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Panserjeger

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  1. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And what this gave to Russia in operative plan or strategical? 
    Consolidated... Effectiveness... Superiority... Meat assaults + KABs, well this tactic really can work, but the spring of the meat is gradually exhausting.
     
  2. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That's correct, although most of the 'corruption' -- which is widespread, let's not fool ourselves -- comes from 'persuading' those bureaucrats to turn a blind eye, allowing actual business (legitimate purpose or not) to get done. Stuff falls through the cracks all the time, we're understaffed, what can we do? (shrug)
    ...Basically, if you 'go through channels' the Crats will generally say NO, whether to play it safe, or cuz they can't be arsed (as they have no accountability for results), or in the hope of a payment being offered.
    So people stop asking permission and simply start creating their own channels. At that point though, everyone is a lawbreaker and can be convicted / extorted the moment Someone In Authority decides they are a Person of Interest.
    ...Too much Law, too rigidly enforced by too many folks, soon becomes indistinguishable from having no Law at all.
    None of this is special to Ukraine, btw. In my lived experience, Latin America is by far the worst at this, but high government places like Vietnam get pretty close.
  3. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I wonder is Budanov smiles now?
    Reportedly In Barentsev Sea "Admiral Levchenko" pr.1155 ASW-frigade (some media mistakingly named it as "destroyer") is on fire. Aleegedly because of engine failure.

  4. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yeah, this is first video allowed to publishing. Reportedly there were several successfull interceptions of Orlan-10 and ZALA. UKR UAV community already have some developments of fast FPV interceptors, but by known reasons information about this doesn't issue. Now works are directed to get at least "beta-version" of interception complex (detection, guidance, drone-interceptor) to unload SHORAD from most tasks of drone hunting.  
  5. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Maciej Zwolinski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Substitute "patriots and local elites" for the loaded term "nationalists"  and you would be right; that is the way every conquest happens. Eliminate those who care about the idea of their nation and those who have ambitions to lead in their community and the rest will follow whoever is the new tyrant just to save their lives and households. Then in a couple of generations an effective genocide may happen because that "majority" will be happy to speak Russian and take orders from the new governor appointed from Moscow, and they will be Ukrainians no more. That is the Russian way since the Middle Ages - probably the first victims were the Ugric tribes in the North, then various Turkic groups which just started to settle down South-East of Moscow in XVI century, and then the Russians went on their merry way from Vladivostok to Królewiec doing exactly the same thing.
    This is also exactly why some nations do not want to surrender and go on fighting - because that group of "nationalists" who care about more than the next meal is large enough to overcome the objections of the indifferent others.
    And on a more personal note - that "argument" is in essence an appeal to surrender to tyranny, based on cowardice, pusillanimity and stupidity. It made me actually (slightly) nauseous to read something so nakedly depraved 🤮.
     
  6. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Letter from Prague in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Modern CPUs have dedicated hardware for encryption, so that is not really a concern unless in very very constrained environments.
    When you watch a youtube video on a phone on a tablet, that video is going through at least two layers of encryption - your device's connection to your wifi or to mobile network is encrypted, and all connections between web browser or app and Google's servers are encrypted as well.
    That doesn't mean there aren't vulnerabilities, especially if the protocol designer is kind of a dummy, like in my favorite talk here: 
     
     
  7. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    wanna weaken Putin even more?  how about this kinda stuff?  
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/07/climate/battery-electricity-solar-california-texas.html
    California getting huge amount of its energy via solar in april and adding batteries to the mix starts to provide that ~free energy on-demand.  Imagine Putin w/o the petro money spigot.  The more big energy users that move away from fossil fuels, the smaller the market, the less money to the monster.
    For more good fun, imagine the loathsome saudis w/o petro money.  They would have nothing but dry, worthless sand.  
  8. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Assuming a straight translation, this cri de coeur was written by a starshina (senior NCO), so perhaps born around 1980?
    Say what you will about Russia sux, but.... I just can't imagine a US Army master sergeant of similar vintage (high school diploma late 1990s, maybe some college) being able to organise their thoughts in writing in this way.
    Compare the late Roman chronicler Ammianus (5th century AD):
    The affair caused more joy than fear and educated flatterers immoderately praised the good fortune of the [Emperor Valens], which unexpectedly brought him so many young recruits from the ends of the earth, that by the union of his own and foreign forces he would have an invincible army. In addition, instead of the levy of soldiers, which was contributed annually by each province, there 
    would accrue to the treasury a vast amount of gold.
    TL:DR  For all its dysfuntions, Russian civ clearly had some things far better to offer to the world than what they are showing now... a country where chess is a spectator sport. Those of us with Russian friends would agree with this, I suspect. (But no doubt foreigners with educated German friends thought some of the same bemused thoughts in 1941)
    ...I can't even begin to imagine the fury I would feel, were I a Russian, at the cynical throwing away by Putin and his mafiya of an entire generation that includes among the 'meat' many well-educated and motivated people.
  9. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The counter point to this is that Russia has somehow managed to survive as an inherently unstable imperial state (in its current size) for over 300 years. It has collapsed twice before but always has come back as an imperial state.  There are more than a few theories on how this keeps happening; my personal favourite is that Russia exists because geopolitically it has been rejected- not European, not Asian, not Persian. That rejection has become an identity in itself: Russia - the original punk-state.
    Regardless of how it happened, one has to admit Russia keeps going long after it should.  That quality appears baked into the culture and identity. I also think this war may likely break the current incarnation of the Russian state.  Pressures that have been set in motion may unite a people in the short term but will very well break it in the long term. Russia is very likely going to remain isolated from the West for a long time after this war.  It will also very likely be pulled into the Chinese power sphere - although that relationship has always been weird.
    Bur what is very important here is the speed of a Russian collapse.  A slow rattling decline is something we can manage.  A collapse that takes 20-30 years can be boxed up and contained.  When it hits the tipping point it will still seem dramatic but a slow motion collapse, much like the last one with the fall of the Soviet Union is always the preferred option.  It is the fast uncontrolled collapse that must be avoided.  A collapse without mitigations in place.  Too many unknowns, too much energy released too fast.  
    The strategic options spaces get far too stark and frankly untenable in this scenario.  We will very likely fail to make the brutal decisions required if Russia plummets suddenly. The result risks runaway mechanisms that could wind up making the entire region (if not the globe) much worse.  And there has been far too much hand waving on this point - “Ya,ya, whatever…but Ukraine!” This reality is why we are not conducting NATO airstrikes into Russia and putting western troops on the ground.
    So we take the slow road. Contain but fuel the conflict. Hoping Russia runs out of gas slowly. Hoping Putin will have a sudden “health crisis”.  It is often said in military circles that “hope is not an option”.  I always smirk at this one because historically it has very often been the only option.  We keep things rolling in the hopes a better option will emerge.  Hope is a child of uncertainty, and we are very uncertain right now.
  10. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Freedom ain’t free.  Someone has to stop Russia from doing what it is doing which is definitely not “perfectly fine”.  In reality the kid did not run away, his family did when he was 16.  Now that he is 18 and of age; he is “staying away”.  I think every citizen has a duty to protect their nation in times of crisis.  A duty to protect each other when threatened.  If they cannot or will not do that then they really are no longer a nation.  This is one thing I think we have lost, and it will come back and bite us.  There is a solemn duty in being a citizen, and even a greater one in a free nation.  It is one that takes sacrifice for the greater good.  Now this kid could be from a pacifist ideology or religion, ok there are a lot of ways to fulfill this duty to serve.
    What I disagree with is that is all fine for a young man like this to selfishly protect himself while his own people are suffering.  Running away to “embrace life” when Ukrainian children are dying back in Ukraine does not wash with me.  Personally I have been in two wars that really had not much to do with Canada.  We were really doing it for some greater global good (really did not turn out well in the end) but we all believed in it and honoured kids maybe a year older than this one who died in crappy places no one will remember in 50 years. The idea that one could “sit out” an atrocity like this invasion of Ukraine and still claim citizenship or ethnicity does not sit well with me at all.  It is shirking duty and letting others pay the price.   As we have discussed this kid does not even have to fight.  He can be in a support trade or work in industry or even humanitarian.  But his people and his country need him right now which is more important than how he gets to spend his twenties.  It is more important than him as an individual.  
    Mark my words on this, we have more of this coming.  The future is likely going to demand more sacrifice for the greater good not less.  We will have to stand or kneel in the end.  And right now to my eyes, that young man is kneeling.
  11. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to OldSarge in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's currently being reported that the House has passed the Ukraine aid deal 311-112.
    https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/house-vote-ukraine-israel-taiwan-aid-04-20-24/index.html
  12. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Mixed feelings. Congress version is stronger than Senate one (ATACAMS + Russian actives). But... How much thousands lives have gone, what economical damage was done, how much our lands were occupied until both political forces have been conducting own dirty pre-election games during these five-six months. All this could have been avoided if Senate agreed to continue lend-lease law. 
  13. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Oh, are we gay bashing?  Definitely the root of all our problems!  I thought it was jews but the insightful & informative views here have convinced me it's actually the gays.  Or is it the muslims?  I can't keep up on who is currently destroying western culture/society so thanks for all this information on things that really matter.  Why, in the US 20 years ago we were told how gay marriage would destroy america, and it certainly has!  
  14. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Hapless in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @dan/california Seen as though I was eyeballing it.

    Having to re-read it to edit this post down only makes it sound crazier.
  15. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's a form of greeting the spring for them. Russian soldiers leave their holes they lived all winter and simply cannot resists sending several own mechanized battalions into flames during these futile attacks. Some unconcious form of celebrating life rising everywhere around them probably. We have Eggs and Easter bunnies, they have crispy  tanks. I didn't read him lately, but I am sure Dugin has entire theory already of suicide attacks as expression of uniquely Russian unharnessed elaine vital.
    Check mate, cold-hearted Anglo-Saxons. You will never get it.
  16. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    But isn’t a “domestic” enemy someone whose position is forbidden?  There weren’t a lot of protections granted communists in the US back during the Cold War.  For example, if one was a firm communist they were not going to be employed within the defence department.  Roll forward to modern era, devoted fundamentalist Muslims did not fare much better.  This “freedom” concept really appears to be selective when viewed through a historic lens.  Sure, a US citizen can be free to express whatever they wish, but to do so without consequences from both private and public sectors has clearly been demonstrated as false.  Once a society allows for negative consequences as a result of free speech or association, it is no longer “free”.  This inconsistency appears migratory and frankly unfairly applied historically.  Try being a black civil rights movement in the 1930s in the South.  Not a whole lot of freedom of speech and association in that period for that demographic. LGBTQ in the 50s?
    So what, as it relates to this war and situation?  Within the US, and other modern democracies, I do not think this is a case of “autocratic control” but you are very correct in calling it out as a slippery slope.  I think it is a case of “when does speech and association become a threat to national security?”  When is it honest political discourse in an open and fair democracy, and when does it become too dangerous to tolerate?  Obviously sharing information on how to build and deploy a WMD should not be covered in “freedom of speech”.  Nor should sharing of classified information.  But when does political discourse cross that line?
    The US currently has elected officials who are pretty actively supporting a foreign powers agenda.  To the point that they are blocking military aid to an ally in the middle of an existential war.  At what point does this stop being “open and free political discourse” and become “paid foreign lies by a domestic enemy?”
    I honestly do not know.  I have watched my country wrestle with this.  I think our “hate speech” laws are in fact dangerous.  But clearly there is a point, even within free democracies where we cannot tolerate free expression.  For this war, where that line is drawn could very well impact its outcome and what the region looks like. 
  17. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Talk to the @SFHand.
  18. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    he emailed me to say he's sorry that I can't handle opposing opinions to my own.  Did he have an opposing opinion? 
    1.  provably false assertions don't really fall into what I would respect as an actual opinion, it's just parroting misinformation
    2. It was the usual passive aggressive troll thing where he ends w the old 'have a great day' 
    Classic troll narcissistic nonsense.  And no one here can really even make sense of what he is really saying.  
    Thanks @TheCaptain for handling this for us 😀
  19. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Some adequate people in Russia ask - well, you are Tajiks and just made bloody murdering. Your faces are on each police patrol, around the city activated plan of interception. And you... even not wearing other clothes, sit all four in the same car, on which you arrived to make the attack, keeping own passports with you and drive... no, not to Petrovskiy market area, where huge Central Asian migrants getto, where you can just lost for authorities. You drive to Ukraine - through huge Fridays's evening traffic jams on the exits from Moscow, you drive through all these checkpoints, police, SOBR, which already hunting for you, through Rosgvardiya posts on the roads in rears of Russian troops in Bryansk oblast, through deployments of troops, through zero-lline positions, minefields, drones in the air - so even is Ukrainian side "prepared a window", what other Russian forces would be doing? 
    And other comment form Russian social media - if you try to escape after terrorist attack to Bryansk oblast almost to Belarusian border and spend about 5 hours for this through Moscow Friday's evening traffic jams - immediatelly communicate with Formula-1, you will get a contract %)   
  20. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Czech Republic already supplied 300 000 artillery shells. This claimed Yan Lipavsky, minister of foreign afafirs of this country.
    In own turn Ukrainian representatives says this number will allow to close sharp deficite for next month and we hope further supplies will grow up. Ukraine now produce 122 mm and 152 mm ammunition and from second half of 2024 will launch produce of 155 mm shells
    Also WSJ claimed Ukraine month ago launched serial production of unnamed missile with 400 miles range. 
     
  21. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The story with 250 US M117 APCs, which US offered in the end of 2022, but it's turned out they need in repair, upgrade and additional arming with AGLs, so terms of delivering was shifted on 2025, at last came to finish. These APCs now arriving to Ukriane. First units, which got thm on armament became 425th separate assault battalion "Skala" ("Rock")
     
  22. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Homo_Ferricus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Thanks, Bill. I appreciate the resources you provided, and the context for the discharge petition. Took a moment to track down my rep (who hasn't signed) and rattled the windows a bit.
  23. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I mean these are fair points, and I am not in the "Yay us!" camp.  But frankly it is a small miracle that anything happened at all.  The West was woefully unprepared for this entire thing, and that is on us.
    As for Ukraine.  Well if we are dolling out harsh but fair truths, they definitely could have been better prepared as well.  If I were living next door to Russia, I would make damned sure I had security guarantees that matter (oh wait, I do and we did).  I would also be working very hard, like Finland and Sweden just did, to make sure if I needed a quick entry into the western fold that I was ready for that.  Corruption and dithering happened inside the Ukraine government as well.
    I think that no one on this side of this war was truly ready for what actually happened.  The West rallied and frankly pulled off the impossible, as did Ukraine - how quickly we forget the miracles of Mar '22.  I do not think it is fair to flush all that down the toilet now with revisionist history and hysteria.
    The West continues to support Ukraine.  Billions in aid are still moving.  The US is putting on a shameful display of just how fragile its democracy is right now, and ignorant power hungry politicians are exploiting it for personal gain.  But I remain confident that 1) Ukraine will adapt.  They are leading modern warfare right now and learning incredibly fast, 2) The US and West will eventually get there - democracy does suck at times, but it is the best we have, and 3) Russian decline is occurring as a direct result of #1 and #2.  Their ability to be a threat is declining in the conventional space.
    Hopefully this is a "darkest before dawn" situation and not the abyss that some insist it has become. 
  24. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I have never fully subscribed to "LOLZ Russia" or "Russia Sux".  Nor does a steady stream of one-sided war porn change that.  As to the second point: a major personal gripe on this forum is "Monster Russia!."  Undersubscribing Russia is as big a sin as oversubscribing Russia.  We have posters who need to continually take the worst case for Ukraine, and best case for Russia at every instance.  This is not healthy or useful, and as harmful as the overtly "LOLZ Russia" narratives
    I gotta be honest, I am astounded on what is still holding Russia together.  As I said, I re-visited Oryx after a long absence and for tanks and AFVs, Russia has lost 3x what Ukraine had as their entire fleets at the beginning of the war.  We have continually seen signs of Russian strain: lower quality equipment showing up at the front, conscription of excess human capacity, mass migration out of Russia, buying ammo from NK (FFS).  However, one has to simply shake ones head at the level of Russian obstinance in all this.  I am not sure how they are holding their military together right now based on these losses.  Further, the shock of this war on Russia cannot be understated.  Does anyone think Putin planned for all this?  That Russian society was ready for this?  No western nation would be ready for something like this war, the shock would cripple us.  Imagine if Iraq in '03 had turned into something like this war; it would have broken the West.
    So what?  Well first off, Russia clearly is not in great shape and their performance in this war compared to the advertising has fallen woefully short.  Russian resilience is high, I will give them that.  Yet we do not know where that breaking point is for them - further, they could have already crossed it...these sorts of things do not happen fast, until they do.  But...and it is a big "but", Russia does have a breaking point.  Every nation/society/human collective on earth has a breaking point.  Russia is not invincible and homogeneous.  Under enough stress it will fracture - economically, militarily and socially.  What we have is a competition of breaking points - ours, Ukraine and Russia's.  Our "breaking point" in the West (US in particular) is laughably low.  I suspect Ukraine's breaking point is further out than Russia's as of all the parties to this conflict, only Ukraine is facing direct existential crisis.  The question really is: can weak western will plus desperate Ukrainian will defeat Russian (??? metric ???) will?  One can immediately see the two major variables here.  Western will and Russian will are the two players on a Ukrainian fulcrum.  The location of that fulcrum depends on how much western support we provide to Ukraine.
    I stand by my position that militarily this war has already been won; however, that does not mean it cannot still be lost.  If the West totally fails Ukraine, Russia will take ground - it, in effect, expands Russian option spaces.  Russian airpower seems intent on flexing, perhaps eyeing air superiority again.  A complete withdrawal of US support is a strategic mistake of historic proportions.  It is essentially ceding a proxy war and Ukraine could enter the annals with Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan of lost US ventures.  The rest of the West will need to step up.  If Ukraine falters, as some have insisted, then the whole conversation is moot.  If the fulcrum shatters, there is no war.  The West will write it off to "bad investment" and re-draw the lines.
    The longer I watch this war, the more in awe of what the WW1 and WW2 generations went through.  We see those wars through the safe lens of history.  It is another thing entirely to be in the middle of one with the future unwritten.
  25. Like
    Panserjeger reacted to Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My former classmate shared his photos, it turns out he serves as a crew member of the Marder infantry fighting vehicle and is undergoing training in Germany
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