FancyCat

Some levity... It is interesting that the Russian military continues to hide losses and the population is beginning to realize the scale. I had started doubting that the Russian people could be revived to oppose the war but perhaps these massive losses will change that.

We need this war ended sooner than later. Ukraine needs western tanks, more SEAD, more artillery, western fighter aircraft and sooner than later. We cannot have this war bog down and turn the rest of Eastern Ukraine into complete hellscape. Right now, air defense is coming online, with resulting boosts to the defense of the home front and rear lines. Great. Ukraine according to some articles switched to quiet lobbying for the big ticket stuff. I'm still annoyed that Iraq got F-16s and Abrams tanks. Iraq's government was reformed in 2004, with F-16s arriving in 2011, 7 years. 4 years for Abrams tanks so I suppose it's only fair that Ukraine must wait except screw fairness, we cannot allow this war to go on for 4 years. Ukraine keeps their cards close to their chest. And what cards Ukraine has shown have been misdirection. Probably they will seek out the liberation of Kherson by the end of the year with a push to conquer the Svatove line, hopefully before the end of the winter as well.

Honestly this is extremely important to consider. Things like eliminating infrastructure, supply lines and industry, a lot of that was not targeted, and even today, the narrative is that Putin is holding back for some. I recall the impressive barrage at the very beginning of the war, surely it was targeted to wipe out Ukrainian defenses but significant targets remained standing, and hardship on civilians could have been much worse with attacks on civilian infrastructure not undertaken until recently. Let's not forget that there are formations that are TDF manning large? parts of the front line and while Ukraine has had a cadre of trained and semi-trained personnel, NATO training of Ukrainian personnel is focused primarily on training new cadres of civilian mobilized personnel in basic training. Clearly Ukraine needs to use civilian to military training pipeline to fill in and replace losses. There isn't any reason for Russia to not generate the same sort of TDF alike and Belarus might be very important for that, and at that point, parity may be achieved in portions of the front.

A nuclear armed state like Russia will never be neutralized. Let’s just get that out the way. Next, Putin is very unlikely to be overthrown, 3rd, the only goal is for Ukraine to regain all lands, as a result, anything that allows Ukraine to pursue that goal, including negotiations is good. Nothing has indicated the talks need to have Ukraine say anything but “get off our land” as a condition for ceasefire in the same manner, Russia spent the prior talks giving the same unrealistic conditions for peace.

My impression of the ban on talks with Putin was for internationally, for Ukraine to effectively mark Russia as a rogue/“terrorist” state. I believe at least in the West, that has been achieved. Now, that has gone down, several points about this can be made. One, the U.S pressuring Ukraine to “talk” or concede something. If we take the view that the U.S controls Ukraine, a common pro-Russian point, with all the implications it brings, the U.S is indicating to Russia and to states and people with more pro-Russian sentiment that they want to push peace. On the face of it, it’s bad, but I think it’s good. Signaling concern for the views of other states internationally is important, especially for countering Russia. The same principles of Ukraine positions, the withdrawal of all Russian forces in Ukraine before talks remains. The concession of what is a now a minor issue does more than retaining the ban.

There is popular sentiment and group sentiment, or in better wording, if an issue is not popularized, elite or influential special interests have more leeway to influence policy. Popular support remains pretty bipartisan in the U.S. If the issue dies down in perception, I remain confident that lobbying interests like the Military Industrial Complex will maintain pressure to keep Congress on the path of supporting Ukraine. Maybe more visible movements to differ on aid, like more oversight or the image of oversight, but basically the same aid occurs.

Meh on Germany forging/maintaining ties with China, the same ties exist between the U.S and China. Normal competition rhetoric.

Seen some discussion around Kherson and whether Russia is truly retreating or not and whether Ukraine is making a mistake by not contesting the retreat by advancing rapidly to pin the Russians down, i just want to point out, the most important goal should be the withdrawal of Russian forces from Kherson, and Ukraine retaking the whole right bank of the Dnipro. If that can be achieved by allowing Russia to move resources back to the left bank under fire, without utterly destroying Kherson in urban combat, even if it allows Russian forces to escape in larger numbers and equipment, preserving Ukrainian equipment and the lives of its soldiers and civilians are much more important overall and benefits Ukraine way more than pinning Russia down in Kherson.

Grr on lack of Western tanks but any tank is better than no tanks and these will start appearing in December so very good. Also notable the entrance and publicity of a financial partner (the Dutch) alongside the U.S in funding the refitting of the tanks in 3rd NATO country, another mark for NATO staying united helping Ukraine and opposing Russia.

Where was the 900 billion number from? Everything i see indicates its been less than that years past and the next year is about 750 billion? And of course we spend more on the military vs other countries, as we see, China and others have vastly differing economics, meaning they spend way different amounts on things like personnel or equipment costs. Rich country, rich costs for manufacturing and personnel. Can't really outsource production or personnel to China can we?

Imo, while Turkey is a bastard, if the consideration is ensuring Ukraine wins, the position of Turkey as mediator and neutral party serves both NATO and Ukraine quite well. For example, Turkey has provided good diplomatic weight to counter Russian anti-Ukrainian PR (grain deal for example) and the symbolic military aid before February is important to note. The fact that Turkey serves Russia in several ways makes it essential for leveraging stuff like this promise in the tweet. The most important thing in the grain deal is that Ukraine gets to export grain, end stop. Nothing else matters. Grain leaves, Ukraine gets money, the world economy and the poorest do not suffer as badly as a total stop of exports. Whoever benefits alongside, whoever gets brownie points, the essential thing is that the grain leaves Ukraine. Should this promise hold, aside from striking the grain infra in Ukraine, the shipping lane is essentially secure. Extremely important, Ukraine can secure land based objects with air defense and be functional after suffering losses due to Russian attacks, but any Russian strike on shipping will effectively end the grain exports.

Meh, Turkey is annoying but the bilateral promises to Sweden and Finland are more than sufficient for protecting them in the short and mid-term vs Russia. Lovely to see Russia with utter egg on its face regarding the grain deal.

Very positive wording from Zelensky on Macron call about French aid to Ukraine.

I'm unconcerned, way more important is the portion discussing how Defense Secretary Austin was giddy about the pledges of aid provided by other states in mid-October during the Ramstein conference. I think that can be attested due to more evidence of high end equipment being sent to Ukraine, for example Italy. https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3604150-italy-provides-ukraine-with-two-m270-systems-six-pzh-2000-about-30-selfpropelled-howitzers-media.html This is a lot of new stuff heading in. Not sure if this was missed or linked, but NYT posted a article detailing Russia's loss of artillery superiority in the South. We have reports of Ukraine shifting to tactical targets using HIMARS, which one can take as bad as they no longer have strategic targets, as Russia has finally hid them better, or as Ukraine depletes the targets, are able to focus more and more fire on less important targets, and therefore shift more fire in general towards breaking the frontlines and depleting Russian forces before advances. I think it's a good sign combined with everything else. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/29/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-artillery.html

If Russia wants to use their remaining missiles on economic targets, while Ukraine obtains more Air defense and more artillery and more ability to stop Russian artillery on the battlefield...by all means, let the HIMARS and the SPGs and MLRS and NATO counter battery radars do their work Russia. Acting just like Germany and useless V1 and V2 rockets.....

As far as I know, a significant barrier for Black Sea transit is the cost of insurance. Until the initiative, no insurance company would insure the ships attempting to break the blockade. As long as a threat to shipping exists, even if lowered by strikes on Russian assets that can target shipping, one strike by Russia would effectively end the transit as insurance companies would not be able to bet on Russia not successfully doing this again. Unless a relevant government undertakes the steps to nationalize or provide shipping otherwise to transport the grain, and begins the process of guarding the ships, Russia will probably still achieve the goal of cutting off transit by striking a ship. The biggest issue is for Russia, daring to declare the UN and Turkey as not fair and neutral observers and taking steps to smear them despite joining the initiative in the first place and participating fine till recently. Turkey of course benefits a lot from Russia, and is reliant on Russia in many aspects, but it's leading role as a negotiation country probably helps Turkey's image internationally and I doubt disturbing that will be tolerated by Turkey. I am reminded of the Russian withdrawal from the UN security council on the eve of the Korean War, which paved the way for the UN intervention. Foolish then, foolish now.

According to this noted on October 7th, October 24th, Now on the 30th, once Russia withdrew their inspectors, now suddenly Turkey and the UN can expand the inspection teams to 10? Sounds to me Russia was dragging their feet in some manner and suddenly once they withdrew, instead of needing to accommodate some Russian delay on personnel or etc, they can simply bypass their prior stalling. Source: https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/updates

97 vessels are waiting to cross the straits but cannot due to lack of inspections. Hopefully without slow *** Russian inspectors slowing **** down, this will proceed faster. https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/information-note-30-october-2022

There has been a backlog in vessels being inspected before going thru the corridor, From October 24, only 5 inspection teams. https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/information-note-24-october-2022 The latest release indicates 10 teams are being provided by Turkey and the UN after Russian withdrew their teams. So in a sense, without Russian input, it looks like Turkey and UN are moving ahead without Russian participation and hopefully without Russian input, this is designed to simply push thru with the inspections, of which there are large numbers of vessels underway and awaiting inspection in Turkish waters. Not a issue for new ships to not leave Ukraine if they never get past the backlog due to lack of inspection.

i will point out urban combat is absolutely horrid for non-combatants, especially since Russian military don't have much respect or willingness to abide by IHL, many people fleeing may be pro-Russian, many might well need to flee simply to escape the absolutely most horrible scenario of a urban defensive battle that goes out for weeks, as Mariupol shows, civilians suffer very badly in those conditions. I only hope they aren't filtered too much, and can escape from Russia back to the EU.

I seriously doubt Russian morale or strength will hold up even in urban combat. Even Lyman took what? (Checks wiki) Hmph. 4 weeks. Okay, I stand corrected. Big difference tho, they had supply lines. We shall see if Russia holds up even if Ukraine reaches the outskirts and supply lines are cut via regular artillery.

Question is, have Ukrainian forces advanced to within artillery range of the Dnipro? Everything has gone silent so no more movement info.

Kharkiv came as a big shock so makes sense they want to prep for the same in Kherson.

https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/18/2003098052/-1/-1/1/UKRAINE-FACT-SHEET-OCT-14.PDF The latest fact sheet, lots of things aren't being replaced. 200 M113s, those 20 Mi-17s we're intended for Afghanistan, hundreds of Humvees, 440 MRAPs, and I'm sure there's a ton else that isn't being replaced once it leaves our warehouses.