danfrodo

Like I've said before, this is all ignoring the fact that Putin was not preparing for war at all. He was preparing for a coup. If he thought he was gonna have a fight he wouldn't have crossed the border. His goals could not be achieved militarily but he was so in love w his KGB-style internal subversion and assassination squads he wasn't worried about that. He's not the only blind planner in modern history, paraphrasing below: Professor of modern middle eastern studies "what are you going to do when the shia and sunni start fighting each other?" Dick Cheney lacky: "We won't let that happen. Why would they want to fight each other anyway? It won't happen." (not picking on Bush here, he was sold a bill of goods. I don't think he's a bad guy, he just got conned. he should've stayed as CEO of the Texas Rangers baseball team -- a great gig for sure. I would way rather run a baseball team than be president)

this is what is real. If they don't want to end up dead in a field they should point their guns against their actual oppressors, meaning their officers and the officers above them all the way to the top. I would be sorry for them except that if they crossed that field and got into position they would've sooner or later been firing on Urkrainians. I am hoping for a mutiny that brings in the Kadyrovs to restore discipline and the mutiny grows to where the Kadyrovs are wiped out. Then the units involved just drive back to their own country. Yeah, I know it's a dream but it's a beautiful dream.

What will Ukraine do now? I grabbed this off dailykos, not sure where they picked it up. Purple rail lines all converging at Kupiansk. Would completely unhinge the whole sector. But would also expose UKR forces to counterattacks w/o being dug in. Maybe this is what UKR wants to do though. They don't want to slug it out, they want to unhinge, which they were very successful at in the Kyiv-NW & Brovary RU thrusts. They are already in position for unhinging the izyum salient. It'd be nice to cut off those forces so they can't come to the aid of Kupiansk. Or the smaller solution of gaining position to threaten Vovchansk, which greatly complicates RU supply but does not unhinge the front. On another note, there's a lot of talk about why Putler didn't do this or that w respect to military readiness. I think we need to understand this as a coup that was backed up by military force. It was, IMO, not a military operation w a coup sprinkled in for insurance. When looked at in this sense, everything falls more into place.

A colonel and two majors in recent posts. The amount of lost RU officers is getting pretty staggering. And this is just the KIAs, the WIAs who are out of action is probably several times higher. Upcoming, I see a mix of unwilling, angry, terrified conscripts plus underqualified ad hoc leadership plus very heavy pressure from above for results at all cost. Exactly what is needed for some mutinous behavior, which hopefully could spread.

what a night of posts, thanks all. SeinfeldRules, Steve, et al, knocking it out of the park w bases loaded. War definitely entering a new phase, where Russia is now responding to Ukrainian offensive threats. I keep worrying about stalemate then remember that 800km front. No way RU can hold that. I've seen multiple reports of front line soldiers complaining about lack of sufficient ammo & AT assets. So UKR has logistical issues also, though how could anyone not have logistical issues is such a huge conflict. Pundit land again freaking out over "19 BTGs near Belgorod -- another RU offensive?" -- yeah, that's very likely given, as Steve mentioned, these are mostly shattered formations. Telenko: he really loved his 15 minutes of fame w the tire scoop, now trying to capitalize on it. But why would i listen to him on artillery stuff? There's a lot of artillery experts here on this site already on the payroll.

whew, thanks for the update Huba. I was a little nervous after your initial post on this.

with each of these I keep projecting Hitler looking a map. "we'll counterattack here Mortain while the enemy is foolishly sweeping unhindered behind our lines!". But maybe Putin is calling the shots, and thinks UA is weak in those areas, or he thinks he can do this a some kind of feint/spoiling attack. It doesn't have to make military sense, it's all desperation at this point.

Can't wait to see what I wake up to Monday morning, pacific time. Shoving a bunch of press-ganged soldiers into the lines could go either way, I'm w Steve on this. Yeah, you got more bodies, but they are also more likely to make the herd stampede to the rear under fire. What's Russian word for 'fragging'? Ukrainian artillery should soon be plentiful enough to make anyone want to run. And the airpower that Machor's videos showed -- seems like Ukraine has been holding back assets for a special surprise party, perhaps?

thanks for the excellent posts, Machor. I appreciate it.

Seems like in a number of countries Putin is getting some payback. He's been funding & inciting efforts to undermine political systems in every democracy available, and now those govt's have a way to punch back. "how you like me now, Putin?"

the branches don't stand a chance. what horse--s--t. he'll be looking pretty stupid pretty soon when he's actually facing UKR forces.

Wow, this is really gonna mess up the CMBS:2022 OOB. Have to import all the Fire & Rubble weapons for the conscripts. What a mess. Meanwhile: I wonder if that RU Izyum salient is really as precarious as this map suggests. I wonder how big the forces are in there. Hopefully Putler is telling them "keep advancing, ignore the flanks!".

Yes, let's all (ME included) get the best Ukraine war discussion back on track. WW2 does not matter here. Racial politics don't matter here. So, anyone got any updates from the war? Villages taken/lost? More war videos w epic slavic-rock?

So now the Irish have invaded?? btw MSBoxer, your taglines are hilarious

thanks Hapless. The plot thickens. So I guess the big question is whether mobilization is a bigger danger to Ukraine or to Putin? I am thinking Putin but time will tell. Mobilization would definitely fit into the idea that Putin will just dig in to whatever terrain he can and hope to wear out Ukraine.

this picture is not "full context for foreigners". That is a an extreme outlier of a picture. It's like "jews for Hitler". That is so misleading as to be a complete lie. The 1 out of 10,000 exception is shown and we are meant to conclude the utterly, ridiculous "see, even the black folks loooooove the confederacy!" ASL Veteran, you should ashamed of trying to pass this off as informative.

oh yeah, remembering why I blocked bornginger. Life better this way.

Huba, you da man! You have great info, and this one might be one of your best scoops. So will Putin actually announce this tomorrow? Gonna be an interesting monday. I am still hoping he gets the same nice parade performance that was received by Anwar Sadat.

I wonder whether the final fall of Popasna matters all that much. It's been destroyed and it seems UKR forces simply pulled back a short distance to their next line. RU forces paid very high price for not much gain from what I can see. And it took them weeks of fighting and huge artillery expenditure for a few kilometers of shredded ground. I guess we'll know how much this matters over next few days.

so.............maps? who's found updated maps? I am dying to see if there's any progress.

whoa, that is yet another terrible day for RU. 7 MLRS? I like that! and 400 killed is a pretty bad day even by RU standards. I wonder if any other artillery was lost, I hope so.

deleted

Can you just please stop? I don't want to block you because you so often have something interesting to say. We are nearly all military history buffs here, we KNOW. Hitler's forces committed horrible atrocities and so did Stalin's forces (before and after WW2 in Stalin's case). We KNOW. I am not trying to disagree or diminish with what you are saying, it's true. But we all already know all of this. So maybe start a new "Germans vs Soviets vs US-Brits, who was more evil" thread? You guys can go at it all day & night. So, does anyone have any updated maps of Ukraine war? My usual site is not posted yet. Any news?

And who says RU is going to have sufficient arty tubes to defend all the weak spots in their ~800km front? If I am UKR one of my highest priorities is destroying RU artillery using the nice toys they are receiving. RU can probably replace the towed guns pretty easily, but destroyed tubes usually have destroyed crews. So both number and effectiveness of RU artillery would hopefully decrease significantly.

Interesting night of posts from y'all, just got caught up. I don't post anything until I've reviewed them all, which took a while this morning. My takeaways: 1. Yet more utterly pointless discussions of "who was worse", Hitler or Stalin. Please, just stop. It's about as useful as arguing Superman vs Dr Strange (note, when I die and go to hell, these gawd awful superhero movies will be playing non stop, I am sure, which will be infinitely more punishing to me than burning in an eternal lake of fire) 2. Amazing footage of UKR drone hitting RU Mi8, squad of bad guys obliterated also. 3. Ukraine must have quite a thriving music industry. All the videos have this epic, super cool music that's a mix of metal, hip hop and traditional -- I'm assuming they are all singing in Ukrainian? 4. Not much news today on the front, though hoping more will filter in over (my) day. Looks like Kharkiv offensive picking off a few more villiages. And in the south the russians attacked for some pointless reason and are reported to have lost ~300 casualties in a defeat. 5. From Huba's post above quoting UKR general staff: I think the west should send hundreds of millions of dollars of aid to RU. In the form of hard alcohol. 6. We saw an interesting post comparing first aid kits of RU & UKR soldiers, w UKR looking much better equiped. The RU kit didn't even have ivermectin, no wonder RU readiness is low.