NamEndedAllen
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Posts posted by NamEndedAllen
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18 minutes ago, sross112 said:
If I understand it right, the announced ones were the old versions and those probably wouldn't add much
On paper that may well seem correct. The most recent Russian fighters look like formidable opponents. On paper. But we have seen the real world in combat of quite a bit of Russian war fighting equipment. And the quality of Russian training. Likewise, we have seen the real world performance of NATO equipment, as well as the combat performance of the Ukrainian military. So I’ll celebrate the looming addition of F-16s to the fight.
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The €500 million is part of the bloc's European Peace Facility, which aims to help embattled countries, such as Ukraine.
EU foreign ministers have failed to agree on new funds to finance weapons for Ukraine, after Hungary blocked the decision over the country's biggest Bank, OTP Bank, appearing on Ukraine's list of "international sponsors of the war".Ukraine's anti-corruption agency blacklisted the Hungarian bank because they say "it provides preferential credit terms to the Russian military, i.e. actually rewards them for the committed war crimes."
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7 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Communication, once received and processed, shapes perception.
Confusion to our enemies!
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This just cannot be good. Apologies if this confirmation was already posted and it missed it.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-ammo-storage-site-obliterated-where-huge-fireball-seen
New satellite imagery of an ammunition and explosives storage site just to the west of the Ukrainian city of Khmelnitsky shows that most of the installation has been wiped off the map. Yesterday, videos emerged showing an absolutely gigantic fireball rising over the outskirts of Khmelnitsky. The destruction was clearly caused by a series of huge secondary explosions. Now we know for certain that it was indeed this site.
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2 hours ago, sburke said:
Even if it isn't and it is just some brigade level push to take advantage of Russian exhaustion, the effect it is having on the enemy is fascinating. If UA does start pushing in multiple locations and present the RA with several problems to solve, the impact on RA morale is going to increase a lot as well as likely causing even more backstabbing within Russian leadership.
The endless speculations and inescapable, pulse-rate-rising “Are we there yet?!” flood at every report from the front permits the REAL plan to be revealed here,for the first time. The UA will keep ratcheting up the suspense with local actions across the board, announcements by the Allies of more NATO weapons delivered, more hints from the government…”it’s coming…”, UNTIL:
The old guys in Russian HQs and Moscow simply cannot take it any longer. Heart attacks now down leader after leader. Generals collapse. Putin allegedly seen on a stretcher with an oxygen mask. The country panics. Leadership everywhere is collapsing in fear, jumping out of windows, dropping cigarettes. The State Duma and the Federation Council lack quorums, and the ones who do show up are screaming at each other on Russian tv. And then…
The Russian troops at the front realize something wonderful, and say “Frack it. This sucks. let’s just go home.”
Zelensky starts hinting at delivering aid to the stricken Motherland…friendly annexation of interested Russian Republics - ancient beloved Kyiv as new Capitol of the Russian Federation. Kazakhstan, Armenia and Belorussia say, “Hmmm…let’s talk”. The CSTO countries announce a meeting, to be held in Kyiv if Zelensky would be willing to host. Biden announces USA sanctions could be phased out “If conditions are met”.
The UA units remain alert, in position, but for the first time in years no deaths are reported along the front lines. Counter Offensive ends.
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59 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:
See that's part of why I'm not convinced this was Putin's doing. There is no reason he would be afraid of killing some of his own people in order to get the rest riled up against Ukraine. But this attack seemed specifically designed to not kill anyone.
Yeah, I can see that. But in this time of Russian near Apocalypse (certainly for Putin!), I think it’s also possible that the deeply embedded symbolism might count more than more lives lost. Nationally, Putin must now dig deeper into the contemporary Russian psyche than pointing at some localized people’s deaths. I’m recalling Stalin dropping the appeals and propaganda about Communism when Barbarossa was rolling towards Moscow and Leningrad, etc. He turned to the patriotism about pre Bolshevik Mother Russia, all the old Motherland symbolism. But most of all, I’m not convinced or strongly arguing for any of the theories. Today I lean towards false flag because of the perfect staging and Cui Bono. But we really just don’t know.
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https://www.ft.com/content/bf892731-2f1c-4c52-b90b-b44ca1911263 A Russian spy network has acquired sensitive technology from EU companies to fuel Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine even after a US-led crackdown on the covert smuggling ring. The network — set up to procure goods ranging from microchips to ammunition — has managed to obtain machine tools from Germany and Finland despite US sanctions imposed in March 2022, a Financial Times investigation has found.
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4 hours ago, billbindc said:
As with Nordstream, we'll know soon enough.
We don’t know who did it, and likely won’t for quite a long time, if ever. (See links below) What we can better understand is “Cui Bono”…Who Benefits? But the symbolism is clear: the essence of Russia herself is under attack by the untermensch.
**Ukraine? Doubtful. Obvious reasons include enraging the Russian public (see futility of WWII The Blitz, bombing N. Vietnam, etc). Escalating European fears of a widening war etc. Embarrassing the USA after repeated messages not to stage deep attacks into Russia and Moscow. And little benefit. Does the Ukrainian public really need to be further pumped up against Russia?
**Russian Partisan groups? “If you strike the king, you must kill him”. **Putin? Good reasons have already been outlined here and widely by analysts elsewhere, not only at ISW. Not least is the likelihood that he has done this before. Some may not know about or have forgotten Putin’s infamous rise to power during the Chechnya’s War. To achieve his lofty goal, Putin likely staged multiple false flag slaughters of his own people.https://news.yahoo.com/bloody-czar-did-false-flag-175812204.html
https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-russia-president-1999-chechnya-apartment-bombings/30097551.html
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37 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
I think we broke JonS.
A moment of silence to honor his memory.
This is a sad reminder of the fragility of life. -
1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
The attack was small and simple enough that literally anybody could have done it, which means all options are inherently open for consideration. The question of who gains from this also produces a wide open answer. Pretty much anybody who has a beef with Putin, including pro-war Russian factions, is a suspect.
Indeed. And the “who benefits” question is always a fine one. At this point, we really have no solid irrefutable evidence, so exploring various scenarios - brainstorming - is all we got. A few thoughts:
1. Putin rose to power on the back of his vicious assault on a terrorist/hostage situation in Moscow. It’s widely viewed as his shrewd, brutally effective false flag operation. In comparison, this pinprick is low risk/high return for whipping up a blood lust war frenzy in the heavily government-controlled Russian media environment.
2. I speculated earlier that the recently leaked alleged Talking Points Manual for dealing with the Ukrainian offensive might be laying the groundwork for a Putin/Russia off-ramp, in case of significant losses. The coincidence of the drone attack not long after that Official Talking Points Manual is interesting. Regardless, we could dismiss that longshot speculation and instead consider its opposite. Regardless of who launched the drone attack or why, Putin now has at least significant and contemporary internal support for battlefield use of tactical nukes within Ukraine. If threatened with a looming significant defeat. And the option of claiming legitimacy by way of military use, not the “cowardly” assassination of the political leader.
3. In effect, recent days have strengthened Putin’s options for how to react to significant defeats in Ukraine. In the case of battlefield defeat, seeking a way out of conflict and into peace talks. Of course organized by China. Or for apocalyptic culmination of the war, if bizarrely he cannot see or accept any other way forward. This seems so unlikely and “unacceptable”. But so did the invasion itself.
These are extremes. End-of-the-spectrum possibilities. I don’t think either is highly probable. More likely as many have speculated is a grinding onward in back and forth efforts over the next year or two. Or longer. The often suggested collapse of Russia is another outcome, but I am not sure how likely that is. We do know there is a strong current here in the forum and among the Western Allies to prevent it because of the fear of unleashed chaos and thousands of loose nukes. This summer is sure looking like one to remember.
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44 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Russians already in hysteria. I will not post screens, but Volodin wrote "we will demand to use such powerful weapon, which will destroy fascist Kievan regime" (he meant nukes), Medvedev said "now we can and must hit important administrtative buildings in Kyiv and eliminate high political and military leaders of Ukraine". In Russian publics is apocaliptic messages are sharing that on strategic aviation airfields already gathering armada of bombers and mass retaliation strike will be conducted at this night. And allegedly two "special ordnances" delivered to Engels airfield.
“Snowflakes”
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10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Looks like Russia is starting to regain it's propaganda footing by POSSIBLY making up a strike on Ukrainian Major General Tantsyura (new commander of all TD forces).
Interesting to consider this Russian publicized alleged assassination attempt, factual or not, quickly followed by the drone explosions over one of Putin’s residences. In the very heart of the heavily fortified complex. Rapid reaction by Ukraine, or just coincidence?
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36 minutes ago, TheVulture said:
There are other possibilities than a) false flag or b) drone flown from Ukraine.
Such as pro-Ukrainian Russians in Moscow, or simply anti-Putin ones.
Also of interest is the perfectly located site for the video recording and the timing in the middle of the night of the drones’ approach and their cinematic detonation just above (not on) the building. Should be easy to extrapolate the location of the phone or camera. It’s across the river from the complex
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3 hours ago, The_Capt said:
As to peace talks. I do not think we are there yet. Cutting the land bridge, pushing the RA back into Crimea and compressing Donbas puts Ukraine in a very strong end-game position
Yes, clearly. Agreed. But the peace talks speculation is that the leak of the supposed Putin Propaganda Directives Manual sets the stage for the aftermath of serious setbacks …such as loss of Crimea. And as you say, puts Ukraine in an unquestionably strong position. The “manual” then provides the excuse - NATO, the USA did it. But we fought valiantly and have survived. That may in turn set the stage for peace talks to follow such a significant loss. If the leaked material is not fake, we may be seeing the groundwork for signaling that Putin might accept an off-ramp. But only if it is “earned”. So much rides on the upcoming offensive{s}. And perhaps on a viable, permitted evacuation from Crimea.
Just speculating, but Putin and some of the cooler heads that remain could be weighing their options more rationally as the offensive looms. The outcomes we all have dissected for a couple thousand pages are doubtless well-known to them, especially after the Xi and Defense minister meeting. With no fabulously great outcome of an even longer war realistic, avenues for survival must be coming into consideration along with grim and grimmer war planning in a country that may be one battlefield defeat away from cracking.
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4 hours ago, sburke said:
if the Ukrainian military manages to take back territories and claim battlefield victories “with the help of weapons from the U.S. and Europe,” Russia’s losses will be understandable—after all, they were up against the “entire West.”
In that case, the sources said, the Russian military will also be seen as having “pulled through.”
8 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:Two men trying to remind folks why Ukraine retaking Crimea is not optional but necessary.
Something tells me Ben Hodges and Jan Lipavský would get along just fine
Putting together the alleged new Putin propaganda advice manual quoted here that details what to say if Ukraine’s offensive is (or isn’t) successful, with the increasing weight of expert analysis - Ben Hodges, @The_Capt - that Crimea is the necessary key to defeating Russia, we can be excused for thinking that in the event, Putin will not order the use of tactical nukes. If the manual is not fake news, it certainly sounds as if the Russian public and perhaps the Western Allies as well are being prepped for a potential Russian off ramp, soft landing. Liberating Crimea is a big stretch - if it is fought to a long and bitter conclusion. But a premature loss blamed loudly in public on NATO and the US (and of course ultimately the British Overlords!), followed by an evacuation in the interest of saving lives blah blah blah…that puts the ball in Ukraine’s and the West’s court. Time for a cease fire and peace talks? Starting figuring out the political fate of the occupied Donbas??
Long shot speculation: Might China have suggested something like this in their recent talks with both parties?
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7 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:
Even if Ukraine captures all of its territories back next month, Russia can keep the war up as a cross-border war between two states likely for years. Russia doesn't have to negotiate and is very unlikely to as I see it. It is up to the loser to decide when a war ends.
I think you are correct but with this caveat. IF/WHEN Ukraine were to recapture ALL its territories, the political context and strategies would change rather dramatically. At this point, the questions of NATO and EU membership become far more central than during the past year. As would the overall questions of what guarantees of Ukraine’s defense would the Western Allies be willing to make? In lieu of a genuine real peace, what is realistic and achievable in the case of two implacable nations staring at each other across their (mostly) international borders while periodically lobbing military strikes at each other? Your scenario, a territorially restored Ukraine is a clear Russian defeat - losing everything they had *before* this invasion. We talk a lot about Russian collapse, but that is only one possibility. In this sort of fragile “warm” stalemate, would NATO membership really be much too much risk of collapsing the Russian regime? Too much chaos? If so, does the West have enough feasible carrots to convince an enraged, propagandized and mobilized Russia to stand down? No one knows.
Otherwise, I’ve been wondering how much of Russia’s military remains within Russia, especially its ground forces? After seeing the wonderfully detailed posts here of the Russian Order of Battle within Ukraine, and thinking about the numbers of units needed for border security, what’s left? And finally, IF the Russians within Ukraine are severely defeated, reduced and mostly driven back into Russia, apart from the nuclear force what military capability remains on the ground?
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1 hour ago, Centurian52 said:
What exactly do they intend to feed those 1 billion people after they've cut off diplomatic relations with every country on Earth except for Iran, North Korea, and China?
With lies, of course!
1 hour ago, JonS said:Well, yeah? Some lawyers become lawmakers. Some lawyers become judges. Some sportspeople become coaches or sports administrators. Some workers become managers. Some doctors become specialists. Some doctors become hospital administrators. That's what people do - go where their experience and training lead them.
Getting waaaay off topic here. But there isn’t a Constitutional separation of hospital administrators and doctors! Admins don’t surrender their licenses to practice. The assertion was that the same people who make the laws here, do not enforce them. That’s the de jure. But de facto? It’s a bit more nuanced. In real life, the same people go back and forth, changing hats but carrying their baggage with them. The law makers and the adjudicators, administrating the law are often the same people. Just a year or two or so apart. Formally, they are supposed to check their baggage first. I think we all know that in practice it falls quite short of that. Which can and does get dicey. Fact of life and scandals. Maybe that’s ok, unavoidable. Fine. It’s just not quite so black and white.
Now back to our regularly scheduled war.
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10 hours ago, JonS said:
Yes, but they aren't acting as lawyers when in the role of lawmakers. They don't get to set the rules because they're lawyers. They get to set them because they're lawmakers. Edit: and the lawmakers-who-trained-as-lawyers don't get to ensure the rules are followed either, because of that pesky old separation of powers thing - the executive and legislative branches aren't supposed to mess with the independent judiciary, etc.
The more important point, though, is that if you jettison your principles as soon as things get a bit tough, then you don't really have any principles. The reason 'we' get to tell ourselves that we're better than 'them' is because we at least try to hold ourselves to the rules we set. If we ditch those rules - and principles - then we're really just them wearing a fake nose and glasses.
Not arguing about the separation of powers of course, or the ethics that we both embrace! Rather, a side bar observation about the similar circumstance of lawyers and lawmakers - the actual individuals - to the revolving door between industry and the federal Agencies and Departments. Lawyers are inextricably woven into both the creation of our laws and their enforcement & adjudication. In the USA, they are often the very same persons, lawyers in different phases of their careers. Not disputing your second paragraph because we agree! Only pointing out that the same individuals - and they are lawyers, not say, scientists - often occupy both roles and carry with them their individual biases both political and personal. Comments are made here about lawyers, often in rather disparaging ways. Yet they are inseparable from societies’ fabric.
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6 hours ago, JonS said:
Reminder: the lawyers don't set the rules. Their role is to ensure that the rules are followed.
Strictly true. But recall that a great number of lawmakers are indeed lawyers. In the recent 117th Congress, 175 had law degrees. State legislators are also often lawyers. A majority of all US Presidents have been lawyers; 26 iirc.
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46 minutes ago, Vic4 said:
Tucker Carlson is out at Fox News but welcome on Russian TV
Shocked…SHOCKED!
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A quick google suggests these for a start.
James Holland - has a bit more British and Canadian focus than some general works https://www.amazon.com/Normandy-44-D-Day-Battle-France/dp/1787631273
John Keegan’s, updated https://www.amazon.com/Six-Armies-Normandy-Liberation-Revised/dp/0140235426
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12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
This video surfaced today and I'm thinking it is related to the news that the US talked Ukraine out of attacking targets in Moscow. This is purportedly a video of a Ukrainian drone flying around in Red Square:
The flight might be part of a stunt that is being promoted by a Ukrainian businessman. Which is to land a Ukrainian drone into Red Square during the May 9th celebrations. Price is about $500,000:
https://www.insider.com/ukraine-war-russia-monobank-yatsenko-prize-land-drone-moscow-red-square
This stunt is brilliant. It achieves much of whatever it was the US disapproved of, but in a way that the US really can't object to.
Steve
More on drones reaching nearly to Moscow
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-explosive-drones-are-getting-very-close-to-moscow Several locations in Russia, including near Moscow - as well as Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula it has occupied since 2014 - were reportedly hit by Ukrainian drone attacks Sunday and Monday, according to the Russian Defense Ministry (MoD), local government officials and various media accounts.
A Ukrainian UJ-22 drone packed with explosives was found near Moscow, in what appears to be the closest discovery of a weaponized Ukrainian drone near Russia’s capital. However, there was a discrepancy in reporting about exactly where it landed.
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China backpedals - and puts itself into the awkward position of officially recognizing Ukraine’s sovereignty. https://www.reuters.com/world/some-eu-ministers-say-china-envoys-remarks-ukraine-sovereignty-unacceptable-2023-04-24/
LUXEMBOURG, April 24 (Reuters) - China respects the status of former Soviet member states as sovereign nations, its foreign ministry said on Monday, distancing itself from comments by its envoy to Paris that triggered an uproar among European capitals.
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11 hours ago, panzermartin said:
19 still better than 1.
North Korea agrees with your view.
Greece does not.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
This slipped past me while out of town. Is Putin thinking his last best hope might not be China? Apologies if I missed it here.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/22/2170685/-Putin-issues-laughable-new-MAGA-approved-sanction-list
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-sanctions-trump-enemies-list-1801793