FancyCat

If they are still doing the grand encirclements, then Putin and co. are still not acknowledging the reality of the Russian position in Ukraine. Perhaps some of it is the military lying to Putin, lying to themselves, I would bet they still cling to the idea that caused them to underestimate Ukraine in the first place. What is certain, if their expectations are unrealistic, so will be their goals, Putin still desires to take the majority of Ukraine soon. A grinding attrition in eastern Ukraine while the Russian army reorganizes and regroups for the rest of the year does not fulfill the goal of taking Ukraine. Tho I wonder if this is even possible anymore, with sanctions sapping their ability to replace losses, could it be that their ability to undertake offensive action will simply decline as time passes vs Ukraine’s increasing ability to mobilize, train and equip their forces (with Western aid)? or maybe they are just stupid and refusing to accept temporary defeat.

I'm not so forlorn on the idea of NATO/EU rejecting Ukraine past the invasion. Obviously, membership during the invasion is impossible but if Russia were to be firmly ejected out of the pre-invaded lands, I think with the advantage in threatening Donbas and Crimea and sanctions, Russia will be forced to come to the table and once the negotiations are concluded, I'm sure public sentiment will pave for easier transition to EU and NATO membership. Some important factors, one, public opinion has shifted to Ukraine, governmental opinion on NATO and Ukraine has shifted and the prime reason for Russia's say in the matter has always been predicated on ensuring Russia wouldn't escalate as a result. Except Russia has thrown out her cards, and basically flipped the table, there isn't anything to fear upsetting Russia, everything is broken already. A EU with Ukraine will be very economically beneficial (isn't there a ton of resources, certainly manpower wise Ukraine is a keeper, NATO will enjoy the most experienced army in the world (and if your a believer in the hand of the military-industrial complex in geopolitics, a extremely potent base to profit from) and to be frank, with the way the Russian military is like right now? The dooming scenario of a quick Russian seizure of the Baltics and a dare at the western and central European states to fight and shed blood and begin a long term conflict for the eastern European states is dead. Instead, NATO as a whole can expect the bordering states (including if Ukraine is accepted) to act as a worthwhile and potent buffer, while it sounds callous, basically means it's not too risky for Germany and France to get bloody for Eastern Europe.

Crimea and Donbas is not tiny by any means. If your implying retaining the pre-invasion borders, that would be utterly humiliating for Putin and Russia since they recognized and sought as part of the invasion to gain all the de jure territories of DPLR so the only thing you could give is the remaining land in the de jure borders and I find that impossible, one, the amount of fortifications to hand over would hurt defense for the future, displaced population, etc, that isn't viable at all either.

I was considering the same thing, what to do with the missing people taken from Ukraine to Russia. In that sense, I find it perfectly acceptable to trade if that's what it takes to recover those kidnapped to Russia. I hope this includes Crimean Tatars, poor souls. God willing they can regain their homeland in Crimea.

I think legitimizing the seizure of Crimea and DPLR is a bad idea, sure don't militarily contest it, but nothing says you can't claim it for the rest of time de jure. Ukraine has international recognition for her borders including Crimea, and DPLR, and giving that up for a Russia that has shown to be less than trustworthy on her signed treaties, and clearly has a huge long standing wish to control Ukraine in some form, so no need to reward bad behavior. As for securing EU and NATO membership, mind you, NATO and EU states have entered with contested borders and frozen conflicts, colonial processions in flux, and some entered with agreements forbidding NATO military bases or activity on their soil, opposition to Ukraine joining NATO is rooted in not spooking Russia, as Russia has basically gone full blown insane now, that consideration should be dropped and Ukraine should be let in with a eye at being diplomatic to Russia, but nothing implying Russia has legitimacy in contesting Ukrainian foreign and domestic policy.

Ukraine stated a referendum is slated for May 1 - 10 in Kherson for a new Republic, I would hope Ukraine can retake it before then. Is the best map https://liveuamap.com/ or ISW for the latest developments?

This was in response to Poland tearing down Communist monuments. The horrid thing is how they are comparing a cemetery of a massacre vs a monument.

If the Russians were lying to themselves, Western Intelligence whos reading Russian lies, would be imparting the same conclusions as the Russians themselves. I saw this one tweet, I cannot find it again, that noted that the Russian intelligence capability on Ukraine was woeful, and emblematic of how Russia and Russian society sees Ukraine and Ukrainians, from a scholar on Eastern European colonialism and imperialism. I'll pull some quotes since paywalled from this Washington Post article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/11/putin-misjudged-ukraine-hubris-isolation/

Sounds quite doable, but Ukrainian deployments to the East, isn't Kharkov a major point to oppose a Russian push from Izyum? Won't they just run into the same units that smashed the northern front and relocated?

Ukraine offered to discuss this further with Russia, over a longer timetable independent of securing a ceasefire and withdrawal of Russian forces to the preinvasion lines. ISW has released a update, looks like Moskva indeed was not equipped with missiles to attack land based targets. Still, the withdrawal of the rest of Russian warships from the area indicates their ability to fire at the southern front is degraded. ISW believes Russia will throw forces piecemeal and not wait for a grand offensive, so looks like the May 9th deadline is looking true. https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1514986517109907461?t=o_IFpPX1I5eQ4KRl_Xq6Lw&s=19

So far Ukraine has seemingly offered a return to the pre-invasion borders as perfectly acceptable for ending the war. I don't think Russia will retreat and give up the territory taken for peace, for one, one of the reasons for intervention was the security of the separatist republics, and restoration of their de jure borders which have not been accomplished. Two, Mariupol needs to be kept. three, with the shiny new equipment Ukraine got, the Russian position pre-invasion is much worse than before if the lines shift back to before. If Russia has returned to earth, their objective is to hold what they have and force a ceasefire where their forces remain on whatever ground they hold. That's the most realistic position Russia will attempt to accomplish imo.

I want to underscore that much of Russian basis for the invasion was based on a completely false premise that, well...it was a rotten house that would collapse with a good shove. It seems clear that the West, Russia, probably every major nation did not regard Ukraine's ability to resist would be this good or Russian war making be this bad. The West, in the most Ukrainian leaning sense seems to have merely regarded it as the beginning to Afghanistan, where occupation ended after decades of bleeding. Russia seems to have completely shut their ears and just believed their lies about Ukraine not being a real nation and not worth it to the population to resist Russian control. (I hesitate to call it lies, it's simply clear they actually believed it to be true, this is akin to at least being a sort of Suez Crisis for Russia, in that their imperial myth is being shattered before their eyes) Now if the basis of Russia's premise was true, the economic, intelligence power of the west wouldn't have mattered for ****. The Ukrainian government would have collapsed, Zelensky would have fled to Poland, sections of the Ukrainian military and government would have turned traitor. Europe would have probably just shrugged and levied minor sanctions. I deeply wonder what Russia took from the end of the American-backed Afghanistan government if anything.

If you recall the videos of a BTR fighting in Mariupol that took out several Russian vehicles, including a tank preoccupied with fighting infantry, I'm gaining a big appreciation for the way Battlefront games stimulates morale, experience and especially suppression. There isn't a lot on the gaming market that let's you reflect Russian soldiers don't want to fight actions without tank support, or that Russian tankers are too overwhelmed to notice a BTR in front of them. It's one thing to read about a German force being suppressed in a book on WWII, another thing entirely to get HD footage of a BTR taking out tanks buttoned down, or TDF being suppressed by machine gun fire. Obviously I think we all wish this never happened, and we could have lived in ignorance of Russian and Ukrainian large scale combat capabilities forever but it's going to be interesting to see how a future Combat Mission shows the conflict. (Or maybe more apt to say how scenario and mod packs do it depending on your design decisions) Haven't been able to play any modern combat games since this started admittedly. God willing, Russia leaves sooner than later.

Ukraine has more night vision equipment than Russia apparently. (Uh anyone think that Russia not being able to do night fighting is just insanely disappointing?) Anyone notice the big chunk of Ukrainian partisans on the ISW map, I think that's Melitopol. Now I don't think ISW is willy nilly covering convoys being blown up map wise with big chunks of contested land so maybe this uprising in Melitopol is substantial enough to contest the city and require reinforcements? https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1514758998221901827?t=s19c7-kNPsMdVP57qFPxYw&s=19

So true, a attack from Izyum into JFO will have Kharkov stabbing them in the back. Really a push on Dnipro is impossible without Kharkov. I guess the question is what's their deployment of units in the area of Kharkov? I believe the reports are that Russia is prepping for a new offensive on Kharkov.

JFO looks solid as hell. Throwing themselves against that fortified region sounds like a recipe for disaster. Best to take their rear from north and south. Notably, with the weather and mud, Ukraine's road networks pretty much have cities and towns as nexus points, and like the Kiev front shows, keeping them isolated and bypassed requires troops Russia does not really have. Now the question is, does Kherson fall before the Russian offensive kicks off? If Kherson falls, with the Black Sea Fleet out of action, can Ukraine threaten Melitopol? If so, there's a chance the southern piercer never kicks off. Also, what the hell is Russia thinking? End the bridges over the Dnipro. The idea that Russia has been holding back that many pro-russian analysts have suggested falls completely flat when Russia can't disrupt the transit west to east. As far as I can tell, there is a completely unbroken road network from Lviv to Dnipro. Russia has bridge layers, Ukraine? Does not? I really want to know if Ukraine has lost S300 systems, or if Russia is lying. Obviously Ukraine will seek to hide that loss immensely. So far the way their sorties are slowing down, indicates a pause, rest, but if they want to succeed at the new offensive, they will need to up their sorties much more soon no? Or do you suppose the S300s are still contesting the sky? So I've seen conflicting info about the Moskva, did it carry missiles used in targeting land based targets or was it purely acting as a fleet anti-air platform?

I wonder how the naval personnel who defected in 2014 feel about the course of the war, 8 years later, do any of the former Ukrainian navy still serve in Crimea or the Black Sea Fleet? If Turkish, or Romanian ships had to rescue sailors, I really hope we get some photos of the warship soon.

Russians got high off their own supply? I would like to ask, whats the possibility Ukraine lets Russia envelop further and then simply keeps draining their flanks? As long as they hold the JFO and its fortified areas, why not let Russia keep advancing narrow road bound pushes? https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1514665548646391812?s=20&t=Z4KlXL594xoZqwuOVOTMAA https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/04/trump-putin-and-the-paradox-of-propaganda.html

According to this article, Operation Mars was intended as a false flag: https://www.rbth.com/history/332003-most-successful-soviet-intelligence-operation Looks like future access to Soviet archives in Russia is gone again....

We have specific amounts, not sure how to embed tweets... 11 MH-17s, 18 155mm Howitzers, 400k artillery rounds, 10 AN/TPQ-36 counter artillery radars, 200 M113 APCs, 2 AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel air surveillance radars, 100 armored high mobility multipurpose wheeled vehicles, 300 switchblades, unmanned coastal defense vessels?? https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1514316351703330829?t=G6wjHjVieG5wG-0kQ0byiA&s=19

Something to note, prior to war Russia provided a demand for NATO forces to pull back to the 1997 borders, in effect giving up Eastern Europe. The ability for the West to negotiate out of this crisis basically required impossible preconditions that would have ended the NATO alliance.

You know the funny thing is, Russia did pretty well in carrying out Maskirovka, in deceiving France and Germany and their populations in concealing their intentions of annexing Ukraine, and in countering American and British warnings about what was coming. Maybe too well. I think the shock of what Russian intentions truly were, had a big impact on shifting German public opinion on Russia and Ukraine. Maybe there was no other way of keeping Germany from shifting her foreign policy and military policy after invading, but I have no doubt Russia delivered the equivalent of a knife into the back of Germany in terms of destroying public and government consensus on Russia. Germany had always betted on increasing economic ties with Russia to be key to ending Russian aggression. The fact that Russia undertook a full scale invasion with a intent of annexing all of Ukraine plays too close to German history to ignore. Had Russia only undertook a operation to kick Ukraine out of the contested oblasts, no doubt this public and government change have been more limited.

The reason why I am emphasizing how their rhetoric and propaganda impacts their decision making is that most analysts have assumed it was just packaged koolaid for the Russian population/foreign consumption and Putin isn't actually a believer. If the man is truly dying, or aware of his own mortality, if he truly believes in the Russian imperial project, he indeed needs to strike now, before Ukraine gets stronger, and not merely continue the chunk biting previously. Chunk biting won't secure his legacy. Something else to emphasize, Russian imperialist rhetoric emphasizes Ukraine is key to a Russian Imperial revival. Russia without Ukraine's population, Ukraine's resources is not a viable Russian Empire. If the actual goal is to freeze Ukraine out of NATO and EU, cause chaos in Ukraine, limited invasion, taking chunks of Ukraine in small bits accomplishes the goals of doing so. I'm no military oriented person but I would say destroying the Ukrainian military via a limited invasion would have played much better to Russian doctrine than this full scale invasion. Limited invasion and Western sanctions would have been of limited impact. This is why I don't believe that the goal was merely to show off Russian power or anything short of Russian annexation of Ukraine cause a limited invasion would have served those above stated "real" goals of Russia nicely and with much less risk. No, I think it's very clear that Russia's stated goals are truly it's goals. That when Putin declares the Ukrainian state as illegitimate, and the Ukrainian people as being misled ethnic Russians, I think he believes in it 100%. This is why many people were thrown off about this occurring in the first place. A true believer in the righteousness of their cause is much more different than a power hungry realist.

Imo, this illustrates that Russia still hopes to conquer all of Ukraine, yes I'm sure many Russian analysts are aware it is impossible, but in the same vein that Russia undertook the option most unlikely to succeed and therefore the most dangerous, outlandish and unthinkable to occur in a full scale invasion of Ukraine, I think we underestimate just how screwed up Putin/Russian government is calculating the odds right now. I know Putin has a aura of being right, but part of it isn't just choosing right, it's also knowing when to walk away. Had he chosen a limited invasion, he probably could have taken the rest of the contested oblasts, damaged the Ukrainian military heavily, kept his own forces intact largely, and limited Western involvement. Rinse, repeat every few years, boil the frog. Also, a limited invasion would have damaged the hell out of Zelensky's government, by forcing a calculation between peace or heavy fighting. Full scale invasion with overly loud signals of full annexation and of near genocidal intent for the Ukrainian population, the frog is jumping out. Meshes well with reports that many Ukrainians were shocked this invasion happened (tho I will readily accept being wrong if resident Ukrainians chime in)

Wow I completely forgot about that. France is dearly protective of their defence industry, it must kill them to be so sidelined in Ukraine due to the election. Once the election ends, I would bet on big-ticket items being offered, the opportunity is just too great to let the U.S or Germany or the U.K to have all the money. Macron of course can't tout it too much, a lot of it will be free (till the war ends) but the long term advantage of securing a Eastern European state for armament sales is going to undoubtedly outweigh any prior Russian sales or other Russian anger. Plus, while it is important to underscore that Russia is heavily disadvantaged and will lose this war in some factor, national survival being so important a factor in Ukrainian resolve and resistance, it is deeply important to emphasize that Russia's imperialist, colonial mindset in it's population and government will not disappear and die so easily. We saw in the 2nd Chechen War (that Putin made his bones on) Russian humiliation forged into revenge. Yes, Russia is gonna be screwed now, but regime change is impossible from the outside due to nukes, and impossible on the inside due to a somewhat docile population. (No offense to Russians but Maidan, the Orange Revolution illustrates Ukrainian civil society is very strong and active) Ukraine will continue to maintain a active, upgraded and aware stance towards it's larger neighbor and that entails all the lovely money for Western armament sales. Looks like China will lose out. Ukrainian arms industry will certainly have some good selling points afterwards, I expect the Ukrainian arms industry to flourish in spite of NATO armaments as Ukraine will be undeniably worried about being left alone in a future fight. Ukrainian civil society is also a deep important factor in Ukrainian civilian resolve and resistance, we now know that the U.S prewar warning that Russia prepped kill lists targeting Ukrainian government, civil society was true, and that decapitating the civil society was just as important as ending the Ukrainian government and destroying it's military.