danfrodo

and China (and the world) have learned a very important lesson: Putin can not be trusted as a business partner. If you become dependent on what he has, he will use as a device for extortion. China might be fine getting some below market stuff, but would they ever make themselves dependent on Putin? I sure wouldn't

and chips are attached to specialized circuit boards w specialized circuits. And there's the firmware embedded in the systems so they talk to the software the russians put into the system. It's a whole big chain of stuff. Even once they get all this stuff made, it would be rushed and insanely unreliable.

Haiduk, I am very very very much hoping there were lots of artillery shells and rockets and delivery systems in this. I hope this helps your brave comrades at the front.

The problem w the Russian forces was that they were never expected to actually fight a war in Ukraine. The multi-pronged attack was supposed to cut the head off the national and oblast governments leading to collapse of Ukrainian resistance. Putin had assassination squads, paid-off traitors, airborne attack, seaborne attack, and the big armored columns. It all failed. It's like asking why Hitler didn't have enough resources to take both Stalingrad and the caucasus oil fields -- because he never thought he'd actually have to fight for those things -- the red army in the south was supposed to be defeated in envelopments and the army group would just drive to it's objectives and set a hard shoulder on the northern flank. Everything since day #3 or so of this war has been improvisation of Putin trying to salvage something from an epic, historical disaster. -- Like Steve said the other day, there was plan 1 - failed. Plan2 - failed. Now we're in plan 3.

please let this be true. Maybe Putin has brilliant idea - I'll attack where they least expect! Except that everyone can see any buildups. Yes, please drive 30km or so up this road. It's a lot easier to destroy things sitting on roads. Maybe RA will unhinge Kerson defenses all by themselves.

I've been thinking (and posting) for a while that this all smells like military planning done by a dictator. Classic not paying attention to basic military realities until denial becomes untenable. And now he simply makes it official, I guess.

I wonder if the logistics issues in the southern front are due to priorities. UKR knows where RA has massed and could actually make a serious advance. So maybe is pushing more supplies there at the expense of areas that while seeing combat are facing forces that don't have the mechanized mass to actually advance very far

We actually announced the visit date of two high ranking US officials? tell me we didn't do that. Meanwhile, Putin et al keep threatening Poland, Finland, et al, as per above posts. This is hilarious. It's like me threatening to beat up an NFL defensive lineman. "what out Aaron Donald, else I'm gonna F you up!". For you non-US football folks, Aaron Donald is, in strength and agility, the closest thing to a comic book superhero that actually exists.

Wow, what a busy day. I was in car all day and today I had huge amount of info to catch up on this morning. THANKS ALL. The drive really showed just how insanely long the Russian front really is. So Russian General Pyrrhus, of ancient Greek descent, continues to launch expensive attacks for little gain. And the gain is mainly due to huge expenditures of artillery, rounds which won't be available for the main show (if it actually will happen), though maybe that doesn't matter. Or maybe this is the main offensive. Russians burning conscription offices -- now that is a sign I really like. Draft riots, like level of 1863 New York City, would be great. Zelensky puts out statement that he's finally getting what he needs from the west -- an excellent sign. And like Dan/CA said above, hopefully we'll see all this in a UKR counteroffensive coming in a couple weeks or so. Mud drying up some w the warm/dry weather on the way. But can RA really deploy given the terrain between current front and Slovyansk? Looks like woods and swamps to me. Meanwhile, lots of folks in the media are counting BTGs like hitler placing empty divisions on maps in 1944-5. We have good evidence that only 1 of 3 of a regiment's BTGs were close to full strength as a matter of practice, w the other two ~50-60%. And that was to start the war. Now that most BTGs have taken losses, then they are all depleted. Yet folks keep counting these units as if they are 100% strength. They are probably something much less, 50-70%, and w thrown together people & commands so lacking cohesion. I wonder how strong all these BTGs really are.

Well, that was a very busy night for the forum: Steve confronted by a dimwit from DumFukistan (aka GlennBeckistan). SlySniper puts out some points about UKR (possible) weaknesses and a very good discussion follows, well done all of you. I'm driving from Oregon to Montana today to see college kid. Somewhere in Idaho I'll have passed the same distance as Russia's current front line. It's an INSANE distance, ~800km. And they can't possibly defend it. Especially once UKR receives more mobility (bushmasters, others) and artillery from the west. They can't man a continuous line w any strength, so there will be lots of platoon sized strongholds & outposts getting picked off day after day after day. And I am still of the opinion that I've had for a while -- these Russian 'probes' are the Great Patriotic Donbas Offensive. And it's going nowhere while burning up ammo, men, vehicles, and morale. I am also of the opinion that the war is being run by Putin and he needs results fast so he's doing like Stalin in 1941 -- attack attack attack immediately!!!! -- no matter how much it actually makes things worse. And France is in the game! Good job France. And sounds like some other countries, wisely, are keeping their support quiet while helping a lot. Germany seems to shamefully dither -- wtf? -- My ancestral homeland is an embarrassment right now (3 grandparents from Germany).

I think UA are facing very serious issues all over the place. Fortunately the issues aren't causing collapse while RA is grinding itself into the mud. (anyone ever read Joe Abercrombie? "back to the mud")

That all sounds pretty sound and plausible to me. It's fortunate that RA is (so far) unable to do anything about it. Nice summary of the issues UA probably facing. I think UA has taken terrible losses, but that it's been able to make those numbers good w very motivated replacements, though not usually as experienced as the losses. And they get to play mostly defense, which w ATGMs is easier relative to trying to attack, especially w the mud.

how long is that line? someone the other day said ~800km? So even at 100,000 soldiers that's not much strength. And Ukraine will be getting much stronger in the coming months. The water obstacle certainly helps in the west, but still a terribly long line if Ukraine decides to fight.

I think what we just saw was the Great Patriotic Offensive to Denatzify Donbas. But Putin didn't want to say that because he didn't want to have to backtrack when it failed. And for all the reasons outlined by Steve, Putin pushing a big offensive could end in things going really badly for him. Going w the prevailing opinions above, it will now come down to how Putin chooses to spin all this. Knowing that the majority of Russians are totally buried in state TV propaganda, he's got a lot of choices. He can pretty much make up whatever he wants to brainwashed people. In the US when a certain news outlet actually started telling the truth about the 2020 election, all the viewers fled to places that would continue to lie them -- they literally can't handle the truth (so news outlet reverted to lying, but hey, gotta keep the viewers). I think the same thing in a much more brainwashed Russia -- give them lies that keep their fantasy worldview afloat and all will be fine.

YES YES YES!!!!!!! I hope these can get there in time to help drive the orcs out of Rohan.

yeah, that makes sense. But RA will still be facing a mobile defense in depth, in good defensive terrain, w mud. A breakthrough seems like it would just mean they are coming up to the next obstacle. Even if they reach the two big cities there, would they have enough to take or even surround them? Well, I guess we're gonna find out

I am not sure I am buying this. They are depleting artillery & rocket stocks and taking losses and burning up supplies. All of these resources could be used en masse for an attack that might actually yield something operational. Instead they just have less to work with next week.

So now I am confused -- is Urgent Fury a mod pack or a BFC thing?? I'm a little slow and sometimes miss subtlety.

ahhh, the old "let's burn up all our artillery ammo and take heavy casualties and losses before our real offensive begins" strategy. Brilliant!! That Putin is a real genius. This whole thing does smell like a war run by a dictator who can't be questioned.

So...... when can I give y'all some money? I'm super slow these days getting battles done (work + sore mouse arm) but I still want more stuff!!

Any news from the front? Seems UKR keeping things quiet, maybe for OPSEC. I am betting that Russians are making no progress because if they were they'd be acting like it was the new Operation Bagration. And where every village taken is called a city, and every city a metropolis. The silence perhaps says much.

Absolutely terrifying. I love it. Give those Russian soldiers all the more impetus to flee. And for the collaborators.....

I've done this a number of times, even after playing of years. Dang it, where's my smoke fire mission????? -- oh, I turned it off earlier to see something and forgot to turn it back on.

either that or they have some personal dirt on Sholz and are extorting him. Either way, he is not the right person for this time of crisis -- that's me saying something nasty in a nice way. I wonder what this is doing to his popularity?

WTF is wrong w Sholz??? This is not a complex calculation. Give weapons. Russia has not retaliated against all the other countries that are helping. What's the hold up? Is Sholz in the pocket of business interests that would suffer in some way?