties during the grenading, they bailed, and ran off panicked, and the HQ captured them before they got more than a few steps. (Admittedly, I don't know if the precise situation would have happened in normal combat; I was primarily rushing a few units into certain positions to check something out). Also, let me add, that this situation was basically worked through by the AI, I wasn't interested in detailed play, as I said. So it seems to me that there are times when even weak units can indeed triumph.

------------------

After witnessing exceptional bravery from his Celtic mercenaries, Alexander the Great called them to him and asked if there was anything they feared. They told him nothing, except that the sky might fall on their heads.

[Seanachai]

Oops, double post.

[This message has been edited by Seanachai (edited 06-03-2000).]

[von shrad]

Lewis I think you are missing my point. The game uses a certain formula to determine combat results. So I was wondering if, in its calculations, a favorable result could be obtained using the example I posted above.

As to th AI. What a lot of people overlook is that we all play a certain way. And although we might change them some from game to game, we all have a pattern to our tactics.Although you might excell at an attack against an opponent, the same exact attack might fail against anothers defensive tactics. Or visa versa.

So it is,IMHO, nearly impossible to create an AI that has been taught to be all of those people

[BFCElvis]

von Shredded..What you are asking is probably built into the game but let me play devils advocate for a second...... There are people who post on this board who, if they were on the receiving end of what you are talking about, would scream that "there was a bug in the game: or that "it isn't realistic that 2 men could wipe out a whole squad".

Cynic mode off

------------------

"Trying to be so bad is bad enough. Don't make me laugh by talking tough."

[:USERNAME:]

From what BTS claims, they are using fuzzy logic. Meaning to Steve i dont know what ..

I would welcome perhaps Charles pontificating somewhat on combat results..

Lewis

[von shrad]

Elvira, first of all let me tell you how much I like your movies and I have to ask, are those real?

You are right though. Some sorry S.O.B would dissapear from your Pbem game, faster than a waiter at Denny's, never to return to it while bitching on the forum'this game sucks'. I on the other hand would welcome such a possibility. It could happen. It did happen. Very uncommon but it did all the same.

[Guest Big Time Software]

There are so many factors involved in every combat calculation in CM that yes, just about anything is possible (though 2 men beating a squad is indeed highly unlikely).

There is certainly no code in CM that looks anything even remotely like "If (2 squads versus 4 squads) return (4-squads win)".

Think about it for a second. Even if I wanted to write braindead code like that, how would I? What even defines a 4-on-2 squad mini-battle? Is it when 4 squads meet up with 2 squads? How close do they have to be? What if 3 of the 4 are close to the 2 enemies, but the 4th squad is straggling in the rear? Does it still count as 4-on-2? What if some of the squads can't see one another? Does it still qualify as a single, discrete little 4-on-2 "battle"? What if the 2 squads are veterans and the 4-squads are conscripts? Should this "rule" still hold that the 4-squads always win? What if there's a tank a few hundred meters away, not firing into the group yet, but might soon? What if there is other infantry nearby, but not quite near enough to be "local" to the 4-on-2? What is "local" anyway? What if artillery is landing nearby? What about terrain? Squad types? Sizes? Previous casualties? "Global" morale? Different small arms? Ammo levels? Leadership effects? Flanking fire?

My point is that "4 always beats 2" doesn't even make sense in CM's world.

Fortunately, CM is able to handle everything mentioned above because it uses a sensible system based on real-world data incorporating all these aspects of combat into casualties, morale, ammo usage, etc. There are no cut-and-dry rules like "4 always beats 2".

Perhaps you are thinking too directly along the lines of older-style games with very simplistic combat rules like "Odds 2:1, roll d6, 1-4 attacker wins, 5-6 defender wins". But that sort of thing just doesn't exist in CM.

Charles

[This message has been edited by Big Time Software (edited 06-03-2000).]

[Guest grunto]

-What is "local" anyway? -

uh.. whatever can bring (effective) fire at a given moment to the contested map

objective(s)?

andy

[KiloIndiaAlpha]

A statistical universe of data sets can be generated from an underlying data model (combat model). Sometimes you may have a priori knowledge about the probable values and probable uncertainties of some of the parameters that your trying to estimate. Often in such cases you may want to perform a fit that takes this information into account- a technique known as 'use of priori covariances'. However such sophisticated techniques would demand too much cpu time, much simpler to generate outcome spaces from a simple (but accurate) combat model on an ad-hoc basis and use without the covariances. Then sample the generated outcome space to estimate the PROBABLE outcome.

------------------

Dulce Et Decorum Est

[CoolColJ]

ccj

[tss]

KiloIndiaAlpha is using a lot of fancy words to say that it is easier to program an AI behavior that will usually play relatively well than to program a lot of special cases so that it will perform better in some specific occasions.

At least that is how I understood it. However, it's 1 am here, I've spent the last seven hours trying to get my paper on formal logic to publishable condition, and I'll probably be here until 4 am so my thoughts are not too clear right now.

Well, at least 22 hours left until deadline...

- Tommi

[Aacooper]

I can say from a D-B VoT experience there is a definite possibility the German squads will act like they're armed with Super Soakers and the US squads will act like they're made out of soap. In other words, at hand grenade ranges my US squads melted away, despite numerical superiority.

[Guest Germanboy]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Aacooper:

I can say from a D-B VoT experience there is a definite possibility the German squads will act like they're armed with Super Soakers and the US squads will act like they're made out of soap. In other words, at hand grenade ranges my US squads melted away, despite numerical superiority.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

And such a pretty sight it was - I think I am going to use that captured flamethrower thingy of yours to clean up the mess. Fire, the cleansing flame, whuharharharhar (evil Germanboy laugh) This game was a true nail-biter for me. Double-blind playing is great, despite all the spoilers here.

Repeat experiences of mine are:

a) don't mess with German squads on short range in woods or buildings

in woods, try to be there before the enemy. Whoever is receiving the other guys is probably going to come out alive. This works without ambushes, too.

c) Nicht kleckern sondern klotzen

Oh, and I retract anything I said about the AI not doing massed attacks. I have seen it now and got my butt handed to me by the AI once despite trying - damn I suck.

------------------

Andreas

It is amazing what you can learn from a good book...

[109 Gustav]

Sure it might be possible for 2 people to beat back a squad, just highly unlikely. If probability falls perfectly in their favor, and every round is a hit, and none of the enemie's are, they would. Very unlikely. Still, the only thing certain about war is that one side won't win.

------------------

There is nothing certain about war except that one side won't win.

-Ian Hamilton

[Dan]

I've posted this before but 1 of my squads playing as germans in VoT caussed 26 Inf Cassulities. more than 3 times their own number. Only 1 surrived though. I had them placed in the woods just behind the last row of houses in the village. To be honset they litteraly saved the day almost by them selves. So by the time I got my panther the american inf was trying to reorginze themsleves and all he had to worry about was the 4 tanks left. Also I think this had a profund effect on the american global morale, when I looked at the map at the end of the game their morale was 9%. I had american inf untis surrendering at even the sight of my panther. I loved it. I was certain I was going to lose that battle but the 1 squad, and he panther alone caused 41 casulites and 4 tanks knoked out. so they get the knigts cross.

[Compassion]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by tss:

KiloIndiaAlpha is using a lot of fancy words to say that it is easier to program an AI behavior that will usually play relatively well than to program a lot of special cases so that it will perform better in some specific occasions.

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

You mean like 3R (my all time favorite... but vexing... grand strat game... more special rules than regular rules just to get the dang thing to work!)!

[von shrad]

Compassion, they made A3r to be more fluid to play. An example is this simple precedure;

27.561 Counter-interception takes place before the defenders naval units complete their interception. Counter-interceptions are carried out in the same manner as interceptions. If counter-interception takes place in the hex selected by the defender for his interception, only the counter-intercepting naval units would engage in fleet combat with the intercepting naval units.The naval units being intercepted would not join in this naval battle. If the intercepting naval units defeat the counter-intercepting naval units, they may move to the indicated interception hex and engage the intercepted naval units or abort the interception and return to port, at the owning players option.

See how clear those rules are?

[DEF BUNGIS]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by :USERNAME::

From what BTS claims, they are using fuzzy logic.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Just what, is fuzzy logic?

------------------

Better to make the wrong decision than be the sorry son of a bitch to scared to make one at all

[Compassion]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by von shrad:

Compassion, they made A3r to be more fluid to play. An example is this simple precedure;

27.561 Counter-interception takes place before the defenders naval <snip a mouthfull>

See how clear those rules are?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I once took a look at the A3R manual and came to the conclusion that thye made a complicated game more complicated. Hooray for progress...