FancyCat

I hate how we are using big numbers for aid to underscore how valuable it is except most military aid was already paid for and sitting around in warehouses....it's just sheer misinformation, all of this equipment was basically made and sitting around doing nothing. Whenever anyone asks why are we spending so much, it really isn't a lot...

Civilian and stationary targets are easier to target than roving HIMARS, and their fake replicas.

Giving the Iranian government the excuse to crush u.s supported uprisings is exactly what we don't want to do. Let the protests occur without letting them be overly seen as U.S supported is key to letting reforms occur hopefully. Russia is actually terrorist scum, forcing the civilian population to flee Kherson, would allow one, Russian forces to flee alongside, two, give Russian forces coverage as they flee. The dam also would flood the left bank as the right bank is the higher elevation side.

I'm not sure we can trust statements from people inside Russia, as the ability for the state to make life much worse for the individual is pretty high. If she resettles in Europe with her daughter, and starts spouting BS about sanctions hurting Russia, then I would say shes a plant.

Reminder, punishing Ukraine and it's citizens is important domestically and militarily as well. Recall examples during WWII that note that attacks which stuck the enemy homeland were morale improving for front line German soldiers. Also lends boost to failing belief in the Russian government and country in general. Domestic morale loss in response to Ukrainian advances can be effectively responded to with attacks like this. Any win against Ukraine, even the war crime variety is still a win. It's the best substitute since the battlefield goes poorly. In that sense, it's either the choice of terrorizing Ukrainians or Russians believing all is lost, and for now, the idea of losing to Ukraine remains impossible for Russia to deal with so the former is the best. Desperation but also a signal as to how Russians view peace and Ukraine. Clearly they have not accepted the possibility of defeat. I pointed it out before, Russia will keep escalating until it recognizes Ukraine as a independent state with the right to exist. (Sounds counter intuitive, but long term and short term, I think the belief Ukraine is not independent, and aspects like not recognizing Ukrainians as a people with the right to a state independent of Russia drives this war, if Russia were to acknowledge that it has no right to Ukraine, it would be rhetorically be deescalation.)

EU approves training mission, up to 15k trained personnel is suggested, two year mandate. Important to emphasize, and as seen in the recent posts from frontline personnel, training is essential, if we assume the worst case and Russia pursues mobilization and long war, Ukraine will not only need equipment but personnel and money to wage this war, so continued EU support with money and personnel is just as important as equipment. Use of Europe as safe harbor is all important especially as all of Ukraine is under threat of long range attack again. Important psychologically as well.

ATACMS sooner than later plz.

Any amount of delayed logistics is good. The bottleneck is now not only the crossing of the Dnipro, but just getting it to the left bank of the river will be a problem. Right now, Russia is forced to use it's inadequate road supply to both ship to Crimea to then head to Kherson. Recall for example that you only needed to use road supply from Crimea to the front before the bridge strike. A huge additional length in inefficient logistics. Just complete brainworms.

You know before it happened, I was under impression that troops along the right bank of the Dnipro river would not advance along the river since it is only 5 miles from one bank to the other, but seems to not be enough for Russian fire control to lock down the other side of the river. Does not bold well for a successful defense once Ukraine attempts a crossing once Ukraine retakes all of the right bank at least to me.

Long thread on Russian logistics. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1581023172346118144.html Nothing new, Russia will need to either repair the bridge, or effectively use the road network via Novoazovsk-Mariupol-Berdyansk-Melitopol to supply the southern front.

A good point was made elsewhere, these RU bloggers are usually associated with the FSB as in the case of Igor, or Wagner as with Greyzone, could be the MoD moving to eliminate internal opposition.

Zoka also noted playfully that he/she would have likely been also listed had they been in Russia.

I doubt that Putin will be charting a moderate course, what is certain is the same sort of actions that underpin the arrest of anyone speaking up or protesting in public where even those who were prowar were snatched, apply here. Anything not government approved is suppressed or given full awareness that they exist at the government's pleasure. (Which gives full indication as to what factor the tv shows have of being controlled, and what isn't controlled opposition) The RU nats must be furious, to have their loyalty and desire to improve the Russian military backfire on them. Fact that they are getting the full spectrum of RU bloggers indicates they want no dissent and more control, and not any individual running afoul.

Nothing wrong with being paid, the rest of the MIC is getting paid, the issue is Musk put his foot in his mouth right before SpaceX asked for the money. Had he shut his yapper, I have no doubt Ukraine would be strongly and 100% behind the U.S government paying full cost. At this point, it’s probably a decent chance to get a small discount off covering the rest of the costs SpaceX has been shouldering.

BBC Russia.

Russians are operating under some mistaken falsehoods, past Western folding and reluctance to confront Russia means Russia regards the West as weak and easily pushable and dividable. As we can see, their answer to Ukraine moving forward is to escalate and indicate their willingness to go all in and continue esculatory moves in the belief that the West will fold and insist on Ukraine accepting a deal where Russia isn't the total defeated party. As long as Russia escalates, the West needs to match. It must be drilled into their skulls that Ukraine will not be abandoned. Russia must learn to respect the West again and understand that the total invasion of Ukraine was a complete red line for relations for between Russia and the West and that breaking that red line means no happy partition of Ukraine, no bribery with Russian oil and gas for Ukrainian blood, none of that. The fact that this invasion was undertaken in the first place, underscores that Russian society has lost its moral and ethical compass, and it must be drilled in that invading Ukraine should never occur again, or be a thinkable solution in the future, (and if that means more Russian blood be spilled, so be it) and underscores, how dire the West's perception worldwide has become in reacting to competition by other state actors. This invasion should never have reached this point. Putin should not have the lesson that NATO would flood Ukraine with weapons and equipment that would sap the Russian ability to wage war for a decade or more occur in real time, he should have expected it before the invasion. In that sense, the West has failed catastrophically to project a image that informed all parties including Russia of the Western red lines. I don't think Putin understands that the red lines for the West were crossed, he still thinks he can get Scholz to break away from Biden, or France to stop supplying Ukraine, etc. He must be rid of that idea before Russia will find a off-ramp, or desire to find one.