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Panserjeger

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  1. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Several videos of figting in Robotyne
    This video of several days ago - two UKR Bradleys fight in central and southern part of Robotyne: 
    Likely the same time or around - Bradley is coming for help to UKR squad, having wounded. M2 surrounding all around with smoke screen and shootong out the houses, where Russians can sit, also making smoke screen at houses, blocking LOS to Russians. At the end crew of Bradley likely spotted Russians, who tried to crawl out from the house - the gun of IFV leans down and shoots the ground near the bush and buildin. You sholdn't confuse themselves with "white tape" on the arm of one soldier - he is wounded and this is bandage
    The tank from the second video, which several times has been appering in the cadre, later (or recently? but it so far was immobile) was hit by Lancet. The quality is not good - Russian milblogger Rybar claims this is M-55S, and by his opinion  these tanks, which recently used 47th brigade were returned to their composition from Kreminna due to heavy losses of Leopards. Our OSINTers claim Russians hit own T-90M, but I think this is not it. Russian units hadn't T-90M on this diretion (at least in recent days) and this tank faced to the south.  
    Upd. But as far as on 7th of Aug 47th brigade issued a video that they hit Russian "T-72" in this place. DefMon now also recognized T-90M in this tank. I give up, interesting who could have T-90M... %) 
     
  2. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Time to go to IKEA to pick up some Swedish meatballs, and re-watch some Dolph Lundgren movies.
    You rock Sweden! 🇸🇪
  3. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The moment of yesterday Ka-52 shooting down and falling (lower video). It's confirmed now, it was shot down by Sweden RBS-70 MANPAD
    Russian helicopter fell down between Robotyne and Novoprokopivka villages, so some OSINTers assum UKR troops already can control most part of Robotyne 
     
  4. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russian counter-battery radar Zoopark-M1 was hit by HIMARS as claimed, but as for me it's more similar to Excaliburs. Target was tracked by UKR "Shark" drone, having very cool zoom. Location - Novopetrykivka village, Donetsk oblast. About 15 km SE from Urozhaine. 
     
  5. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Chibot Mk IX in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This will make more sense if we put the thinking of maneuver warfare aside and adopt to the Pacific war mindset. In pacific war the US and Japanese fight inch by inch on some uninhabitable islands, the objective is to put the other side’s main base and sea lane behind it into the bomber’s range. They fight on Guadalcanal to prevent the IJN’s torpedo bomber interdict the communication between Australia and Vanuatu. Fight on the New Guinea to isolate Rabaul. Fight on Saipan so that the B-29 can reach mainland Japan.
    Russian on the Southern front might have the same mindset. One inch step back means UKR’s artillery group is one inch closer to the main supply artery.  
     
  6. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    If somebody wants to search black cat in dark room, especially if realy no cat in this room, this is his right. For Eastern European countries, military aspect in their cultures always played important role in upbringing. I think, not a last role in "phenomenon" of fierce Ukrainian resistance played "military culture" memory with an attitude "I have an obligation to be defender of my land", different youth scout and paramilitary organisations, upbringing low-level leaders. Alas, contemporary western culture with it's negative aspects like "life for enjoying and consumption", globalization moods "Nations don't exist, I'm citizen of Universe", leftism, libertarianism etc significantly undermined nation readiness to fight. Now in Ukrainian society more and more we are hearing voices (and this is not only Russian PsyOps): "Why I have to go at the war! Only professionals must to go! I was born to enjoy a life, not to die on minefields! They havn't a right to force me to fight! This is violation of my human rights! If Russians come I will defend my family - we just relocate them to other country, but you closed borders for men, violating my basic human rights to choose a safe place for life!"
    When about week ago was published a photos of daughter of marine, fallen in 2020 - three years ago, where she was 10 y.o with a portray of his father and today's photo, where she is 13 y.o with sniper rifle as a cadete of military college, huge number of "snowflakes" and "human right defenders" started to faint "OMG! Little girl with a weapon! It's unacceptable!" Maybe this is a reason why in EU so low level of people, who ready to fight with a wepon for their countries. If education system try to upbrings kids as "snowflakes in rose unicorn kingdom", keeping them from "unwanted stresses, violence, militarism, hard situations" etc. then even usual mountain trip with a tent without a bed and toilet turned out for many of them in dangerous challenge, not speaking of to readiness to engage with a war reality. 
    So, I'm for "golden mean clever militarism" in youth upbringing. This is a question of nation health and future stability of countries.
    https://brilliantmaps.com/europe-fight-war/
      
  7. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Vet 0369 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Question: How can you tell an extroverted Engineer from an introverted Engineer?
     
     
    Answer: An extroverted Engineer stares at “your” shoes when talking to you!
  8. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Hapless in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Meanwhile, in Russia:
    That is a chunky, visible, photogenic mushroom cloud.
  9. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The matter of far-right or "pseudo far-right" (better to call them populists) support of Russia is not so ideology, but Russian money.  Russia generously fertilized both left and right politics, activating them, when it needs. 
    But Le Pen doesn't support Russia after 24th Feb, though she afraids, that victory of Ukraine can lead to WWIII. Prime minister of Italy, for example, is representative of right spectre, but her level support of Ukraine is increadable. Polish ruling party and goverment also of right spectre, but they support Ukraine.  
    Why some (far-) right political organizations has pro-Russian or false "appeasemnet" (for the cost of Ukraine of course) positions? Isolationism became popular. "We have many problems inside, but current government is wasting our taxpeyers money and military resourses for senseless support of corrupted Ukraine!" Or "do not provoke WWIII!!!" And little of ideology - as I can see in tweets of western Russia-supporters, they respect Russia for "tradicionalistic values", "Christianity", "fighting with LGBT", "fighting with Jewish-Masons world conspiracy" and they see Ukraine like a dangerous puppet in hands of leftists and globalists (OMG!!!!). Though indeed level of conservatism in Ukraine is comparable to Poland or Hungary. 
    My personnal big dissapointment is US Republicans, which always were hawks in relation to USSR and Russia (McСain for exanle) and now MAGA-isolationism and QAnon ate brain of half of them and their followers    
     
  10. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Civilian and cargo are not equal. Civilian is a passenger cruise liner, for example. Any "civil" cargo ship can potentially carry military or dual purpose cargo. Russian civil freighters for example, were involved in so-called "Syria express" along with military auxiliary vessels and landing ships, carring vehicles, ammunition and fuel.   
    Since 21st of July, according to decision of National Security Council     A N Y   cargo ship, heading to Russian ports or to ports on occupied Ukrainian territory can be considered as those, which carry military-related cargo with all risks for them. Also since 20th of July, due to the same decision, Ukraine prohibited any shipping in Kerch strait as potentially dangerous and this statement was shared to all ship-operators. 
    Also together with this decisions Zelenskiy made a statement that Ukraine will be more and more to transfer a war on Russian territory. Most of Russian population support the war or indiffrent and think this is "too far" from them.
    This is not a border conflict, not a conflict with civilized opponent, where both sides stick to different rules of war and conventions. This is the same existential war on annihilation as WWII. We can't win this war wearing a "white coat" in order not to make nervous different lefist organizations like HRW and some western governments representatives, expectng in horror nukes because of each UKR strike on Russian territory. Of course, we can't do retaliation carpet bombing like on Drezden in 21st century, but we will strike enemy economical infrastructure and significant objects like Moscow towers (by the way only two "broken windows" caused start of exodus from these towers some commercial tenants and appartment leesess - and this is also economical losses for towers owners)
    Video of strike on the tanker:
     
  11. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It is because of who we were…middle of the food chain.  Prey animals are driven by fear because it is necessary programming to survive.  We were right in the middle until we figured out how to 1) leverage energy, 2) communicate, and 3) lie to each other and ourselves.  Our big juicy brains allowed us to do this at an evolutionary escape velocity rate.
    Good/bad, altruistic/selfish have no real scientific meaning - an eagle swooping in to kill another animal is not being anything morally, it is simply surviving.  We built social frameworks that allowed us to create social metrics such as good and evil…which are basically metrics of relative behaviours.  We are in fact both and will leverage them based on context.  In frames of certainty and safety we will act altruistically and “good”.  Pump in enough uncertainty and fear and we will start to eat each other in a surprisingly short period of time - see Hurricane Katrina.
    People want to believe we are good because their sky-god or whatever made us that way but in reality “being good or evil” is an artificial set of conditions.  The role of government is to sustain frameworks of order and certainty so we stay within a “good” frame.
    War is a collision of two or more social frameworks that creates a completely new environment along with a new set of social metrics.  “Being good” is killing other people.  Being good is committing suicide to save others so they can kill other people.  Being evil is to not kill other people and run away, or kill the wrong people.  War is also a state of massive uncertainty so we often see devolution happen very quickly.  Of course that is what military machines are all about - sustaining violence through order in a massive environment of fear and uncertainty.
     
  12. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Gawd, who wants them?  Expensive and likely useless.  Last military to try old-school Soviet mass in the modern context was Iraq, and we all know how that worked out.
  13. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is both shaping and first phase of offensive simultainously. Now we concentrate a pressure on two main sectors - very narrow section between Robotyne and Verbove, the second - more wide section on V.Novosilka salient. And two auxiliary sections, directed to Vasylivka and Polohy. If the enemy has so strong minefields and fortifications we have to try to breach it in narrow places - meter by meter, instead to throw several brigades on mines and ATGM positions on large part of front. So, the same 47th and 65th brigades doing now "a shaping operation, but along with this its also breaching skirmish line and securing the corridor, which already is demining by our sappers. I think, when we will come to main line behind Robotyne - Verbove line (or even breach it), some reserve forces will be directed through this corridor to operative space.  
    BTW, even our experts recognize, both UKR and RUS armies Commands lost old Soviet capabilities to provide mass combined arms operations  
  14. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Of course, Slavic settelmnent names are like abrakadabra for western readers, especially if it has more that 15 letters ))), but yes each name of city, town and village can be roughly translated in English. 
    Urozhayne is adjective, so it better to translate not like "harvest", but "fruitful"  ) Though, of course geographical names aren't translated, even partilly like Velyka Novosilka can't be Large Novosilka ) - full rough translated name will be "Large Newcomerville" )
    Typical Ukrainian village or rarely setlement/town name has ending -(il/in/ian/iv)ka. Then this in noun. It consists from some significant part and the ending. This "-ka" usually means founding /belonging/first settlers name/name originated from some charakter - so, for example Ivanivka - "Ivan's village", "originated from Ivan", "belonged to Ivan" or Dubivka - "originated from oaks".  Nesterianka - "originated from Nestor"
    Some villages and towns rarely have only significant word, without ending.  For example Kopani  - old Ukrainian word "Kopan' ", means "the pit for keeping a water or the well without the frame", so it translated like "Waterpits", or Lyman - despite this word is equal to "liman, firth" for Donbas it has local means "the lake". Or Tokmak - name derived from name of the river Tokmak, which has turk origins means "poll/butt"
    Many villages have endings in the names "-le", "-ne", "-te", "-s'ke", "-ve", "-che" and then this is just adjectives. Verbove - from "verba" ("willow"). Sometime it has means of belongings like "-ka". If Ivanivka is "originated from Ivan", that "Ivanivs'ke" is "belonging to Ivan". Robotyne, btw, it more similar to the noun - it's from the word "work", so maybe "place of [field] work", but I think it likely was initially Russian name "Rabotino" more typical for Russian names, which was just translated on Ukrainian manner.   
  15. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I actually suspect it was for one of them: Russia.  Russia’s reasons for starting this war are opaque but we do know they did not need any of Ukraine’s resources, the line of conspiracies (bio labs, or whatever John Kettler was going on about may he rest in peace) has dried up and if it was to shore up the Putin regime this is one helluva way to go about that.
    I suspect this war had a large portion attributable to Russian need to push back on the West and western “encroachment”.  Along with basically declaring the global system of order no longer valid because if you are a revisionist state…you revise.  So for one party the root interest for this war does kinda seem to be centred on the West, Ukraine got caught in the middle in a lot of ways.  All war is communication and in many ways Ukraine was (and is) the medium, not the message itself.
  16. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    One would think that totalitarian empire keeping largest mechanized force on this planet in constant readiness for 45 years, with only one goal in mind- offensive (preferably over nuked battlefield), would be enough to convince some people Russians indeed were/are a threat to the West as well. This studio even made entire game about it.
    Just to give addendum to previous discussion about validity of muscovite danger. Since perhaps many viewers of this forum not reading Russian are not familiar with state of collective current Russian psyche, as expressed in myriads of their TV channels, internet discussons on media platforms as well as in private conversations, it is worth to reitorate how things stand now:
    1. Large swath of population seems to be convinced they already wage kinetic war with NATO, but limited in scope to Ukraine. Kinetic, not just proxy- NATO officers and special forces are everywhere in banderistan, according to them. This notion is far more widespread than just core nationalists; it is common among less literate strata of population, probably a minority but still large, maybe 20-40% overall (no hard and undisputable sociological data make assessment difficult). But surely many more than 50% are at least convinced this is purely defensive (= rightous or even holy) war ont heir behalf that West started, though. For quite many Russians hot "war with NATO", even if geographically limited*, wouldn't be totally new quality, but just formalization of current state of affairs. Many would probably even be relieved in that case- mental blocks nurished by propaganda of Great War for motherland, heroic soldiers, imagined social solidarity would finally fit in right place. It is minority of population, but growing.
    *Yes- basically CMBS setting.
    2. I don't even enumerate soft actions like spy attacks, use of nerve agents on foreign soil (let's count this as "Whoopsie..."), countless provocation by planes and ships, political meddling, etc. Many of them in other historical context, and with actors less patient than the Western states, could lead to war by themselves.
    3. They made artificial flood on largest river in Europe, stationed tanks in the centre of Chernobyl zone and are possibly not far from considering blowing another nuclear power plant.
    4. Western Europe in popular Russian imagination (especially older generations) starts on Elbe, not even Odra river. Just a reminder for our German friends. Reason? Beginning of this post. ^
    5. Again, perhaps many people are unfamiliar with Russian media (or understandably unwilling to dive in this sewer)- potentiall use of WMD was long ago inernalized and is opnely being discussed daily. To the point they have special programms in public TV (with folks who claim to personally dine with the Tsar) dedicated only to this issue of "preventive" nuclear attacks, with real specialists discussing potentiall fallout, how many nukes would be needed to blow off Amsterdam, Hague ("Hehe, you know why..."  as Skabaieva once giggled joyously with her guests) or London. Highest Russian officials, including twice the president of this country, routinely throw their nuclear phantasies publically. Public, sory for words, intellectual mastrubation with Cossacs drinking their horses in Paris 200 years ago or Soviet Army soldiers "teaching German women proper behaviour" in 1945 are part of very normal, mainstream discourse now.
    Now of course this is internal game and a pose to bargain something, one could say; they surely really don't mean it, right? Perhaps. But sole fact that nuclear devastation became a casual topic they are very proud upon, touched even during morning breakfast with kids or being shared by Russian teenagers with girlfriends in chats, should make us much more worried of Russia than we did for last 30 years. I am pretty sure many professional people dealing with MAD in Washington and other places are scratching their heads how to proprely assess what is real in this nev environment, and how to differentiate between real and token danger. Muscovia AD 2023 is much less predicatble even than late Soviet Union in this respect. Especially after we saw how its internal system of power is vulerable in last months.
    So yeah- even if you live in charming Provence countryside, well-connected commercial megalopolis like Amsterdam/London/Berlin or some Greek island- it doesn't matter, Russian madness and never satisfacted urge to being proper Empire can reach you in various ways.  Don't fool yourself folks; there are many more ways to do this than just conventional military power.
     
    Sorry for long post. As a bonus, clip of Kornets bouncing off of Leopards 2A6 :
     
  17. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Reportedly new Storm Shadow strikes took place this morning:
    Berdiansk spit - the hotel "Dune" was hit. In local TG chats writes about helicoipter activity and many ambulance cars, driving to Berdiansk
     
    Second strike was on grain elevator in Novooleksiivka, near Henichesk, Kherson oblast. Reportedly huge detotation and fire. Collaborators administration called locals to evacuate from the town.
    Russian TGs confirmed the strike on ammo dump
    On the photo - the fire in Novooleksiivka

  18. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russian S-400 launcher, 92N6E radar and KAMAZ supply truck were destroyed with HIMARS strike. It's claimed exactly this launcher hit pizzeria in Kramatorsk. Russian sources tell about 3 KIA.


     

  19. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Sarjen in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    regarding DPICM: we should put our ethical principles behind the needs of Ukraine, which follows a higher legal and moral imperative (defense against a war of aggression contrary to international law). One can remain of different opinion but ethics are nice to have when you are not bound to be eradicated by Russia. 
  20. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    1.  I have seen no unbiased studies that support the claim that cluster munitions kill more children.  A whole lot of heat and light has been put on these incidents but I would like to see some actual statistics.  Cancer kills across demographics and age groups but does lean into the older demographics.  Traffic accidents and many other public health issues do not, like drug overdoses.  The reality as a public health issue the 185k dud DPICM from the US supply is a limited risk when compared to other risks.  The economic risk would appear the higher issue.
    2. The munitions will be used on non-contaminated areas no doubt, but again we are talking fairly limited (see 1 munition in 5 football fields).  The risk to life and limb is less than the fact that those fields need to be cleared.  However, as we saw in France and Belgium, farmers will likely use the fields anyway and accept the risk in order to make their livelihoods.
    3.  Considering that Ukraine is also using AT mines and they require recording by LOAC, they will also likely be required to record DPICM usage…even in “the heat of battle”.  Also considering that a lot of artillery systems are computerized and linked into GPS this is something that will more likely happen automatically.  
    4.  Considering that upwards of 25% of agricultural land may be contaminated by Russian actions, along with loss of other industries. I think the Ukrainian leadership determined the cost escalation was simply far too low when compared to the risk to military operations.  Of course if contributing nations wish to only fund clearances of Russian DPICM and leave Ukraine to foot the bill for US supplied munitions they can sit on that righteous hill after the war.  Of course perversely any children killed by US  supplied DPICM will also be a “good thing” as it will sure teach those Ukrainians and US a lesson on how evil cluster munitions really are.  We will all feel bad for the children killed by Russian cluster munitions however…because morality is relative after all.
  21. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Today we have 500 days of full-scale war and a birthday - 50 years of Valeriy Zaluzhnyi

  22. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to strac_sap in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The idea of dropping munitions from planes to clear minefields was always a nonstarter in the past, for a number of reasons. As a new combat engineer private in the US army I remember watching a video (VHS I think) of Iraqi positions before deploying and the DoD wanted recommendations on how to breach them. Afterward I told the lieutenant we should just do a B-52 strike to clear a path. He didn't respond. The airstrikes were always too inaccurate and the ground could be impassible to vehicles.
    There are two different ideas here that should be clarified: breaching a minefield and clearing a minefield. Frankly both are scary.
    The explosives in mines is very stable, and the fuse is the key to setting it off. (when fatigued and stupid we would toss explosives around in really unsafe ways, but here I still am) So to actually clear a mine explosive needs to be placed directly on/next to it or it needs to be physically removed. Both of these require the mine to have been discovered by the persons doing the clearing. And then you have to be in the minefield doing stuff like, pop and drops, ring mains and line mains.
    To breach the minefield the mines simply need to be moved out of the way. This is where MICLICs and bangalore torpedoes come in, vehicles with plows, and maybe airstrikes if they can be precise and not destroy the ground rendering movement impossible. They are expected to blow the mines out of the way, and if they detonate them that's good. But not expected. So napalm could work if it was hot enough to ignite the fuses. Otherwise it would be very poor as it would not push the mines out of the way.
    I appreciate these discussions about the more modern state of mines and mine clearing, especially drones. My heart breaks to see the density of the minefields that are being laid. This will takes many years to clear and the cost to the locals will likely be extraordinary. Perhaps more and better automated mine clearing is the key, I feel like we have neglected this like many things as we thought these wars were a thing of the past.
  23. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russians tried to push off UKR troops from Pyatykhatky, throwing whole tank company in attack, but as one our account writes "now the road from Zherebynka to Pyatukahtky" turned out equivalent of Chornobaivka, because of "Stugna-P" teams and artilelry of 128th mountain-assault brigade destroyed most of enemy armor 
    On the video you can see Russian armor, moving from the south, from village Hrozove, passing through long hangars to the road fork. Tanks, which were hit were on the way to Pyatykatky

    Stugna-P team at work near Pyatykatky
    Video from the same location, with "hell rider" - burning Russian armor on full speed drives along the road from Hrozove and turns west deeper to Zherebyanky 
    Russian milbloggers about situation:
    In total. No any Piatikahtki was returned. Moreover, the enemy advaned further and already assaults Zherebyanki. All messages that Piatikhatki are turned back, turned out a fake.
    Where these Osetian "yeblans" [I can't translate this obscent word adequately :) ], who said they recaptured Piatilhatki?
     
  24. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hmmm....

  25. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That is ridiculous.  They are the point they need to bubble wrap a tank and build a barn roof on top of it.
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