FancyCat

Decent chance it's a message and the NYT has been chosen as the carrier for it. What the message is? Who knows.

The only way I could see Ukraine killing Dugina would be as a warning against Russia attempting to kill any Ukrainian officials. In that sense, killing someone not important or someone less important like Dugina's father would make sense. Otherwise, there isn't any reason for Ukraine to kill her. Certainly no reason to lose whatever assets exist in Russia to do so for such a worthless target.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-new-offensive-is-fueled-by-captured-russian-weapons-11664965264 There was more in the article, but it was just quoting Oryx so I quoted out the stuff from Ukrainians. I just wanna say, my lord they screwed themselves, the Russians. Also, I quite like the idea of crewing and keeping their well earned captures, even tho they aren't meant to have them lol.

BBC Russia has done some amazing work in Russia throughout the conflict. Article below details losses among the 2nd Guards Spetsnaz Brigade of the GRU. Apparently lots of officers dead throughout its time in Ukraine since February, latest, was defending Lyman. Of particular note, the BBC reports that Russia attempts to hide the composition of units that are forced into defeats, emphasizing only less prestigious units. A example given in the article, turns out personnel from the 18th Guards Motor Rifle Division, part of the Russian Navy’s Kaliningrad garrison, the 11th Army Corps, was also stationed in Kharkiv oblast and overrun during the Izyum offensive. https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-63134219

They don't blow up the ammo dumps, they don't disable their abandoned vehicles, they don't bother coordinating withdrawals, they don't blow up equipment that would give Ukraine big advantages, their camps look like **** most of the time, I find it entirely reasonable they forgot a box of gold teeth in their haste to run. They don't even deny their actions are horrid, some of the crimes have as evidence social media postings from the accused.

I really hope this is faked by Ukraine otherwise, you know I feel like Ukrainian resolve might just bulldoze it's way into Crimea based on outrages like this alone.

Looks like Russia being the source of the pipeline sabotage is advancing. NS1 flows were not sanctioned and had only stopped flowing due to Russian "maintenance". NS2 was deliberately stopped by Germany as a sanction against Russia for launching the invasion of Ukraine. If Germany folds and reallows NS2 to become operational, it would effectively divide the Western alliance.

I go back and forth on this, but after Azov being released I think I firmly believe there is little threat of a mass overthrow of Putin. Polling like this which essentially is fine with whatever Putin does, says to me that if he really needed to leave Ukraine in a total loss, the Russian people aren’t going to toss him out. Now, the elite class, different matter.

Finally, some short-term aid.

Interesting little article. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/03/we-cannot-win-russias-military-veterans-opposing-the-ukraine-war-a78876

Well, some of it is true.

I'm not sure these military bloggers can be relied upon to transmit the feelings of the Russian high command. Assuming there isn't a possibility of a mid-level or low-level military coup (and Im pretty confident that isn't gonna happen anytime soon) I don't think they have enough info to be able to say with confidence that General so and so of the Russian Army will let Putin fall, or support whatever faction is about to overthrow him either. Also, Putin relies on entities other than the military for domestic security and his own personal security anyway. The reports that Putin got rid of the FSB leaders in a clearing house to reform them have not panned out, unless they hold the gun to Putin's head and not the other way around, most of his power groups are still in power and seem loyal to him still.

Did anyone in February think that Ukraine would have the prospect of a navy in the Black Sea? Obviously Ukraine will not take the vessel until the war is over, but interesting that Russian pressure on Turkey failed to stop the ship from continuing production.

One good benefit is that Russia might be caught off guard by the rapid ZSU effort, Putin has shown a large degree of cautiousness in escalation, much to the dismay of the hardliners seeking bigger and quicker efforts at ensuring russian victory in the war. NATO will be watching closely for movement on the nuclear front, and while I assume tactical nukes are easier to move, I also assume that NATO is dialed in deep (and certainly probably Ukraine too) into the Russian command structure.

Hey, we have evidence of Ukraine being capable of simultaneous operations across two fronts! I know the prior stuff technically had movement on both Kherson and Kharkiv fronts, but I think simultaneous moving units on both fronts exceeds the prior more grinding movement on Kherson and the rapid Kharkiv advance we saw prior. It's wild that most of the Russians refuse to treat the Ukrainians with any respect. I know its to protect their ego, and worldview, but dang, accept the Loss. You will find it easier to fight back if you can accurately note the disposition of your enemy.

Things change, 2008 and 2014, the West basically let it happen. The West has become more and more important to sustaining him as his position in Russia has declined amid the crackdown on him, any moves he makes in the near term in the assumption he can gain power in Russia will be to appease the West and any long term worries, Ukraine should be prepared and hopefully in NATO.

Belarus was being prepped, whether 20k is actually moved is another idea.