NamEndedAllen
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Posts posted by NamEndedAllen
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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis criticized American aid to Ukraine as an "open-ended blank check" and questioned whether the United States should be engaged in the Russian conflict at all.
"I don't think it's in our interest to be getting into a proxy war with China, getting involved over things like the borderlands or over Crimea," DeSantis told Fox & Friends on Monday, referring to the Ukraine territories that Russia has seized through military force.
China? CHINA?
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5 hours ago, BFCElvis said:
This one is going to take a very long time to heal.
Yes it will. I’m glad my grandparents weren’t around to see both the Phillies and the Eagles lose right at the very threshold of championships. It would break their fierce hearts.
I will make a start myself by buying this year’s upcoming, quarterly Steam releases. So please please please let the healing begin! Release them soon! -
29 minutes ago, Huba said:
Vladimir Vladimirovich is speaking live. At the moment nothing special, words "Nazi" and "West" are being repeated quite often.
Quotes from OSINTdefender’s coverage:
Putin: Anglican church plans to consider idea of gender-neutral god, but God forgive them, they don't know what they are doing
Putin, “In the West, Pedophilia is seen as a new norm and Priests are Forced to Officiate Same-Sex Marriages.”
“Sevastopol and Crimea was their next Target.
Putin states, “It is “Them” that unleashed this War not Russia
Putin, “We have attempted every Opportunity for Peace.”
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Shelling along many areas of the front, but may be routine. But I’m not sure if shelling from Belarus is routine. Tantrums after President Biden’s surprise (cream pie in Putin’s face) visit to Kyiv?
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Is this reported anywhere else? It seems beyond credulity that Russia would try to start a war against NATO. Especially after relentlessly striving to destroy its own military for the past year.
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On 1/29/2023 at 8:01 AM, civdiv said:
I am reading this via my Kindle Unlimited subscription. Interesting book and good read; I’d be interested in other’s opinions. Especially interesting is the authors discussion of some rare re-use of captured French vehicles by the 21st Panzer Division. Things like the Somua MCG half-track repurposed as a mobile anti tank gun or rocket launcher, or the P-107 conversion for the 20mm anti aircraft gun. Some of you purists will want this equipment in Combat Mission, or maybe it is already there. The MCG anti tank gun varient looks so much like a German half-track maybe I have already seen it in my readings but did not recognize it as a former French vehicle.
Thanks! Added to the Wish List.
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23 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
Hey CivDiv, just finished this one. Excellent book, thx for the tip.
Also just finished this one, audiobook (free in Audible catalog): https://www.amazon.com/Those-Who-Hold-Bastogne-Civilians/dp/B00RA3PT24/ref=sr_1_2?crid=1E5LNGV196FTA&keywords=bastogne&qid=1676936897&sprefix=bastogne%2Caps%2C163&sr=8-2
I thought I knew all I needed to know about ardennes campaign, I was wrong. I was shocked at the intensity of the fighting around Bastogne after Patton's troops made contact w the kessel. The casualties were terrible on both sides as US tried to widen the supply route and perimeter while germans kept trying to take Bastogne / close the supply route.
Thanks for the lead - just bought the Kindle version.
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Also relieved to see evidence that Elvis has survived the terrible disruption in the Force, in Phoenix. I remain dressed in mourning black.
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1 hour ago, danfrodo said:
Does anyone else have any reports of a major RU attacks yesterday N & S of bakhmut?
Also, any news of RU troops massing elsewhere on the line?
From ISW on the 19th (from its concise summary)
- A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces crossed the Russian border into Kharkiv Oblast and occupied unspecified border settlements.[31]
- Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Svatove and near Kreminna.[32] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces are strengthening frontline positions west and northwest of Kreminna.[33]
- Russian forces likely secured marginal gains in the northern suburbs of Bakhmut and in the eastern outskirts of the city.[34] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that degraded Wagner Group formations are narrowing the scope of their offensives in the Bakhmut area due to a lack of forces.[35]
- Russian forces reportedly continued offensive operations along the western outskirts of Donetsk city and around Vuhledar
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20 minutes ago, Artkin said:
Yeah, very ugly. The whole "American politics is ONLY right and left" is the sort of thing that is ripping this country apart. FFS I hate seeing these types of posts more than anything around here.
Yes, hyper extremism in USA politics sadly is tearing us apart. But it is real, and can’t be ignored as a factor in elections. Exhibit A:
“just don't agree with the way this is all gone, throwing billions upon billions so one corrupt former Soviet republic can fight another corrupt former Soviet republic. Or so that Zelesnky and his wife can go and do a photo shoot with Vogue Magazine.
It's a pretty ****ing sad state of affairs when our elected leaders are overly eager to send our taxpayer dollars overseas to fund yet another foreign war, but they can't be bothered with pressing issues at home (see also: East Palestine, Ohio).” From LukeFF, here
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31 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
I am willing to extend some benefit of the doubt that Hersh's single anonymous source was at least superficially credible, not some Twitter nutjob. However, I am also willing to bet that whomever his source is has ties to the Kremlin in some form.
Which is how Hersh lost his mojo. Ginning up *single* source unverified stories, into “huge” exposes. Trust is the coin of the realm in journalism. Hersh spent his last one years ago.
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12 hours ago, Sir Lancelot said:
There is an ancient Chinese proverb — “Cold the teeth shalt be when the lips demise.” It means that when an ally is all that stands between you and a powerful foe, its demise will bring the flames of war to your lands and spell your own doom. This proverb is known to every Chinese because it was the reason that Mao famously gave for sending troops to fight in Korea. Xi and his cadre grew up with this proverb reverberating at their ears, and I’m certain that this is the chief reason on their mind for choosing to back Putin at this dire moment.
And here is an ugly scenario that must have occurred to some in Beijing. Trump again sweeps through the USA Republican primaries, because his enormous base is most concentrated in them. He runs on “Peace & Prosperity” and targets China and its trade policies as the real threat to the American Way of Life. His first act in office is as expected, dropping sanctions on Russia. He invites Putin to the WH. At their Press Conference, Trump carries out his threat to leave NATO and those “war mongering” European nations that keep dragging America into foreign wars. A week later, Trump and Putin announce a new military and economic partnership, hailed by the Right Wing USA Congress. Rather than having the USA facing hostile powers on both the Pacific and the Atlantic, China sees itself sandwiched between the two big nuclear powers, who are also two of the three largest oil exporters on Earth.
Couldn’t happen. But still, best to keep the USA just a bit off balance by not abandoning its long time Red ally, in its great time of need.
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4 hours ago, billbindc said:
The most compelling explanation I have seen is the above. Russia had numerous motivations, both strategic and contractual, to explode the pipelines and it looks pretty clear that an accident forced their hand. In addition, the ships Hersh claimed did it where nowhere near the location and in one case was not even in service yet. His role as a conduit for Russian misinformation continues.
There was a Seymour Hersh decades ago who had some credibility as a journalist. Then he went so far off the rails of factual, evidence based, credible reporting he couldn’t get back. I thought he’d been dead for years. This must be some sort of last gasp by him to regain a sliver of recognition. This ties a bow on his shame.
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This could be getting interesting. And more complicated. And political as election season in the USA heats up.
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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Ukraine's strategy is to build a force of superior quality that relies upon ISR and PGMs to shape the battlefield deep in the rear.
Bring on the ATACMS!
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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/us-officials-believe-china-may-providing-russia-non-lethal-military-as-rcna71336
Feb. 18, 2023, 11:02 AM PSTThe US believes China may be providing non-lethal military assistance to Russia for use in Ukraine, according to four US officials familiar with the matter, and the administration is concerned they are considering sending lethal aid.
While China has provided some help to Russia, including parroting Russian disinformation campaigns about the war and promoting Russian false pretexts about the war, this is more tangible assistance for use by Russian troops in Ukraine, according to sources familiar with the matter.
The officials declined to provide specifics about the non-lethal military assistance, but said it could include gear for the spring offensive like uniforms or even body armor. -
2 hours ago, alison said:
A frustrating thing about trying to understand China's situation is that certain statistics are either not public at all, or if they are public they're not trustworthy. One statistic is how many Taiwanese people actually live and work in China. Estimates put it at around a million on the low end, but it could be more. There is a sense that a not insignificant part of China's development since 1990 was driven by Taiwanese entrepreneurs (臺商 or taishang) who leveraged their special status as technically-not-foreigners to bring their business acumen and technical knowledge to the mainland. A good example of how this bound the economies of the two countries together is Foxconn - known in the US as the "Chinese" company that makes iPhones, but actually it's a Taiwanese company with massive factories in China. There is a whole stereotype in China of the evil/corrupt/greedy Taiwanese factory owner, lording it over the local proletariat. (Of course across the strait there is another stereotype - the evil/corrupt/greedy Chinese landlord, to which working class Taiwanese have to pay their hard-earned wages.)
The point is, China and Taiwan are bound together very deeply in business. Because of the special status of Taiwanese in China (not to mention the shared language), it is an appealing destination for young people who want to get rich - perhaps at the expense of their political ideology. This doesn't just extend to white collar workers, but entertainers too. There is a limit on how wealthy and successful you can become selling to an island of 20 million people. There's more people living in Shanghai alone than the entirety of Taiwan! So folks go there to earn money, and lots of that money comes back into Taiwan, so even people who remain here and are against the idea of political unification understand that if the Chinese government wanted to turn the economic screws they could absolutely devastate the country, in a way that could cause some people to accept an eventual hostile takeover just to be able to regain a basic quality of life.
This is one reason why the pan-Green parties in Taiwan keep trying to do a south- or south-east Asia pivot. I am not sure how successful the strategy has been, but to be fair I don't really keep up with regional economics. The disappointing thing from my perspective was that the US under Obama had a plan to help reinforce the regional economy with TPP, but due to domestic concerns in the US subsequent leaders trashed that treaty and there appears to be little appetite to revive it.
I know we're on a wargaming forum and it's tempting to say America should just build bigger guns and/or send more of them to Taiwan to solve the problem, but the reality is that economics are really entwined with this conflict in a way that they haven't been in any other that I am deeply aware of. This isn't like the Cold War where the first and second worlds operated somewhat independently of one another. China is a frenemy not just to the US, but Taiwan, Japan, Philippines and many other countries in the region. I'm really curious to see how it all will unfold.
Really well-expressed, informative post. Thanks.
One thing to know about the trade between the two, regarding Shanghai:“According to a 2020 census, about 157,900 people from Taiwan resided in mainland China, a roughly 7% decrease over the preceding decade. The entire island of Taiwan was home to about 23.6 million people in 2020, slightly less than Shanghai’s population of roughly 25 million people at the time.
However, Taiwan’s economy is larger than Shanghai’s, at about $781.58 billion versus $680.31 billion last year, according to official figures.
In 2021, Shanghai’s share of mainland China’s GDP was 3.8%.”
AND ALSO:
“Taiwan’s business and economic ties with mainland China and Hong Kong have grown so large that the region is by far the island’s largest trading partner.
Many large Taiwanese companies in high-tech industries such the world’s biggest chipmaker — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC. — operate factories in mainland China.
Last year, mainland China and Hong Kong accounted for 42% of Taiwan’s exports, while the U.S. had a 15% share, according to official Taiwan data accessed through Wind Information.”
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2 hours ago, Lethaface said:
~50% of China's export goes to western aligned nations, if not more.
Essentially, almost all of it! So, yeah. China would have to look hard at the solidarity in trade sanctions against Russia. And the loss of its massive imports from Taiwan. Not saying this is decisive. But in any large power not named Russia, certainly a major brake on adventurism.
(more countries follow, but with smaller snd smaller amounts, into just millions, not billions.China Exports By Country Value Year United States $577.13B 2021 Hong Kong $349.44B 2021 Japan $165.82B 2021 South Korea $148.85B 2021 Vietnam $137.90B 2021 Germany $115.18B 2021 Netherlands $102.43B 2021 India $97.51B 2021 United Kingdom $87.03B 2021 Malaysia $78.70B 2021 Thailand $69.36B 2021 Russia $67.55B 2021 Mexico $67.44B 2021 Australia $66.38B 2021 Indonesia $60.65B 2021 Philippines $57.31B 2021 Singapore $55.22B 2021 Brazil $53.61B 2021 Canada $51.51B 2021 France $46.39B 2021 United Arab Emirates $43.82B 2021 Italy $43.63B 2021 Poland $36.58B 2021 Spain $36.13B 2021 Belgium $30.38B 2021 Saudi Arabia $30.32B 2021 Turkey $29.15B 2021 -
On 2/7/2023 at 10:35 AM, Lethaface said:
Interesting to read from your POV, thanks.
Edit to add: at the moment the Taiwanese (semi conductor) industry is very important for global economics. As long as that is true and would be hampered by Chinese efforts, there are significant geopolitical interests ensuring Taiwan can continue operating. If the economic situation changes, so will the geopolitical interests and the resolve on the side of Taiwan. At least imo from realpolitik POV.I was curious about the entire trade and economics scale in all this. The economic ties between China and the USA are well known. I know less about the amount of trade between Taiwan and China. And how important Taiwan’s exports are for China. As far as I could tell, imports from Taiwan are China’s second largest, behind the entire combined EU, and ahead of the USA. Please correct if wrong. Looked first at importance of China for Taiwan’s exports, and then the importance of Taiwan for China as an overall source for its own imports. The chart was surprising to me. A blockade would hurt China, let alone the destruction of much of Taiwan’s infrastructure. Apologies if this was already well covered..
“Last year, mainland China and Hong Kong accounted for 42% of Taiwan’s exports, while the U.S. had a 15% share, according to official Taiwan data accessed through Wind Information.
In all, Taiwan exported $188.91 billion in goods to mainland China and Hong Kong in 2021. More than half were electronic parts, followed by optical equipment, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance.As a source of Taiwan’s imports, mainland China and Hong Kong again ranked first with a 22% share. The U.S. only had a 10% share, ranking behind Japan, Europe and Southeast Asia.”China Imports by Country Last Previous European Union 34693700.00 24717800.00 USD THO Feb/20 Taiwan 19225530.44 17419298.71 USD THO Dec/22 United States 15911753.06 16476130.54 USD THO Dec/22 Japan 14715460.09 14153420.64 USD THO Dec/22 South Korea 14379358.00 15370164.00 USD THO Dec/22 Australia 11070900.79 11761709.91 USD THO Dec/22 Malaysia 10210735.40 10212144.54 USD THO Dec/22 Germany 9088666.45 9003880.69 USD THO Dec/22 Russia 8996554.28 10544850.94 USD THO Dec/22 Brazil 8216881.95 8541338.47 USD THO Dec/22 -
Here you go: the Venn Diagram intersection of of the endless Abrams debate and the becoming endless AI Uber Alles debate:
New images have emerged of a U.S. Army M1 Abrams tank sporting an experimental artificial intelligence (AI)-driven target recognition system designed to speed up how fast threats can be spotted and engaged
Next someone will find how this overlaps with the (private) Capitalism vs (state) Capitalism debate. And evolution. And “balloons”. But eventually, back to Ukraine:
From today’s ISW:
Key Takeaways
- US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin signaled on February 14 that the Ukraine Defense Contact Group’s 54 member states will continue to support Ukraine in the long run. The Washington Post reported that US officials have privately signaled to Ukraine that Western security aid to Ukraine is finite, however.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly recruiting convicts and mimicking the Wagner Group’s treatment of convicts as cannon fodder.
- Russian forces continued offensive actions in the Kupyansk direction and along the Svatove-Kreminna line on February 14.
- Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and along the western outskirts of Donetsk City on February 14.
- Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast or in Kherson, Mykolaiv, or western Zaporizhia oblasts on February 14.
- Russian ground forces on the Kola Peninsula in northwestern Russia have been reduced to one-fifth of their initial strength numbers before the invasion of Ukraine, supporting ISW’s longtime assessment that the Kremlin is not concerned about a NATO conventional military threat against Russia.
- A Ukrainian and Tatar partisan group reportedly conducted an improvised explosive device (IED) attack on a car carrying two Russian military personnel and two Russian special service representatives in Nova Kakhovka on February 10.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may meet on February 17.
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12 hours ago, mosuri said:
Mendeleev? Pavlov? Sakharov? Tolstoy? Tarkovsky? Tchaikovsky? Whether Russia has pulled its full weight or not is another thing but there's certainly a bit more than zero cultural achievement stemming from there.
That was then. This is now. Russia’s genocidal invasion has focused the world’s attention to the singular question, “What have you done for us today?” Oh! Death, destruction, hate, poison, mass suffering, and crimes against humanity. Well, then…
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7 hours ago, Lethaface said:
Anyway I think the problem is more in corporate culture (and blind profit maximization) and conflicts of interest, not necessarily 'capitalism'.
Exactly so. Always has been and always will be, because this, and the other extreme you mentioned, too much “social care” represent the dynamic in societies between the eternals of human greed vs human group solidarity/allegiance (goes by many names). Unsurprisingly, this is never settled. We as individuals each embrace a position along the spectrum from absolute dominance of the individual all the way to absolute control by society, the state. Each nation has a “set point” that gets tugged in one direction or the other as the after effects of new policies push beyond it. Until enough steam is built up to either correct the tilt, or force a new set point. Some nations achieve a better perceived balance for a time than others. But nothing lasts forever, because…hunan nature. Dividing up the resources is an endless negotiation - among nations, it’s “trade”. Unless it becomes war.
6 hours ago, Astrophel said:Polemic arguments should focus on mitigation of the undesired outcomes via regulation for example, rather than broadcast sweeping and false judgement about the system as a whole.
Yes. And amen. To both your sentences.
Of course the problem is, In theory that’s how economic systems should work. In practice, there will always be the eternal impulse to be utterly free of being controlled, “regulated”, no matter who or what is doing the regulating. Even when it is ourselves! -
1 minute ago, rocketman said:
No, that one is reserved for Kadyrov.
&*#$ it! Then how about, “Burned out lamp post light”?
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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:
A good speculation is that if China needs a payload the size of a school bus to do SIGINT then we have likely over estimated their technological abilities in this area.
Just as I suggested earlier. And why they need a cheaper platform that augments their satellite takes.
2 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:Or maybe their satellites aren’t as advanced as ours.
Combat Mission Cold War - British Army On the Rhine
in Combat Mission Cold War
Posted
Great to hear Ultradave! And a most excellent chance you will feel exactly the same way ten years on. At least from my own experience. Something else for those still upholding civilization as we know it: years ago several of my closest longtime colleagues/friends were thinking hard and planning for when to pull the “ripcord.” Inevitably we would talk about what we would be doing, after. I’ve not forgotten what one of them said. “A lot of guys say they are going to *start* doing all sorts of new and exciting things they’ve never made time for. But really, most people never do anything they haven’t already *been* doing.” I think there is a kernel of truth there, even though it isn’t 100% the case for everyone. The message is that guys who don’t have much else going on besides work, are often the ones at loose ends or worse after they retire. It’s a good idea to have cultivated some pursuits apart from work before you retire. You guys here already have that with CM and related stuff. Ultradave’s list though is a good example of a broader life outside of career that can make these later years flourish.