FancyCat

Considering the inherent benefits afforded to NATO vs Russia (or would we be talking about peer vs peer, NATO vs a actually competitive Russia?) vs Ukraine vs Russia, shouldn't it be expected that Ukraine is not utilizing NATO style war? Now, I will attest to being wrong plenty, so feel free to correct me, and certainly I may be missing the mark on what your saying. If we are referring to how Ukraine is unable to do coordinated and planned assaults, I do want to suggest that certain aspects that are particular to the war, make it exceedingly difficult for offensive tactical operations to proceed, and that if NATO were subjected to the same conditions, its not entirely clear that they would be able to fall into the same pitfalls as Ukraine and Russia are. Referring to the RUSI report, pg.62, quoted below, Pg. 60, on EMS warfare, Pg. 58, UAS warfare, The RUSI report of course is pre-offensives, so who knows how Ukraine is adapting, but I guess what I'm suggesting, do we actually know if we removed the same advantages afforded by NATO like air supremacy, EMS supremacy, UAS supremacy, the ability for encrypted communications to be kept, and placed NATO forces under the same constraints requiring broad dispersion, UAS profilteration by the enemy (and currently UAS profiltation in NATO is vastly centralized and not afforded to tactical units), do we think NATO would do better than Ukraine at launching tactical attacks? Oh, and the limitation of having major losses of experienced personnel. NATO HQs in the RUSI report are pointed out as functionally impossible on pg. 54. Of course if NATO retained the advantages of air superiority and a home front safe from the frontlines, etc, a NATO style war would be highly successful.

Plus considering the record of caution by the West, while it's important to note things could change, it's probably a safe bet that any isr, targeting packages, etc for strikes on Russia proper, will be very strictly limited to stuff like equipment, personnel directly involved in the Ukrainian conflict and probably not leadership. I mean we still are kneecapping Ukraine with no Leopard tanks. And no ATACMS. So worry about ISR seems preemptive considering the fact these are not provided. And you know, say Ukraine did want to strike a target and asked the U.S for verification on targets, it would be best for the U.S to ensure everything goes well and the target and not collateral is hit.

From what I recall, the Moskva, Ukraine asked the U.S for confirmation on its location before firing. Mind you, I'm not so sure ISR sharing is "act of war". First, Ukraine did just hit the one of the airbases vital to the Russian nuclear triad, with their own indigenous weapons. So we should recognize that out of things being serious, that would probably count as something to escalate over, no? Has not occurred yet. Let us also double back and recall Russian statements have long accused the west of sharing intelligence and providing weapons to Ukraine as acts of war. Example, Moskva. Then the naval boat attacks on the "grain escorts" in the Black Sea. Furthermore, mind you, Russia claims Crimea, Donbas as their territory. Strikes on them, their forces could also be claimed as acts of war and be justified under your scenario. Which they might be, but Russia has chosen not to act on it, thereby legitimating it.

As we have seen before, Ukraine usually strikes with indigenous weapons, than when the world does not collapse, the West starts letting their stuff be used across the line. I like how strikes in Crimea are being normalized. No longer does "Crimea bombed" bring out the press or the skyrocketing "escalation" rhetoric. Slowly, but steadily, Ukraine is normalizing the world to largely ignore Russian cries of Armageddon on Crimea. (tho Russia switching away from the rhetoric is also important, in that they can no longer sustain the red lines and must relocate) corrected coordinates are in the replies to first tweet.

It is reported that Morocco is now providing spare parts to Ukraine for the T-72 per the United States. So here is the interesting part about potential spots for a Ukrainian offensive. One, the urban Donbas is pretty nil. Two, Svatove is possible. But I think a offensive into Melitopol is most likely. Once you cut the land bridge, any transfer of Russian forces from Donbas to Crimea, or Crimea to Donbas will take a significant amount of time. Meanwhile, Ukraine will be able to transfer units with superior interior lines. Russian air power, Russian artillery is the biggest issue right now, the continued supplies of anti air and counter battery artillery by the west attests to that. Remove Russian air power from striking at a Ukrainian mechanized push, and silence Russian artillery and we may see a gun run down to Melitopol. I definitely think invading Crimea is possible, and more importantly, the ability to launch a offensive into Crimea will absolutely force Russia to juggle both defending the Donbas and Crimea via one very at risk bridge and a very long supply tail. That will open up new possibilities for Ukraine to choose where to push.

I suppose it's possible. Maybe. Not really? There's a chance he never meets Putin. What if he spills the beans before Putin? What possible message would Putin be getting that would cause others to try and intercept it? He's losing? He knows he's losing. Even if the military and inner circle is keeping information from him, what info could be given from the west that would allow Putin to believe and act on it?

CIA director Burns (who was previously a diplomat who served in Russia) has travelled to Turkey to meet Russian government officials and spymasters to convey messages and have discussions, no reason for a convicted smuggler to be the messenger.

Arms under the table and under sanctions regimes are a smuggler's specialty, 10 years out of the world, how many of those connections are there that aren't accessible to the rest of Russian intelligence? Infamy is also not the ideal trait for people skirting the law. How many people have seen his face? It's gonna be real hard for him to go get equipment when he's being spotted 3 times over. His specialty was moving arms from Eastern Europe worldwide. I like to see him try that now. Would probably bet that this was more for the PR and for specially making the Biden admin look bad and cause division than anything else.

He’s been in jail for 10 years, he’s an arms dealer, who thinks he retains enough connections, money, to start up his business? And if he did, it’s likely with Russian government support, meaning if not him, it would have been someone else doing it, making it irrelevant. He was slated be released in 2029, only 7 years later, wait a bit longer and maybe Russia decides Bout can finish the 5 years and says no exchange.

On that note, it is probably true that any discord caused by this swap, only Griner, and not the other, is entirely a side effect Russia has calculated as beneficial. We also must note that despite the detainment of people in Russia, the fact of the matter was the West was fine with Russia till this invasion. Placing the burden on Griner for going to Russia, ignores the reality Russia was not condemned or treated with the appropriate condemnation in 2014 or recently. The fact that people seem be criticizing Griner on the basis that Russia is being truthful about her being properly caught committing a crime illustrates that reality. Change up the scenario, replace Russia for China, Putin for Xi, and I'm sure the majority of people would question the arrest as politically motivated instead of arguing that it was proper for Russia to do this. Reality is that Russia is a enemy of the United States, there isn't any reason to trust them, believe them, or think that they will be fair, certainly not in a prisoner exchange.

If the Russian government says the sky is blue, I'm going outside to double check. Assuming that they are being truthful is foolish. Especially considering the hybrid warfare Russia specializes in. Saying Griner is guilty, or deserving of this very harsh sentence that Russia clearly took advantage of is missing the forest for the trees, which is Russia lies. No reason to assume they are being truthful in Griner's case or any other American in Russian custody.

Thanks for providing that interview link, you reminded me about the Kyiv Independent's expose on the Foreign Legion. Part 1 was in August, Part 2 just released basically. Tldr, the foreign legion needs complete command sacking and reform, it's corrupt, treats personnel like trash, and is actively harming the ability of the legion to be a capable force. Interesting that the interview above, he says that people went to other units rather than remain in the foreign legion. Maybe this is largely isolated to the legion, and can be handled easier as a result. Hopefully this gets the government to kick the command in the teeth. https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/investigation-international-legion-misappropriation

Kraft is not wrong, as much as the West’s aid policy is assisting Ukraine, easy lay ups like Leopard 1s, that would save more Ukrainian lives are instead placed on the wayside in favor of freaking BMP-1s, the MIC would love to get up and running but defeated by the need to not provoke Putin or Russia or scare Scholz. (I care not for logistics or whatever bull****, the fact is western tanks don’t give as much suffering for their crews when hit, but we still have Germany being terrorized at the idea of Ukrainians living)(I will not hide my disgust, the mraps illustrate how useful western aid is, yet here we are just waiting for scholz to grow a freaking spine) Interview with Zelensky, a deep contrast to the beginning of the war, instead of seeking merely for a return to pre-invasion, he hopes to ensure this is the last invasion by Russia. And he makes a good point, every generation of Ukraine has suffered, what is more suffering now compared to passing it to the next generation? I doubt ukraine will seek to end this war without ensuring the end of the Russian interference in Ukraine, and that requires the liberation of the Donbas and Crimea. Only then can Ukraine join NATO, for NATO will never be confident enough to accept an Ukraine without complete territorial integrity and therefore, no more Russian constant aggression and interference with overtones of civil war and internal conflict. A Ukraine that accepts the loss of the Donbas and Crimea, paves the way for further annexations down the line. Especially after the 4 annexations this year. https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2022-volodymyr-zelensky/

Recall the Russian VDV soldier who fled from the war to France and got a fancy book publishing deal? He’s a ****ter. I hope France revokes his asylum.

Eh, if we expand the term "resources", I think there's a great argument for the current invasion and annexation, had it been successful, maybe Russia would not have materially benefited, but the ego, prestige, the shattering of the international order, the marked decline of the west are all benefits for the regime, if not Russia as a whole. Also, consider the Soviet Union. Took some time, but Ukraine eventually became a compliant integral part of the USSR. (Took a lot of genocide but Putin had plans for that as we know) Consider Chechnya, tho much smaller, no doubt a puppet regime woild have been installed with a long term plan at union state status akin to Belarus. The Soviet Union was able to happily trade resources and profit for foreign companies to come in and invest expertise and money, no doubt had Ukraine folded, the same would have occurred eventually.

Leaning towards the tu-141 since we have much more evidence for their use than this new drone.

Talk about diluting the term terrorism. That said, it’s more for domestic consumption than internationally In my opinion.

I care not for what is its replacement is for NATO as long as it can be conceivably called a "flakpanzer".

Fun fact that many people seem to forget, Ukraine was a essential part of the Soviet Union, a source of manpower, including educated personnel and schools, and manufacturing, for example, the Tu-141 was produced in Kharkiv. Not to mention the Moskva, from Mykolaiv, etc. Always annoys me when I see prowess of the Russian military based on the Soviet era, both WWII and cold war used to denigrate Ukraine, probably the best PR feat Russia accomplished was both casting Ukraine and Ukrainians as Russians while ignoring Ukraine as a vital part of the Soviet Union.

What the hell was Russian air defense doing if it was a Tu-141? Sleeping?

Hey, at least the Gepards indicate that solutions against drones can be inexpensive. Just gotta get the Germans and Swiss to settle ammo and restart production and sprinkle them liberally across NATO.