Beleg85

Not only when larger organziation is at hand; you only need adress of his family. People in most Muslim countries/communities are living communally in very large gatherings, sometimes dozens of relatives, cousins, older ones etc.; it is their families that gives them strength, socialize them and matter most. There are exceptions, but this is a general weakness known to Russians for centuries. Way of pacifying Chechens was exactly that; attack and heavily persecute larger family, clan, village. Even brave to the point of suicide Chechen fighters didn't have answer when your 10th relative in a month comes back with broken legs and all fingers cut off, begging to stop fighting. Collective punishment is considered very effective way of subduing unruly muslims in Moscow; burden of taking sure none of your sons/cousins/brothers will do something stupid fall on larger family, so it also takes punishment in case. It's not like they have their individual rights or something, right? It didn't work in Afghanistan due to other issues, but is still basic modus operandi of muscovite services in such cases. Now we already saw 11 persons arrested, including guy who lend car to assailants, owner of flat they lived in, probably their cousins, stepsisters and neighbours are already being intimidated- for now, mostly verbally. If Kremlin will keep it cool, limit itself to public tortures of assailants and not go into heavy persecutions of entire groups of people, I doubt this entire incident will have long-lasting or profound repercussions. I expect at some point also Kadyrovites to be heavily involved as "good" Russian Muslims, despite Ahmad himself being rather silent lately.

We are just at the start of it. There is a good rule to wait with assessment of deeper societal effects of any terrorist acts for a month or even better- several. Kremlin will spin it more coherently, don't worry, especially when detainees will start to sign. I am also not sure about public torture and humilation as supposedly failed deterrents to potentiall islamists in russia itself; having one's balls fried publically by electricity is quite another thing than going straight into jannah in some glorified impersonal blast. Potentiall candidates will have a lot to think about, especially if they come from less-bellicose Central Asiatics rather than traditionally more troublesome Caucasian islamists. Anybody remembers Beirut and what Soviets did when their ambassador was kidnapped? In Russia it is considered one of greatest feats of counter-terrorism in their history, source of pride for another generations and way these things should be done- as opposed to actual hostage rescues, which mostly went catastrophic for them. None Western states purposefully and openly (Abu Ghraib was kept hidden) did anything like that as response to islamic terrorism and public tortures are de mode for something like two and a half centuries already. Kremlin will also benefit in short term in perhaps more tolerance for press-ganging some poor muslim peons (they will likely have several dozens thousand recruits more), but even then people from Central Asia will find it attractive to live and earn in Moscow. They simply lack other choice.

This would make fantastic mini-series if done right, which current Hollywood naturally won't be able to do. Especially Proxy Foxy episode seems interesting. But hey, lately Lukaszenko is in the "Swagging villain from 60-ies" mood that Putin can only try to mimick, so maybe he could be main antagonist:

Very likely something like this will emerge one day. And this will be the end of ISIS as true edgy islamists. They don't know in what dump they just stepped in. What is their ideology of silly millenaristic sect compared to Black Hole of Russian reality ? Blue jumper or winter jacket they say...

Add countries of former Third World as consumers of such narrations; notion that United States is behind every jihadi movement on the planet is not fringe there at all and will find very fertile ground. Middle East, India, large swaths of Africa, some South America... likely guys meeting at Valdai club are now more important as points of referance for Putin than contrarians in the West. Syrian Girl and similar global vatnik propagandists are just a cherry on top of that, appealing to roughly the same people they always did. It seems Coke Plant is still not safe place for Russians despite being captured long time ago.

Oh, definitelly there is the limit to that, usually proportionall to its size, might and importance on global stage (which in this case is sadly significant). I simply descibed how messaging from Kremlin may look like in nearest future and why we shouldn't read too much into what will seem like incoherence between various narrations. It's not proof this entire system soon breaks apart, but neither that it is super intelligent, always centred on "what Westerners will think about me and how convince them". It simply works on slightly different framework than we are accustomed to when comes to power, identity, place in the world etc.- it's a fact, otherwise I see no explanation how it can serve such ungodly amounts of human meat further into this idiotic confict to only reassure itself it is still empire.* To use my golem comparision, so far we (or rather Ukranians) didn't applied enough crushing force to break this strange creature...so it just sits there, hitting with fists while broken at many palces and shaken by progressively more absurd internal troubles, but visibly expecting that its dumb inertia will carry it over to some solution. *Or even worse thought sometimes come to mind- if Ms. Kabaieva would be more ingenious in her mistress duties served to this aging autocrat, perhaps all this bloody quagmire eating people could be avoided. But I seriously doubt it. https://tass.com/emergencies/1766181 Bortnikov, who always looks like this unwilling last hangman who is very sorry he must be there to cut your head off (I frankly think he is in serious depression), blame United Kingdom. Probably more evidence will surface soon.

Well, in most of our countries, unless hijacked by radical populists, government messaging must be roughly consistent on all levels. In Russia it doesn't. It it entriely possible their propagandists and even Putin himself talk about CIA hands in this (this is for domestic audence, and there may be in the same time contradictory messages at different segments of it), while their diplomats will send flowers and chocolades like crazy to Western partners with hidden messages like "Let's Meet at midgnight near Metternich statue, we will talk from bottom of our heart how together fight islamistic menace". For me it is not so much a novelty as a proof that Putin does not calculate Western public in his major endevours like some specialists in the field still seem to think. That ship sailed; multipolar order now or never. From utilitarian angle, you are right it would be most productive for him to actually amplify ISIS trace; his diplomacy may actually still do that behind the doors. Who knows, if pressured consistently it could one day (after and during elections in US) be a trump card in "normalization" process or at least a tool to shift balance of part of American public. But Putin is too far on his geopolitical voyage for that. Love us how we are it or leave us, is his message for vatniks and opportunists in the West.

Putin very visibly blamed US in his speech ("by hands of Kyiv regime"- note, Ukraine is only triggerman here) and in Russian imperial psyche it is not disgraceful to be smashed by superior Yanks. In other words, it was planned and executed by CIA- earlier US warnings will only support this line of thinking. They are read as threats rather than genuine information, even if we actually know now they were taken seriously in many places in Russia: https://twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1772268163775840437 I am pretty sure that as time goes by we will see more "evidence" and propagandists in Russia and abroad will gradually work on minds of populace. 1-2 years from now heads of half of them will be in this strange, shadowy place Kremlin loves to be in- "Who knows, it's mysterious matter, everybody lies but most probably it's foreign agents". Unless more similar acts will follow on behalf of IS-K, and fast, original simple message of islamic terror will be bended, broken and reforged dozen times. Also Kremlin propaganda will be multi-directed like always: Margo Simonyan, Solovyov and other scum will work on Ukraine trace (latter probably soon find out extra lead to UK anyway), Putin will wrestle with heroic geopolitical fight with USA (UA is beyond his dignity), Kadyrov will keep unruly parts of muslims for their faces and perhaps only Lavrov will have new tool to show how Russia suffers from US-sponsored jihadi menace, with wink sended here and there that perhaps they could use it as platform of further cooperation like proper empires should do. Things will then likely gradually go back to its natural life cycle in Muscovia. Tsar is taking care fo its flock at the Kremlin, evil nazis are in Ukraine, globalists interests kept outside and their domestic opposition assets jailed. Like God commanded.

Almost feel bad for those jihadists; simpletons don't even comprehend in what swamp of contradictory realities they packed themselves in with their terror message directed at Kremlin.

Add that there were convoys with stuff from previous tranches crossing the border barely week or so ago; military trucks go both ways constantly, so it is sometimes difficult to say what is coming from new batches. All their confessions are bollocks by this point. Russian security apparatus by default force everybody to admitt to old script: "mysterious smoking guy - phone- money". Money must be involved, since Russian public expect that evil guys will most likely be mercenaries, without motherland, ethics, convictions etc. This further strenghen need for patriotic narrations and vigilance of potentiall traitors; it's stupid, but it works that way there. Society believing in shadow actors behind every corner is easier to controll, and as strange as it sounds, regular jihadists are too banal for that- they are like force of nature, such mind cannot blame them seriously. Naturally from that point Kremlin may direct narration on desired villains (Ukraine, CIA, opposition). Also, worth to add "X-files" was very popular there in its own time. No petty middlemen would do such an act, there are 1000s of things that could go wrong, including quite probable that some policeman accidently arrived on the scene or somebody in vicinity being armed and simply playing sheriff (that was btw. reason why Beslan became such a slaughter- neighbours took matters in their own hands and started uncontrolled firefight with terrorists). All jhadi acts are conducted by jihadis, usually they die in the process, this is very much a given. Kremlin had little initiative to procure false flag this way, we discussed it quite extensively last several pages. I could out of hand imagine 20 scenarios that would make more sense from their perspective.

Anoter airstrike, this time on Odessa. Unfortunatlly they likely hit something, judging by afterexplosions sounds.

Results of last airstrike. Russians claim that Kinzals were used to target among others "seat of Ukrainian special services" and Patriot batteries places at Zhuliany airport.

Four lines of cocaine + bottle of vodka and when morning comes this guy can deliver some dumb text half the length of Mahabharata if daddy Putin really wants, without AI help. On russkiy after all. Btw. artists are one of most slimmy, bootlicking group in Russia. 75% of local musical pop scene is like that and possibly much more among filmmakers. Those with spine mostly left many years ago.

Unusual protection against drones on one Russian BMP. Looks like anti-pigeon hedhehog.

Clothes, postures and hair are identical. Their faces are visible on car camera recordings as well as this white car that was later stopped, but I get the last argument is weaker. What about sudden hacking of all global jihadi media outlets? Every violent and controversial event in Russia stinks. It's motherland of all global conspiracy theories by default. Mighty scenography.

Yeah we should definitelly, but also note that Russia also witnessed several bloody incidents of active shooters in recent years; reasons may be different than in US, but they have their own "Columbine effect" too, despite more restriction on firearms (probably militarization of younger strata of society, rolling already before the war, is one of factors). Very few effective adjustments to procedures were made since then: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Izhevsk_school_shooting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perm_State_University_shooting Islamic State did literally everything to prove it was them, including publication of photos, own-made clips from scene which was corroborated by all dependable intelligence agencies. Unless you suggest Russians somehow hacked now into all official IS media outlets and captured their entire narration. Shaman may be on drugs or using previous template. Also, he is not exactly James Joice either, but banal composer for masses. Nice clip from Novokuibyshchevsk rafinery drone strike; curious how suddenly these drones are loosing high at the target, it almost look like diving bombers from WWII.

Intelligence failure is one thing. But the fact they did managed to slip away and pathetic time of reaction from services is the other - like firefighters not extinguishing the fire due to danger from gunmen and police not entering building due to flames... Also fact that there are so many half-military security formations creates organizational chaos and overlapping competences. On top of that, perhaps most important, is inertia when comes to reponsibility of different branches; everyone wants only to cover their a.s and do nothing extra. According to Chief of Airforce here F-16 were scrambled as Russian TU-s were in the air, but there was no firepower in this actual place able to shot down the rocket, which flew for short time along the border several hundred meters deep, on the verge of UA airspace (last time it was 2:30+ sek),. Village is even closer to border than neighbour Przewodów.

But admitt it, folks; this country sux at so many levels it breaks all measures. One would think that capital of authoritarian state at war with enemy four times smaller, full of all kinds of police, military formations, paramilitary formations, incognito formations on top of entire chain of spies, snitches and cameras would at least be relatively safe from this one type of danger. But hell no, hold my beer and all of that. Russia long time ago races only with itself; time perhaps for occassional song from enemy camp:

Apparently they even had time to upload own-made videos from atttack to the Amaq. Easy job for these guys. https://twitter.com/SaladinAlDronni/status/1771657168665690479 Compared to last actions, modus operandi is similar. Plea, photo of bros with a flag, announcement, some extra clips from inside the attack and later recognition. So it seems situation is now rather clear (Amaq News is official channel of IS) at least when comes to whom to blame. I wouldn't be surprised they even found a moment to visit drive-thru after hard working day. No hurry.

Good catch. However, speed may not be most important factor here but avoiding patrols. Also as I remember at least before the war there was one of staging points in Gomel for "refugees" ; presence of Middle-Eastern or Central Asiatic guys in Belarus would be suspicious several years ago, but not anymore. There were thousands moving across the country. Also perhaps most plausible explanation is that these guys didn't think rationally and were perhaps surprised they survived themselves. From all previous attack in Western soil we know that escape is much more difficult than attack itself. Yup, going into effectivelly a warzone border makes zero sense. There were example at exactly start of the war (1-2 weeks) when traffickers in Belarus/Ukraine/Poland used this scheme to smuggle people from BEL, into Ukraine and further by open border into Union, but that way was accidental and closed as soon as situation cleared and border fortified.

IS does not like to cooperate with Hamas (nor with other groups on that matter,although they did some limited contacts and definitelly copied themselves), regard them impure sunni, basically Tehran puppets -which isn't exactly untrue. Theory of Hamas being Iranian asset is gaining ground in wide islamic world, so IS has nothing to do with Gaza; especially Khorasan branch. In their views, such thing as Gaza or Palestinian nation does not exist. Also these kind of radical groups are by default builded in contre to all normal geopolitics. Russia, USA, Israel, they don't care. It's their main virtue in the eyes of islamist edgy teenagers around the world. All other groups sonner or later become somebody's proxies. It's worth to note, since topic was not touched here, that supposed attackers were intercepted on the road in Bryansk...leading to Belarus actually, not Ukraine. I can fully imagine them trying to shelter there for some time (or already having fixed contacts) and then possibly trying to cross into Europe disguised as poor refugees.

Perhaps Nexta fooked again then. Broke own rules of not posting those populists, heh. And we have official version with Chief himself: at the Ukrainian border "window" was opened to harbour terrorist. https://twitter.com/SomeGumul/status/1771520671559905664

If they indeed captured all of them alive (it would be very rare in this kind of events) it can become very ugly from political side. Btw.:

They for long time ago did flashed their knives at Russia, who isn't considered different than infidels in Europe. Most likely it is unconnected with war in Ukraine as such. But one could wander Russians actually tightened security at least inside their capital...well, apparently not. I wouldn't be surprised if they bribed every policemen on their way like Basaiev did. Ironic thing is that US send warnings of possible attacks to Kremlin now and even Tehran before ISKP big attack in Kerman months ago, despite being practically in state of proxy war against them. It's humiliation to Putin that Americans know better than him what is happening inside. Now we will observe how Kremlin will try to spin it.