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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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1 hour ago, acrashb said:

In recent conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan, figures have been cited around 250,000 rounds per insurgent killed, though this includes a vast amount of ammunition used in training and suppressive fire.

During the Vietnam War, it was estimated that around 50,000 bullets were fired for each enemy soldier killed.

It would be interesting to see how many drones are consumed for one KIA - but it will be a lot less than 50K.

Bulk 7.62x39mm, right now, is about $0.50 per round.  Let's say armed forces spend half of that.  So 50K rounds means $12.5K per KIA, 250K rounds means $62.5K per KIA.

Small FPV drones surely cost less than that, even it it takes more than one per KIA.

So the future still looks like drones (of all kinds and costs), artillery, and infantry - primarily.  
 

Good math!

And on that topic, even if it takes 20x $3000 drones to take out a Bradley, that's still a good return on investment as a Bradley is a $1.8m vehicle.

Where the FPVs really shine in cost accounting is that the total cumulative cost for putting a drone downrange is small.  For all traditional systems, be it artillery, tank, aircraft, even ground based ATGMs... the cost is WAY higher.  This is true even for the small arms example you cased out.  When you figure in things like the logistics costs of getting 50k rounds to that soldier, the FPV looks even better by comparison.

Steve

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Not surprising... Slovakia's Fico is saying not only won't he support any aid to Ukraine, but he will block any attempts for Ukraine to enter NATO if attempted while in office.  He also said he'd visit Moscow on the 80th anniversary of the end of WW2 because of all the wonderful things the Soviet Union did for Slovakia.  Oh wait, he only mentioned the liberation from the Nazis and not the 45 years of Soviet domination after.  Maybe it just slipped his mind?

https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-ukraine-slovakia-robert-fico-military-defense-alliance/

Steve

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1 hour ago, acrashb said:

In recent conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan, figures have been cited around 250,000 rounds per insurgent killed, though this includes a vast amount of ammunition used in training and suppressive fire.

During the Vietnam War, it was estimated that around 50,000 bullets were fired for each enemy soldier killed.

It would be interesting to see how many drones are consumed for one KIA - but it will be a lot less than 50K.

Bulk 7.62x39mm, right now, is about $0.50 per round.  Let's say armed forces spend half of that.  So 50K rounds means $12.5K per KIA, 250K rounds means $62.5K per KIA.

Small FPV drones surely cost less than that, even it it takes more than one per KIA.

So the future still looks like drones (of all kinds and costs), artillery, and infantry - primarily.  
 

I did some searching on this a while back, too.

If you're doing it with arty, it's somewhere between 10 and 100 or so shells fired per casualty inflicted.  And that doesn't factor in that you have to have the tubes (and trucks to haul them around) and move all those shells to the front in boats/trains/trucks.

It takes fewer than 10, and possibly fewer than 5 drones to inflict one casualty.  And the bunch of them and their munition probably weigh less than a 155 shell+ propellant (though they might take more volume, depending on the model).  They also produce a lot less collateral damage - you don't have to drop 100 drones on a village to hit that tank hiding behind a wall.  Or to get 3 guys holed up in a trench.

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https://www.threads.net/@kyivpost.official/post/DAz45t_I4oF?xmt=AQGzJTpKSHsL0rbru91fK-EPjb8VknQMi6T7sqkBBqwaoA

In Russian occupied Crimea, an oil depot in Feodosia continues to burn after overnight drone strikes.

Already damaged due to drone attacks earlier this year, this facility was recently upgraded with air defense units, Pansir and S300.

 

I don't know if Ukraine is blowing up enough stuff in Russia to make Putin give up, but Ukraine is blowing up stuff in Russia every couple of days on a continuing basis.

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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not surprising... Slovakia's Fico is saying not only won't he support any aid to Ukraine, but he will block any attempts for Ukraine to enter NATO if attempted while in office.  He also said he'd visit Moscow on the 80th anniversary of the end of WW2 because of all the wonderful things the Soviet Union did for Slovakia.  Oh wait, he only mentioned the liberation from the Nazis and not the 45 years of Soviet domination after.  Maybe it just slipped his mind?

https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-ukraine-slovakia-robert-fico-military-defense-alliance/

Steve

He shouls have said "over my dead body".

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