NamEndedAllen
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Posts posted by NamEndedAllen
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Worse than I had early this year. Not even the SENATE can ensure even Israeli aid, let alone continuing Ukraine aid:
Senate Republicans this afternoon blocked a sweeping spending bill to fund the ongoing war effort in Ukraine and help Israel fight Hamas over objections that the legislation failed to do enough to clamp down on border security…
Hours before the bill’s demise, President Biden pleaded in a televised speech for Republicans to pass the $111 billion package, which included $50 billion for Ukraine and $14 billion for Israel. He said he would be willing to make “significant compromises” on border provisions if Republicans would support the funding for Ukraine. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/06/us/politics/senate-ukraine-aid-bill.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Republicans Block Aid to Ukraine, Jeopardizing Its Fight Against Russia -
21 hours ago, billbindc said:
The DC trial happens in March.
Yes, but at their Super Tuesday. In fact, see below. And IF that trial starts on time, it will not conclude before he has the nomination sewn up. Barring sudden shocks, voting may well be just a formality. In the unlikely event a verdict is reached before November, any conviction will be appealed Take odds on who his VP will be?
It’s now official: The day after former President Donald Trump’s federal election-interference trial begins in DC on March 4 — so after Super Tuesday — Republicans will have allocated nearly half of their delegates (47%) from the contests in the 2024 GOP presidential race.
A week later, by March 12, that percentage will grow to 54%. After the primaries on March 19, it will be 69%. And after Louisiana’s primary on March 23, 71% of all delegates in the Republican race will have been allocated. -
3 hours ago, billbindc said:
You are correct. Trump can certainly run from jail. But commuting or pardoning himself likely doesn't get past the Supreme Court so it would be an unprecedented mess. Just like last time.
Point of personal privilege
and friendly amendment. In the event of a Trump second term, the federal criminal and state civil and criminal prosecutions will indeed be a sordid mess. No matter the outcomes. However…
Because of the nature of the judicial system and the ability to appeal, any criminal conviction is unlikely to occur until well AFTER the election and inauguration , even in the unlikely event the federal cases were to go forward. But a Trump Justice Dept. 2.0 is quite likely to immediately drop all of its own Trump federal prosecutions on Inauguration Day 1/20/2024. The prosecutor for the Georgia state charges has recently suggested that her trial may well drag on into 2025. And the hopes of some that State prosecutions are out of federal jurisdiction are effectively vapor. The Justice Department's current policy disallows criminal prosecution of a sitting President due to the disruptions of the Commander In Chief to carry out his duties….national security etc. And rest assured the right wing Supreme Court will backstop such decisions. Nor will a Republican Senate and House impeach Trump.
https://www.justice.gov/olc/opinion/sitting-president’s-amenability-indictment-and-criminal-prosecution
Maybe Nikki Haley will surpass Trump? More likely Trump would select her as VP. Because of the Republican primary schedule and its “Super Tuesday”, Trump will have the nomination locked up before the first trial might even start. Never dismiss outright a bizarre turn of events. But those who hope trials in and of themselves will derail a Trump election will likely be disappointed. -
Trying to up their dismal ISR game? (Thus sneaking in my nod to Elvis with “game”, as reference to Eagles winning the Super Bowl rematch at KC last night)
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/soviet-era-m-55-spy-plane-may-be-headed-to-war-in-ukraine
In one of its regular intelligence updates, the U.K. Ministry of Defense assesses that Russia is “likely considering bringing the Soviet-era M-55 Mystic-B high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft back into service.” In fact, the M-55 never made it into operational military service with the Soviet Union or Russia, with only four examples being flown. The last of these to remain active was more recently used for civilian research of the stratosphere and the Earth’s surface, under the name Geofizika.
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2 hours ago, dan/california said:
Yeah this is all completely unconvincing.
Except…except…politics doesn’t care! Especially in the USA. And especially so among the anti Ukraine, Pro Putin crowd.
Note: look how adamantly the Republican House is already about severing Ukraine from emergency military funding requests, as well as short term funding to keep the government functioning - while including Israel. Instead of both. -
Political dynamite…elections. And all that jazz:
“A senior Ukrainian military officer with deep ties to the country’s intelligence services played a central role in the bombing of the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline last year, according to officials in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe, as well as other people knowledgeable about the details of the covert operation. The officer’s role provides the most direct evidence to date tying Ukraine’s military and security leadership to a controversial act of sabotage that has spawned multiple criminal investigations and that U.S. and Western officials have called a dangerous attack on Europe’s energy infrastructure.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/11/nordstream-bombing-ukraine-chervinsky/
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42 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
The part of me that loves UGVs is thrilled by this. The rest of me not so much
My inborn self-defense sensor suite added a new threat warning indicator:
Autonomous armed drone swarms (of many types) equipped with facial recognition. Triggered by the ongoing reporting on China hacking and stealing extensive identity information on millions of Americans, including military personnel as well as via civilian databases. Well reported for years, and disturbing. Hello, TikTok:
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/china-spent-years-collecting-americans-personal-information-u-s-just-n1134411https://www.ibtimes.com/china-has-stolen-personal-data-80-american-adults-report-3134525
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/21/china-stolen-us-data-exposed-cia-operatives-spy-networks/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_of_Personnel_Management_data_breach
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I don’t know which version you have, but If there isn’t a docs or documents folder in your install directory you can download this version of it:
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3 hours ago, The_Capt said:
We got Finland and Sweden. We got political Will for a decade. We will get the rest of Ukraine. Russia got a corridor of land which will secure Crimea better but it cost them far more than that was worth.
That corridor is an arbitrary metric. Right next to “all of Crimea” and “every inch of pre-2014”. They have sentimental value but in the hard calculations of geopolitics and military gains they do not mean as much as people think. The West is not going to fall because this war got stuck where it is.
As usual, The_Capt is spot on for most of this post. He has been right about the war so often. He argued early on that ending the conflict in a state of less than complete victory (for Ukraine) is likely the best reasonable outcome - certainly much to my own chagrin. A fully defeated Russia, a collapsing massive nuclear power would be no win for the world. He and others have outlined the many clear and undeniably critical dangers of that outcome.. And of course a defeated Ukraine would be a disaster that echoes into the future of for democracies and their alliances.
Ugly as it may be, a stalemate may be the least treacherous outcome - for the West. Except, except…where that quoted “we” gets mixed up with Ukraine. So often “we” look at this from our own inevitably non-Ukrainian perspective. We make conclusions, predictions and assertions accordingly. Perfectly reasonable. For us. But so oftenAs usual, UKRAINE’s opinion, its people, its politics, its ethos, are left aside. Either inadvertently from our own biases or less often, cynically; which is much the same. Sure, “we” can say Ukraine survived, and so therefore…Russia lost. And and and look at how we supported Ukraine! And that Russia’s economy and standing are so reduced. But what will Ukraine say? What emotions will be released when the government says, “we must accept a stalemate and try to negotiate…something with the most untrustworthy and monstrous nation on earth”? Again. Will the government fall? Honestly “we” don’t really know - that lies in a future yet to be determined.
Personally, I’m delighted that this terrible expansionist autocratic, *criminal* force has been degraded so strongly, exposed so glaringly. In this regard as The_Capt outlined, “we” won. Russia “lost”. He pointed out that besides Sweden and Finland, “we got the rest of Ukraine”. I guess that’s right. Ukraine might even like that it got “got” by the West. Although I suspect less so, if it isn’t quickly admitted into the EU and NATO.
But “we” must not forget or minimize that the price for “Russia has already lost” has been paid most heavily by Ukraine. And that bill has not yet been fully paid. Many of its towns and cities are ruins. A great deal of its people are severely injured physically or emotionally, or both. The fickle Will of the West may well not shower reconstruction money on Ukraine. And Russia certainly won’t! Without the deeply rooted emotional strength that stems from real victory, I suspect how costly Ukraine’s bill will really be is hugely, galactically unknown. “Our” nations must not act like it’s over. A stalemate within a sovereign democratic nation’s borders will only be the next chapter in Russia’s War. Hope for the best. Plan for the worst.
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“The Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff said on Telegram that its forces “successfully hit a strategic target of the air defense system on the west coast of temporarily occupied Crimea on the night of 29-30 October."
The independent Russian media collective ASTRA and the Kremlin-connected Rybar Telegram channel offered more details, saying the system hit was near Olenevka on Cape Tarkhankut.
Rybar said the attack was carried out by Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) munitions, which would mark the first known use of that ballistic missile in Crimea. ASTRA said the attack injured several Russian troops.
The Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) did not comment on that attack. The War Zone could not independently verify any of the claims. However, the strike on the air defense system appears to be part of what the Russian MoD said was a wider Ukrainian attack across Crimea.”
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Meanwhile, the case is weaker than ever that USA military aid isn’t and won’t be in any danger because these Republicans or those Republicans support it, and other assertions that even if Trump or a similarly Putin-leaning candidate wins the Presidency this coming year, high levels of aid will continue. A new poll, and an analysis:
The White House and pro-Ukraine lawmakers are growing increasingly alarmed about the future of US funding for Kyiv in the wake of Kevin McCarthy’s ousting as speaker of the House of Representatives, which has left military aid in limbo. The risk of a lapse in American aid to Ukraine within a few months — a worst-case scenario for the Biden administration which has until now seemed unlikely — has risen in the past few days as chaos has enveloped the Republican party in Congress. It has also triggered soul-searching in Washington over the impact of US political dysfunction on the administration’s foreign policy goals, as it tries to forge global alliances to counter Russian aggression and rising threats from China. https://www.ft.com/content/49dea011-2824-4dd3-9341-5942bdec8211
New Reuters/IPSOS poll released Thursday: https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4240664-fewer-americans-support-arming-ukraine-poll/The poll, conducted Tuesday and Wednesday, showed only 41 percent of respondents said they agreed that the United States should provide weapons to Ukraine, down from 65 percent of respondents who said the same in a June 2023 survey.
That decline in support for sending weapons to Ukraine extends across parties. Democratic support dropped from 81 percent in June to 52 percent in October.Republican support dropped from 56 percent to 35 percent in the same period. Independent support dropped from 57 percent to 44 percent.
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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
That is what I suggested a few pages back. Seems a good time to remind us that all will be clearer soon, so might as well see how it plays out instead of speculating.
Steve
Sorry! I’ve been catching up chronologically in between trips to our vet’s office.
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4 hours ago, Jiggathebauce said:
This is definitely true in republican districts, but I hardly think this is the case in blue. With the exception of the Squad, the Dems primarily cater to a centrist constituency of wealthy 'Not In My Backyard" liberals, business and real estate interests. For Examples, see Kristen Synema, Eric Adams, Bloomberg etc. In senate races against Republicans, they run democratic candidates who can best be described as Bush senior/Reagan era conservatives to try to capture the vote of this unicorn 'reasonable moderate republican' who would be willing to back a conservative Dem over a Republican. With predictable results. The one exception where that has worked is Manchin.
Anyone who identifies with the left can tell you that we are NOT the democratic base. Lol. The DNC and liberals basically tell us to shut up and vote for them because we have no other choice.
Respectfully and understanding the sentiment, one must show the actual evidence that the non competitive districts you assert have been all centrist/“moderate” candidates, despite the steady drift to the left side of the Democratic voters’ identifications and the candidates’ themselves. No judgments here, just the data. The reality isn’t that the Dems are far left. It’s that their “ center” has steadily moved towards the Left and no longer has much overlap with the overall political Center, same as the Republicans. Some links:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrats-are-too-liberal-for-their-own-voters/ar-AA1hf7co
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-democrats-have-shifted-left-over-the-last-30-years/
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21 hours ago, MOS:96B2P said:
Once a week on Fox News one Democrat and one Republican come on Bret Baier's show and discuss bi-partisan legislation (or some issue) they are working on together.
This a perfectly reasonable assertion. The problem is the lack of numerical analysis attached to it and similar hopeful assertions and opinions about “lots of moderates” (not equal but applies with some differences in numbers/districts to the other side). In fact, very little ever comes of these tv exercises. Largely because so few members from the total Congress are involved. Whether we like it or not and despite our preferences, the bell curve or bulk of both parties’ self-identified voters have steadily moved towards their farther extreme ends. Not AT the ends but well removed from the moderate near center, whether right or left. As policy analysts (and Miles Davis) often say, So What?
Well, you can’t run for office as in the old days, appealing to the large moderate majorities of both parties and their overlap in the center. Back then, you could ONLY get elected that way. No John Bircher types could win from the extremes. Nowadays, you generally win with a majority of the isolated new centers of gravity that overlaps with the extreme end of your Party. And in some infamous instances, even the extremists can win. All exacerbated further by gerrymandering. Evidence? Look at the district maps for how many district seats are non-competitive. One study says SIX PERCENT. Of Congress! https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/02/17/just-6-us-house-seats-expected-be-competitive-thanks-rigged-maps Another study suggested a few more, just 35 seats are competitive.
The upshot? Hardly any House District candidates can or will appeal to the other party’s “moderate” voters if they want to be elected. They shape their appeals to their own bases. Those bases are firmly far from the overall center. Like it or not, wishful optimism aside, this shift and the related increase of extreme gerrymandering are the facts of the USA House of Representatives.
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2 hours ago, billbindc said:
Simply put, control of just over 1/2 of 1/3rd of the US government isn't really enough to stop what the rest of it wants. There will be some delays in votes and some bumps along the way buy what has happened in the House is ultimately a good thing for Ukraine. The Putin wing of the House GOP caucus just tried to shut down the government, overstepped politically and failed. This coming week, there will be a motion to vacate the Speaker's chair and Democrats very likely step in to save McCarthy as there aren't really the vote in the GOP caucus for anyone else would take the job if they won it.
The price of that action will be aid to Ukraine. Finis.
And we’ll go through the whole dance again next month. Each time dancing on the edge of the world. So far the balancing act has stayed steady. This time in violation of the absurd but relentless rule in the Republican Caucus in the House, “The (Dennis) Hastert Rule”. Votes by Democrats needed to pass that last minute bill. Odds favor another close call with some sort of last minute patch to prevent a blowout. But at the very least, governance continues to bog down. Does this worsen the faith in the nation’s ability to govern itself? In democracy? Will Russia and China take every opportunity to drive more wedges into that faith as the 2024 elections grow closer? Are the chances for a Republican Senate majority quite strong? Even if Democrats retain the White House? High probabilities, all. Ukraine has about a year to win its best possible outcome. After that, the future is wide open.
I’ve always been an optimistic realist. Or realistic optimist. But I swear, the sheer magnitude of the crap people keep pulling is trying my bedrock optimism.
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2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:
the House Republican leadership was willing to break from the MAGA Republicans in order to avert a shutdown
Actually , this was the MAGA last ditch demand. Cut aid for Ukraine, thus providing aid and comfort for Russia. It’s a terrible political stunt forcing those who support the fight for freedom and democracy to PUBLICLY abandon their support, on the record. In order not to be the subject of a huge wave of advertisements screaming that Democrats chose Ukraine over America.
However, cesmonkey is correct. And the Pentagon has already stated that it will protect ongoing *military* aid to Ukraine in the event of a shut down. So for the moment, this despicable stunt plays more to the right wing *extremist* minority of voters and to Putin favor. However, it is only good for 45 days. Which is practically an eye blink. Then we go through these self-inflicted undermining divisive comfort and aid to Russia circuses (and China - who sees Ukraine=Taiwan). Please note: I say comfort and aid to Russia because it is, whether or not the MAGA Congressional reps intend that or not. I suspect not all of them mean for that to happen. Or they just don’t care. Either way, just as we watch carefully for dissent and signs of exploitable cracks in Russia (and China ) - so definitely do they.
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What will the Senate do with this?
The House bill attracted strong bipartisan support and includes more domestic disaster relief aid but no money for Ukraine. It must pass the Senate before midnight to avert a shutdown.https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/09/30/us/government-shutdown-news
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6 hours ago, Kinophile said:
I think he copied @NamEndedAllen's style to appear "older". Sorry, NEA, not meaning to be rude to you. Always good posts, unlike this former Leading Intellect.
Hey! I earned my older!! Took a very long time!
But thanks. Really.
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5 hours ago, Ultradave said:
Resolved. There is money in the Senate continuing resolution for Ukraine aid (and US disaster relief as well). Now, the real question is whether the House will even consider it for a vote that way.
I don't think there is much doubt that the Senate will continue to support Ukraine. And really the House as well, EXCEPT in the House, there are ~20 who will not under any circumstance, at least as yet, and that 20 of 435 can hold up everything, since there is only a 4 seat majority. In the past, dissenters had "permission" to vote against, to satisfy their constituents, because when the votes were counted there were sufficient without the dissenters. This isn't the case now, and 20 are dictating terms to the entire 222 majority. And Speaker McCarthy is in a bad situation, of his own making. If he tries to pass the Senate bill, it may pass with Democratic help, since the Senate bill was bipartisan, but he'll be voted out of the speakership because he will supposedly have reneged on the agreement made with the 20 to get to be Speaker. If he tries to put forward his own resolution, and includes ALL the demands of the 20, it *might* pass, but will NEVER pass the Senate. It might not even pass the House, because there are plenty of Republicans who don't support the positions that the vocal 20 member minority hold. I'm using 20 because it's *about* that many and fluctuates day to day - we all know who the MOST vocal minority of the minority are and they seem to hold the power, a pretty amazing spectacle for first term Congresscritters to display.
Been watching all this with a feeling of both interest and horror. Not that it hasn't happened before, but in the past no one was holding the Speaker's job hostage at the same time.
The Pentagon has stated that in a shutdown, aid to Ukraine would continue as a priority measure not to be interrupted. So that's good anyway.
Dave
Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
Yours are excellent points on this sad, disgusting example of failure at governance. I don’t believe “resolved” is the best term though, since the House will not accept this Senate measure. It’s a problem to make assumptions about the outcome of the current fiscal crisis based on past episodes. In the past, the blockading Representatives were sane. And they understood getting to Yes. Yet the outcomes were NOT all puppies and rainbows. Painful compromises were made, but at costs ultimately to the complex interests of the public. This time? “Compromise” is a terrible “sin”. And the costs and unintended consequences of an agreement could well be worse than in the past. Especially with the 2024 elections looming. In an extended shutdown, it is possible that extreme pressure could shake the minority into accepting a short term band-aid, kicking the can down the road again. I just wouldn’t place bets on any specific results at this time.
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For those who doubt that a tiny minority of USA Congressional Representatives can disrupt aid to Ukraine, let alone shut down the government of the USA:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/25/us/politics/senate-shutdown-ukraine.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Money for Ukraine at Center of Senate Bid to Avert Shutdown -
2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:
Wait if Ukraine is also fighting Russia in Africa, did this just became a world war?
Well, we are definitely far from “World Peace”.
And not to forget millions of refugees having fled, in Europe and the Middle East.
And Cyber War in and out of the Shadows.The classic labels of war may have gotten a lot squishier since last we applied them. Squishier still, the divisions between one war and another and the next. Historical analogy in retrospect: some historians consider “WWII” as a continuation of “WWI” with a bit of a pause.
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4 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:
Azerbeidzjan attacks Ngorno-Karabach.
Air attacks, border-crossings.
Even Russia "concerned" about this escalation.
More news on the widening conflict(s) in Europe:
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5 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Every time we deploy the armoured fist somewhere, cheap and many lethal systems to counter it will have been there for weeks. And the technology behind those system is going to be an extremely high priority because they can deny what is the core of our current western military ground force …they watched the Gulf War and Iraq 03 on tv same way we did.
So add it all up. Tactical, Operational and Strategic - the whole thing does not look good for the entire heavy system. Lighter, faster, cheaper, deadlier and unmanned is a wave of change that no one is going to be able to stand in front of. In my opinion we are watching the re-definition of “combined arms” unfold in front of us daily in Ukraine. The re-design of what combat power means and warfare itself is going to be fundamentally changed.
So this means the dreams of a glorious MechWarrior future are deader than dead?
More like TerraNova?
Announcement of the Combat Mission Battle Pack "Summer of Destruction" and pre-order counter
in CM Red Thunder Maps and Mods
Posted
Yes Yes Yes! Please add me to the pre-order list. Amazing effort and work and progress.